Much like in this picture, the Toronto Blue Jays are chasing the Boston Red Sox for the AL East Championship and a spot in the playoffs. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

With the Toronto Blue Jays in the midst of a season long four game winning streak, it sounds negative to talk about a topic like this.  You can thank Jon Heyman for drawing my ire.

What should Alex Anthopoulos do if the season plays out the way it has been playing out and the Blue Jays play cellar dwellers?

The way I see it, if this Jays team isn’t going to do win this season, then they’re not going to do it.  Factors such as the AL East crown is more winnable now this season than it has been in the last 18 years led to a big bump in payroll for the Jays, as they took on the “win now” persona.  They bet the farm to acquire players that look fantastic or “sexy on paper.”  If “win now” is not going to happen, I believe the Jays would have to (dare I say it) rebuild the farm.

Heyman had his own ideas the other day.  He believes that the Baltimore Orioles should go after R.A. Dickey.  He then followed it up with Dickey more-than-likely not being available due to a relatively team friendly contract for a reigning Cy Young winner.  So basically, it was a waste of an article by Heyman.  I wasn’t the only one that felt this way.  Travis Bateman’s article takes it into further detail discussing some nationally syndicated writers you may want to avoid when it comes to following the Toronto Blue Jays.  It’s an excellent read.

Bateman, Heyman, and another fellow writer, Kyle Franzoni however, all got me thinking:  ”if it’s over before the trade deadline, who are the Blue Jays most trade-able chips?”

I’m not in the head of AA.  If I was, I would ABSOLUTELY NOT make a trade to improve an AL East rival unless I knew for sure the Blue Jays were absolutely out of it.  So Dickey to the Orioles just isn’t happening.  Guys that could be on their way out however:

Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Edwin Encarnacion (10).  Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Edwin Encarnacion: There are several playoff contending teams that are having issues at 1B, 3B, and OF.  Encarnacion can play all of those positions.  While his versatility makes him intriguing, it’s his power and contract that make him a great trade chip.  The power slugger is only one year removed from hitting .280 with 42 HR 110 RBI and an .941 OPS.  The 2012 season was by far EE’s best season of his career.  If the Blue Jays were better in 2012, Encarnacion would have been an MVP candidate.  The amount of money he’s earning this season?  A mere $8 million dollars.  That’s nothing for MVP type numbers.  Did I mention that Easy E is also only 30 years old?

Teams Interested:  Most of this is my own speculation of course, but contending teams outside the AL East that could use an upgrade at 1B, 3B, or OF are the St.Louis Cardinals, Texas Rangers, and MAYBE Oakland Athletics or Kansas City Royals.

All four teams mentioned have great talent at their minor league levels.  St.Louis and Texas are probably the best suitors since both teams are willing to take on money and have young, talented players they’re looking to move.  The Rangers may be the most ideal. The Rangers are looking to upgrade at 1B (the Rangers aren’t sold on Mitch Moreland) and possibly move #1 prospect SS/2B Jurickson Profar as well as #2 prospect 3B Mike Olt since both youngsters are roadblocked by better players.  With the possible resurgence of the Jays 1B/OF/DH Adam Lind, plus the Blue Jays need for a legitimate second baseman, this trade would benefit both teams greatly.  It would also give Toronto some payroll relief for when SS Jose Reyes‘ contract starts to reach into the stratosphere of ballplayers like Albert Pujols ($23 million) and Alex Rodriguez ($28 million.)

Brandon Morrow (23) Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Brandon Morrow:  It’s difficult to imagine Morrow being the Jays most trade-able pitcher given his inconsistency.  Many GMs, however, love Morrow’s stuff and feel he can be a bonafide top of the rotation pitcher of almost any team.  Though he was more affordable last season, $8 million for a 28 year old hard throwing righty is still relative bargain for aspiring playoff teams.  2012 showed glimpses of just how good he can be, with a 10-7 record, 2.96 ERA, and 3.0 BB/9, all career bests.

Teams Interested: The Kansas City Royals and Atlanta Braves have to be interested if Morrow is available.  Both teams would be willing to increase their payroll to acquire an arm like Morrow’s.  It’s tough to say who the ideal partner is here, but the Braves have the more talented farm system at this point.  If the Jays are looking to add some young talented arms, you don’t have to look hard with the Braves.  Julio Teheran or Mike Minor do not have Morrow’s stuff, but can be front line starters, are younger, and would be under team control wherever they end up.  Landing one of them as well as a couple of decent-to-low end prospects could make a trade like this very realistic.

Casey Janssen (44) Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Casey Janssen: It pains me to say Janssen’s name in trade talks.  What pains me even more is Toronto doesn’t see him to be the ideal closer for this team.  Last season’s trade for Sergio Santos showed you Toronto felt it needed improvement at the back end of the pen.  This despite Janssen being the most reliable relief pitcher the Jays have had over the last three seasons (yes, even more so than Jason Frasor.)  Since Janssen is an UFA after 2014 and costs around $4 million for his talents, he’s affordable by most playoff contending teams and would be a great trade asset for the Jays.

Teams Interested: Two teams that immediately come to mind are both from the NL West.  The Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks both need closers.  Brandon League and J.J. Putz, for their respective teams, have not been good.

Here’s where this gets tricky though.  Both teams have closers waiting in the wings.  The Dodgers have Kenley Jansen.  Arizona has David Hernandez.  In fact, most sports analysts have wondered why Jansen has yet to be given the closer’s role with all of League’s struggles.  In Arizona, I don’t feel the D-Backs trust Hernandez in that role just yet.  When Putz went down to injury, instead of going to Hernandez, Diamondbacks coach Kirk Gibson gave the closing duties to failed Miami Marlins closer Heath Bell.

Janssen would be a perfect fit for either team though.  The Jays would ideally like to deal with Diamondbacks because of their farm system talent.  A player like Janssen could possibly get the Jays LHP prospect Tyler Skaggs straight up due to the pitching depth Arizona has.  Even though Skaggs is the Diamondbacks top organizational prospect, based off of what I read, my perception is the club may value #2 prospect, RHP Archie Bradley, more.  It’s not out of the realm of getting players like Matt Davidson, Adam Eaton, and Skaggs or Bradley if Toronto ships Encarnacion and Janssen to Arizona.  That does go against Arizona’s youth movement philosophy however.

Janssen, being from California, may prefer to go to the Dodgers.  The Dodgers sorely need a reliable late inning arm, almost as much as the Jays do.  Two problems with the Dodgers.  1.) They are struggling as badly now as the Jays were in April.  2.) Much like the Jays, they too bet their farm system on big name, talented veterans.  So the Dodgers farm system is pretty dry.  If, however, LA puts together a solid playoff run in the coming months, or at least believes it can, they may be willing to make a move where it could net the Jays stud prospect OF Yasiel Puig in exchange for Janssen.

There are plenty of the minor moves to be made.  Playoff teams are always looking to make their team faster on the basepaths.  Rajai Davis and Emilio Bonifacio have great speed and could be sent out, but it probably wouldn’t give the Jays back anybody of major relevance.  Melky Cabrera, if he continues to hit the ball well, could maybe net a decent set of prospects, but I feel teams are still a bit hesitant to trade for him after his suspension and cover-up last season for PEDs.  Darren Oliver or Aaron Loup are two more players that could be dealt seeing as though most teams like to carry a “lefty specialist.”  Don’t expect both guys to get the Jays much in return either.

Ultimately, if the Jays are done, then Encarnacion, Morrow, and Janssen are the best bet to help rebuild this franchise.  While the trades made this offseason to acquire Dickey and other good players like Josh Johnson and Reyes weren’t entirely bad, if this team doesn’t at least get into the playoffs, it’s going to cost AA his job.  The flip flopping of team strategy to go from building within, to betting the farm, back to building within is generally frowned upon in any major sports management community.  It portrays the image that the guy running the franchise doesn’t know what he’s doing.  If the Jays go back to rebuilding, they truly will be the “Marlins of the North” and will absolutely portray that clueless image.

May 11, 2013; Boston, MA USA; Toronto Blue Jays left fielder Melky Cabrera (53) hits an RBI single during the third inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Personally I don’t care if the manager wants to change the lineup a lot. If he feels he’s got to change it based on whose pitching that particular day that’s his business.

But I think the top of the lineup the Toronto Blue Jays used in the last 2 games of the Red Sox series is worth sticking with.

If you missed the games or need a reminder the Blue Jays had Melky leadoff, Bautista in the 2 hole and Encarnacion hitting 3rd.

Lawrie, Kawasaki, Rajai, Bonifacio all didn’t pass the leadoff hitter tryouts.

Since the Jays couldn’t find a leadoff man why not do the next best thing and move everyone up a spot?

You could argue that with the weaker hitters at the bottom of the lineup that they won’t get on base enough for the top of the lineup to drive them in but no one was getting on base enough in the leadoff spot anyways.

Melky, Bautista and Edwin are the Jays 3 best hitters so with them at the top of the lineup they’ll get the most at bats which should help the Jays score more runs. When opposing pitchers turn the lineup around they’ll have to face Melky and Bautista right away as opposed to having to face a nonthreatening leadoff hitter.

With the guarantee that the Jays big 3 all hit in the 1st inning it gives the opposing pitcher a huge challenge right from the start.

They are all very selective and see a lot of pitches so they can get a pitcher’s pitch count up in the 1st inning. That’s something the Jays have done a very poor job of this season. It seems like the Jays always get out of the 1st inning only seeing 12 or less pitches even when they score a run sometimes.

Melky, Bautista and Encarnacion hitting in the 1st inning also gives you a better chance of scoring runs in the 1st inning. The Blue Jays haven’t had the luxury of early leads very often this season.

John Gibbons has been playing around with the Jays lineup a lot this season but I think he’s finally found the right top of the lineup that doesn’t need to be changed.

With the way the Jays offense has been struggling this season you have to love the idea of their 3 best hitters being guaranteed to hit in the 1st inning and getting the most at bats.

Edwin Encarnacion taking the parrot for a walk. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

When I started writing this piece it was meant to look at the success of Edwin Encarnacion. Whether you refer to him as E5, E² or Edwin “Encarnasheeyon,” as our good friend Buck Martinez calls him, there’s no way around the fact that his journey from being designated for assignment to 40+ home run, bat flipping, bobble head inspiring man he is today is remarkable. The thing is though, at first glance his stats for 2013 don’t look all that impressive, asides from being tied for the American League lead in home runs, with 11, his .231/.313/.469/ stat line is quite unremarkable. What makes it all the more puzzling is a recent article at baseballanalytics.org charting the relation between strike out rates and home runs.

I’ve taken the liberty of highlighting the Jay’s players on their chart to examine them more closely.

From the chart you can clearly see the how Encarnacion and Jose Bautista both have a patient approach which helps cement them as elite power hitters. You can also clearly see how Colby Rasmus and J.P Arencebia are hacking away wildly, like Stevie Wonder going after a pinata and have happened to run into a few mistake pitches along the way.

Now this is where things stop getting so clear, Rasmus and Encarnacion both sport a .231 batting average despite Rasmus leading the league in strikeout percentage. In order to clear things up taking a look at both players BABIP paints a much more complete picture, although you might not like everything you see in that picture.

Let’s start with the good news, the league average BABIP is betwen .290 and .310, our parrot toting friend Edwin sits at a paltry .207. That puts him not only well below the league average but also below his career mark of .277 and the .266 he posted last year. So much like the rest of the squad so far in 2013 you can expect Encarnacion to start performing closer to expectations as his BABIP reverts towards the mean.

But just as BABIP giveth, BABIP taketh away, and while Edwin’s numbers are suppressed by his BABIP Colby’s .231 average is actually being buoyed by a lofty .368 BABIP. Yes you read that correctly Colby could get a whole lot worse! Technically the bottom could fall out at any minute sending his numbers to a dismal place that much better represents his 41.5% strike out rate. The one consolation Jays fans can take (somewhat) is that his career K% is only 24.1% so he could see a reduction in strikeouts over time as well.

While I don’t want to write off Rasmus completely looking at this BABIP over his career shows that even his much heralded 2010 campaign with the Cardinals was fueled by a .354 BABIP well above his career mark of .310. If this season his BABIP starts to plummet before the strikeouts do it will certainly increase the  ferocity of the angry mob wanting his head (and or hair). And the free Anthony Gose movement will begin gaining more traction in a hurry even though is numbers in Buffalo could hardly be called impressive.

The Blue Jays offense struggled mightily in their 4 losses, managing to score a pitiful 3 runs and never really threatening to do much else. In their two wins they appeared to be a completely different team, wutg the offense managing to show the kind of fireworks that was expected coming into this season as they exploded for 19 runs.

I’ve lost count of how many times the Blue Jays have won a game and had it heralded as a ‘turning point’ but Sunday’s win adds to the total. What’s left to be seen for the belaugered Jays is if this win actually is a turning point,  if their playoff aspirations remain in tact it had better be; ‘it’s early’ is getting closer and closer to ‘there’s always next year’ with every series loss.

GBOAT:

Edwin Encarnacion

Coming into this season there was some doubt about what the “real” Edwin Encarnacion was. Could he possibly match his prodigious  power numbers from last season, or would he regress to something less super human? Over the past couple of weeks EE has managed to eliminate any concerns about whether 2012 was an anomaly, crushing devastating home run after devastating home run.

Encarnacion’s Win Probability Added for the week was a gaudy 26.4%, how did he achieve this? By doing what he does best and hitting the baseball to where even the BABIP Gods couldn’t touch him. Watching from the 100 Level Outfield of the SkyDome on Tuesday night I can attest that Edwin’s 500 Level Bomb was something to behold. If you’ve been living under a rock and haven’t seen the homer in question, I present it to you in GIF form complements of GameReax.

Omar Vizquel Honour of Ineptitude

R.A. Dickey

The defending National League Cy Young Award Winner continued to struggle this week. In his start on Saturday, Dickey was victimized by the long ball giving up 7 runs on 6 hits (3 of which were of the round trip variety) and 2 walks. For those of you keeping track at home that’s 7 runs on just 8 baserunners. Dickey also struck out 5 in his 6 innings pitched. His Win Probabity Added for the Game (and the week) was a nauseating -26.4%. It was an odd day for Dickey as he seemed totally in control until he was suddenly not. As a member of the crowd at the Dome for his start I would have been a lot more upset, but it was a really nice day out, and I live in Canada, I’ve got to enjoy this weather while it’s here.

If the Blue Jays are going to turn this thing around, they are going to need their presumed ace lead the charge. Mr. Dickey got off to a not quite this slow start last season as well, so here’s hoping to a similar turnaround to dominance.

Wrap Up

The Blue Jays open a 4 game set tonight in Tampa Bay facing the division rival Rays, before a 3 game set against the borderline unbearable division leading Boston Red Sox. It’s been said before, and hopefully won’t need to be said again but this is a big week for the Blue Jays if they have any hope of making a claim for one of the American League’s playoff spots.

If they continue to struggle, the Blue Jays fans will need to take comfort in the words of the Starks of Winterfell. Winter is Coming, and so far that’s the only time the Blue Jays have looked like contenders.

May 1, 2013; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista (19) discusses a call at the plate with home plate umpire Bruce Dreckman at the Rogers Centre against the Boston Red Sox. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

The rest of the rotation and an average hitting team are what keeps the Mariners from moving up and challenging the A’s and potentially the Angels. When top prospects James Paxton (Canadian boy), Dannny Hultzen and Taijuan Walker rise up to replace Joe Saunders, Aaron Harang et al., this could be a team that could seriously contend for a division championship.

I figured I might as well lead with the Mariners since there is nothing new to be said about the Blue Jays. Pitching is mediocre in the rotation (7 walks by J.A. Happ last night was putrid), the old adage that hitting is contagious must also apply to NOT hitting because we don’t have one regular hitting above .255. That, my friends, is vile. Other than the bullpen, led by the perfect Casey Janssen, I am thoroughly disappointed. At least our defence seems to have settled down…there’s that…and ummm…hey Colby is up to .253. Yup…

Probable Starters:

Game 1: Felix Hernandez (3-2 .214 opp BAA) vs Ricky Romero (1st start)
Game 2: Hisashi Iwakuma (2-1, .160 opp BAA) vs R.A. Dickey (2-4, 4.50 ERA)
Game 3: Joe Saunders (2-3, 5.25 ERA) vs Brandon Morrow (0-2, 5.29 ERA)

If there is to be a saving grace for Game 1, it’s that Hernandez is 3-3 and has a 3.75 ERA against the Blue Jays lifetime. Mind you that stat is always bogus considering the players change so much from one year to the next but it’s something. If Romero can go 5 and the hitters can scrape together a few runs we may have a chance. Seattle hitters have provided their ace with 3.17 runs per game so far this year, hence the mediocre W-L record…which we mention every year it seems in regards to Hernandez.

Game 2 should be an interesting match-up. R.A. Dickey goes in with a slightly bum neck but is still cleared to play. I wish the blisters that have been bugging Iwakuma come back hardcore. Dickey should have a great shot at holding down the Mariners offence but Iwakuma has some stingy numbers folks. I mean SICK numbers. I see a pitchers duel in this one and a definite low scoring affair overall.

Game 3 should be the one truly no problem game of the lot. Joe Saunders is no longer a Diamondback, when he was at his best. He is now a Mariner who is 0-3 on the road with a bloated ERA of 12.51. Playing against your former team always seems to get players up and Brandon Morrow is no different. In 23.2 inning pitched against Seattle, Morrow has 32 Ks and a tidy 3.04 ERA. He is due for a brilliant start and this would appear to be the game to do it.

Line-Ups:

The following are the probable line-ups for both squads.

Seattle Mariners:

1. CF: Michael Saunders
2. 3B: Kyle Seager
3. DH: Kendry Morales
4. RF: Michael Morse
5. LF: Jason Bay
6. 1B: Justin Smoak
7. 2B: Dustin Ackley
8. C: Jesus Montero
9. SS: Robert Andino

Toronto Blue Jays:

1. 3B: Brett Lawrie
2. DH: Adam Lind
3. RF: Jose Bautista
4. 1B: Edwin Encarnacion
6. LF: Melky Cabrera
7. CF: Colby Rasmus
8. 2B: Maicer Izturis
9. SS: Munenori Kawasaki

I could decimate you with stats. Ok I WILL decimate you with stats: LAST in MLB in average (.228). 22nd in MLB in OPS (.690). 28th in MLB in Team ERA (4.72). 26th in MLB in BAA against (.268). Are we getting the picture? Hack the numbers to bits. The team is a mess. We needed that Boston series. Now we need this Seattle series. 2 out of 3 would be a great start since we have won only one series all season…cross your fingers. The time to worry is growing near.

The Final Word:

The all or nothing approach is failing fast. It may have worked for Chad Mottola in the minors where the pitching is more suspect but in the big leagues the pitching can leave us flailing or being too aggressive. There has been a bit more attention to longer at bats but then there are also a lot of called third strikes happening as well. I wonder if Mottola and Dwayne Murphy have the hitters confused as to what to do. Is it a room divided between both men? It is a thought. Perhaps a little shift in accountability between them may lead to results on the field. If not, I don’t see anything remotely resembling the team this group should be.

Before all the big offseason moves the Blue Jays made you would have thought whoever the new Blue Jays manager is would be crazy to try to fix what wasn’t broken and move Lawrie and Rasmus out of the 1 and 2 spots. Now you would think he’d be crazy to keep them there.

John Gibbons has been asked by several people in the media what he thinks the Blue Jays lineup will look like. Every time he has said it’ll be Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and that the Blue Jays will figure out the rest during Spring Training.

That’s an extremely dangerous 1 through 4 to start the lineup. The last 2 NL batting champions followed by two 40 home run sluggers. Most all-star game lineups don’t start off that well.

They say the first inning of a ball game is always the hardest inning for a starting pitcher cause he’s just getting into the flow of the game. When a pitcher knows he’s facing the Blue Jays he better get into the flow of the game quick or he’s going to get hit hard. All the hitters at the top of the Blue Jays lineup are very good at getting on base so it’s a safe guess the Blue Jays aren’t going to have many 1-2-3 1st innings.

Even if the Blue Jays don’t score any runs in the 1st inning all their hitters at the top of the lineup are great hitters and can have good long patient at bats. It’s a safe guess that you won’t see many pitchers leaving the 1st inning against the Blue Jays with their pitch counts in check.

Jose Reyes gives the Blue Jays a legit leadoff hitter who lead the NL in stolen bases from 2005 – 2007 and just stole 40 bases last season. Melky Cabrera has been great the last 2 seasons and at age 28 is just coming into his prime. Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion are as good a 3-4 combo as there is in the game.

We may not know what Gibbons wants to do with rest of the lineup until Opening Day but we know 1 through 4 will be a force to be reckoned with.

No player on the Toronto Blue Jays has had a legit chance of being awarded MVP since 1993 because that’s how long there playoff drought has been. Now that the Blue Jays could make the playoffs in 2013 the MVP candidates on the team could also win the MVP award.

Jose Bautista, who is still the leader of the Blue Jays because there isn’t a big enough trade or free agent signing in the world to change that, is an obvious MVP candidate. He was the Major League home run leader 2 years in a row and hit 27 home runs last season despite missing the last 2 and a half months of the season. All his offensive numbers in the last 3 years are among the top players in Major League Baseball. Even if he regressed a little he would be a worthy candidate for 2013 AL MVP.

This offseason the AL MVP candidates were Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, Robinson Cano, Adrian Beltre and Josh Hamilton. The Los Angeles Angels didn’t make the playoffs so Trout never had a chance but since the Angels are a big market team and Trout had a historic season he got some recognition. Cano and Beltre weren’t as good as Cabrera, and Josh Hamilton didn’t hit well in the 2nd half of the season. You know who you could argue was as good if not better than these candidates? Edwin Encarnacion. Playoff team or not Edwin should have at least gotten some votes. If the Blue Jays make the playoffs in 2013 and Edwin’s 2012 season wasn’t just a fluke and a reflection of what he’ll perform like in his prime you can definitely assume he’ll be a MVP candidate.

Speaking of being able to repeat 2012 performances, if the Blue Jays new left fielder Melky Cabrera’s 2012 season was a case of a young player being a late bloomer as he enters his prime (kind of like Bautista and Edwin) as opposed to PED’s making him a better hitter, Melky could also be a MVP candidate for the Blue Jays.

Jose Reyes is another of the new Blue Jays who could qualify as a MVP candidate. He’s a very good hitter but the MVP doesn’t usually go to someone who doesn’t hit home runs. At Rogers Centre the triples Reyes is famous for hitting could turn into enough home runs to qualify for MVP, assuming all the other parts of his game are where they were in previous years.

You can be sure when all the Blue Jays moves were being made this offseason none of these guys thought to themselves now I have a chance to be AL MVP. At the end of the day the only thing that matters is winning and making the playoffs. It doesn’t hurt that if the Blue Jays make the playoffs these players can get some real recognition for their season.

Jun 2, 2012; Toronto, ON, Canada; Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista (19) is congratulated by first baseman Edwin Encarnacion (10) in the fifth inning after hitting a solo home run against the Boston Red Sox at the Rogers Centre. The Red Sox beat the Blue Jays 7-4. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-US PRESSWIRE

All season long people had been calling Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder the best hitting duo in baseball. All the World Series preview shows said Cabrera and Fielder are the best hitting duo.

If we’re talking career longevity, Fielder and Cabrera have been the two of the most consistently dangerous hitters in the last 6 years. If we’re talking 2012 and the foreseeable future, don’t go giving them the best hitting duo title just yet.

All season long people had said no other hitting duo even comes close to Cabrera and Fielder ignoring, what Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion were doing for the Blue Jays. You can debate this during the season but at the end of the season the numbers tell you the truth. Unfortunately with Jose Bautista’s injury, Cabrera and Fielder were the best hitting duo.

Was it not even close? Think again.

In 2012 Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion were as deadly a hitting combination as there was. Bautista and EE combined to hit 69 home runs while Cabrera and Fielder combined to hit 74 home runs. The Blue Jays duo fell just 5 shy of the Tigers duo and Bautista missed the last two and a half months of the season. If Bautista stayed healthy they would have easily had the best home run total. You can’t give Bautista credit for something he didn’t do but there’s a very good chance Bautista could have hit at least 40 home runs which would have made Bautista and EE the first duo since David Ortiz (47 home runs) and Manny Ramirez (45 home runs) in 2005 to do that.

Cabrera and Fielder combined to walk 151 times while Bautista and EE walked 143 times, just 8 shy of the Tigers duo. Like the home run totals, if Bautista had stayed healthy he and EE would have easily had the most walks. That shows Bautista and EE had better at bats and pitchers were more afraid of challenging them then they were of challenging Cabrera and Fielder.

2012 was a breakout season for Edwin Encarnacion so there’s no guessing what he’ll do in the coming seasons. He is just turning 30 though so he is in his prime. If 2012 wasn’t just a fluke and Bautista stays healthy there’s a very good chance they will be by far be the best hitting duo in baseball and it won’t even be close whether the American media wants to admit it or not.

September 29, 2012; Toronto, ON, CANADA; Toronto Blue Jays designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion (10) bats against the New York Yankees at the Rogers Centre. Toronto defeated New York 3-2. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-US PRESSWIRE

Which is a shame because the AL recipient, without a doubt, would be Edwin Encarnacion.

EE has improved in almost every offensive statistic this year. Averaging roughly 18 HR, 60 Runs, 65 RBI a year over his MLB career, Edwin enjoyed 42 HR, 93 Runs and 110 RBI this year. His slash line was .280/.384/.557, up from his career average .264/.344/.471 (which included this year). The walk rate improved to 13%, up from a 9.5% average, wOBA increased to .396 up from .353 career average, wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created +) at 152 from an average 114 and ISO (Isolated Power: SLG minus BA) at a whopping .277, up from career average .207. Finally, Edwin’s fWAR reached a career high 4.4, where his previous highest was at 2.0 while playing for the Reds in 2008. While the power was always good for a third baseman, this year Encarnacion shifted to a split DH/1B position, where even his numbers at the most offensive-minded positions are near tops in value around the entire Major League.

Of course there are other candidates that would be eligible for this award, with the 2nd-most deserving being Josh Reddick. The young outfielder has not been around for a long time in the Majors, debuting briefly in 2009, but this year the former Red Sox prospect broke out of his shell. Playing a full season, he swatted 32 HR, scored 85 times, drove in 85 RBI, stayed near career average in all slash line categories, increased the walk rate to 8.2% from career 7.2%, bumped the wOBA by .007 with a .326 season, gained a wRC+ of 108 up from 99, and increased the ISO to .221, up from .201 career. In addition, Reddick gained a 4.8 fWAR (previous highest was last year at 1.9), due mostly to an increase in fielding statistics. The UZR (ultimate zone rating, or the number of runs above/below average a fielder is in facets of range/arm/errors) improved from 8.6 to 18.5, which is 1st in the American League.

Unfortunately, there is no such award. The Comeback Player of the Year will most likely go to Adam Dunn or Alex Rios, since they both came back from a subzero fWAR and improved by a margin of 4.7 and 4.5, respectively. Both Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Reddick will most likely be in the top 10 of AL MVP nominees, but nothing more. Their outstanding seasons will be nothing but a personal fond memory, as neither player’s team won the World Series this year. They should make room in the award season for a Most Improved Player of the Year award so we can honour great achievements in what is hopefully a step forward in a player’s career.

Just like Jose Bautista and his powerhouse 2010 season, maybe there’s nowhere to go but up.

August 23, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Edwin Encarnacion (10) at bat against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

The Hank Aaron Award is presented to each league’s top offensive player, as voted on by a combination of the fans and the media. The award was introduced in 1999 to commemorate the 25th anniversary of Aaron passing Babe Ruth as Major League Baseball’s career home run king.

Encarnacion, who put together a career season which saw him hit .280 with 42 home runs, 100 runs batted in, and a .941 OPS, will face some extremely difficult competition from a field that includes Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera, Angels rookie phenom Mike Trout, and Texas Rangers slugger Josh Hamilton.

While it is an honor to see a player like Encarnacion make the jump and garner a nomination for the award, the fact that the winner is decided by a combination of votes from the fans and media makes it pretty safe to say that the winner will be either Miguel Cabrera or Mike Trout. The argument over which one will win the league Most Valuable Player award is hotly debated amongst fans and the media alike, and that will likely spill over into the Aaron award voting.

With the winner of the Hank Aaron Awards being announced during the World Series, it will also provide a decent gauge for who will eventually win the MVP award as well.