Much of the focus has been on who the Blue Jays should target this offseason to sure up those holes. While that’s obviously important, another aspect is what the Blue Jays should target this offseason, and by that I mean the contracts. Toronto has one of the best farm systems in baseball when it comes to young pitching, and while they’re not yet knocking on the door, they are on their way. When debating what kind of commitments a team should make to talent outside the organization, they should first look at what’s in the pipeline. Think of it like grocery shopping; before going out and spending your money, it’s wise to look at what you currently have in the cupboard, and how long it might last you.

As you can see below, I’ve created a chart with seasons (split into spring and summer, representing roughly April and July) on the X-axis, and starting pitchers on the Y-axis. The only pitchers present are those currently in the organization who I feel have the potential to be above average starters in the American League East, and will establish themselves within the time restraints. Therefore, while Chad Jenkins and Deck McGuire (among others) could be viewed by some as MLB-ready contributors, I’m not of the belief they should be relied upon for more than spot starts at this point in time. The blue bars within the chart are representative of the timeline, between the beginning of 2013 and the end of 2016, in which the pitchers can or will be in the major leagues. For present major leaguers, such as Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero, it’s the years they are currently under contract, with the darkest blue representing an option year. For prospects, the timeline begins when, by my rough estimation, they’ll be ready to contribute in Toronto’s rotation.

As it stands, the Blue Jays currently have four pitchers with the potential to be above average starters available to start in spring training. That number increases to six in the summer, when Drew Hutchison and Kyle Drabek should be making their way back from Tommy John surgery. The pitcher pool grows to seven at the start of 2014, as Sean Nolin, who threw over 100 dominant innings between High-A and Double-A last year, should be major league ready. By mid-2014, the first wave of elite pitching prospects could be surfacing in Toronto, as Noah Syndergaard and Justin Nicolino should move quickly over the next season and a half. In 2015, the pitcher pool reaches its peak at ten names, as Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna make their arrival, while Happ becomes eligible for free agency.

It’s obviously doubtful that all five prospects I mentioned will reach Toronto when I estimate, and even then, as we saw with Drabek and Alvarez over the past two years, there’s no guarantee they’ll live up to expectations when they do. If two or three of those five stick as above average major league starters, the organization will have done an excellent job of player development, and both front office and fan base alike should be jubilant. However, when you combine that prospect quintet with the established regulars and the trio that falls somewhere in between, the Blue Jays are in pretty good shape long term.

On the other hand, if this team wants to contend now, serious changes need to occur. Having just four potentially above average starters ready for the first three-to-four months of 2013 is woefully insufficient, particularly when you consider how poorly two of the four (Romero and Alvarez) pitched for a majority of 2012. Be it through free agency or trade, the Blue Jays need to find a high end pitcher. In the chart below, I’ve added “Pitcher A”, a new acquisition who is signed through at least 2016 (i.e. a four-plus year deal).

The immediate rotation is substantially improved, and the 2014 pitching staff has significantly more depth and versatility. Things begin to clog up in 2015, however, as even with Happ no longer in the organization, the number of potential major league starters balloons to 11. This shouldn’t be viewed as a negative, as while 11 pitchers for five spots seems precarious, the reality is, at least two or three of those pitchers are likely to suffer a serious arm injury at some point over the next three years. That’s just the way baseball is; there’s no way around it. But what happens if one of those arm injuries happens in the near future? I pray it doesn’t occur, and am knocking on wood as I write this, but what happens if Brandon Morrow were to suffer a season ending injury in May? For the next three months, you’d be resting your playoff hopes on the shoulders of Romero, “Pitcher A”, Happ, Alvarez, and Chad Jenkins. That’s an unsettling feeling, and is why “Pitcher B” enters the equation in the chart below.

Finding a good pitcher on a one year deal is easier than you might imagine. Names like Josh Johnson, Matt Garza, and even R.A. Dickey have been bantered about in trade talks, while someone like Dan Haren or Brandon McCarthy may seek a one year deal in free agency to re-establish their value. Whoever he is, “Pitcher B” considerably improves the 2013 rotation, pushing Henderson Alvarez to Triple-A as the invaluable sixth starter. In the second half, the starting pitcher pool has grown to eight names, which is exactly the type of depth a team needs if they hope to make a push for the postseason. The other added bonus to a acquiring a second pitcher on a one year deal is that in 2014, only Romero, Morrow, and “Pitcher A” would have guaranteed salaries. J.A. Happ is non-tenderable if he were to disappoint, while all of the young guys/prospects save Drabek have three options (he has two). Depth, controllability, and flexibility are three of the most important factors when building a pitching staff, and with the scenario I laid out above, the Blue Jays would have a nice balance of all three over the next four seasons.

With Carreno out of the running, the field narrowed to three choices; Chad Jenkins, Drew Hutchison, and Jesse Chavez. While Chavez was the veteran of the group – at 28 years old he already had 152.2 major league innings under his belt – I instantly felt like he had a 0% chance of receiving the call. If it was a one-and-done appearance, maybe, but there’s likely at least three to four starts available for the team’s fifth starter over the next few weeks, and that’s far too many innings to hand a journeyman.

In a surprising yet unsurprising move, the Blue Jays handed the start to Hutchison. The move was surprising given his age (21) and experience (234.2 career innings), but at the same time, Hutchison is easily the best pitcher we have in the farm system that is on the cusp of being major league ready. General manager Alex Anthopoulos obviously believes that, with three former or current pitching coaches on the Jays’ staff, Hutchison’s lack of experience shouldn’t be much of a hindrance. With the decision formally made, the questions now turn to results, both in the present and the future.

In the long term, Hutchison projects to be a middle of the rotation starter. His stuff is not overpowering, but the total package of pitches grades out as above average, and he has exceptional command –- the best in the system, according to Baseball America. His bread and butter pitch is his fastball, though he throws multiple variations. The four seamer has nice velocity, sitting at 90-93 mph, but is relatively straight. With the two seamer, Hutchison trades velocity for movement, dropping down to 88-91 mph, but significantly increasing the arm side movement. With his frequent usage of a two seam fastball, it’s unsurprising that he uses a circle grip on his changeup, forcing the pitch to fade down and away in a similar fashion. He has shown good feel for the pitch, and it will be an asset in neutralizing left handed hitters. Hutchison also throws a slider, a pitch he uses comfortably against all batters. At times it has shown excellent two-plane movement, but in other situations, it has slowed down and becomes more of a saggy slurve. The pitch is at maximum effectiveness in the 83-85 mph range, with the problems occurring at lower velocity.

Hutchison is very polished for a 21-year-old, and his biggest obstacle may be finding consistency with his slider. That is not necessarily something you want to figure out at the major league level, so he could rely heavily upon his other three pitches early on, using the slider exclusively counts in which he doesn’t need to be perfect with it. He has benefited greatly by his crossfire action, as during his delivery he will step to the right side of his body with his left foot before finishing the pitch. He further accentuates the deception by working from the third base side of the rubber, which, from a right-handed hitter’s perspective, makes the release point extremely difficult to discern. Also working to his advantage is his pitchability, as Hutchison is capable of adding and subtracting from his pitches to upset timing and set hitters up. Perhaps more than any single pitch, he’ll need to rely upon these traits (deception, pitch sequencing) to find success early on in his career.

Al Skorupa of Bullpen Banter recorded some excellent video of Hutchison and his delivery last season. You can see his delivery from the perspective of a hitter beginning around the 6:30 mark. Additionally, their website has an extensive scouting report as well as animated GIFs of his various pitches in action, so be sure to check it out.

Dustin McGowan is out until at least mid-May, and with no more off days until May 7, Hutchison appears ticketed for four starts. The first, as most know, is today, when the Blue Jays are in Kansas City. It’s still early, but the Royals feature a lineup that is 12th in the AL in runs scored, with only 45 in the team’s first 12 games. Furthermore, they’re dead last in the AL in walks with only 28. It’s hard to suggest that a 21-year-old making his major league debut will find success, but a deceptive delivery against impatient hitters certainly plays in the pitcher’s favor.

The next three starts will see Hutchison facing much more capable opponents. He is currently on track to pitch in Baltimore on the 26th, at home against Texas on May 1, and then in Los Angeles to face Albert Pujols and the Angels on May 6. It’s doubtful Toronto would pull the plug on Hutchison prior to May 7 given that he’s now on the 40-man roster, but these four starts will act as an excellent barometer for the rest of his season. If he struggles, he’ll find himself back in Double-A with a new outlook on what needs improvement. If he succeeds, the Blue Jays will have a very interesting problem to deal with once McGowan eventually returns from the disabled list.

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Drew Hutchison, Deck McGuire, Chad Jenkins and Joel Carreno all return to the rotation, and all four hurlers will be knocking on the major-league door by season’s end. Right-hander Ryan Tepera is the only new starter after making 23 starts for High-A Dunedin in 2011.

A.J. Jimenez, considered the best defensive catcher in the Jays’ minor league system, makes his Double-A debut after putting together a breakout year on both sides of the ball with Dunedin last season. Brian Jeroloman, who spent the majority of last season with Triple-A Las Vegas, will return to New Hampshire to be the backup.

The infield will look very familiar, as all the players outside shortstop Ryan Goins were with the Fisher Cats last year. One new addition from outside the organization is first baseman Koby Clemens, a true power hitter that is indeed the son of former Blue Jays pitcher and Cy Young winner Roger Clemens.

Outside of John Tolisano, a second baseman that can dabble in the outfield, the Fisher Cats’ outfield will be made up entirely of players who spent all or most of the 2011 campaign with High-A Dunedin: Brian Van Kirk, Brad McElroy, Brad Glenn and familiar face Justin Jackson, who appeared in two separate stints with the Fisher Cats last season.

Here’s the full list:

Pitchers

RHP Drew Hutchison

RHP Deck McGuire

RHP Chad Jenkins

RHP Joel Carreno

RHP Ryan Tepera

RHP Yohan Pino

RHP Ronald Uviedo

LHP Evan Crawford

LHP Danny Farquhar

RHP Boomer Potts

RHP Matt Daly

RHP Fernando Hernandez

LHP Aaron Loup

Catchers

A.J. Jimenez

Brian Jeroloman

Infielders

1B Mike McDade

1B Koby Clemens

2B John Tolisano

SS Ryan Goins

3B Kevin Howard

3B Mark Sobolewski

SS Jonathan Diaz

Outfielders

LF Brian Van Kirk

CF Brad McElroy

RF Brad Glenn

OF Justin Jackson

-JM

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March 17, 2012; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays relief pitcher Drew Hutchison (69) pitches in the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE

To say last season’s rookie crop of Blue Jays was impressive would be an understatement. In Brett Lawrie, Kyle Drabek and J.P. Arencibia, the club promoted arguably their three top prospects; an extremely rare sight in the overprotective environment of modern day baseball.

While the results weren’t always there, all three exceeded the 130 at-bat or 50 innings pitched limits set in place by Major League Baseball. It’s a bittersweet scenario for Lawrie, as with 150 at-bats in 2011, he surpassed the threshold by less than a week’s worth of games and would have been one of the early favorites for Rookie of the Year. Beyond the big three, another pitcher lost his eligibility last season: Henderson Alvarez. In a situation similar to Lawrie, Alvarez only just edged past the limit, totaling 63.2 innings in his August and September starts.

While the potential rookie crop for this season lacks star power, it has legitimate depth that could both patch holes created by injuries and strengthen a Blue Jays team looking to contend in the second half. As we’re looking at players projected to exceed 130 at-bats and 50 innings, top prospects who are doubtful to debut before September – such as Travis d’Arnaud and Anthony Gose – will be excluded. They’ll have to wait until next year.

The biggest name expected to receive a promotion this year is Drew Hutchison. The 21-year-old Hutchison cruised through three minor league levels in 2011, finishing the year with three starts in Double-A. While three starts above A-ball doesn’t sound like the description for a potential call-up, Hutch’s combination of a well rounded arsenal, excellent command and baseball intelligence should allow him to competently face Major League hitters by the All-Star break. Two other members of the impressive New Hampshire rotation, Chad Jenkins and Deck McGuire, could feasibly be up before him. Neither has the upside of Hutchison, but the two former college pitchers are very polished and should be the first to receive the call should the injury bug strike the rotation early in the season.

The farm also has some ammo for the bullpen, as the recently demoted Joel Carreno and Evan Crawford are both big-league ready. Carreno had a 15-inning taste of Toronto last September, looking very impressive with a 1.15 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Crawford, meanwhile, spent the entire season in Double-A, but turned heads with an impressive Arizona Fall League assignment. The two are simply on the wrong end of the numbers game, as the offseason acquisitions of Sergio Santos, Francisco Cordero, Darren Oliver, and Jason Frasor stocked the cupboards in Toronto. Working to the advantage of Crawford is his left handedness, as only Luis Perez and the aforementioned Oliver sit above him on the depth chart.

With 71 at-bats to his name already, 25 year old David Cooper is all but guaranteed to lose his rookie eligibility this season. He is currently blocked at first base and designated hitter by Adam Lind and Edwin Encarnacion respectively, but an injury to either player could result in a serious run for the 2008 first-round pick. It’s doubtful he’ll ever live up to his draft status, but as a left-handed bat with a solid plate approach, he could provide value to the team in short bursts.

The last two position players with legitimate shots of exceeding 130 at-bats this season are Adeiny Hechavarria and Moises Sierra, both of whom will start the season with Triple-A Las Vegas. The depth charts for the two, however, are very different. The team has a dearth of middle infield prospects in the upper levels, so Hechavarria is the first (and only) replacement should Yunel Escobar or Kelly Johnson spend any time on the disabled list. In a complete contrast, the corner outfield position is loaded both at the Major League and minor league levels. Jose Bautista is entrenched in right field, while Travis Snider and Eric Thames are waging a war in left field to determine the Opening Day starter. Whoever loses the battle in left will be sent to join Sierra in the Triple-A outfield, and would be the first callup. The club also has Rajai Davis and Ben Francisco on the roster to serve as the 4th and 5th outfielders. For Sierra to get an extended look, he likely needs both a trade and an injury to occur, making his best case scenario a debut after the July 31st trade deadline.

Unlike last year, it’s very doubtful any of these players will head north with the club, making it difficult to predict a favorite for Toronto’s best contender for the 2012 AL Rookie of the Year award. With that being said, of these eight players, I feel McGuire has the best chance. Hutchison is the best pitcher of the group, but even with impressive numbers it’s hard for a starter to contend for the award with only two or three months of work. McGuire, on the other hand, has the potential for five-plus months of big league time if injury or ineffectiveness were to strike the big league rotation early. Strong command of a four-pitch repertoire should allow the 22-year-old to keep hitters uncomfortable his first time through the league. With that being said, the American League has Matt Moore, Jesus Montero, and Mike Trout – not to mention that Yu Darvish guy – so it’s doubtful any Blue Jay sniffs the top 3 in voting.

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The two chat about the upcoming winter caravan and the feeling amongst the Jays’ fan base both around the city and at the ballpark, with Farrell adding that “it’s an exciting time to be following the Blue Jays”. They talk about Farrell’s first year as manager, where he repeats, from an interview earlier in the year, that he needs to do a better job handling the bullpen and how it was difficult going from being in charge of 12-14 pitchers to a full 25-man roster.

Bullpen-wise, come spring training, Farrell feels that there are more defined roles unlike last year where it was a “by committee” approach. Farrell adds that Santos marks “where the blueprint really begins” and the organization has a clearer picture heading into the start of spring training. Farrell gets into specifics about how he can improve his handling of the bullpen next season, citing that things will be easier since there are more known commodities in the individual pitchers in the bullpen and that he better understands what their capabilities are .

“I ran from some guys when they didn’t perform as expected, and I think I need to trust the belief in them and ride them in some rocky times,” Farrell admitted, eventually adding that he was, at times, reluctant to go back to a guy right away if he didn’t pitch well the night before.

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Promoted (more…)

Highlights include clutch hitting, great pitching, and back-to-back balks in New Hampshire, Asher Wojciechowski and Deck McGuire continuing to impress in Dunedin, and even more solid pitching from Drew Hutchison and Sean Nolin in Lansing.

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Highlights include an unbelievable five-run ninth inning to give the Fisher Cats their second straight walk-off win, Brett Lawrie continuing to rake in Vegas, and a well balanced attack in Lansing for a solid team win. (more…)

#16: Andrew S. Hutchison

image courtesy of battersbox.ca

Right Handed Pitcher /  20 years old / 6’2″ 165 lbs

Born: August 22nd 1990, in Lakeland Florida

Bats Left   Throws Right

High School Team: Lakeland Dreadnaughts

College: Had a commitment to the Stetson University Hatters before signing with the Jays, and actually did make it there for 3 days only before signing with the Jays.

Drafted: in the 15th round of the 2009 draft, 460th overall.

Signed: for $400,000 and 8 semesters of paid education. An amount that is well above slot for the 15th rd.  No other disclosed bonus in the 15th rd of the 2009 draft was above the $260,000 mark, so Drew’s bonus stands out.

Quick Facts: (more…)