Barreto was the highest rated international free agent in 2012, and agreed to terms with the Blue Jays on July 2nd (Photo by Alexander Mendoza)

Name: Franklin Barreto

Position: Shortstop

Date of Birth: March 1996

Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent in July 2012 ($1,450,000 USD)

High School: N/A

College: N/A

Height/Weight: 5’9”/175 lbs

Bats/Throws: R/R

Awards and Accomplishments:

• Ranked by Baseball America as the #1 International Free Agent (July 2012)
• MVP of Pan-American 14U Championship (July 2010)
• MVP of Pan-American 12U tournament (September 2008)
• Corporacion Criolltos Venezuelan Athlete of the Year (2008)

2012 Statistics and Analysis

As with all 16 year old International Free Agents, Barreto’s professional contract was for the 2013 season, so his action with the Blue Jays was limited to the fall instructional league – where he seldom suited up for actual games.

Scouting Report

Video (via MLB Advanced Media)

Swing Mechanics

Barreto stands at the plate with a narrow base, and Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs – who watched him work in the fall instructs – describes him as having occasional awkwardness to his swing, but attributes that to the ongoing physical development of the 16 year old. Ben Badler of Baseball America saw Barreto extensively in the months leading up to July 2nd, and was impressed with his quick hands and short, compact stroke. Barreto recognizes pitches well, works deep into counts, but avoids the strikeout thanks to his inherent ability to make contact and put the ball in play. His sound approach and quick swing allow him to smash line drives all over the field.

Tools Breakdown

Franklin Barreto is a dual threat offensively, as his bat and raw speed allow him to be a dynamic weapon both at the plate and on the bases. Speed is at a premium for the young Venezuelan, as both Badler at McDaniel threw out 70 grades on the tool. McDaniel timed Barreto at 3.75 seconds to first on a bunt, which is exceptional for a right handed hitter. He will likely lose some speed as he moves into his twenties, but the potential is there for 40 or more stolen bases. The hitting mechanics I detailed above have allowed for scouts to throw 60’s on Barreto’s hit tool potential. His exceptional speed should allow him to maintain a healthy and above average BABIP, and Badler suggests the combination of the two tools could result in a .300 hitter.

The most frequently discussed negative aspect of Barreto’s game is his size – or lack thereof. He stands just 5-foot-9, and despite weighing only 175 pounds, Badler describes him as strong and physically mature already. That isn’t to say he won’t get bigger – he has yet to turn 17 – but the probability of him growing another three or four inches and packing on twenty pounds of muscle is highly doubtful. This has an impact on his power projection, as Barreto will have to rely more on his swing than his body to generate home runs. Even so, both Badler and McDaniel believe he could develop average power due in large part to his line drive tendencies, and any team would happily take 15 to 20 home runs from an up-the-middle position.

Barreto signed as a shortstop, and the Blue Jays will give him every opportunity to maximize his value and stick there, but you can probably count the number of 5-foot-9 starting shortstops in the major leagues on one hand; I’m not going to go through them all, but the only two I can think of are Rafael Furcal and Jimmy Rollins. Working against him even further is what Badler and McDaniel describe as “questionable footwork and defensive actions”. McDaniel has an excellent line regarding his size and the viability of remaining at shortstop; “Given Barreto’s age, there are a lot of things that can go wrong, so you have to assume he isn’t the exception to the rule.”

If he can’t remain at shortstop, second base and center field are the next best options. His 60 arm and 70 speed would allow him to develop into a very good defensive center fielder, and Baseball America has frequently offered up a Shane Victorino comp if such a move occurs. For second base to be a realistic, Barreto would still need to greatly improve his footwork – as well as get used to having his back to the infield when turning a double play – but the overall defensive demands are lower than that of shortstop. If he sticks in the middle infield, Baseball America has tossed a Rafael Furcal (with less defense) comp on his ceiling. For Blue Jays fans, either outcome would be outstanding.

Projection

The perfect world projection for Franklin Barreto would be an everyday shortstop who hits at the top of the lineup; first division starter.

2013 Outlook, Risk, and ETA

When a 16 year old is signed on July 2nd, it’s usually just accepted that the best case scenario for a debut is the complex league. Often times they don’t even reach that point, as the DSL – the Dominican Summer League – is viewed as less of a culture shock to the prospect. That may not be the case with Barreto, as it’s already been suggested that he could open the season with Bluefield thanks to his extremely advanced bat skills. Without a doubt it would be a big adjustment, but there’s something to be said for challenging prospects as opposed to letting them rake at a level far too easy for them. The risk attached to a 16 year old with no professional experience is astronomical, and trying to determine even a rough ETA is a futile task at this point. If I had to guess I’d say 2017, but in reality it could be anywhere between 2016 and 2020, if he even makes it to Toronto at all.

In terms of page views and feedback (both positive and negative, but thankfully mostly the former), the series was one of the most popular things I’ve done in my two-ish years of writing about the Blue Jays. As such, I’ve decided to break down the system once again, and hopefully another year of experience and knowledge will make the list that much more thorough and interesting to the readers.

The third part of the series will look at the middle infield positions. I have combined second base and shortstop, as most “second base prospects” are simply shortstop prospects who couldn’t handle the defensive demands in professional baseball. Fielding ability is the most important tool for a middle infielder, as Baseball America ranks it as the top priority for shortstops, and number two priority for second basemen. Arm strength is obviously supremely important for shortstops, ranking as second priority. On the other hand, second basemen make the shortest throws of any position, so arm strength is their least important tool. As second basemen are usually failed defensive shortstops, their offensive game needs to be a notch above. The hit tool is the highest priority, with power ranking third. Quickness is more important than raw speed, grading out as the second least important tool for both positions.

• Top middle infield prospect to reach MLB (last 5 years): Adeiny Hechavarria
• Middle Infielders in 2012 Top 30: 2
• Middle Infield WAR leaders in MLB (last 5 years): Aaron Hill (4.9), Marco Scutaro (7.4)

The King in the North

Adeiny Hechavarria – 2012 team(s): Triple-A Las Vegas, Toronto
(AAA) 443 AB, .312/.363/.424 (.788 OPS), 20 2B, 6 3B, 6 HR, 63 RBI, 8 SB, 38/86 BB/K
(MLB) 126 AB, .254/.280/.365 (.645 OPS), 8 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 0 SB, 4/32 BB/K

Aug 14, 2012; Toronto, ON, Canada; Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Adeiny Hechavarria (3) bats against the Chicago White Sox at the Rogers Centre. The White Sox beat the Blue Jays 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-US PRESSWIRE

Adeiny Hechavarria is the best middle infield prospect Toronto has developed since Aaron Hill, but that speaks more about the barren wasteland J.P. Ricciardi had for a farm system than his pure talent. The Cuban signed a four year Major-League deal back in April of 2010, and with 10 million in total value, he’s the most expensive International acquisition in Blue Jays history. Before players like Alex Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra, and the Derek Jeter revolutionized the position in the mid-to-late 1990’s, the shortstop’s top priority was run prevention, not run generation. Things have changed, as while defense is still important, shortstops are now expected to carry some weight on the offensive side as well. Adeiny Hechavarria has more in common with the shortstops of old, and his ultimate value will depend upon how well he can modernize his offensive game.

As Blue Jays fans saw over the final two months of the 2012 season, there is a bit of offensive potential to dream on. At the plate, Hechavarria looks like a capable hitter. His stance is very simple and calm, with his front side bordering on closed. He holds his hands low, as his swing is more conducive to line drives than shear power, and he wants to be as quick to the ball as possible. When Hechavarria swings, he quickly pulls his hands through the zone with good bat speed and just the slightest of uppercuts. It’s a significantly different swing than what we saw in the past, as Las Vegas 51s hitting coach Chad Mottola worked wonders with him this season. Previously, Hechavarria was wild and overaggressive at the plate, creating a long swing path with way too many exposable holes. He can still be a bit undisciplined, but his approach is further along than I had expected. His power potential isn’t enormous by any means, but 10-12 home runs annually aren’t out of the question.

Throughout his minor league career, Hechavarria had played 332 games at shortstop and just eight at second base. Despite this, in his 41 games in Toronto, he received only 13 starts at his natural position. It was five fewer starts than he received at third base, where he had never previously played in his career. To top it off, he sprinkled in another eight starts at second base for the Blue Jays. His raw defensive ability was resoundingly clear, as regardless of position his actions were smooth, his reactions were quick, and his throws were strong and accurate. Hechavarria’s footwork is exceptional, as his first step almost always seems to be the correct one. Even when he makes a mistake, his athleticism usually allows him to recover in time to make the play. His best position was shortstop, and he proved surprisingly strong at third base (though his bat would never work there). Some issues crept up at second base, however. On plays that required him to turn his back to the play – usually setting up double plays – he got a bit backwards and his footwork often led to either inaccurate or mistimed throws. It could be a concern if the Blue Jays expect him to play second base in more than a pinch.

His immediate future is a bit clouded, as while second base is likely to have an opening next season after Kelly Johnson’s departure, both his presently below average offense and footwork problems make that an imperfect fit. Hechavarria is much better suited for shortstop, but that would require Yunel Escobar to be elsewhere. Given how busy this coming offseason is likely to be, that’s well within the realm of possibility, but is anything but a guarantee. If things don’t play out in his favor, he’ll likely start the year down in Triple-A Buffalo, waiting for the call.

On the Rise

Christian Lopes – 2012 team(s): Rookie-Bluefield, Low-A Vancouver
223 AB, .278/.339/.462 (.801 OPS), 17 2B, 6 3B, 4 HR, 33 RBI, 6 SB, 17/40 BB/K

Christian Lopes playing for Team USA (Image via MLBDraftCountdown.wordpress.com)

Had Hechavarria played a few more games and lost his rookie (and therefore prospect) eligibility, Christian Lopes would have been the top dog in the middle infield category. As it stands, he’s only a step or two behind anyways. Lopes came from the 2011 draft, and like Matt Dean on the corner infield primer, he was paid a bonus well above the number suggested by the Commissioner’s office for his slot. A seventh round pick, Lopes received 800 thousand dollars to forgo his scholarship to USC and join the Blue Jays organization. He was signed on deadline day, and as such his professional debut was delayed until this past summer. On a Bluefield squad riddled with top prospects, Lopes took off and began separating himself from the pack.

Lopes was drafted as a shortstop, but the Blue Jays have already shifted him over to second base almost full time. Of his 58 games played, 43 came at second base. He still played in ten games at shortstop and another five at designated hitter, but it’s resoundingly clear where his future lies. The reasoning behind the move is that, despite a very normal sounding build at 6-feet and 185 pounds, Lopes is left a bit wanting in the athleticism department. He has some quickness, but his raw speed is below average leading to sub-par range. Furthermore, his arm strength is a very iffy tool as well. You can get away with that at the high school level, but in professional baseball, that’s simply not going to cut it at shortstop.

Fortunately, his bat is more than playable at second base, and is the main reason some draft experts thought he could go as high as the first round prior to a disappointing senior season at Edison High School. Lopes faces the pitcher with a very open stance, allowing him to track pitches well as they approach the zone. He’s very quiet at the plate, holding his hands low before gearing up for the swing. He double taps his front foot – something that may eventually need to be cleaned up – before striding and spinning his hips with nice weight transfer. Lopes has excellent bat speed, and despite only just turning 20 he has a very mature plate approach. He works the count, has a good two-strike approach, and isn’t afraid to use the opposite field if the pitch dictates doing so. The power should continue to develop as he matures physically, with the potential for 30+ doubles and 15+ home runs over a full season being very reasonable expectations.

He only played 10 games for Vancouver at the end of the 2012 season, but I’d be a little surprised if Lopes wasn’t pushed to full season ball with Lansing in 2013. The Midwest League can be a rough environment in which to hit, but Lopes has the bat skills to handle such an assignment. Another year in short season ball would be wasted development time. There are no strong middle infield prospects in the levels directly ahead of him, so the speed at which he advances is fully dependent upon his performance.

The Question Mark

Dickie Thon Jr – 2012 team: Rookie-Bluefield
149 AB, .221/.331/.309 (.640 OPS), 5 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 7 SB, 19/34 BB/K

Dickie Thon Jr at minor league camp during the spring of 2012 (Photo credit: John Lott of The National Post)

Ever since the Blue Jays selected Thon in the fifth round of the 2010 draft, his career has been a tumultuous one. Shortly after the draft, rumors surfaced that Richard Thon, Dickie’s father, was hoping to see his son selected by his former team, the Houston Astros. Furthermore, not only did he involve himself in the negotiations a little more than he likely should have, but he also made some aspects of their discussions open to the public when they should have been kept behind closed doors. Hurt feelings were prevalent, as apparently the Thon family was expecting Dickie to go higher than the fifth round. Leading up to the signing deadline it looked unlikely a deal would get done, but the team managed to find a way to get him under contract; an agreement that would include a hefty 1.5 million dollar signing bonus. That kind of money was usually reserved for mid first round picks, so one can quickly surmise just how highly the organization thought of the Puerto Rican high school player. Despite the hype he had a shaky 2011 debut, which was particularly surprising given the conservative Gulf Coast League assignment. Thon’s walk rate and athleticism were impressive, but his contact and power generating abilities were less than stellar. Some of that could be blamed on health, as a blood disorder during the spring sapped him of much of his strength. Questions about his long term future are really beginning to creep in after yet another rough showing for Bluefield in 2012.

Thon’s best trait is his athleticism, which is evident just by looking at him. Everything he does is smooth. His stance at the plate is relaxed, with his feet shoulder width apart and his front side slightly open. When Thon swings, he drops his front shoulder, strides forward, and follows through with a controlled swing designed for line drives. He has quick hands and a great eye at the plate, which makes his offensive struggles mind boggling. Thon is more fundamental than flash on defense, but has proved more than capable of handling shortstop at the professional level thanks to soft hands and good footwork. His arm is on the iffy side, but is not a liability. Thon’s struggles this season have really blurred his future, as while a .640 OPS doesn’t scream promotion, is a third year in short season ball (after he didn’t play in his draft year) really the best move? If the Blue Jays still think he’s a legitimate prospect, they’re almost forced to see if he’ll sink or swim in Lansing.

Remember the Name(s)

Franklin Barreto – 2012 team: N/A

Barreto was the highest rated international free agent in 2012, and agreed to terms with the Blue Jays on July 2nd (Photo by Alexander Mendoza)

Not only was Franklin Barreto the Blue Jays top acquisition during the 2012 International Free Agency period, he was the best player available according to expert Ben Badler of Baseball America (though some may reconsider that if Jairo Beras were brought into consideration). Toronto had reportedly been sniffing around Barreto for a long time, and once the signing period officially opened on July 2nd, they wasted no time in getting their man. The 16 year old was signed out of Venezuela for 1.45 million dollars, taking up a significant portion of the Blue Jays 2.9 million dollar IFA pool as per Major League Baseball’s new amateur talent regulations. Barreto has been in the spotlight for years, as his international tournament career began at the age of 10, and he’s won MVP after MVP in various 12-and-under and 14-and-under events over the years. Now that he’s officially under contract, the Blue Jays are hoping he can carry over that success into professional baseball in 2013.

Barreto is a shortstop now, but his long term future may be second base or in center field. It’s not due to lack of speed or arm strength, as he’s exceptional and solid in the two categories respectively. The problem lies with his defensive actions. Unlike Hechavarria and Thon, Barreto’s a bit rough at shortstop. His footwork and first step aren’t efficient, which creates problems even plus speed can’t make up for. Still, at just 16 years of age, there’s plenty of time for him to work things out. Fortunately, he has more than enough offensive game to be a legitimate prospect at second base or center field if such a move is inevitably required. Barreto has quick hands with a short swing and excellent pitch recognition, and could develop into an above average hitter with solid power potential. He’s an advanced enough hitter that I expect the Blue Jays will start him off in the Gulf Coast League next season, with the possibility of a late season promotion to Bluefield or Vancouver within the realm of possibility.

Dawel Lugo – 2012 team: GCL Blue Jays
170 AB, .224/.275/.329 (.604 OPS), 2 2B, 5 3B, 2 HR, 20 RBI, 5 SB, 7/25 BB/K

Dawel Lugo playing in the Dominican Republic (Image via DPLBaseball.com)

Dawel Lugo is yet another prospect who joined the organization through International Free Agency. He was a part of the rich – both in terms of talent and money – 2011 crop, the final period that, for all intents and purposes, was unregulated. Lugo received a 1.3 million dollar contract, which fell just short of Roberto Osuna for the highest bonus given to a Blue Jays acquisition that summer. Signed out of the Dominican Republic, the now 17 year old Lugo made his professional debut stateside in 2012. It’s a bit surprising, as often times Latin players so young will spend a season in the Dominican Summer League, getting adjusted to the professional regime while remaining in a culture they’re comfortable in. Instead, Lugo skipped the DSL altogether and was assigned directly to the Gulf Coast League in Florida. His statistics were modest, but little weight should be placed upon complex league numbers by such a young player, particularly in Lugo’s circumstances.

Lugo is in a similar position to Barreto in that while he’s currently playing shortstop, he’s very, very raw at the position. His arm strength is a huge asset to him, so if does eventually slide down the defensive spectrum, third base is a legitimate option. He was signed for his bat, however, and has the offensive potential to be an above average regular at third base if not a star at shortstop. Obviously that’s a long ways off and the uncertainty is tremendous, but he has the type of swing scouts love. His hands are lightning fast, and his plate coverage is off the charts. That often works against him, however, as he’ll swing at pitches he really shouldn’t because he knows he can put them in play anyways. As he matures as a baseball player and gets further exposed to North American coaching, that aggressiveness should be reeled back, allowing his contact ability to really shine. Lugo has power potential as well, as he already has a strong 6-foot-1, 185 pound frame at just 17 years old. Depending upon how he looks in extended spring training, Lugo could wind up at either Bluefield or the Gulf Coast next summer. As with every big name International Free Agent there’s a ton of risk, but he’ll be a name to remember next year and beyond.

The Blue Jays have a very strong foothold in the international market, but their results have yet to come to fruition in the top prospect atmosphere. The main culprit behind this is that the team is just finishing up its third signing period under Alex Anthopolous and his staff, and the philosophy was far different under the previous regime (i.e. it barely existed). Even so, of my top 30 Blue Jays prospects entering the season, five were signed as international free agents, most notably right handed pitcher Adonys Cardona, who I ranked 11th in the system.

The low minors are quickly filling up with potential elite talents, however, as alongside Cardona the team has brought in Santiago Nessy and Roberto Osuna, both of whom should easily rank within the top 30 when I revise my rankings in the offseason. On the outside looking in, at least for now, are Dawel Lugo, Gabriel Cenas, Wuilmer Becerra, and Jesus Gonzalez.

For Toronto, the 2012 international signing period was different for a pair of reasons. The first, and most glaring, is that the new Collective Bargaining Agreement put a cap on spending, with each team having a bonus pool of only 2.9 million to spend on players. In future years that number will vary from team to team, but with the rules only now going into effect, all teams are on a level playing field. Toronto had committed serious money into Latin America in previous years, so this cap had a substantial impact on how they approached July 2nd. Second of all, last November, the Chicago White Sox hired the Blue Jays former Director of Latin America Operations Marco Paddy to be a special assistant to Kenny Williams. Paddy held that position in Toronto for five years, and was responsible for the acquisition of all the players mentioned above, as well as Major League pitcher Henderson Alvarez. Losing Paddy was obviously a significant loss for the team, and to replace him they looked towards the Mets and hired Ismael Cruz, who now acts as a Special Assistant to Alex Anthopolous and Director of Latin American Operations.

Teams with thin systems may employ a strategy which would see them sign six or seven international free agents who project as major league regulars. Toronto on the other hand, has the deepest farm system in baseball, so star power is what the team went looking for on July 2nd.

Barreto was the highest rated international free agent in 2012, and agreed to terms with the Blue Jays on July 2nd (Photo by Alexander Mendoza)

The Blue Jays quickly achieved that goal, as they came to an agreement with Baseball America’s top ranked July 2nd eligible player, Venezuelan shortstop Franklin Barreto. The expected dollar figure on Barreto was around the 2 million mark, but considering who else the Blue Jays managed to sign, it appears as though they got a very good deal. The number will eventually get released, but Ben Badler of Baseball America expects the figure to be in the range of 1.3 million.

Barreto is currently a shortstop, and it’s likely the Blue Jays will give him every opportunity to stay there, but the industry vibe is that a move to centerfield or second base awaits him down the line. Thanks to his plus-plus speed range isn’t an issue, nor is his arm which grades out as solid average from the left side of the infield. The main problem is that his defensive actions and footwork aren’t as smooth as you’d like to see from a shortstop. His best offensive tool is his bat, which is a strange thing to hear about a Latin American player. He is described as having quick hands with a short swing and excellent pitch recognition. Baseball America suggests Baretto has the potential to be a plus hitter when he develops, with decent power to go along with it. With such developed offensive tools, Barreto may only require one year of short season ball. He stands 5-foot-9 and weighs 175 pounds, but with a fairly strong and mature frame there are some doubts about how much physical projection exists here. Barreto’s ceiling is compared to Rafael Furcal or Shane Victorino, both of which would be excellent outcomes.

Also in Venezuela, which appears to have become Toronto’s favorite location for acquiring talent, the Blue Jays signed a shortstop named Luis Castro, who ranked 9th on Baseball America’s top 20 list. As per team policy, the financial details have yet to be released. Like Barreto, a position shift appears in the cards for Castro. His arm strength is solid and his hands are quick, but he’s an average runner at the best of times and is likely to continue to slow as he gets older. Third base is the most logical destination, but second base or catcher have been deemed viable alternatives. Offensively, Castro has a sound plate approach, showing strike zone awareness and the ability to use all fields. When combined with his bat speed, he has the potential to hit for average. His power is currently limited to the gaps, but as he matures, Castro could start pushing balls over the fence.

The third member of Baseball America’s top 20 to sign with the Blue Jays is Richard Urena, a shortstop from the Dominican Republic. Urena, a left handed bat, ranked 13th on the list. While Barreto and Castro are destined for new positions down the line, Urena is a true shortstop and should have no issues remaining at the position. He has plenty of arm strength for the left side of the infield and his defensive actions are quick and smooth, aided by excellent baseball instincts. Urena’s offensive ceiling is limited due to his power, which is below average at present without a ton of projection. His bat is capable and his approach steady, and while those skills should work just fine in the lower levels, the same can’t be said for the upper minors which limits his ultimate ceiling.

When these international free agents sign with teams, the contracts are for the 2013 season, so while the players can attend camps and scrimmages the work out at the team complex, they can’t enter official games until next season. Castro should be assigned to the GCL and Urena to the DSL next year, but as I mentioned, Barreto is advanced enough he could play anywhere from the Gulf Coast League to Vancouver in his first year, followed by Lansing in 2014. Of the three major signings, Barreto is the only one with a chance at placing amongst the team’s top 30 prospects in the offseason, with a ranking in the 20’s seeming logical. That’s not a slight against the talent at all, the players are simply too far away and the system too rich in talent. For many international free agents you don’t know what you have until they’re 19 or 20 years old, but when they pan out, the risk of many is well worth the reward of one.