May 23, 2013; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz (34) celebrates after hitting a home run off Cleveland Indians pitcher Zach McAllister (not pictured) during the third inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

It was still going to be the hardest division in baseball but it was going to be easier than most years.

The Yankees were aging which is people’s excuse for why they’re going to fall off every season but this season they also had a ton of injuries to their stars.

The cash strapped Rays lost big impact players James Shields and BJ Upton.

Too much beer and chicken in the clubhouse was catching up to the Red Sox as they were coming off a 93 loss season.

The Orioles were considered lucky by many people last season because they finished the season with an unimpressive +7 run differential and had an unheard of 29-9 record in 1 run games and went 16-2 in extra innings.

Well surprise surprise the toughest division in baseball is just that again this year.

The Blue Jays won their 20th game of the season yesterday. In most sports you win 20 games after a month and a half you’d be darn near undefeated, in baseball not so much.

The Jays are the last team in the division to get to 20 wins. In fact they’re the only last place team in baseball to have 20 wins! The AL East is the only division with 4 teams with a winning record.

The Red Sox won their 20th game May 2nd. Baltimore got theirs May 7th. Yankees got theirs May 9th. The Rays got theirs May 14th.

As a Jays fan that seems depressing at first because it took the Jays until May 23rd. Until you realize that the rest of the division sit at 24- 28 wins right now so they’ve all slowed down enough to give the Jays a small chance to catch up. Or at the very least no one is quite running away with the division.

We all knew even if the rest of the division was going to be a weaker this season which is hasn’t been it was going to be a dog fight. And it’s proven to be just that.

May 18, 2013; Bronx, NY, USA; New York Yankees designated hitter Travis Hafner (33) rounds the bases past Toronto Blue Jays relief pitcher Darren Oliver (38) after hitting a two-run home run during the eighth inning at Yankee Stadium. Yankees win 7-2. Mandatory Credit: Debby Wong-USA TODAY Sports

The pitcher himself was a bit more candid.

“It’s sore enough to where I can’t go out there and play,” he said, adding: “I’ve pitched through it a few times. Maybe I’m just getting old, who knows.”

Oliver also expanded on the injury a bit, saying that he has been dealing with it for a week to 10 days, and that he may be facing a stint on the disabled list if it does not improve quickly.

Oliver is coming off of a solid 2012 season in which he continued to defy father time, posting a stellar 2.06 ERA and a solid 8.3 K/9 ratio over 62 appearances and 56.2 innings pitched.

However, 2013 has not been quite as friendly. While the 42-year-old has been more than serviceable, he currently holds a 3.18 ERA and a 5.8 K/9 ratio over 17 innings this season. In his last two outings, he has surrendered 3 runs (2 earned), but struck out 5 in the process.

With the Blue Jays needing to make a roster move prior to Friday’s game, when rookie Sean Nolin is scheduled to be called up to start. The thought right now is that Ramon Ortiz will be designated for assignment, but Toronto could avoid that by adding Ortiz to the bullpen and placing Oliver on the disabled list.

Buffalo Bisons (26-19)

The Bisons dropped another game to the powerhouse Indianapolis Indians (farm club for the Pittsburgh Pirates) on Thursday 7-3. The Indians got all their offense off of Buffalo starter Justin Germano who took the loss and hasn’t won a game since returning from the Blue Jays at the beginning of May. In his first Triple-A game in 2013, outfielder Ricardo Nanita hit a home run while catcher Josh Thole, who continues to hit well, went two for four with his fifth home run of the season. Shortstop Ryan Goins also contributed with a pair of doubles.

Roster Note: Josh Johnson will make a rehab start for the Buffalos on Saturday and pitcher Miguel Batista was released by the Bisons. Jeremy Jeffress was also placed on the disabled list.

June 24, 2012; Flushing, NY, USA; New York Mets relief pitcher Miguel Batista (47) pitches against the New York Yankees during the eighth inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Debby Wong-USA TODAY Sports

Hitting:

Jim Negrych – 1/5
Moises Sierra – 0/5, 2 K, E
Luis Jimenez- 0/3, R, BB, K
Mauro Gomez – 0/3, BB, 2 K
Josh Thole – 2/4, R, HR, 2 RBI, K
Andy LaRoche – 1/3, 2B, BB, K
Ryan Langerhans – 0/3, BB, 2 K
Ricardo Nanita – 1/4, R, HR, RBI, K
Ryan Goins – 2/4, 2 2B, K

Pitching:

Justin Germano – L, 3 IP, 6 H, 7 R (6 ER), 2 BB, 2 K, 2 HR
Michael Schwimer – 2 IP, 1 BB, 2 K
Buddy Carlyle – 2 IP, 1 H, 1 BB 2 K
Mickey Storey – 2 IP, 2 BB, 2 K

Jay Blue’s Player of the Game: Josh Thole

New Hampshire Fisher Cats (23-25)

The Fisher Cats dropped the afternoon finale of their four-game set with the Red Sox’s affiliate Portland Sea Dogs 8-4. Starting effectively was rehabbing pitcher Franklin Morales stifling the Fisher Cats’ bats despite not being particularly dominant while Red Sox catcher David Ross (also rehabbing) went one for three. On the Fisher Cats’ side, Matt Wright stepped in to spot start and gave up seven runs (four earned) in three innings. Randy Boone struck out three and gave up a run in his two innings while Tyson Brummett and Evan Crawford combined for three shutout innings. Despite making an error, Ryan Schimpf had a big day for the Fisher Cats. He went four for five with three singles and a double and, contrary to his normal tendencies, didn’t walk or strike out once. Shortstop Amadeo Zazueta and left fielder Brian Van Kirk had two hits apiece in an otherwise quiet day for the offense. Second baseman John Tolisano left the game after one at bat resulting in a chain reaction of defensive shifts with Schimpf moving from third to second and Kevin Ahrens moving from first to third. Ahrens made a fielding error while playing third although Schimpf’s error came in the first inning while he was still at his usual position (third base).

Roster Note: Today’s starter was supposed to be Sean Nolin but he was scratched for Matt Wright. It has been announced that Nolin will be starting in Toronto on Friday. RHP Randy Boone was activated off the DL on May 22.

Hitting:

Kevin Pillar – 1/4, BB, K
Amadeo Zazueta – 2/5, R, 2B
Ryan Schimpf – 4/5, 2B, E
Clint Robinson – 0/4, RBI, B, K
Brad Glenn – 1/5, R, K
Brian Van Kirk – 2/3, 2 R, BB, E
Jack Murphy – 0/3, BB
Kevin Ahrens – 0/2, 2 BB, E
John Tolisano – 0/1
Adam Loewen – 1/3, RBI

Pitching:

Matt Wright – L, 3 IP, 6 H, 7 R (4 ER) 2 BB, 3 K
Randy Boone – 2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 3 K
Tyson Brummett – 2 IP
Evan Crawford – 1 IP, 1 H, 1 K

Jay Blue’s Player of the Game: Ryan Schimpf

Dunedin Blue Jays (26-18)

The St. Lucie Mets scored early and then late and it was more than enough to deal the Dunedin Blue Jays their eighteenth loss of the year in an 8-5 match. Starter Austin Bibens-Dirkx gave up three runs off of one swing of the bat on a three-run homer in the first inning and was solid for the rest of his five innings. Reliever Danny Barnes got hit hard in the eighth, giving up four of the five runs to St. Lucie without recording an out, sending his ERA spiraling upwards to 22.50. On the offensive side of the ball, left fielder Nick Baligod had an outstanding day, going three for four with two doubles and scoring three of the five Blue Jay runs. Baligod, a twenty-five year old outfielder who really started to hit in Lansing last season, is now hitting .341 in ninety-one at bats in 2013. K.C. Hobson also hit his team-leading seventh home run in the loss but is only hitting .204 on the season. Jon Berti had another two hits and another stolen base to give him twenty-four on the season.

Hitting:

Jon Berti – 2/5, RBI, K, SB
Matt Newman – 1/4, R, 2B, K
Marcus Knecht – 0/1
Andy Burns – 1/5, 2B, RBI, 2 K
Jon Talley – 0/4, 3 K
K.C. Hobson – 1/3, R, HR, RBI, BB
Mike Crouse – 0/4, 2 K
Nick Baligod – 3/4, 3 R, 2 2B
Chris Schaeffer – 1/2, 2 RBI, BB, K, 2 PB
Peter Mooney – 1/4, K, E

Pitching:

Austin Bibens-Dirkx – 5 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 6 K, 1 HR
Shawn Griffith – 2 IP, 3 K
Danny Barnes – L, 0 IP, 4 H, 4 R
Tyler Ybarra – 1 IP, 2 H, 1 R (0 ER), 1 BB
Ajay Meyer – 1 IP, 1 H, 2 K

Jay Blue’s Player of the Game: Nick Baligod

Lansing Lugnuts (21-23)

The Lugnuts made it eight in a row, downing the Lake County Captains 6-1 on the back of an outstanding performance from prospect Daniel Norris. Norris, in his best start of the season, threw only four innings but struck out ten batters, giving up three hits and walking two. Norris, who has stuff that scouts rave about, has been trying to reign in his control and appears to be doing so. The offense took advantage of six Lake County errors (which accounted for four of Lansing’s six runs) on the night. No fielder could botch first baseman Kevin Patterson’s fifth dinger which launched him into a tie for the team home run lead with Carlos Ramirez and Gustavo Pierre despite Patterson having about one third of the at bats. Dwight Smith, Jr. also had two hits and drove in two runs of his own.

Roster Notes: As Jesse Goldberg-Strassler, the radio voice for the Lansing Lugnuts likes to call him, “The Great” Balbino Fuenmayor was released by the Lugnuts on Thursday. “Mighty Mouse” (as I like to call him), shortstop Jorge Flores, was activated off the 7-day DL.

Hitting:

Dalton Pompey – 0/4, R,
Dwight Smith, Jr. – 2/4, 2 RBI, CS
Christian Lopes – 1/3, R, BB
Kevin Patterson – 3/4, 2 R, HR, 2 RBI
Gustavo Pierre – 0/4, 2 K
Chris Hawkins –0/4, K
Carlos Ramirez – 0/4, RBI, 3 K
Aaron Munoz – 0/4, R
Jorge Flores – 0/2, R, BB

Pitching:

Daniel Norris – 4 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 10 K
Kramer Champlin – W, 4 IP, 4 H, 2 BB 4 K
Tucker Donahue – 2/3 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 K
Wil Browning – S, 1/3 IP

Jay Blue’s Player of the Game: Daniel Norris

If you like what you’ve seen by Jay Blue, read his work and listen to his podcast on Blue Jays from Away and follow him on Twitter: @Jaysfromaway.

May 23, 2013; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Edwin Encarnacion (10) celebrates his grand slam home run against the Baltimore Orioles in the sixth inning with right fielder Jose Bautista (19) and left fielder Melky Cabrera (53) at the Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Blue Jays started off an important home series with the division rival Baltimore Orioles on the right foot tonight with a 12-6 win in front of 21,446 fans at Rogers Centre.

Kevin Gausman made his Major League debut for the Orioles. He pitched well early but left the game with an official line of 5.0 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 2 BB and 5 SO. He took the loss but based on his nasty changeup I think that this kid has a pretty strong future ahead of him.

Edwin Encarnacion and J.P. Arencibia led the charge for the Blue Jays with 4 RBIs each. I’m assuming J.P. did some Jays Journal reading last night so you can thank us for the motivation. The Blue Jays looked to be dominating before Brandon Morrow started pitching to the score and allowed the Orioles to get back to within 2 runs in the top of the eighth.

The Jays answered right back, highlighted by some bad Orioles defense that led to a crazy slide when Anthony Gose took home from second on a passed ball. These young kids sure are exciting to watch play baseball – it probably wasn’t the smartest decision but it fired up everyone in the stadium! The Jays piled on after that to earn a lead that even Brad Lincoln couldn’t give up.

For a full play-by-play of the game including updates every half-inning, make sure to check out the May 23 Game Thread.

Apr 22, 2013; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles third baseman Manny Machado (13) steals second base safely in the eighth inning as Toronto Blue Jays second baseman Emilio Bonifacio (1) does not get the throw in time at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles defeated the Jays 2 – 1. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

Brandon Morrow (1-3, 5.16 ERA) vs. Kevin Gausman (2-4, 3.11 ERA*)

*Denotes in AA for the Bowie Baysox.

Kevin Gausman will make his first career MLB start tonight at Rogers Centre as part of the Baltimore Orioles injury-deleted rotation. He was the Orioles’ first round pick (4th overall) out of LSU in 2012. I’m not a big prospects guy so I really don’t know much else about him other than the fact he is one of Baltimore’s best. Looking at his Double-A numbers what sticks out to me is his 9.80 K/BB ratio. The Jays may be forced to swing the bat if Gausman is able to find the strike zone early. It’s always tough to predict what will happen the first time a team sees a pitcher. Experienced teams can be fooled by a guy they have never seen before. I guess we will have to see how this one plays out.

ESPN gave us a quote from Gausman in their own preview:

“Obviously, it’s going to be really exciting,” Gausman said. “I try and not think about it too much. Just go out there and keep doing what you’re doing and throw strikes.”

I handled the Game Thread here at Jays Journal the last time Brandon Morrow took the hill and he didn’t look his usual self. Morrow only had four swinging strikes along with 8 fly outs and 6 grounds outs. He pitched to a ton of contact but to his credit was victimized by the short porch in right by Robinson Cano. In any other ballpark he most likely only allows three runs instead of five. Regardless, he was far from the dominant pitcher we saw in Seattle his last start before his thirteen day layoff as he struggled with tightness in his neck. Hopefully he will get back to missing bats again tonight.

News and Notes:

Blue Jays need to stay away from Chris Davis – he was 4 for 4 yesterday including his league leading 14th home run… However Davis is 0 for 11 with 7 Ks against Morrow since 2011… Jose Bautista continues to be the man, also going 4 for 4 yesterday with 2 HR… Gausman has 49 strikeouts and only 5 walks in 46 1/3 innings in AA… Blue Jays were 5-4 at home against Orioles last year (ESPN)

Join me and the rest of the Jays Journal staff for LIVE updates every half innings. And make sure to check out Jeff Morten’s Series Preview! Let’s get our Toronto Blue Jays talk on!

Toronto Blue Jays starting lineup:

Today’s @bluejays lineup:Cabrera-LFBautista-RFEncarnacion-1BLind-DHArencibia-CLawrie-3BRasmus-CFBonifacio-2BKawasaki-SSMorrow-P

— Blue Jays-Official(@BlueJays) May 23, 2013

Baltimore Orioles starting lineup (projected):

N McLouth LF
M Machado 3B
N Markakis RF
A Jones DH
C Davis 1B
M Weiters C
J Hardy SS
C Dickerson CF
A Casilla 2B

K Gausman P

Apr 3, 2013; Toronto, ON, Canada; Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Casey Janssen (44) delivers a pitch against the Cleveland Indians at Rogers Centre. The Indians beat the Blue Jays 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

These facts are a part of the reason that there is a common superstition that closers in baseball don’t pitch as well in non-save situations.

No one seems to have any solid reasons for why that is. Most people seem to think it’s because the closer doesn’t have the same adrenaline in non-save situations.

You wouldn’t expect Toronto Blue Jays closer Casey Janssen to need closer adrenaline because he was an effective middle reliever his entire career before stepping in as the Blue Jays closer last May.

It may seem silly but look at Janssen’s last 2 outings which both happened to be non-save situations.

Janssen hadn’t given up an earned run all season until he came in to pitch the 9th inning of a game the Blue Jays were leading 7-3 against the Rays. A lead by 4 or more runs isn’t a save situation. And wouldn’t you know it Janssen gives up 2 runs.

Janssen hadn’t pitched in 8 days so you can’t fault him for being rusty. It’s not his fault the Jays had 3 off days, some blowout wins and losses to the Yankees. So it might just have been a coincidence that Janssen was dusting his rust off in a non-save situation.

But then 2 days later Janssen comes into the 9th inning of a tied 2-2 game against the Rays which is obviously not a save situation and gives up a run. Unlike a 4 run lead pitching in a 2-2 game should give you adrenaline. But it’s still not a save situation so it is an interesting coincidence that Janssen would give up a run again.

Especially since he’s been untouchable this season and it’s unheard nowadays for Janssen to give up a run in back to back outings.

But the boy might have gotten to use to the closer adrenaline.

For all we know Janssen was just rusty or the Rays figured out something about Janssen the rest of baseball hasn’t been able to. Or it could just be a big coincidence that Janssen has given up runs in his last 2 outings that just happened to be non-save situations.

Or the closer curse could be real and Janssen could just be a victim of it.

Welcome to the Show, Mr. Nolin!
Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

The Blue Jays left hander has a fastball that sits around high 80′s to low 90′s, curve ball, changeup and slider (one that he’s only picked up this past year). As well, since reaching A+ Dunedin last year, he’s gone 12-0 with a 1.93 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 2.47 BB/9, 9.56 K/9 and 0.54 HR/9 over 116.2 innings of work over A+ and AA New Hampshire. You can read more about Sean Nolin on our own prospect writeup here.

Knowing the Blue Jays current pitching woes (read: having Ramon Ortiz in your starting rotation), it was clear that Sean Nolin was going to be rushed to the majors sooner rather than later. Alex Anthopoulos himself said that he was likely to be called up this year, and being able to shutdown the competition in the minors might result in some stop-gap innings while Josh Johnson and J.A. Happ come back from injury. On the other side of the coin, bringing up a guy too early can be a bad thing, especially if it stunts his development.

Just like the Ricky Romero call up, this move is out of desperation. The team is 46 games into the season, and very close to getting to a point of no return 9 games back of the division-leading Yankees. Bringing in Sean Nolin now means that the Blue Jays are more focused on making up ground in a tough AL East division than taking it slow and steady with Nolin’s development. Hopefully it will result in a pleasant surprise, similar to Drew Hutchison‘s early MLB call up (minus the TJ surgery).

May 15, 2013; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista (19) heads for home on an error by San Francisco Giants center fielder Angel Pagan (not pictured) during the first inning at the Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

We are catching the Baltimore Orioles with a wee bit of an issue in the starting rotation. A tried and true rookie from the 2012 draft class will be making his debut Thursday after Jair Jurrjens stunk the joint out in his first and only start of the year. SP Wei-Yin Chen is on the DL. Dylan Bundy is injured and also missing is OF Nolan Reimold, who hasn’t played since May 11 because of a right hamstring strain that has landed him on the DL.

Beware though. The Orioles, even with a 3-7 record in their last 10 games, entered Wednesday’s game against the Yankees with the best winning percentage in the Majors since July 29, 2012 (.613, 65-41)…and then proceeded to bash the Yankees with 3 homers and a win in their series finale. Buck Showalter has guided this team to a point where all AL East opponents are true contenders. No more beating the crap out of the Orioles for some easy wins. Showalter will always have his team prepared…but with the cyclical nature of baseball the Blue Jays need to stomp on their necks while they are down and show the East there are five contenders…because time is running out.

Probable Pitchers:

Game 1: Kevin Gausman (2-4, 3.11 ERA @ AA) vs Brandon Morrow (1-3, 5.16 ERA)
Game 2: Freddy Garcia (0-2, 4.84 ERA) vs TBD
Game 3: TBD vs R.A. Dickey (4-5, 4.50 ERA)
Game 4: TBD vs TBD

This should give you an idea how up in the air things are for both teams. To Be Determined taking up half the spots for both teams in this 4 gamer is something not seen very often. So let’s focus on what we do know. Brandon Morrow is still finding his legs after a stint on the DL. Aside from Robinson Cano teeing off on him in New York he generally did ok. If he can keep taking the steps forward, and his ERA is around 4 at the end of June then we have the makings of the ace we have always wanted to see. I refuse to use live up to his potential anymore because he has had time to do that. The key for him is to keep his pitch count decent. Throwing strikes is becoming the key component to his survival (duh) since his 2:1 K/BB ratio is middling at best. We need to see confidence and the ability to throw the ball where he wants it.

Kevin Gausman was the fourth overall pick in the 2012 draft and here he is already. He throws strikes, doesn’t walk many and along with Dylan Bundy make up the long term future of the Orioles rotation. The Jays just have to sit back and get a feel for the guy. Take pitches. Work the count. There can’t be much video to study so you know this kid just wants to throw strikes. So sit on a fastball and wait for it. He is the 11th starting pitcher used by the Orioles so this should spell out a win for the good guys.

Game 2 will be a battle of the retread vs the unproven. Freddy Garcia seems to have been around forever. From his glory years with the Mariners to begin his career to his resent situation in Baltimore, Garcia is truly a pitcher. He doesn’t throw as hard as he used to but a 1.07 WHIP and an opp BAA of .222 shows there is still life in that arm. If given the chance I hope we get to tee off on him. His GO/AO is a paltry .83 so expect lots of flyballs and with the way some of the Jays are swinging the bats it should be a homer happy type of game.

This of course is dependent on who will be the starter for the Jays. Chad Jenkins is available but has only thrown a max of 6 innings since coming back from injury. There is talk that 2010 6th rounder Sean Nolin (2-0. 1.17 ERA @ AA) could be shuffled up from New Hampshire to take the start. He has been rising up on the depth charts and appears to be this years…ummm…Chad Jenkins. Reliable with a big arm that could translate to average major league success. Considering he is three years from his draft year he has done quite well. But this is only an educated guess as to who our TBD will be.

Game 3 sees the resurgent R.A. Dickey taking the mound against a yet to be determined opponent. In his last three starts Dickey is averaging 7+ innings, 2 ER and about 7 Ks. This would appear to be closer to the Cy Young starter we gave up some of our future for. His overall WHIP of 1.31 is right in line with his career norm (1.33) so he has been as good as before but he has given up some timely hits this season that have doomed him to fail. The last three starts shows none of that and I am sure a focused Dickey would have no problem taking down a TBD pitcher…

Line-Ups:

The following are the probable line-ups for both squads:

Baltimore

1. LF: Nate McLouth
2. 3B: Manny Machado
3. RF: Nick Markakis
4. DH: Adam Jones
5. 1B: Chris Davis
6. C: Matt Wieters
7. SS: J.J. Hardy
8. CF: Chris Dickerson
9. 2B: Alexi Casilla

Toronto Blue Jays:
1. LF: Melky Cabrera
2. RF: Jose Bautista
3. 1B: Edwin Encarnacion
4. DH: Adam Lind
5. C: J.P. Arencibia
6. 3B: Brett Lawrie
7. CF: Colby Rasmus
8. 2B: Maicer Izturis
9. SS: Munenori Kawasaki

It would seem Melky Cabrera has tried to put to rest the feeling that he wouldn’t be able to play up to his potential without the use of drugs. In his last ten Cabrera has a .333 AVG which seems to say yes but his 0-5 in the last couple games makes you wonder if the tightness in his legs is causing some different issues at the plate. He is still below his career norms in OBP (.318 to .337) and Slugging % (.374 to .412) but he isn’t the bust many experts were saying hew would be. If he gets over his leg issues watch out.

Then there is da man. Da chief mucky muck himself Jose Bautista. In his last ten Bautista has carried the team on his shoulders it would seem (highlighted by his 2 HR, 4 RBI performance against the Rats…err…Rays). .412 AVG, 14 Hits, 10 runs scored, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 9 BB, 6 Ks and a stolen base for good measure. His average is up to .275 and I think we have finally seen a healthy Bautista coming to the plate. More selective and more confident we may be able to ride his bat to another series win considering the status of the Baltimore rotation.

Final Word

Thank goodness for Bautista because a lot of the other bats are just there for show it would seem (Arencibia, Lawrie, Rasmus). Baltimore has been free falling from 1st place is the East and now 3rd and in danger of falling to fourth. So which team are they? The one kicking MLB butt for almost a year or the one that is falling on it’s butt lately? It is hard to tell but it shouldn’t matter. If our starters can give a good 6-7 innings and Cabrera, Bautista, Encarnacion and Lind can keep firing on all cylinders then we should easily take 3 of 4. Some turnarounds are slower than others but it is apparent we are playing much better ball this month. Hopefully we can end May on an even higher note.

As this is a complete waste, although he did replace a reliever which is no bad thing, the Jays have obviously done it to piss me off after I unequivocally said they shouldn’t.  So, this week’s edition will test the big club’s resolve further by making a few more suggestions which AA and co. should definitely NOT DO.

1) I touched on this one as well last week.  It was a brief touching though, and before I knew the Jays were doing the opposite, so bears repeating.  Josh Thole should absolutely NOT be promoted to the big club.  I know his .336/.411/.496 slash line looks good optically, but hey, it’s AAA.  So doesn’t really count.  Although getting on base seems to be an issue for Jays catchers, with JPA’s .239 OBP leaving him dead last amongst qualified catchers, and Henry ‘Good Guy’ Blanco coming in at a slightly better at .242 in, admittedly, a small sample size, why call up a player who seems to thrive on getting on base?  Thole’s .411 OBP is the eighth highest in the International League, and if we’re being petty, is only .070 behind the COMBINED percentage of Blanco and Arencibia.  Interestingly, the average age of the seven players ahead of Josh is 28, so really the definition of ‘replacement player’.  Which is exactly the value being provided by the Jays current catching tandem with JPA checking in at 0.2 WAR and Blanco at -0.2.

This is a no brainer, Blanco and his sage advice should stay.

2)  The Jays should definitely jump the gun here and promote Sean Nolin and Marcus Stroman too quickly as they are

Feb 25, 2013; Dunedin, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Sean Nolin (71) against the Boston Red Sox during a spring training split squad game at Florida Exchange Park. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

definitely ready.  Regular readers to this column may now be calling bull-poo.  Weren’t you the guy that last week said (in regards to Nolin), and I quote, ‘I’d love to see how he would fare against big league hitting.’  Of course I would, however, I should have added a postscript stating that this would be ‘in the future.’  Nolin has now logged a mere 30.1 innings at double A, and although they have been very good, he still needs time to build arm strength and mature as a pitcher.  It is worrying that, as per Shi Davidi’s tweet (linked on last week’s post) he could very well be in Toronto if another injury occurs (or management realizes that Ramon Ortiz stinks).  Marc Hulet over at fangraphs also raises some very important points regarding a possible Nolin promotion from a business standpoint.  There is no point in burning one of his option years when there are other routes open to the Jays.

One of those potential routes is Marcus Stroman.  Admittedly this is a long shot at best, but AA did state prior to the season that Stroman would begin his year (post suspension) in Dunedin where he’d be stretched out as a starter.  He’s already one level higher, debuting with New Hampshire.  Does this mean he’s that much closer to the bigs?  Who knows.  Management were very impressed with his spring training appearance against Boston.  And if he were to be used in a relief role, he probably could be in the bigs very soon.  The point of stretching him out as a starter though, is to stretch him out.  The minor leagues is the best place for Marcus right now.  Let’s hope, and I’m sure they do, management agrees.

3)  With Anthony Gose rightfully called up to the bigs, Eugenio Velez, the thirty-one year old career minor leaguer is definitely the right choice to replace him.  I may be being a bit harsh in saying he is a ‘career’ minor leaguer.  He has played 259 games in the bigs, where, according to fangraphs.com measurements he has put up a Henry Blanco like -0.2 WAR.  So, effectively, a sub-replacement level.  Therefore, I can totally see why he is getting the reps in Buffalo and not Kevin Pillar who has been tearing up double-A.  Let me qualify that somewhat, Pillar doesn’t hit for a lot of power.  But he is a prospect.  Marc Hulet had him in his Blue Jays top fifteen (albeit after the Miami Marlins trade which saw that top fifteen lose a few names).  He is a player that grows on you, and admittedly he as grown on me, as I named my Sleeper Prospect List after him.  So I may be biased.  And lord knows I am not fully cognizant of the machinations of running a minor league organization.  But seriously??! Eugenio Velez.  Give me a break.

4) The Adam Loewen experiment needs to end.  This is more of a personal one for me.  I’ve met Adam, had beers with him, he’s a nice guy, from Surrey, etc etc.  I want to him succeed.  His numbers in New Hampshire suggest that is not happening.  His 36.4% K rate is not pretty, but he does take a walk, and can hit for a bit of power.  And hey, the pipe dream that R.A. Dickey can teach him the knuckleball is still alive for me.  Spring training 2014, book it.

Apr 21, 2013; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Josh Johnson (55) pitches to the New York Yankees at the Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

JUST IN: @bluejays announce RHP Josh Johnson to start for the #Bisons on Saturday vs. Indy (1pm) at Coca-Cola Field. milb.com/news/article.j…

— Buffalo Bisons (@BuffaloBisons) May 23, 2013

Johnson, who has been on the disabled list since May 2nd with right triceps tightness, made his initial rehab start for Advanced-A Dunedin on May 20th and the results looked good on paper, with Johnson throwing 3 innings while allowing 1 run and striking out five in the outing. However, he pure “stuff” was not great, as he topped out at 92 MPH in the game and didn’t show a lot of movement, according to Danny Knobler at CBSSports.

According to Fangraphs, Johnson was living with an average fastball around 93-94 MPH and topping out at 98 prior to his injury. As he builds up arm strength, that should start to return a bit toward that line.

That said, the Blue Jays and Johnson are still targeting a return in early June. That should give Johnson time to make at least two starts at Buffalo before the team evaluates if he is ready to return to the rotation.

When he does come back, Johnson will be looking to improve upon a season that has been rocky to say the least. The 29-year-old has an 0-1 record with a 6.86 ERA, a 4.1 BB/9 ratio, and a 8.7 K/9 ratio in four starts thus far in 2013.

Of course, Johnson has more than just the Blue Jays to consider in regards to his season performance. He is also due to become a free agent at the end of this season, and could become a prime trade candidate if the Blue Jays cannot get themselves back into the race for a playoff spot.