Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

Over at FanGraphs they have asked their fans to make projections for players and their 2013 seasons. This includes the AL East’s Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees. Some things they ask fans to project include games played, K and BB%, HR/150 and other offensive and defensive stats, as well as similar pitching stats for pitchers. Once 8 fans have made their projections, they will appear on the player’s Fangraph page to show their prediction, right underneath the great Saber Magician Bill James’ projection. While it’s likely that the fans will make favourable projections rather than objective predictions, it’s nice to see how the fans think the Blue Jays will fare in the AL East.

Today we will be finishing off by looking at the starting rotations as well as closers and setup men of the AL East, leading up to Blue Jays Pitchers and Catchers reporting to Spring Training on February 12. Waiting and guessing time is almost over. Baseball season approaches!

Previous posts:

AL East Fan Projection February Part I: Infield

AL East Fan Projection February Part II: Outfields And DH’s

Notes:
a) Each team’s starting positions are based on position on MLB.com depth charts, as well as estimations by mlbdepthcharts.com.
b) “# Fans” declares the amount of fan projections made for that player.
c) Pitching data was exported on February 8th, 2013.

Toronto Blue Jays Pitching

Data provided by fangraphs.com

Noteworthy items:

-Both R.A. Dickey and Price are the only starters projected by fans to win 17 games by their AL East fans. They are also last year’s Cy Young award winners.
-Oddly enough, despite injuries to almost every Blue Jays starter last year, the team is projected to lead the AL East in innings pitched with 1111.
-Although W-L records for pitchers individually don’t tell a full story, the Blue Jays are projected to have the most amount of wins and have the best winning percentage at .604
-Weirdly enough, Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero are projected to make a spot appearance out of the bullpen. Emergency usage or rehab appearance? Your guess is as good as mine.
-The Blue Jays fans project that Casey Janssen will close out more games than Sergio Santos, roughly by a 2:1 margin.
-As with both the infield and the outfield+DH projections, the Blue Jays lead the AL East in fan projections.

Baltimore Orioles Pitching

Data provided by fangraphs.com

Noteworthy items:

-Just as Baltimore tinkered with their starting rotation last year, this team’s starting 5 are projected to have both the least amount of games started and innings pitched in the AL East.
-Despite favourable projections by fans, the Orioles are the only team in the division with some of its starters not projected to win at least 10 games.
-Fans may think that the Orioles Magic may have ran its course (or remains with the rest of the Baltimore bullpen), as this team is projected to provide the lowest WAR among AL East teams.
-Jim Johnson, despite being one of the more solid closers last year in the AL East, is projected to have by far the lowest K/9 out of the bunch with 5.74, with 2nd worst in Rivera with 8.18 K/9.

Tampa Bay Rays Pitching

Data provided by fangraphs.com

Noteworthy items:

-David Price is the only projected AL East starter to have a projected ERA of less than 3, although just barely at 2.99.
-Fernando Rodney is probably projected to have the worst ERA regression in the entire league, mainly because 0.60 is really difficult to maintain.
-The Rays fans believe their pitching unit will be the best out of all AL East teams, as they are projected to lead the division in ERA, WHIP, K/9, HR/9 and WAR.
-Jake McGee, under team control until 2018, has some impressive stuff that may serve the Rays well in the long run. He was 9th among qualified relievers in K%, 16th in BB/9 and 7th in WAR last year and with Rodney set to start the season at 36 he may not be the team’s closer after this season.

Boston Red Sox Pitching

Data provided by fangraphs.com

Noteworthy items:

-Oddly enough, despite the Red Sox being one of the biggest markets in MLB, they have the fewest amount of AL East fan projections.
-John Lackey returning from injury is probably too much of a blight for Sox fans, seeing as he did not meet the projection threshold of 8 projections. Once again, his data is an estimation using 2010 and 2011 data (his 2 most previous seasons) and using Bill James, Oliver and Steamer projections. As such, he’s the only pitcher projected to lose more games than win, a projection more than likely to be proven wrong by season’s end among AL East pitchers.
-The team’s ERA projects to be about league average, probably the most modest of fan projections throughout the AL East.
-The combination of Joel Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey is projected to be the worst among AL East relievers in ERA, FIP, WAR, HR/9 and BB/9. The fans seem more skeptical of that combination than Red Sox ownership, who traded quite a deal to bring them over to the division.

New York Yankees Pitching

Data provided by fangraphs.com

Noteworthy items:

-Mariano Rivera, at age 43 and coming off of an injury that saw him sit for most of last season, is projected to be business as usual, with only occasional closing opportunities available to David Robertson.
-The Yankees pitching unit is projected to have the lowest BB/9 out of all AL East teams, with only Robertson projected to have a BB/9 not lower than 3.
-Phil Hughes will be looking to maintain his pitching velocity, which has been modestly declining since 2009. If it gets much worse, his stuff alone might not be able to stave off the opposing AL East offense.
-Andy Pettitte is projected by fans to make 24 starts for the team. Hopefully for Yankees fans he’ll be able to make it that long, but after coming back from retirement and sustaining an injury last year, it may not be in the cards.

Total Projected Pitching WAR

1. Tampa Bay Rays: 18.8 WAR

T-2. Toronto Blue Jays: 17.3 WAR

T-2. New York Yankees: 17.3 WAR

4. Boston Red Sox: 11.8 WAR

5. Baltimore Orioles: 11.3 WAR

Total Projected WAR (Non-Pitching + Pitching WAR Totals)

Tampa Bay Rays: 46.3 WAR (27.5 + 18.8 WAR)

Toronto Blue Jays: 45.3 WAR (28 + 17.3 WAR)

New York Yankees: 44.9 WAR (27.6 + 17.3 WAR)

Boston Red Sox: 42.7 WAR (30.9 + 11.8 WAR)

Baltimore Orioles: 35.3 WAR (23.9 + 11.4 WAR)

What Can We Gather From This Exercise?

-These WAR projections are based on 16 of each team’s 25 man roster. There definitely is wiggle room between each team’s remaining 9 players that could possibly change the total WAR standings.

-The Blue Jays fans provided the most fan projections out of any AL East team. That alone should tell you how excited our fanbase is for the new season and new-look team.

-Fan projections are exactly that; projections made by fans. It will be interesting to revisit after the season is over to see how each team did in comparison to their fan projections. No way will each team have near-impeccable health, nor will all of their 16 best players remain the same 16 players by season’s end.

Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

Over at FanGraphs they have asked their fans to make projections for players and their 2013 seasons. This includes the AL East’s Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees. Some things they ask fans to project include games played, K and BB%, HR/150 and other offensive and defensive stats, as well as similar pitching stats for pitchers. Once 8 fans have made their projections, they will appear on the player’s Fangraph page to show their prediction, right underneath the great Saber Magician Bill James’ projection. While it’s likely that the fans will make favourable projections rather than objective predictions, it’s nice to see how the fans think the Blue Jays will fare in the AL East.

Today we will be looking at the respective outfield and DH positions throughout the AL East division. On Monday we will be finishing off by looking at the starting rotations, leading up to Pitchers and Catchers reporting to Spring Training the following day. Waiting and guessing time is almost over. Baseball season approaches!

Notes: a) Each team’s starting positions are based on position on MLB.com depth charts, as well as estimations by mlbdepthcharts.com. b) “# Fans” declares the amount of fan projections made for that player.

Toronto Blue Jays Outfield + DH

Data provided by fangraphs.com

Noteworthy items:

-For a team that is projected to be the speediest infield in the AL East (by a large margin), the outfield is projected to be the slowest of all 5 teams.
-I would consider it optimism to see both Adam Lind with a higher OPS than Colby Rasmus AND make it to 454 AB. If he goes to the plate that many times, it’ll be because his performance has returned from better days.
-Projecting Melky Cabrera is a very tricky thing considering we don’t quite know when his PED usage started, but right now it seems like the fans project that a PED-less regression and playing in the AL East ballparks more often will balance itself out and will return to 2011 days.
-As with the AL East infield projections from Monday, the Blue Jays have the most fan projections for the outfield out of any other AL East team (data as of February 2, 2013).

Baltimore Orioles Outfield + DH

Data provided by fangraphs.com

Noteworthy items:

-In a very zen-like way, the fan projection for fielding runs for the outfield is -21 below average, while the infield is projected at +21, bringing the starting defense overall to league average (minus the pitcher).
-Like the Blue Jays, their team is projected to rely more on power than getting on base, as they are second lowest in projected OBP to the blue birds and second highest in projected slugging percentage.
-With the lowest projected AB out of any AL East outfield+DH unit, they’ll look more to backups like Nate McLouth and Xavier Avery.

Tampa Bay Rays Outfield + DH

Data provided by fangraphs.com

Noteworthy items:

-At a +35 defensive runs saved differential among all non-pitching units, the Rays are projected to be the most defensive minded club in the AL East.
-Luke Scott still does not have enough fan projections to reach the crowdsourcing threshold, so I used data combining 2011-2012 data as well as using Bill James, Steamer and Oliver projections.
-While Ben Zobrist has been known to be utilized almost everywhere in the field, RF seems to be where the Rays will be using him the most next year.
-This team’s outfield+DH unit is projected to lead all other units in the AL East in terms of WAR.

Boston Red Sox Outfield + DH

Data provided by fangraphs.com

Noteworthy items:

-David Ortiz is the most nightmarish of coin tosses, as a Blue Jays fan. He is coming off of an Achilles injury last year and will be 37 years old playing in 2013, but hit 23 HR’s and had an OPS of 1.026 in 90 games before getting injured.
-The new additions of Jonny Gomes and Shane Victorino will address two of Boston’s needs in additional speed and a platoon/placeholder until the fate of Daniel Nava is determined.
-Red Sox nation must see Jacoby Ellsbury and his 32 HR’s from 2010 as an outlier, seeing as he only hit 4 last year in 323 AB. They seem to be splitting the difference.

New York Yankees Outfield + DH

Data provided by fangraphs.com

Noteworthy items:

-The Yankees seem to be the only team projected by fans in the AL East to have its outfield+DH unit not crack 0.800, as 0.775 is the worst in the division.
-Brett Gardner, who spent 142 games on the DL last year, is expected to have a higher OBP than slugging percentage for his first time in a 100+ game season.
-The Yankees outfield+DH unit is projected to be the fastest in the AL East.
-Ichiro Suzuki‘s projected performance seems to heavily hinge on how well he turned it around after joining the Yankees. It’ll be interesting to see if his numbers are truly affected by the little league-esque dimensions of Yankee Stadium, or if he just had a hot streak after leaving Seattle.

Total Projected WAR Among Non-Pitchers

Boston Red Sox: 30.9 WAR

Toronto Blue Jays: 28 WAR

New York Yankees: 27.6 WAR

Tampa Bay Rays: 27.5 WAR

Baltimore Orioles: 23.9 WAR

Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

We’re right at the home stretch; one week until Spring Training. With little to do but wait until the Blue Jays lace up their cleats, don the blue and white and take the field in Dunedin it seemed to be a fun exercise to see the fans’ projections and what they are expecting of their respective teams.

Over at FanGraphs they have asked their fans to make projections for players and their 2013 seasons. This includes the AL East’s Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees. Some things they ask fans to project include games played, K and BB%, HR/150 and other offensive and defensive stats, as well as similar pitching stats for pitchers. Once 8 fans have made their projections, they will appear on the player’s Fangraph page to show their prediction, right underneath the great Saber Magician Bill James’ projection. While it’s likely that the fans will make favourable projections rather than objective predictions, it’s nice to see how the fans think the Blue Jays will fare in the AL East.

Today we will be looking at the respective infields throughout the division. On Saturday we will take a look at the Outfield + DH positions and next Monday we will be looking at the starting rotations, leading up to Pitchers and Catchers reporting February 12th. Waiting and guessing time is almost over. Baseball season approaches!

Notes: a) Each team’s starting positions are based on position on MLB.com depth charts, as well as estimations by mlbdepthcharts.com. b) “# Fans” declares the amount of fan projections made for that player.

Toronto Blue Jays Infield

Data provided by fangraphs.com

Noteworthy items:

-Fans make the projection that the Blue Jays infield will have almost 9 Basestealing runs above average as a unit, way above 2nd place Red Sox at 0.6.
-J.P. Arencibia has a projection to break both his career BA and OBP, but not by much. I don’t see him getting as much playing time as he is projected to get if he can’t get on base 3 times out of 10.
-Emilio Bonifacio‘s projected SB count is 40 out of 47 attempts, yet last year in 274 PA he stole 30 of 33 bases. If he were to get 450-ish at bats, I would hope to see at least 50 stolen bases.
-The Blue Jays’ infield has by far the most projections in the AL East, with 221 fan projections (as of February 2, 2013).

Baltimore Orioles Infield

Data provided by fangraphs.com

Noteworthy items:

-There’s a .080 OPS dropoff from Bill James’ projection to that of the fans’ projection. Seemingly, the fans think Davis will do worse than in 2012, while James expects him to be as equally better.
-Something about Brian Roberts being at replacement value and expected to play 64 games says a lot about how much he’s valued by the fans. It’s a shame to see the player who got the final out at old Yankee Stadium be almost an afterthought in 2013.
-The Orioles infield has a fan projection of 93 HR’s, one less than the projected 94 of the Red Sox, but 6 more than a Yankees team that has Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano and Kevin Youkilis.
-The left side of the infield and catcher collectively, between 3 players, are projected to save at least 27 runs, way and above 1st in the AL East.

Tampa Bay Rays Infield

Data provided by fangraphs.com

Noteworthy items:

-With James Loney playing half his games in a park that place 24th in HR factor out of all 30 baseball parks last year, I don’t see how Loney improves to 9 HR’s after last year’s 6.
-The former Blue Jays middle infield in Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson both are expected to increase their OPS as they reach their age 31 season in a more pitcher friendly park. Hopefully for the Blue Jays they match their 2012 level of production.
-About half of the team’s infield WAR value comes in from Evan Longoria alone, whose fan-projected WAR of 6.5 is tied for 1st in the AL East infield players. With that in mind, the Rays are projected to have the lowest WAR among AL East infields.
-Jose Molina‘s offensive stats barely matter as long as he can masterfully frame pitches to a tune of almost 50 runs saved.

Boston Red Sox Infield

Data provided by fangraphs.com

Noteworthy items:

-Despite Mike Napoli not playing 115+ games since 2010 (the only time that’s happened in his career), both Bill James and the fans’ projection predict at least 125 games played, although Bill James did not know Napoli had a lingering hip problem at the time.
-Red Sox are the only team to have each infield player have a fan projection of at least 10 HR’s, and because of this are projected to lead the AL East infields with 94 HR’s.
-With the help from two new players in Napoli and Stephen Drew (hopefully better for Boston than their other Drew), the Red Sox infield has the highest WAR projection out of any AL East team.

New York Yankees Infield

Data provided by fangraphs.com

Noteworthy items:

-Despite Mark Teixeira believing he’s overpaid and his best years are behind him, both Bill James and the fans’ projection have the first baseman at 30+ HR’s and at least 3.5 WAR.
-Considering Jeter’s returning from a devastating ankle injury and will be 39 this year, I’m surprised he’s projected to both play 133 games and to be above 2 WAR.
-With two to three catchers set to share time at backstop in Francisco Cervelli, Chris Stewart and Austin Romine it is understandable to see Cervelli at only 251 AB.

On Friday, we will look at the AL East outfields and DH’s, wrapping up the division’s fan projections for offense. You will never guess which outfielder is projected to have a 5.8 WAR, the most out of any AL East outfielder (although guessing in the comments section couldn’t hurt).