May 12, 2013; Boston, MA USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Chad Jenkins (64) pitches during the first inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

You know Fenway Park right?

The hitter’s paradise where leads are never safe and balls fly out of the park like a video game on Rookie Mode.

But once again baseball reminded you that it makes no sense.

Ramon Ortiz started the first game of the series. He hadn’t started a game in the big leagues in 2 years! He pitched 5 shutout innings at Fenway Park! You’re a probably a liar if you say you saw that coming.

Mark Buehrle’s overpaid. He can’t pitch in the AL East. AA made a mistake acquiring him. His contract’s going to be a burden. That’s been the consensus among most of the Jays fan base right now. A little bit harsh but you wouldn’t have been able to argue it.

Mark Buehrle had given up at least 5 runs in all of his starts. The last thing the Jays needed was Buehrle doing that. The Red Sox had Clay Bucholz on the mound. He was arguably the best pitcher in baseball till now.

To most people’s shock Buehrle came through big time. He cruised through the Red Sox lineup and gave up just one run in 7+ innings like he took a time machine to the 2000’s. Mark Buehrle also didn’t give up a homerun, in Fenway! For a guy that’s already given up 11 homeruns that’s quite an accomplishment.

Chad Jenkins was injured. He came off the DL and made one start in Double A. His 2nd start was the 3rd game of the Red Sox series. Ryan Dempster was on the mound for the Red Sox.

I was so sure the Blue Jays were going to lose I was actually upset to not see David Ortiz start the game. If you told me the final score was going to be 12-4, I would have assumed the Red Sox were the 12.

But Jenkins gave the Blue Jays 5 innings of 2 run ball.

For all we know the Red Sox could have just been in a slump. Even if they were they still have a very talented lineup so not just anyone can give you a good outing against them especially at Fenway.

August 7, 2012; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Chad Jenkins (64) throws a pitch in the sixth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 4-1.Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Now right-hander Chad Jenkins is one of those players.

A starter for most of his minor league career, Jenkins has had middling results in the Blue Jays system, posting just a 4.12 ERA and a 6.0 K/9 ratio over his first 3 minor league seasons.

Still, with Toronto needing healthy arms, Jenkins was promoted in August and Jenkins has made 10 appearances for the big club, but the results have not been as kind. In those 10 appearances, Jenkins has surrendered 10 earned runs (including 2 or more in each of his last 3 outings) over 18 innings. His K/9 ratio has also diminished to just 3.9 while in Toronto, indicating that he is not fooling many hitters.

However, John Farrell has seen enough to give Jenkins the ball on Sunday afternoon, allowing the rookie to make his first major league start in the finale against the Rays. The need for a six-man rotation was created by Monday’s double-header in New York, so Jenkins is the lucky recipient of that role.

Prior to the season, Jenkins did not appear on Baseball Prospectus’s list of top 20 Blue Jays prospects, in what is decidedly a pitching rich system. Overall, he profiles more as an innings-eater if he maintains a spot in the rotation, his long-term prospects for the majors are better as a reliever, where he’ll need to find a way to increase his strike-out rates if he wants to succeed.

But for now, he can ride the wave of emotions and make the most of his first shot, hopefully giving the Blue Jays the shot in the arm they really need to close out the season on a high note.

August 7, 2012; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Chad Jenkins (64) throws a pitch in the sixth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 4-1.Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Chad Jenkins was not having a very good year in Double-A when he received the promotion to Toronto back on August 5th. Jenkins had spent the better part of last year with the Fisher Cats, and his re-assignment to the club in the spring was not a surprise. His performance, however, was.

In 16 starts for the team in 2011, Jenkins pitched to a 4.13 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with a respectable strikeout rate of 6.64 per nine innings. When a team sends a player back to the same minor league level, they both hope and expect to see some improvements. With Jenkins, the reverse was true. Through 20 starts in 2012, he was sitting on an ugly 4.96 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. His strikeout rate, which had already been fringy, plummeted to a Henderson Alvarez-like 4.49 per nine innings.

Even so, the Blue Jays were in dire need of an arm, so Chad Jenkins got the call. The role the team had in mind for him came as a bit of a shock, as after spending his entire minor league career in the rotation – totaling 73 starts – Jenkins was assigned to the bullpen. As Jon Lott of the National Post wrote in an article on Monday, it’s a role Jenkins appears to enjoy;

“I had those days off, and I just got that urge to throw again. Now it’s like, every time that phone rings, my head snaps around and I’m like, ‘Is it me? Is it me?’ It brings more excitement to the game for me, knowing that I could possibly get in every day.”

Jenkins has only appeared in six games for the big club, but it’s enough of a sample size that we can get some idea of the type of stuff he possesses. In those six games, Jenkins has thrown a total of 92 pitches, with the following distribution: 70 fastballs/sinkers (76.1%), 16 sliders (17.4%), 6 changeups (6.5%). The velocity hasn’t been quite as advertised, as after scouting reports suggested he sat in the low 90’s and touched as high as 96 mph, the PitchFX data has told a different story. The fastball has averaged 90.9 mph (which agrees with the eye test, as it seems nearly every pitch pops 91), and has peaked at just 93 mph. Both numbers are still above average, but don’t quite live up to the hype of years past. On the other hand, the movement on the pitch has been as expected, with plus-life very similar another Blue Jays pitcher, Henderson Alvarez.

Above all else, the slider has been the most pleasant surprise to me. Averaging a solid 83.8 mph, the pitch has been an excellent change of pace for Jenkins, in place of his seldom-used changeup. Of his 16 sliders thrown, only 7 have been in the strike zone, yet he’s racked up 12 strikes. That suggests hitters have had a hard time picking up the pitch out of his hand, and even when they do, the movement makes it difficult to square up. Whether or not he’ll be able to maintain that success as tape gets around on him is another question, but for now, he’s baffling hitters.

While both his fastball and slider appear to be above average offerings, neither has the elite potential you want to see from a late inning reliever. Jenkins’ future likely lies in either the sixth/seventh inning or as the long man/spot starter in the bullpen, as his lack of a solid third pitch makes a legitimate future in the starting rotation unlikely, especially in the AL East. It’s a less than ideal outcome for a first round pick, but given the volatility of minor league baseball and the lack of depth in the 2009 draft, it’s actually not too bad. Of the 29 players drafted after Jenkins in the first and supplemental first round, only seven have made the major leagues. One of those seven is Mike Trout – who all of baseball whiffed on – and another is top prospect Tyler Skaggs, but for the most part it’s not exactly a jaw dropping group. The team has added a number of relievers to the roster over the past couple of months, but with a number of impending free agents and others recovering from serious arm injuries, the experience Jenkins is gaining this year could prove extremely valuable in 2013.

March 17, 2012; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays relief pitcher Drew Hutchison (69) pitches in the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE

To say last season’s rookie crop of Blue Jays was impressive would be an understatement. In Brett Lawrie, Kyle Drabek and J.P. Arencibia, the club promoted arguably their three top prospects; an extremely rare sight in the overprotective environment of modern day baseball.

While the results weren’t always there, all three exceeded the 130 at-bat or 50 innings pitched limits set in place by Major League Baseball. It’s a bittersweet scenario for Lawrie, as with 150 at-bats in 2011, he surpassed the threshold by less than a week’s worth of games and would have been one of the early favorites for Rookie of the Year. Beyond the big three, another pitcher lost his eligibility last season: Henderson Alvarez. In a situation similar to Lawrie, Alvarez only just edged past the limit, totaling 63.2 innings in his August and September starts.

While the potential rookie crop for this season lacks star power, it has legitimate depth that could both patch holes created by injuries and strengthen a Blue Jays team looking to contend in the second half. As we’re looking at players projected to exceed 130 at-bats and 50 innings, top prospects who are doubtful to debut before September – such as Travis d’Arnaud and Anthony Gose – will be excluded. They’ll have to wait until next year.

The biggest name expected to receive a promotion this year is Drew Hutchison. The 21-year-old Hutchison cruised through three minor league levels in 2011, finishing the year with three starts in Double-A. While three starts above A-ball doesn’t sound like the description for a potential call-up, Hutch’s combination of a well rounded arsenal, excellent command and baseball intelligence should allow him to competently face Major League hitters by the All-Star break. Two other members of the impressive New Hampshire rotation, Chad Jenkins and Deck McGuire, could feasibly be up before him. Neither has the upside of Hutchison, but the two former college pitchers are very polished and should be the first to receive the call should the injury bug strike the rotation early in the season.

The farm also has some ammo for the bullpen, as the recently demoted Joel Carreno and Evan Crawford are both big-league ready. Carreno had a 15-inning taste of Toronto last September, looking very impressive with a 1.15 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Crawford, meanwhile, spent the entire season in Double-A, but turned heads with an impressive Arizona Fall League assignment. The two are simply on the wrong end of the numbers game, as the offseason acquisitions of Sergio Santos, Francisco Cordero, Darren Oliver, and Jason Frasor stocked the cupboards in Toronto. Working to the advantage of Crawford is his left handedness, as only Luis Perez and the aforementioned Oliver sit above him on the depth chart.

With 71 at-bats to his name already, 25 year old David Cooper is all but guaranteed to lose his rookie eligibility this season. He is currently blocked at first base and designated hitter by Adam Lind and Edwin Encarnacion respectively, but an injury to either player could result in a serious run for the 2008 first-round pick. It’s doubtful he’ll ever live up to his draft status, but as a left-handed bat with a solid plate approach, he could provide value to the team in short bursts.

The last two position players with legitimate shots of exceeding 130 at-bats this season are Adeiny Hechavarria and Moises Sierra, both of whom will start the season with Triple-A Las Vegas. The depth charts for the two, however, are very different. The team has a dearth of middle infield prospects in the upper levels, so Hechavarria is the first (and only) replacement should Yunel Escobar or Kelly Johnson spend any time on the disabled list. In a complete contrast, the corner outfield position is loaded both at the Major League and minor league levels. Jose Bautista is entrenched in right field, while Travis Snider and Eric Thames are waging a war in left field to determine the Opening Day starter. Whoever loses the battle in left will be sent to join Sierra in the Triple-A outfield, and would be the first callup. The club also has Rajai Davis and Ben Francisco on the roster to serve as the 4th and 5th outfielders. For Sierra to get an extended look, he likely needs both a trade and an injury to occur, making his best case scenario a debut after the July 31st trade deadline.

Unlike last year, it’s very doubtful any of these players will head north with the club, making it difficult to predict a favorite for Toronto’s best contender for the 2012 AL Rookie of the Year award. With that being said, of these eight players, I feel McGuire has the best chance. Hutchison is the best pitcher of the group, but even with impressive numbers it’s hard for a starter to contend for the award with only two or three months of work. McGuire, on the other hand, has the potential for five-plus months of big league time if injury or ineffectiveness were to strike the big league rotation early. Strong command of a four-pitch repertoire should allow the 22-year-old to keep hitters uncomfortable his first time through the league. With that being said, the American League has Matt Moore, Jesus Montero, and Mike Trout – not to mention that Yu Darvish guy – so it’s doubtful any Blue Jay sniffs the top 3 in voting.

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This year was Beck’s first big league spring training, and the 26-year-old allowed a pair of earned runs on four hits in three innings of work with two walks and three strikeouts. The Texas native made his major league debut as a September call-up in 2011 and could be one of the first options summoned from Triple-A Las Vegas in the event of an injury.

Farquhar, 25, appeared in only one game this spring, allowing one earned run on two hits in one inning of the Jays’ spring opener versus the Pirates back on March 3. Known for his funky submarine delivery and the ability to throw from different arm slots, the right-hander was reacquired by the Jays last season after being traded to Oakland in the move that brought Rajai Davis to Toronto.

Crawford, 25, had an outside chance of breaking camp with the Jays, but did impress manager John Farrell and Co. in his three scoreless outings with five strikeouts. After being a mainstay in the New Hampshire Fisher Cats’ bullpen last season and being added to Toronto’s 40-man roster, Crawford will likely open the year with Triple-A Las Vegas and be the first call-up if the Jays need a left-hander out of the ‘pen.

Jenkins, 24, opened some eyes this spring after allowing just one earned run on five hits in eight strong innings of work. He changed the grip on his changeup while tightening up the rest of his game, and the 2009 first-round pick should be a prospect to keep your eye on this season.

Carreno, 25, made his major league debut last as a September call-up last season out of the bullpen after being a key cog in Double-A New Hampshire’s starting rotation. He made three relief appearances this spring and gave up three earned runs on four hits with three strikeouts, but was sent to minor league camp when pitchers started getting stretched out because he’s going to be a starter with Triple-A Las Vegas this season and needed to pitch longer than just two innings.

- JM

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It seems that the first of what should be many promotions for pitchers from HiA Dunedin to AA New Hampshire has just taken place, as RHP Chad Jenkins (23) joins the Fishercats. The Kennesaw State product was selected int he 1st rd of the 2009 draft, 20th overall, and you can read the JJ Analysis on him here.

Through 11 starts in Dunedin, Chad has the following stats: (more…)

We’re not the only ones to call him the best pitching prospect of late in the Jays minors system. The Southpaw placed him first in a recent article, and Woodman663 of Blue Bird Banter voices his support for promoting him to AA here.

The 22-year old, along with team mate A.J. Jimenez, is growing the number of fans that are paying close attention to his performances every time he plays. What has he done to deserve such close attention and accolades? (more…)

#29: Stephen Chadwick Jenkins

Image courtesy of The Canadian Press

Pitcher / 23 years old / 6′4″ 225 lbs

Born: December 22nd, 1987 in Chattanooga, TN

Bats: Right Throws: Right

High School: Cherokee H.S. (Canton, GA)

College Team: Kennesaw State Owls

Drafted By: The Toronto Blue Jays in the 1st round (20th overall) of the 2009 First-Year-Player Draft

Jersey Number: #18 for the Dunedin Blue Jays

(more…)

#50: Ryan Dennis Tepera

image courtesy of blogs.chron.com

23 years old / 6’1″ 180 lbs

Born: November 3rd 1987 in Lake Jackson, Texas

Bats Right    Throws Right

High School Team: Brazoswood HS

College: Sam Huston State University

Drafted: by the Jays in the 19th rd, 580th overall, of the ’09 First-Year Player Draft

Wears: #12 for the Lansing Lugnuts in 2010 (more…)

I will start by saying that this year, more than ever, my list is close to being in line with BA’s list, which was compiled by Nathan Rode this year.

My current Top 10 followed by Nathan’s ranks in brackets next to the player’s name.

1. Kyle Drabek, SP (1)
2. J.P. Arencibia, C (7)
3. Anthony Gose, CF (3)
4. Adeiny Hechavarria, SS (not in Nathan’s top 10)
5. Jacob Marisnick, OF (10)
6. Travis D’Arnaud, C (4)
7. Asher Wojciechowski, SP (6)
8. Zach Stewart, SP (5)
9. Carlos Perez, C (8)
10. William “Deck” McGuire, SP (2)

I’ll address the big one first since there’s an elephant in the room named Adeiny Hechavarria. Nathan’s not the only one who doubts Adeiny Hechavarria‘s skills, and it wouldn’t be the first time that a Cuban prospect didn’t pan out as expected. However, I do believe that many people overlook the impact that culture shock can have and that in Adeiny’s case, they also overlook the vast improvements he made as the season went along despite moving up to a higher level during a prolonged slump. After all, the Jays didn’t hand Adeiny a 4 year $10 million contract just to see him play in HiA Dunedin.

I won’t lie, Adeiny’s stats – on the surface – look a little uninspiring. A .273 average in AA with a meager .305 OBP and only 3 HRs. However, when we compare this to the .193 average and .217 OBP he had in HiA before making the jump, we can see the vast improvements Adeiny made. What’s more, if we double his AA stats to see an approximate number based on 500 or so ABs, with Adeiny hitting the same marks in terms of average/OPB/SLG, he would have hit 20 doubles, 5 HRs, and stolen about 10 bases. That, at 21 years old playing in AA, is nothing to sneeze at. Add in the .963 fielding percentage and the aforementioned culture shock he faced all season long, and you’ve got real potential to see a breakthrough for Adeiny in 2011.

All I’m saying here is that I believe many, if not most, have given up too quickly on Adeiny’s skills to make an impact as a high-end MLB player. I think they wanted to see massive production and massive numbers right off-the-bat due to the hype and the contract he signed, and that the criticism was more severe as a result. He remains the highest ceiling middle infielder in the minors for the Jays although he could quickly be joined by Shane Opitz and Richard Thon – two players I’ll be covering in a near-future post.

Should Adeiny be judged lightly due to his personal circumstances? In my opinion, yes. Therefore, he definitely belongs on the top 10 list because if he can do what he did in AA at 21 in the midst of a culture shock, I can’t wait to see what he does in 2011 now that he’s more comfortable an adjusted to North American life. If not rated as highly as 4th on the top 10 as I have him listed, he still belongs well above the top 9-10 mark. (more…)