Much like in this picture, the Toronto Blue Jays are chasing the Boston Red Sox for the AL East Championship and a spot in the playoffs. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

With the Toronto Blue Jays in the midst of a season long four game winning streak, it sounds negative to talk about a topic like this.  You can thank Jon Heyman for drawing my ire.

What should Alex Anthopoulos do if the season plays out the way it has been playing out and the Blue Jays play cellar dwellers?

The way I see it, if this Jays team isn’t going to do win this season, then they’re not going to do it.  Factors such as the AL East crown is more winnable now this season than it has been in the last 18 years led to a big bump in payroll for the Jays, as they took on the “win now” persona.  They bet the farm to acquire players that look fantastic or “sexy on paper.”  If “win now” is not going to happen, I believe the Jays would have to (dare I say it) rebuild the farm.

Heyman had his own ideas the other day.  He believes that the Baltimore Orioles should go after R.A. Dickey.  He then followed it up with Dickey more-than-likely not being available due to a relatively team friendly contract for a reigning Cy Young winner.  So basically, it was a waste of an article by Heyman.  I wasn’t the only one that felt this way.  Travis Bateman’s article takes it into further detail discussing some nationally syndicated writers you may want to avoid when it comes to following the Toronto Blue Jays.  It’s an excellent read.

Bateman, Heyman, and another fellow writer, Kyle Franzoni however, all got me thinking:  ”if it’s over before the trade deadline, who are the Blue Jays most trade-able chips?”

I’m not in the head of AA.  If I was, I would ABSOLUTELY NOT make a trade to improve an AL East rival unless I knew for sure the Blue Jays were absolutely out of it.  So Dickey to the Orioles just isn’t happening.  Guys that could be on their way out however:

Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Edwin Encarnacion (10).  Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Edwin Encarnacion: There are several playoff contending teams that are having issues at 1B, 3B, and OF.  Encarnacion can play all of those positions.  While his versatility makes him intriguing, it’s his power and contract that make him a great trade chip.  The power slugger is only one year removed from hitting .280 with 42 HR 110 RBI and an .941 OPS.  The 2012 season was by far EE’s best season of his career.  If the Blue Jays were better in 2012, Encarnacion would have been an MVP candidate.  The amount of money he’s earning this season?  A mere $8 million dollars.  That’s nothing for MVP type numbers.  Did I mention that Easy E is also only 30 years old?

Teams Interested:  Most of this is my own speculation of course, but contending teams outside the AL East that could use an upgrade at 1B, 3B, or OF are the St.Louis Cardinals, Texas Rangers, and MAYBE Oakland Athletics or Kansas City Royals.

All four teams mentioned have great talent at their minor league levels.  St.Louis and Texas are probably the best suitors since both teams are willing to take on money and have young, talented players they’re looking to move.  The Rangers may be the most ideal. The Rangers are looking to upgrade at 1B (the Rangers aren’t sold on Mitch Moreland) and possibly move #1 prospect SS/2B Jurickson Profar as well as #2 prospect 3B Mike Olt since both youngsters are roadblocked by better players.  With the possible resurgence of the Jays 1B/OF/DH Adam Lind, plus the Blue Jays need for a legitimate second baseman, this trade would benefit both teams greatly.  It would also give Toronto some payroll relief for when SS Jose Reyes‘ contract starts to reach into the stratosphere of ballplayers like Albert Pujols ($23 million) and Alex Rodriguez ($28 million.)

Brandon Morrow (23) Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Brandon Morrow:  It’s difficult to imagine Morrow being the Jays most trade-able pitcher given his inconsistency.  Many GMs, however, love Morrow’s stuff and feel he can be a bonafide top of the rotation pitcher of almost any team.  Though he was more affordable last season, $8 million for a 28 year old hard throwing righty is still relative bargain for aspiring playoff teams.  2012 showed glimpses of just how good he can be, with a 10-7 record, 2.96 ERA, and 3.0 BB/9, all career bests.

Teams Interested: The Kansas City Royals and Atlanta Braves have to be interested if Morrow is available.  Both teams would be willing to increase their payroll to acquire an arm like Morrow’s.  It’s tough to say who the ideal partner is here, but the Braves have the more talented farm system at this point.  If the Jays are looking to add some young talented arms, you don’t have to look hard with the Braves.  Julio Teheran or Mike Minor do not have Morrow’s stuff, but can be front line starters, are younger, and would be under team control wherever they end up.  Landing one of them as well as a couple of decent-to-low end prospects could make a trade like this very realistic.

Casey Janssen (44) Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Casey Janssen: It pains me to say Janssen’s name in trade talks.  What pains me even more is Toronto doesn’t see him to be the ideal closer for this team.  Last season’s trade for Sergio Santos showed you Toronto felt it needed improvement at the back end of the pen.  This despite Janssen being the most reliable relief pitcher the Jays have had over the last three seasons (yes, even more so than Jason Frasor.)  Since Janssen is an UFA after 2014 and costs around $4 million for his talents, he’s affordable by most playoff contending teams and would be a great trade asset for the Jays.

Teams Interested: Two teams that immediately come to mind are both from the NL West.  The Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks both need closers.  Brandon League and J.J. Putz, for their respective teams, have not been good.

Here’s where this gets tricky though.  Both teams have closers waiting in the wings.  The Dodgers have Kenley Jansen.  Arizona has David Hernandez.  In fact, most sports analysts have wondered why Jansen has yet to be given the closer’s role with all of League’s struggles.  In Arizona, I don’t feel the D-Backs trust Hernandez in that role just yet.  When Putz went down to injury, instead of going to Hernandez, Diamondbacks coach Kirk Gibson gave the closing duties to failed Miami Marlins closer Heath Bell.

Janssen would be a perfect fit for either team though.  The Jays would ideally like to deal with Diamondbacks because of their farm system talent.  A player like Janssen could possibly get the Jays LHP prospect Tyler Skaggs straight up due to the pitching depth Arizona has.  Even though Skaggs is the Diamondbacks top organizational prospect, based off of what I read, my perception is the club may value #2 prospect, RHP Archie Bradley, more.  It’s not out of the realm of getting players like Matt Davidson, Adam Eaton, and Skaggs or Bradley if Toronto ships Encarnacion and Janssen to Arizona.  That does go against Arizona’s youth movement philosophy however.

Janssen, being from California, may prefer to go to the Dodgers.  The Dodgers sorely need a reliable late inning arm, almost as much as the Jays do.  Two problems with the Dodgers.  1.) They are struggling as badly now as the Jays were in April.  2.) Much like the Jays, they too bet their farm system on big name, talented veterans.  So the Dodgers farm system is pretty dry.  If, however, LA puts together a solid playoff run in the coming months, or at least believes it can, they may be willing to make a move where it could net the Jays stud prospect OF Yasiel Puig in exchange for Janssen.

There are plenty of the minor moves to be made.  Playoff teams are always looking to make their team faster on the basepaths.  Rajai Davis and Emilio Bonifacio have great speed and could be sent out, but it probably wouldn’t give the Jays back anybody of major relevance.  Melky Cabrera, if he continues to hit the ball well, could maybe net a decent set of prospects, but I feel teams are still a bit hesitant to trade for him after his suspension and cover-up last season for PEDs.  Darren Oliver or Aaron Loup are two more players that could be dealt seeing as though most teams like to carry a “lefty specialist.”  Don’t expect both guys to get the Jays much in return either.

Ultimately, if the Jays are done, then Encarnacion, Morrow, and Janssen are the best bet to help rebuild this franchise.  While the trades made this offseason to acquire Dickey and other good players like Josh Johnson and Reyes weren’t entirely bad, if this team doesn’t at least get into the playoffs, it’s going to cost AA his job.  The flip flopping of team strategy to go from building within, to betting the farm, back to building within is generally frowned upon in any major sports management community.  It portrays the image that the guy running the franchise doesn’t know what he’s doing.  If the Jays go back to rebuilding, they truly will be the “Marlins of the North” and will absolutely portray that clueless image.

Apr 11, 2012; Toronto, ON, Canada; Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Sergio Santos  (21) celebrates after defeating the Boston Red Sox at the Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays beat the Red Sox 3-1. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

In the latest injury/re-injury/misdiagnosis on the Jays front power armed reliever Sergio Santos will be undergoing elbow surgery to clean up some bone spurs. The recovery time is expected to be around six weeks according to a Tweet from Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi.

Surgery on Sergio Santos likely this week. Recovery expected to be six weeks, possibly less. #BlueJays won’t know until after surgery

— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) May 14, 2013

And in other awesome pitching staff news, Brandon Morrow who was scratched from his start on Saturday and was expected to pitch tomorrow will be scratched again and not start until the weekend against the Yankees.

John Lott had more info about Morrow missing the start tomorrow on Twitter:

Morrow says tightness is gone, was set to pitch tomorrow, told today he was being held back until Saturday.

— John Lott (@LottOnBaseball) May 14, 2013

Morrow says move was precautionary, also gives him chance to throw normal-intensity bullpen tomorrow.

— John Lott (@LottOnBaseball) May 14, 2013

While I hate to be crying conspiracy at the latest injury woes out of Blue Jays land it certainly is beginning to get frustrating. bviously as a Jay’s fans we view this situation through a lense that is intensely focused on the Jays. And even though Andrew Stoeten debunked the whole “lying about injuries” theory, with a look at our pin striped rivals injury history over at DJF, there are still times when I feel like Conrad Murray could do a better job as a team doctor than the people who are currently employed.

Hopefully these injuries aren’t significant enough to derail the Blue Jays valiant charge towards fourth place, but in reality there poor performance in April will be more to blame than any injuries if they fall out of contention prematurely.

September 21, 2011; Cleveland, OH , USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Mark Buehrle (56) during the first inning in the game against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric P. Mull-USA TODAY Sports

For Mark Buehrle, Brandon Morrow and R.A. Dickey their best career starts were all against the Blue Jays division rival Tampa Bay Rays.

On July 23, 2009 Mark Buehrle threw a perfect game against the Rays in his home ball park US Cellular Field. Buehrle cruised through the Rays lineup as you can tell from the game lasting 2 hours and 3 minutes. At the time, the Rays had a 343 on base percentage. Two of the Rays batters hit a foul ball very close to the fair territory down the left field line. Five of the Rays hitters had a full count. DeWayne Wise made a homerun stealing catch in the 9th. Without that catch it would have been a 1 hitter which isn’t bad either.

On August 8, 2010 Brandon Morrow threw a complete game 17 strikeout 1 hitter against the Rays in his home ball park Rogers Centre. Morrow had a no-hitter going through 8 2/3 innings until Evan Longoria broke it up with an infield single! Morrow would have been the first Blue Jay since Dave Stieb in 1992 to throw a no hitter. It was also Morrow’s FIRST career complete game, that’s getting your first career complete game in style! Morrow’s 17 strikeouts in a game was just one less than the Blue Jays record of 18 strikeouts by Roger Clemens in 1998.

On June 13, 2012 R.A. Dickey threw a 1 hitter against the Rays at Tropicana field. He struck out 12 hitters which was a career high at the time. He didn’t walk a single hitter and only faced 29 hitters in total because of an error which is just 2 over the minimum if you didn’t know. The only hit Dickey gave up was an infield single that Mets third baseman David Wright didn’t field cleanly. The New York Mets formally appealed the official scorekeeping of the only hit allowed to be changed to an error on Wright in an attempt to make it a no hitter but MLB denied the appeal.

Now obviously the Rays have different players now than they did when 3/5 of the Blue Jays rotation had their best career starts against them. But for 3/5 of the Blue Jays rotation playing the Rays should always give them some good memories.

May 1, 2013; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista (19) discusses a call at the plate with home plate umpire Bruce Dreckman at the Rogers Centre against the Boston Red Sox. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

The rest of the rotation and an average hitting team are what keeps the Mariners from moving up and challenging the A’s and potentially the Angels. When top prospects James Paxton (Canadian boy), Dannny Hultzen and Taijuan Walker rise up to replace Joe Saunders, Aaron Harang et al., this could be a team that could seriously contend for a division championship.

I figured I might as well lead with the Mariners since there is nothing new to be said about the Blue Jays. Pitching is mediocre in the rotation (7 walks by J.A. Happ last night was putrid), the old adage that hitting is contagious must also apply to NOT hitting because we don’t have one regular hitting above .255. That, my friends, is vile. Other than the bullpen, led by the perfect Casey Janssen, I am thoroughly disappointed. At least our defence seems to have settled down…there’s that…and ummm…hey Colby is up to .253. Yup…

Probable Starters:

Game 1: Felix Hernandez (3-2 .214 opp BAA) vs Ricky Romero (1st start)
Game 2: Hisashi Iwakuma (2-1, .160 opp BAA) vs R.A. Dickey (2-4, 4.50 ERA)
Game 3: Joe Saunders (2-3, 5.25 ERA) vs Brandon Morrow (0-2, 5.29 ERA)

If there is to be a saving grace for Game 1, it’s that Hernandez is 3-3 and has a 3.75 ERA against the Blue Jays lifetime. Mind you that stat is always bogus considering the players change so much from one year to the next but it’s something. If Romero can go 5 and the hitters can scrape together a few runs we may have a chance. Seattle hitters have provided their ace with 3.17 runs per game so far this year, hence the mediocre W-L record…which we mention every year it seems in regards to Hernandez.

Game 2 should be an interesting match-up. R.A. Dickey goes in with a slightly bum neck but is still cleared to play. I wish the blisters that have been bugging Iwakuma come back hardcore. Dickey should have a great shot at holding down the Mariners offence but Iwakuma has some stingy numbers folks. I mean SICK numbers. I see a pitchers duel in this one and a definite low scoring affair overall.

Game 3 should be the one truly no problem game of the lot. Joe Saunders is no longer a Diamondback, when he was at his best. He is now a Mariner who is 0-3 on the road with a bloated ERA of 12.51. Playing against your former team always seems to get players up and Brandon Morrow is no different. In 23.2 inning pitched against Seattle, Morrow has 32 Ks and a tidy 3.04 ERA. He is due for a brilliant start and this would appear to be the game to do it.

Line-Ups:

The following are the probable line-ups for both squads.

Seattle Mariners:

1. CF: Michael Saunders
2. 3B: Kyle Seager
3. DH: Kendry Morales
4. RF: Michael Morse
5. LF: Jason Bay
6. 1B: Justin Smoak
7. 2B: Dustin Ackley
8. C: Jesus Montero
9. SS: Robert Andino

Toronto Blue Jays:

1. 3B: Brett Lawrie
2. DH: Adam Lind
3. RF: Jose Bautista
4. 1B: Edwin Encarnacion
6. LF: Melky Cabrera
7. CF: Colby Rasmus
8. 2B: Maicer Izturis
9. SS: Munenori Kawasaki

I could decimate you with stats. Ok I WILL decimate you with stats: LAST in MLB in average (.228). 22nd in MLB in OPS (.690). 28th in MLB in Team ERA (4.72). 26th in MLB in BAA against (.268). Are we getting the picture? Hack the numbers to bits. The team is a mess. We needed that Boston series. Now we need this Seattle series. 2 out of 3 would be a great start since we have won only one series all season…cross your fingers. The time to worry is growing near.

The Final Word:

The all or nothing approach is failing fast. It may have worked for Chad Mottola in the minors where the pitching is more suspect but in the big leagues the pitching can leave us flailing or being too aggressive. There has been a bit more attention to longer at bats but then there are also a lot of called third strikes happening as well. I wonder if Mottola and Dwayne Murphy have the hitters confused as to what to do. Is it a room divided between both men? It is a thought. Perhaps a little shift in accountability between them may lead to results on the field. If not, I don’t see anything remotely resembling the team this group should be.

Apr 5, 2013; Toronto, ON, Canada; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Josh Johnson (55) during their game against the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

If you remember Happ’s spot was the 5th spot in the rotation.

With Johnson taking Happ’s spot you could argue the 5th spot is now the 1st spot because starting Friday the Toronto Blue Jays rotation will have Josh Johnson, R.A. Dickey and Brandon Morrow pitching back to back to back.

That’s more like it.

The new rotation order helps the Blue Jays immediately because the one and only King Felix will be pitching for the Seattle Mariners on Friday. So the Blue Jays will have Josh Johnson pitching against him instead of Happ. Ace against ace is always better than ace against 5th starter.

The Mariners are also going to be the first victims of the Jays having their 3 best starters pitch 3 days in a row.

And don’t overlook the value of having R.A. Dickey pitching after Johnson. It’ll be hard for teams to make the adjustment from facing the power arm of Josh Johnson to facing Dickey’s knuckleball the next day.

The Blue Jays having nothing but aces on the mound for consecutive games can also help start win streaks or stop losing streaks a lot quicker.

The Jays big 3 in the rotation haven’t been at their best yet. That’s one of the reasons the Jays are 10-18. If they all start pitching like they’re capable of they should all pitch deep into games every night so the Blue Jays will be able to give the bullpen a lot of rest.

The rotation switch means Happ will pitch after Buehrle. In a perfect world you’d like to be able to split up the lefties but they’re both very different pitchers so it’s not like the Jays would be giving teams the same look back to back days. Buehrle and Happ can also keep games competitive and are capable of pitching deep into games which is all you can ask from your 4th and 5th starter.

Johnson will have to pitch after Happ now which doesn’t really give him any extra advantage the way Dickey and Morrow have an advantage because of the pitcher that starts the day before them. But whatever, Johnson can take advantage of the fact that he’s Josh Johnson.

Unfortunately the Blue Jays have 2 off days in the same week in the middle of the May so the rotation order is bound to have to be changed again soon. Hopefully the Jays can find a way to keep their 3 aces pitching back to back even with the off days. For however long it lasts it’s going to be fun seeing the Jays have Johnson, Dickey and Morrow pitching back to back to back.

It’s not going to be fun for the teams that have to face all the Jays aces on consecutive days.

Good luck to the rest of the Major League Baseball! You’re going to need it.

Apr 21, 2013; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Munenori Kawasaki (66) celebrates with a fan after scoring in the first inning against the New York Yankees at the Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the final game thread of April 2013! The Toronto Blue Jays open up a 3 game set with  the Boston Red Sox this evening at the Rogers Centre. Our very own Jeff Morten previewed the series for Jays Journal, so I won’t go too much into the match up at hand.I’m also not going to focus on the Blue Jays struggles so far in April.

There have been countless words written about what is wrong with the team, and what they need to do to fix it not only here on Jays Journal, but on seemingly every other sports site in existence.

Instead I want to focus on something Blue Jays fans have been forgetting about an awful lot lately. Baseball is fun. We watch this game because it’s fun, your day shouldn’t be ruined because the Blue Jays may lose again. Did April suck because the Blue Jays have gone 9-17 so far? No! (It sucked because the weather has been awful in Toronto so far, now there’s something to be sad about). When you’re watching along with tonight’s game, try to ignore the fact that the Jays are 9-17, ignore the fact that their odds at making the playoffs get longer every day, and just enjoy the fact that you’re getting to watch two teams that are exceptional at what they do, play a game against each other that is exceptionally fun to watch (plus Brandon Morrow and John Lester are pitching tonight and that’s awesome).

Line Ups

.@bluejays lineup:Lawrie-3bDavis-DH Bautista-RF Encarnacion-1bCabrera-LFArencibia-CIzturis-SSRasmus-CFBonifacio-2bMorrow-P #Whiff

— Blue Jays-Official(@BlueJays) April 30, 2013

4/30 at TOR: Ellsbury CF, Nava RF, Pedroia 2B, Ortiz DH, Napoli 1B, Carp LF, Saltalamacchia C, Middlebrooks 3B, Drew SS, Lester SP.

— Boston Red Sox (@RedSox) April 30, 2013

News & Notes

Took a big step toward getting back on the field today! Cast is OFF!!! #roadtorecovery #gojays #lovethisteam — Jose Reyes (@lamelaza_7) April 29, 2013

I think the apt way to describe this is NAILS.

@crtc approves Rogers’ acquisition of @thescore but says no to using tangible benfts to fund Sportsnet Winter Games crtc.gc.ca/eng/archive/20…

— Nicholas Kyonka (@Nkyonka) April 30, 2013

Just to clear up any confusion, Rogers had purchased the TV properties of TheScore a few months ago, it finally gained control of those properties today after CRTC approval. The digital properties of TheScore (i.e. the website with all of the awesome blogs like Getting Blanked & DJF, and the killer phone app, and the Twitter handle @thescore) remain a seperate entity.

Look for TheScore TV channel to be rebranded as some sort of “Sportsnet” in the coming months, and presumably look for some Jays related content to show up on the network. There have been rumours of a live pre/post game show from TheScore’s studios just down from the Rogers Centre at 370 King Street.

Question Of The Day

After yours truly and the one and only Michael M. Beraskow (find him on Twitter at @donnieberaskow) gave varying opinions (but not really) on what the Blue Jays should do with John Gibbons, what do you guys think?

Game Updates

This is no ordinary Game Thread, I’ll be doing the Game Updates a little differently! Why you ask? Because it’s my birthday and I’m heading on over to the Dome to take in a little baseball to celebrate, but being the dedicated blogger that I am, I’ve decided to update LIVE from the Dome…cause I’m cool like that. I don’t know how I’m going to update yet, we’ll see how it goes along, I’ll also be over on the Twitter Machine tweeting my more inane observations that I don’t think are worthy of this fine post.

Almost game time!

Top of 1
The Dome is creepily quiet thus far.
Morrow strands two after a walk and infield single

Bottom 1
Blue Jays score 1 after a Davis single and steal and a Bautista double

Top 2
Morrow is dealing! A clean inning with a few Ks for good measure.

Bottom 2
Cletus gets stranded after his fellow bottom of the lineupers fail to get anything going

ALL-STAR BALLOTS

Top 3
Morrow strands 1, looking very comfortable on the mound. Pitching the way we all hoped at the start of the season

Bottom 3
A break goes the Jays way!

Top 4
A couple of solo shots put the BoSox on the board.

Bottom 4
I was getting/eating food…not really sure what happened, my bad!

Top 5
Morrow gives up another but is up to 7 Ks on the day.

Bottom 5
EDWIN

Top 6
Aaron Loup gives up his first career HR, the third solo shot of the night for Boston to make it 6-4 Blue Jays

Bottom 6
The Blue Jays go down quietly and Jacoby Elsbury remains unfazed by my heckling.

Top 7
Kawasaki gets a big ovation coming into the game at SS

#blamekawasaki

Ugh.

Bottom 7
EDWIN IS A GOD.

Top 8
Black Magic keeps the bad guys off the board. Guy is ageless.

Bottom 8
Blue Jays add an insurance run compliments of a Colby Rasmus RBI single. Janssen in to close.

Top 9
Good guys win!

Apr 25, 2013; Bronx, NY, USA; Toronto Blue Jays manager John Gibbons (5) argues a call with umpire Jeff Kellogg (8) against the New York Yankees during the seventh inning at Yankee Stadium. Yankees won 5-3. Mandatory Credit: Debby Wong-USA TODAY Sports

Probable Starters:

Game 1: Jon Lester (4-0, 2.27 ERA) v/s Brandon Morrow (0-2, 5.27)
Game 2: Clay Buchholz (5-0, 1.19 ERA) v/s Mark Buehrle (1-1, 6.35)
Game 3: Ryan Dempster (1-2, 3.30 ERA) v/s TBA

Game 1 sees a resurgent and healthy Lester taking on forever-waiting-on-potential Morrow. I like the guy, I think he works hard and is a true team player but we are now into our fourth year of muddling and befuddling Morrow. His stuff is filthy but so is his pitch count. If he can bring himself down in pitch count and ease off on the walks (19:9 K/BB ratio), the potential for Cy Young stuff is there. But the bright side is John Lester, with the sparkling ERA and record seems to hit a bump in his last start, issuing 6 walks and 3 earned in just over 6 innings. If he is falling into the same Lester as last year then perhaps the Blue Jays could take this one.

Game 2 is a match up of perhaps the biggest surprise so far in Buchholz and perhaps the biggest pitching disappointment in Buehrle. Buchholz has not gone less than 7 innings all season. A 3:1 K/BB and a WHIP of 1.01 are the makings of an early Cy Young candidate. Buchholz has always had the potential. Is this the year he finally puts it all together? On the other end, is this the beginning of a sharp decline for Buehrle. A WHIP of 1.52 and a collective BAA of .306 is high, even for a guy who is prone to giving up lots of hits. He can’t seem to bear down and is prone to the big inning so far. Is this just a fluke? This would be a great way of proving the value of his contract. Beat their best when you are not performing at your best.

For Game 3, Ryan Dempster has done fairly well so far. Many thought he would have a sharp spike in ERA coming over to the AL from the NL but his .187 BAA has been amazing and he has struck out between 7 and 10 batters in every start so far. Strikeouts carry a lot of weight in this division and unless we curb our free swinging ways this could be a feast for Dempster. There is no starter listed as of yet for the good guys. Johnson is scheduled but they are still monitoring his progress from tricep tightness. With an off day yesterday it may mean bumping J.A. Happ up a notch to fill the spot. I have no problem with this as he has been the steadiest contributor in the rotation.

Line-Ups:

The following are the probable line-ups for both squads.

Toronto Blue Jays:

1. DH: Rajai Davis
2. SS: Munenori Kawasaki
3. RF: Jose Bautista
4. 1B: Edwin Encarnacion
5. LF: Melky Cabrera
6. C: J.P. Arencibia
7. CF: Colby Rasmus
8. 3B: Brett Lawrie
9. 2B: Maicer Izturis

Boston Red Sox:

1. CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
2. RF: Daniel Nava
3. 2B: Dustin Pedroia
4. DH: David Ortiz
5. 1B: Mike Napoli
6. LF: Mike Carp
7. C: Jarrod Saltalamacchia
8. 3B: Will Middlebrooks
9. SS: Stephen Drew

The lineup needs some semblance of stability. With Brett Lawrie working his way back in the majors and Jose Bautista seemingly over his back issues, this would be the perfect time to pull a Cito and set the lineup for a few weeks and let the players sink or swim. Fiddling with the roster has done nothing so try the other approach. With the MLB ranking of 27th in both pitching and fielding perhaps a different methodology would work…that and perhaps working the count (see Rasmus, Colby and Arencibia, J.P.).

Boston has been nothing short of amazing so far but this crew is a starter injury or Pedroia injurya away from a free fall. Can John Farrell do what Bobby Valentine couldn’t? So far the numbers speak for themselves (all numbers are MLB ranking): 3rd in Team BA, 2nd in slugging, 2nd in OPS, 6th in ERA and 1st in BAA. Them some fine numbers them is.

The Final Word:

It is great to see EE performing better as of late and thank goodness for Lawrie at third. I almost forgot how slick he was around the bag and his throwing arm is mint. Reyes and Lawrie will be a dynamite left side for the nest few years. We are getting hits here and there, home runs here and there but ultimately it is both the offence and the starting pitching that is performing below par. The starters seem to be straightening out a bit so there is hope there. Where is the hope for a team that ranks 27th in OBP, 28th in BA, 28th in WHIP, 3rd in hits allowed and 6th in walk allowed. At this pace we could challenge for worst statistical team in franchise history…but we all know there is nowhere to go but up right?

April 9, 2013; Detroit, MI, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Brandon Morrow (23) pitches in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

One of the more frustrating things about being a rational fan of baseball early in the season is the panic that seems to grip the less statistically inclined portion of the fan base at any hint of struggle by their favourite team or player. Without a couple of months of data to hide the struggles of a rough couple of weeks, stat lines and win/loss records can look ugly. Now that R.A. Dickey has seemingly righted his ship, the vocal minority has taken to wringing their hands over the early woes of everyone’s favourite Type 1 Diabetic Brandon Morrow.

Through  his first 4 starts he has posted an ugly 5.57 ERA and a 1.714 WHIP through the painfully small sample size of 21 pitched. With such a small sample size, it is pure folly to attempt to draw any ‘real’ conclusions, but if the masses insist on fretting over these troubles I insist that I get the opportunity to explain why there is no need to worry.

Velocity:

When a pitcher is struggling early in the season, many look towards a decrease in velocity as a way to explain the ineffectiveness. Looking at the below table compliments of FanGraphs, we can see that Brandon Morrow’s velocity is doing just fine thank you.

 Table provided courtesy of FanGraphs

If it isn’t velocity, could control be Brandon Morrow’s issue thus far in the early season? Well no, Morrow is actually walking batters at a career low rate of 6.1% (as opposed to 8.1% last season). If Morrow is indeed walking batters less, yet still has a WHIP in excess of 1.71, we can conclude that he is giving up hits at an increased rate. We then have to look at what could be causing the spike in hits against the Jays formidable #2 starter.

Pitch Selection

Is Morrow getting away from what made him so effective this year? Looking into the Pitch f/x data over at FanGraphs and tabled below, we can see that Morrow is using his Slider  almost 33% more often.

 Table provided courtesy of FanGraphs

While it’s quite possible that this change in approach is one of the causes for his struggles, I don’t think so. The slider is Morrow’s “out” pitch, and when he’s gotten into jams early in this season he’s been forced to try to strike out everyone and their brother to get out of them unscathed (sometimes successfully as on April 3 against the Indians when he struck out 8, sometimes unsuccessfully as in every other start).

So if Morrow is still bringing the heat, and using his pitches as we would expect, what is causing his early season woes? Luck. Morrow has been unlucky. This isn’t an answer that most fans want to hear, but it’s true. Baseball is a game of inches, and those inches are not helping Brandon Morrow (or the Blue Jays in general so far).

The BABIP Beast

Looking deeper into his 4 starts it becomes clear that Morrow has been foiled by the beast known as BABIP. After posting a by a rather low .260 BABIP in the 2012 season, there was some expectation for regression towards the mean in 2013 (According to FanGraphs the Major League average BABIP for pitchers is around .290 to .300, and pitchers tend to have less control over their BABIP than batters.) In his first 4 starts Morrow’s BABIP hasn’t only regressed to the mean, it’s blown right by it and currently sits at an inflated .361. If the BABIP dragon allows Morrow to trend more towards the mean, his other stats should follow.

That being said Morrow’s swinging strike percentage is at a career low, leading to a career low in K/9. If this was happening in some alternate universe where 21 innings was a large enough sample for stats like these to normalize I might be worried, but it’s Brandon Morrow, the guy with the nastiest stuff this side of a Dickey knuckleball. It’s going to be fine, you’ll see. (Please note if Morrow struggles again this afternoon I might just burn this post, run away, and live in the woods)

When will the Brandon Morrow we know and love be found?

The normally hard-throwing Morrow simply is not missing enough bats.

After fours starts for the 2013 Blue Jays, Toronto’s number two starter has posted a 5.57 ERA and a 1.714 WHIP through 21 innings pitched. His 6.9 K/9 ratio would represent a career low and his 4 home runs allowed would put him on pace for a career-high in that category as well. But where Morrow is really being killed is the 12.9 hits per nine that he is surrendering.

However, upon further investigation, the cause for concern diminishes a bit.

Morrow looked good in his first start in 2013, just as he did in 2012. However, in both cases, it was a downhill slope from there.

In 2012, Morrow started the season off with 7 strong innings against the Cleveland Indians, surrendering two unearned runs, but only striking out 3 in the process. However, his first four starts lacked quite a bit, as you can see below:

Now, let’s compare that to this season’s first four starts:

As I said, his first start in both 2012 and 2013 were solid, but both resulted in no-decisions. His 2013 debut saw Morrow strike-out more batters and he added more to the team’s win probablility, but registered a lower game score.

From there, Morrow’s starts dipped in both seasons. Morrow’s second and third starts of 2012 came against the Orioles and Rays respectively, with the righty getting knocked around a bit in each start. However, Morrow saw a nice climb in his swinging strikes in game two of 2012, but was ultimately victimized by the long-ball in each contest.

Conversely in 2013, Morrow’s second and third starts of this season yielded slightly different results. Like the rest of Toronto’s rotation, he was crushed by a tough Detroit line-up, in a game where he failed to record a single strike-out and no swinging strikes. Morrow would rebound nicely against Kansas City a few days later, going six strong, but still only getting a pair of swinging strikes.

The fourth starts in 2012 and 2013 were quite different for Morrow. 2012 saw him hold that same Royals line-up to just a single run over six strong innings, but still miss out on the strike-out factor, but ultimately keeping KC off balance. In 2013, that fourth start came against a Yankee line-up that was not so kind, knocking Morrow around for five earned and a pair of home runs.

That all said, Morrow seems to show a knack in the early starts of not missing bats. I can’t tell if it is because his velocity is down, as it was last night, or if he is simply still working his way through his motions, and trying to get through the kinks.

The end results have not been pretty thus far in 2013. However, we can continue to hold out hope that Brandon Morrow, like the rest of the vaunted Blue Jays roster, gets things straightened out sooner rather than later.

Sep 6, 2011; Toronto, ON, Canada; Toronto Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos talks to media before the game against the Boston Red Sox at the Rogers Centre. The Red Sox beat the Blue Jays 14-0. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

In season, we saw the arrival of Colby Rasmus and the first number retired in team history: Roberto Alomar‘s number 12. We may not have been too competitive on the field but the fans bought into AA’s plan to build for 2013 and beyond. To be sustainable. He brought the minor league system from 25th best to 3rd best according to Baseball America. He drafted well and the prospect pool started to deepen. We, as fans, were hoping for the best but realistic that to fix what J.P. Ricciardi had left would take some time. A new philosophy always needs to bleed into the fabric of a team over time. So the 2011 Home Opener was a celebration of not only a new season but a new feel to our beloved Blue Jays.

Date: April 1, 2011
Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada
Game: Minnesota Twins vs. YOUR Toronto Blue Jays
Weather:…there is no weather inside a dome…ain’t figured that out yet? Hehe

We would see the maturing process of Ricky Romero reach it’s pinnacle in 2011 as he is named the number 1 starter for this team. With Romero and Brandon Morrow we saw two fixtures in the rotation. The next three were a mish mash of Brett Cecil, Kyle Drabek, Henderson Alvarez, Jesse Litch et al. The offence seemed primed for a great season with Jose Bautista blowing the cover off the ball, Adam Lind showing early promise and Brett Lawrie looking to impress. The pieces were falling into place at certain positions.

The game was a laugher from the start. We tallied fours runs in the first off a resurgent Carl Pavano and added six more before the start of the sixth. Romero was tossing donuts and looking every bit the number 1 he was designated to be. He would go 6.1 innings, 3 runs given up but only 1 earned and 7 strikeouts. Add to that the killer night of J.P. Arencibia (3-4, 2 runs, 5 RBIs, including 2 home runs). The game was well in hand as we trounced the Twins 13-3.

Coming off the type of surprise season the team had in 2010 this looked to be a great omen…an omen that went in the crapper as we finished 81-81…a mediocre line but underneath that failure to win were the seeds being planted of a winning team. We just needed to be patient. With a few more moves over the off-season this looked like a team being built properly, with no excuses. All we needed was to wait…