March 2, 2012; Dunedin, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays center fielder Anthony Gose (43) poses for a portrait during photo day at Florida Auto Exchange Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-US PRESSWIRE

Without a doubt, Anthony Gose is the most polarizing prospect in the Blue Jays’ system, as everyone has an opinion on the 6-foot-1 center fielder. The strange love affair among the fan base began after Toronto acquired Gose from Houston, via Philadelphia, at the 2010 trade deadline. The Astros acquired Gose in a package deal from the Phillies in exchange for Roy Oswalt, and then swapped him to the Blue Jays in a rare prospect-for-prospect deal, receiving first baseman Brett Wallace. However, for Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos, the hunger for Gose began long before. During the Roy Halladay trade discussions of late 2009, the ‘Silent Assassin’ made acquiring him a priority. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. refused to include the toolsy outfielder, forcing Anthopoulos to accept another outfielder, Michael Taylor, instead. But in the end, what Alex Anthopoulos wants, Alex Anthopoulos gets.

The scouting report on Gose is an interesting one, and makes the wide array of opinions understandable. One thing everyone can agree on, however, is that Gose is a special defender. In addition to roaming the outfield for his Bellflower, California high school, Gose worked off the mound, where he sat between 92 and 96 mph with his fastball. That arm has translated extremely well to professional baseball, as it serves as an 80-grade tool in center field, and he has recorded 13, 16, and 14 outfield assists in his last three seasons. Despite his muscular build, he’s an exceptional athlete, grading out with plus-plus speed and above-average baserunning ability. Those afterburners serve him well on defense, as they give him exceptional range and the ability to run down nearly any ball from gap to gap in the outfield. If he improves his reads and first step, he has the potential to be an 80-grade defender.

While the defensive aspect of his scouting report reads glowingly, the offensive side has more question marks. His power, once a below-average tool, has blossomed to solid-average, flashing the potential for 15-20 home runs — in addition to the numerous double and triples his legs will help him create.

The red flags can usually be found next to the scouting section titled “Anthony Gose hit tool”. Gose is currently a below-average hitter, which is a bit puzzling considering his lightning-fast hands, repeatable swing, and smooth weight transfer. His stance has a wide base and is quiet outside of a small bat wiggle. He even has an above-average eye at the plate, consistently working deep into counts. The problems arise when he gets to two strikes, because as Keith Law wrote in his Top 100, “his two-strike approach still needs work – because it doesn’t really exist”. So while the deep counts can lead to walks, they also lead to a plethora of strikeouts.

This is where the variations in projections come into play. Gose hit .253 with a 26.2% strikeout rate with Double-A New Hampshire in 2011, and that’s not good enough to be a big-league regular. To simply maintain a .250 average while making the transition from the minor leagues to the Majors, Gose will need to make improvements in his swing, perhaps keeping his front shoulder closed to make him less susceptible to breaking balls on the outer half. If not, smart pitching coaches will find the holes and pick his swing apart.

For argument’s sake, let’s assume he makes no such adjustments, failing to further develop his offensive approach. Assuming he receives the roughly 700 PAs that he’d need at the big-league level, how would he fare?

700 PA | 622 AB | 97 1B | 24 2B | 9 3B | 16 HR | 60 BB | 16 HBP | 2 SF | 47 SB | 15 CS

The above statistics are my best estimates given his tools and historical numbers, translating to a .694 OPS (.235/.315/.379) and .318 wOBA. From this data, we can calculate his wRAA, the offensive aspect of the WAR formula. wRAA is calculated by subtracting the league average wOBA from the players value, dividing it by a scaling factor, and multiplying everything by plate appearances. Using 2010 league data, that gives Gose a -1.12 wRAA – unsurprisingly, a below average offensive player. But offense is only one part of the equation, defense and base running ability play large factors as well. Since those numbers are difficult to predict, I used the average of the top three defensive center fielders for Gose’s fielding, and the average of the top five base stealers for Gose’s base running — fair assumptions given his tools. These numbers translate to 13.1 and 4.3 runs above average, respectively. When added to his -1.12 wRAA, we get a net total of 16.28 runs above average. WAR is calculated simply by dividing runs above average by 10, making Anthony Gose a 1.6 WAR player.

While that number isn’t particularly appealing for someone considered a top prospect, one must remember the circumstances. This is assuming that Gose has no further offensive development, and is thrown into regular duty. That 1.6 WAR would have been 19th among qualified center fielders in 2011 (see below, via FanGraphs.com), and put him on the fringe between the “role player” and “solid regular” classifications.

The other end of the spectrum has Gose spending the 2012 season in Triple-A Las Vegas, refining his offensive game with hitting coach Chad Mottola, and then following a normal development approach once he reaches the Majors. What might his ceiling be under these circumstances?

700 PA | 605 AB | 111 1B | 25 2B | 12 3B | 18 HR | 77 BB | 16 HBP | 2 SF | 55 SB | 17 CS

A significant improvement over the previous numbers, these statistics translate to an .813 OPS (.275/.368/.445) and .369 wOBA. Using the same calculation as before, Gose comes out with a 27.44 wRAA – well above average. If we then use the same averages to determine the fielding and base running aspects of the equation, we get 44.84 runs above average, or 4.5 WAR. His 4.5 WAR would have ranked 8th among qualified center fielders in 2011, and falls into the “All Star” classification, which is obviously elite territory.

This quick exercise proves that while there are numerous possible outcomes, the upside with Gose is pretty huge. Small adjustments in his offensive game transform him from a bottom of the lineup platoon outfielder into an All-Star centerfielder and dynamic leadoff hitter. It also gives insight into just how valuable his defense and athleticism make him in the sabermetrically-driven modern era of baseball, as even with zero (or negative) offensive contribution he can be a useful roster player.

Whether or not he’ll make the required adjustments to unleash his potential is the million dollar question, and is the reason why scouts and Major League executives alike will continue to give him opportunities to succeed.

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Some fans believe that Brett Wallace should have been brought in as the 1B/DH of the future for the Jays. They like his bat and can now point to what has been a fairly successful beginning to his pro career. Through 125 ABs, he has 11 doubles, 2 HRs, and a .336/.413/.472 line for his fans to use as evidence that his bat could have helped the Jays get much better overall. His defensive abilities, however, have been sub-par as he currently holds a -0.4 dWar in comparison to a 1.2 OWar for a total WAR of 0.8. (more…)

Image courtesy of tdotpsports1

If you’re anything like me, you love to examine trades. From the moment the rumour hits the net, to every at bat you see that ex-Blue Jay take, the pros and cons are weighed and debated.

Despite all of the early attention trades generate, it generally takes many months or even years to fully determine the winners and losers. Trades are made for a variety of reasons, such as shedding salary, picking up prospects for future success, or adding pieces for the present. It is therefore possible, in theory for each team involved in a trade to come out a “winner.” This is how I view the Brett Wallace for Anthony Gose trade. (more…)

#34: David Fletcher Cooper

First Baseman / 23 years old / 6′0″ 210 lbs

Born: February 12th, 1987 in Stockton, CA

Bats: Left    Throws: Left

High School Team: Tokay Tigers

College Team: University of California Golden Bears

Drafted By: The Toronto Blue Jays in the 1st round (17th overall) of the 2008 First-Year-Player Draft

Jersey Number: #9 for the New Hampshire Fisher Cats

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For those who might not recognize Jacobs’ name, he was acquired by the Blue Jays on July 30th, one day after GM Alex Anthopoulos traded first baseman Brett Wallace straight-up for highly touted outfielder Anthony Gose. (more…)

After watching all 4 games he has played thus far for the Jays, I can say one thing without a doubt – Yunel is a baseball player with a well above-average baseball IQ and and well above-average ability. Both HRs he has hit so far were crushed and showed a lot more power than the Jays were “supposed to get” in this deal.However, it’s the bunt singles and D that have me loving his upside more and more every day. As the game began last night and Fred Lewis singled on the first pitch, Yunel was able to recognize that the 2nd baseman was following Fred Lewis to 2B as he tried to steal. So, instead of trying to drive the ball or crush it, he simply bunted it to where the 2B was supposed to be playing – hard enough to get by Kyle Davis, and got on 1B as a result. That, my friends, is not something that many players would recognize or would be willing to do, especially in the AL. (more…)

• Art Charles, who was drafted in the 20th rd by the Jays as a LHP and signed July 6th, has been converted into a 1B for the GCL Blue Jays;
• Noah Syndergaard made his debut for the Jays in the GCL, throwing 2 shutout innings where he did not allow a walk or a hit. So far so good! If looking for more information about Noah, look up the interview I conducted with him after he signed with the Jays.
• J.P. Arencibia is a man on fire in AAA and may be spelling the end of John Buck in Toronto with his performance. Not only is John’s value about as high as it can be in trades right now, but JP is tearing up the ball in AAA at a pace that can’t be ignored much longer. He’s hitting .390 with 7 HRs over his last 10 games, with a .444 OPB and ridiculous 1.396 OPS. He should be in Toronto by the end of July, once Alex starts dealing.
• Zach Stewart is beginning to heat up in AA, holding a 5-1 record and 3.19 ERA over his last 10 games. He still doesn’t have stellar numbers, 59 hits and 26 walks to 49 Ks in those 62 IP, but he is learning to come through when needed and get the job done with guys on base. A promotion to AAA may be in order by August.
• Adeiny Hechavarria is beginning to warm up in AA, but is still showing cracks to his offensive skills. While his average is much better at .279 over his last 10 games (43 ABs), he still only had 4 extra base hits in that span and was caught stealing twice (no stolen bases). That amounts to few big knocks and no speed….not exactly stellar for a SS. He can still break out soon, but hasn’t wowed anyone yet. (more…)

Things will get better in 2011, but I’m not so sure they’re going to get much better in 2010 until they decide to bring up more AAA talent. Trading will pick up and the lineup and bullpen should both get a much needed makeover as a result. Here are my predictions of moves to be made by the Jays before September 1st comes around: (more…)

• Adeiny Hechavaria, despite struggling to a .193 average, .217 OBP, and only 11 extra base hits in 161 ABs in HiA Dunedin, was promoted by the Jays to AA New Hampshire. I have no idea how management justified this move, other than to guess that moving him up may change the scenery for him and get him to make the required adjustments. In his first game in AA, Adeiny hit a triple and went 1 for 2 with 2 walks. Not a bad start, let’s hope it’s a sign of things to come.
• The Jays are having problems scoring runs and have JP Arencibia (18 HRs, .308 avg) who is hitting .422 with 4 HRs over his last 10 games sitting in AAA. There is no reason for the Jays to delay his arrival and Lyle Overbay should be the victim in the lineup as he should be brought up along with Brett Wallace (14 HRs, .301 avg) who is hitting .450 with 3 HRs over his last 10 games. Both of these players would provide a serious boost to a lame lineup that has lost all signs of life over the last week. When a team flatlines as the Jays have, it’s time to insert some motivation – both JP and Brett would do just that. Lyle should be sent to the first team that will either cover some salary or provide the Jays with a mid-to-low level prospect. (more…)