Sep 4, 2012; Toronto, ON, Canada; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Carlos Villanueva (33) delivers a pitch against the Baltimore Orioles as rain falls because the maintenance staff is unable to close the roof after it got stuck during the game at the Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-US PRESSWIRE

What’s amazing is that many of the media and fans that think this are over the age of 14 because everyone 15 or older knows how employment works. Jobs in sports are just like jobs everywhere else. Villanueva has never started for a full 6 month season before. If you work at McDonald’s, the most simplistic minimum job there is, they give you a 3 month probation period before they commit to hiring you. If it takes 3 months to evaluate someone’s ability to use a cashier, cook fast food and sweep floors before you give them the job then it only makes sense that a big league pitcher shouldn’t be guaranteed a contract from less than half a season’s worth of starts. Even if you had previous employment at a McDonald’s you still have to go through a probation period. So the fact that Villanueva made a bunch of starts last season doesn’t really count for much either.

Another argument for keeping Villanueva is that the Bluejays are so desperate for starting pitching that he’s worth giving an extension to. It’s true that the Bluejays are desperate for starting pitching. If there serious about contending in 2013 though they’d be better off getting proven starters that you know for a fact can pitch full seasons instead of just hoping Villanueva can pitch deep into a season.

You could argue that the Bluejays might give Adeiny Hechavarria the job at 2nd base next season despite his lack of experience. Starting pitching is a much bigger role than other positions though. The Bluejays have such a good offense you can afford to let Hechavarria play 2nd base. Starting pitching is such a big part of a successful baseball team though. Just like McDonald’s if all your employees are good you can afford to hire 1 person with inexperience. However, when it comes to hiring managers they want to hire someone they ae completely sure of because it’s a much bigger role.

Can the Blue Jays bank on Carlos Villanueva’s arm in 2013? Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-US PRESSWIRE

Carlos Villanueva answered that call.

Villanueva was already rock solid for Toronto out of the bullpen in 2012, going 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA and 36 strike-outs over 33.1 innings pitched out of the pen. However, it has been his transition to dependable starter that has been of most value to the Blue Jays. Through Thursday, Villanueva had made 13 starts in 2012 and thrown 78 innings, accruing a 5-5 record with a 3.58 ERA. His strike-out numbers dipped only slightly, from 9.7 to 8.4 per 9 innings pitched. Furthermore, his strike-out to walk ratio actually improved drastically from 1.71 as a reliever to 3.65 as a starter.

Now, with Villanueva set to become a free agent, if not offered arbitration, at the end of the season, Toronto is forced to place a value on him and needs to determine if it is as a starter or as a reliever, something Alex Anthopoulos is openly cautious about.

If he Anthopoulos examines Villenueva’s career splits, he’ll know that Villanueva is valued best out of the bullpen.

Through 245 career appearances out of the bullpen, Villanueva has a career mark of 17-13, with 3.76 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and averages a strike-out per inning. Flipping the coin and looking at his statistics as a starter, where he has made 53 career appearances, Villanueva has posted a losing record of 16-20 and his ERA jumps to 4.57 and his WHIP to 1.349, while his strike-out rate plummets to 6.4 per 9 innings pitched. Opposing batters also have an OPS nearly 100 point higher against him as a starter than as a reliever.

That said, the Jays can make a risky decision if they choose to keep Villanueva in 2013.

They can offer him arbitration, which he is 3rd-year arbitration eligible already, but they will do so knowing that he will be asking for a big raise based on his 2012 performance. Depending on the demands, an arbitrator will look only at the last season’s body of work and make an appropriate decision if the two sides cannot come to an agreement in the middle.

Likewise, they can choose not to tender him an offer, granting him free agency. As a 28-year-old who has been inconsistent at best, this may be the best path to go, but they run the risk of also losing him to the market. There are some intriguing names available on the market this winter, but the free agent reliever market has also become an expensive albatross for some teams and can be a bigger crap shoot than banking on Villanueva to repeat his 2012 campaign.

In the end, it is all just a roll of the dice and living with the wager.

May 23, 2012; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays left fielder Eric Thames (not pictured) bat and helmet on the ground after he batted against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

If anyone had any expectation of the Jays pulling themselves a little closer to a wild card spot while they took care of business against the Seattle Mariners, they were just flat out wrong. That was also my expectation, so I stand corrected along with you! The Jays were playing in a stadium that had a ton of people cheering them on, against a team that was well under .500, and against a team that was struggling to score runs. The Jays fell flat and are flying out of Seattle having been swept in a series they should have won.

The part that may sting most, however, is how Eric Thames was able to deliver a knock out punch and help his new team get the W. His 4th HR of the season was a no-doubter and drove in 2 RBI, the difference in this game. Watching him round the bases, I couldn’t help but cheer him on, just a little, with the hopes that the Jays would mount a comeback.

Carlos Villanueva was cruising at the start of this game, easily making his way through the first 3 innings but eventually made some mistakes that hurt him. This was his first loss of the season and could have been a win if the Jays were able to score a decent amount of runs. Of note was the fact that Brad Lincoln made his Jays debut and threw 1.1 scoreless innings, needing only 7 pitches to get the job done! (more…)

July 21, 2012; Boston, MA, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher

There have been many surprising performances from the Jays as a whole this season. I don’t think anyone expected Edwin Encarnacion to become the power house he is, and I doubt anyone guessed that Aaron Laffey would become a very important piece of the rotation for a good chunk of the season. But, if there’s one thing we all expected, it was for the Jays to lean heavily on Carlos Villanueva when the going got tough. And that’s exactly what has happened this season, as he continues to earn every single cent he’s making this season.

Carlos Villanueva is the chameleon of the Jays staff. So far in 2012, he has started 5 games, finished 9, and pitched in a total of 27, good for 61.2 innings. His stats over those innings? A 2.92 ERA, 1.281 whip, and a 6 – 0 record. He’s allowing a career low 7 hits per 9 innings, and is averaging 9.5 Ks per 9. Over his 5 games started, he has allowed 3 ER twice, 0 ER twice, and 2 ER once as he has worked at least 5 innings each time. Talk about earning your pay! (more…)

Jul 4, 2012; Toronto, ON, Canada; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher

Carlos Villanueva threw a very effective game yesterday, as he changed speeds constantly on the Red Sox and only made one big mistake to Jarrod Saltalamacchia in the 2nd inning. Overall, he threw 101 pitches, 65 of them for strikes, and earned his 5th win (with no losses) of the season. To say that he, and Aaron Laffey, have stepped up in the wake of all of the injuries the Jays have faced of late is a major understatement. Both have been stellar, and deserve to be highlighted for their efforts.

Also important to note in this game was the inaugural appearances of both J.A. Happ and Brandon Lyon. I don’t know about you, but watching both of those guys help Darren Oliver shut the door on the Red Sox after Villanueva’s stellar start was, well, soothing. Neither got into trouble at all, although Happ did get one friendly call from the umpire at 1B, and neither allowed a hit or a walk. Happ needed only 6 pitches to get 2 outs in the 7th, while Lyon needed only 11 pitches to close the game out in the 9th. (more…)

You can catch the BoxScore here, but here are a few of the highlights for the Bluefield team: (more…)

Moving on…

Here is what we could call the “top 5″ at the break and their performances from the 1st half, along with some of the “Next in Line” guys who could come into play in the second half:

Ricky Romero – Unquestioned “Ace” of the Staff (more…)

The Jays rotation has been a mixed bag of tricks of late, topped off by the latest gem thrown by Brandon Morrow who has finally found his groove with another win yesterday. His velocity was great, his command was right on, and he had excellent movement when needed. He joins both Ricky Romero and Carlos Villanueva as a trio of Jays pitchers who have really become of the core of the starting group in 2011. It’s most evident when we display the results from last two times through the rotation for each starter as follows: (more…)

Mike G’s e-mail was sent as follows: (more…)

Why is it impressive and unexpected? (more…)