image courtesy of cardboardconnection.com

I’ve considered a few pre-season Jays targets that may make more sense than others based on current circumstances. The current circumstances include the Jays reportedly looking to deal Juan Rivera if possible, some players being out of options and new players possibly taking their spots on the roster (Scott Podsednik), the returning health of others (Dustin McGowan), and the depth of the pen and starting pitching overall.

With these things in mind, I have decided to run a short series of articles that will be “Assessing Potential Jays Trade Targets”. These are not probable deals, simply options that I thought should be examined because they have some legitimacy and sense to them. The first player I see as a potential target and the reasoning is as follows:

Yonder Alonso - 1B CIN (more…)

• Vernon Wells continued his strong start with his first HR of the spring, and is now hitting .600 after 5 games;
• Jose Bautista has done better, hitting .636 from his new home at the top of the lineup, and went 1 for 3 with his 2nd HR of the spring coming off Jeremy Bonderman to lead off the game;
• Randy Ruiz created some seperation between him and Brian Dopirak by crushing a grand slam off of Bonderman and is now hitting .615 on the spring;
• Reserve OF candidates Chris Lubanski and Jeremy Reed doubled and Mike McCoy went 1 for 1 but was caught stealing by Rabelo;
• The Jays managed 13 hits on the day, which gives them a total of 45 hits over the last 3 games. Talk about starting out with the hot bats!
• Brian Tallet, who could be the leading candidate for the 5th spot in the rotation according to this Jordan Bastien piece, struggled during his 2 innings of work. He allowed 4 ER through 4 hits and 2 walks. He still got the win however, and the pen candidates really shut the door behind him, allowing only 1 ER over 7 innings with only 5 hits allowed and no walks. The pen does look great so far!
• If Travis Snider continues to slump at the bottom of the lineup, I have a feeling he’ll be heading to Las Vegas. I’m not sure why he’s struggling so much, but with Jeremy Reed and Chris Lubanski lurking for his spot and with Snider still having options, he needs to get the bat going if he wants to keep his job. Besides, Randy Ruiz is proving all of the power the Jays wanted out of Snider, so if they play Adam Lind in LF they can fit Ruiz in at DH, which gives them a more potent lineup for 2010. Obviously, having an effective Snider is much more important, but he needs to learn to hit to his abilities first. I didn’t think this could or would happen before the spring started, but it’s definitely looking more likely now.

For those who are interested in watching hyped up players and seeing if they are as good as the hype, are you ever in for a treat over the next 2 days! First, we get to watch Aroldis Chapman take to the mound versus Kansas City in the late afternoon today. He will be followed by Stephen Strasburg, who is scheduled to take to the mound Tuesday against Detroit. Both pitchers are worth the look and should be fun to watch when they arrive in 2010, whether it happens at the beginning or middle of the season. It’s pretty rare that the league has two pitchers of this caliber making their starts. Let’s just say I’m glad they’re in the NL and that the Jays won’t have to face them for years to come!

Injuries are starting to pile up league wide which could get the ball rolling for trades. Angel Guzman, a RP with the Cubs they were counting on to set Carlos Marmol up, has gone down this spring and heightens the chances of a deal between them and the Jays. They’ve been interested in Jason Frasor for quite a while. Another team may be on the lookout for a RP however, as Joe Nathan has just been taken to get an MRI on his elbow. Minnesota has some internal options to take a spot in their pen, such as Anthony Slama who has dominated in the minor leagues or Rob Delaney, nut they could be on the lookout for more established and experienced names. When you consider the money they’ve spent to be competitive this season, from just $65 million in 2009 to over $93 million in 2010, you know they’re serious about winning and will deal if they have to in order to plug some early holes. It may be that Nathan will be fine, but Alex may have another trade partner here.

Other players who have gone down to injury across the league include C Russell Martin (to be replaced internally by AJ Hill and Brad Ausmus), and 3B Alex Gordon in Kansas City (to be replaced by Alberto Callaspo).

image from sitv.com

Alex Anthopolous and the new Toronto Blue Jays management continue to impress at every turn with the new, improved, and might I add bold, direction the team has taken. While most analysts and bloggers expected one of the big budget and free wheeling teams to sign the prospect from Cuba, the Reds and Jays did their homework, made sure they ponied up the money it was going to take to get him, and the Reds got the guy they wanted. Instead of waiting around until the draft comes along this summer, Alex got his staff to evaluate Aroldis properly and almost made the deal happen, completing the paperwork while on his honeymoon of all places. Even though the Jays didn’t land the big Cuban, I believe that the Jays did all that could be expected, offering more money than they ever have for an International prospect.

Now that Aroldis is a Red, the next question becomes where Aroldis will begin the year. Will it be in AA or AAA? Whatever the case, he’ll join Edinson Volquez, Homer Bailey, and Johnny Cueto at some point in the near future to provide the Reds with what could be a great 1-2-3-4 punch. While some analysts are saying it makes little sense for a small budget team like Cinci to grab someone like Chapman, I say non-sense, it makes perfect sense. The only prominent pitchers close to being MLB ready or just starting out are Matt Maloney and Travis Wood. Neither are stellar 1-3 prospects and they were listed as #8-#7 prospects respectively for the Reds by BA in 2010. They do have 2009  first rounder Mike Leake who could round out that rotation in 2012 to give the Reds one stellar rotation. In any case, the depth they had in prospect SP was extremely shallow and needed greater numbers with the injuries they’ve had to deal with recently. So, it makes perfect sense that they grab Aroldis.

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Reports state that both the Blue Jays and Angels have taken the lead in the sweepstakes with offers approximating $23,000,000. If true, it would leave all other offers rumoured in the dust and would make Aroldis decide between the 2, assuming no other team comes up with a better offer before one is agreed to.

Update 7 Jan:

It was brought to my attention that the Jays may actually be leading the race for Chapman due to 3 very important reasons.

1 – Canada has friendly relations with Cuba, whereas the United States do not. If Aroldis values his family and wants to bring them to North America, Canada is the easier country to do it with, obviously.

2 – Alex Anthopoulos returns from his honeymoon tomorrow, the exact day Aroldis hinted a deal could be completed and announced – pending physical of course, unless it was already done during the private scouting session.

3 – The Jays were the ONLY team to ask for and receive a private session which proves 2 things: Aroldis and his agent are willing to sign with Toronto, and the Jays proved their serious interest and presumably let Aroldis know he was their #1 priority.

The Aroldis Chapman sweepstakes have made me realize one major point about the Blue Jays: They lack International presence on their roster despite spending lots of money in the Dominican and in Venezuela. I realized this when it was mentioned that the presence of Kendry Morales on the Angels was a lure for Aroldis to sign there instead of going elsewhere. It also reminded me that Hedo Turkogulu signed with the Raptors specifically because the Turkish community was so strong in numbers within Toronto, while passing up more money from other teams.

The current 40-man roster for the Jays holds only 5 International players:

1. Reidier Gonzalez – Cuba
2. Jose Bautista – Dominican Republic
3. Luis Perez – Dominican Republic
4. Edwin Encarnacion – Dominican Republic
5. Alex Gonzalez – Venzuela

The remainder are all from the United States or Canada. That makes the International presence on the Jays 12.5% on the 40-man roster. For a quick comparison, the Red Sox currently have 12 International players for a 30% total. Does this make them the better team just because they have International presence? No, it’s obviously not that simple. But, if a Japanese player like Yu Darvish was looking to sign with an MLB club, would he be more likely to accept a deal to the Red Sox who have 3 prominent Japanese players, or the Jays who have none? This is exactly the reason why Alex should be willing to overpay slightly in order to get someone like Chapman on board, it sets the table for future signings and attracts other International players to follow suit.

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• It’s believed that the Marlins have increased their offer to Aroldis Chapman from their $13 million initial offer. Still, many people believe the Jays make a lot of sense and could be the likeliest destination for him - as stated on MLBTR. The same site also reports that he may decide on a club within 4-5 days and that it’s expected that either the Angels or Jays could land him for approximately $21 million which is well within the range of the Jays, but no years for the contract were disclosed.

• Previous 1st round Jays pick Russ Adams signed with the New York Mets. Interestingly, he was listed as a OF when signed, but you have to believe the Mets wanted him on board in case Jose Reyes re-injures himself in 2010.

• Two likely trading partners for Lyle Overbay can be crossed off the list, as Seattle landed Casey Kotchman from the Red Sox and are likely to re-sign Russell Branyan, the Braves landed Troy Glaus to play first and just signed ex-Jay Eric Hinske who can also play 1B. The remaining candidates to land Lyle include: the Giants – who apparently made a nice $17 million offer to Adam LaRoche who decided to say no, they are also rumored to be looking for a left-handed bat which Lyle Overbay qualifies for; the Mets – who could use a healthier, younger, and cheaper alternative to Carlos Delgado at 1B; and the Orioles – although trading with a division rival could be tricky in this case.

• Edwin Encarnacion burned himself in a fireworks accident in the Dominican Republic, but is fine after being treated.

• Miguel Olivo signed with the Rockies for $2 million with a $2.5 million option in 2011 that holds a 500K buyout, making the John Buck signing look that much better. On the catching note, the rumored Jays signing of Ramon Castro was apparently false, as he is still a FA. This leaves the possibility that a Buck-Chavez combo will begin the year for the Jays.

image from sportsagentblog.com

The Jays recently held a private session with Aroldis Chapman on the 31st of December, making them one of many teams that are chasing the 21 year old Cuban. So far, there are reports that the Red Sox (rumored to be around 15.5 million) and Marlins (rumored to be around 13 million) have made official offers, and that the Angels are preparing to do so as well. While it seems far fetched that the Jays could outbid both the Angels and Red Sox, it would be very impressive if they did. It could be the case that the Jays are simply doing their due diligence, but to have a private session of the day of New Year’s eve makes a statement that their interest is real and that he impressed enough during his bullpen session with all teams to have the Jays ask for the private session.

Does it make sense for the Jays to chase an unproven talent from Cuba? I’m not really sure. But, I do believe that the price will determine whether he is worth the risk. If he signs for a 5-year $50million dollar deal and ends up in the bullpen, it could really hurt the Jays and dampen their chances of keeping core players down the road. If they can manage to sign him for 5 years at $25 million, the contract is much more manageable.

I read a breakdown of his delivery and stuff at Baseball-Intellect which does a good job of analyzing what we do know about Aroldis, but we just don’t know enough yet to know if he’s an Oliver Perez type of pitcher, or whether he can really deliver as a #1-3 starter. If he becomes a #1 starter, the Jays would look great and fans would be thankful. The chances of this happening are fairly slim, but he does have that kind of potential. The biggest question marks seem to be whether he has the mental toughness to pitch 190+ high-quality innings, and whether his talent would translate in MLB. If he becomes a reliever or #4-5 starter at $10 million per season, will fans be forgiving at all? I believe chances are they would for a couple of simple reasons: it fits their plans of getting young talent into the organization and fans are sick of seeing the Jays sit idle while other teams attempt to gather the most talent.

I would argue that $10 million per season 4-5 years from now for a #1-3 starter would be a huge bargain. If the Jays could somehow deal Vernon Wells and his contract, Aroldis would become the highest paid player in the organization.

So, when will Aroldis sign? When he and his agents feel that the peak of the offers have been received and not before then. Lackey, Wolf, Vazquez and Halladay have new homes, leaving few attractive SP options on the market. With hype building and more teams joining the fray each day, I’m certain the low-ball contracts offered by the Red Sox and Marlins will not get a deal done, but it is curious that no team has decided to jump over the top to get him signed quickly. Could the Jays come out on top with a $25 million offer? They very well could at this point if other rumored amounts are correct.

Can the Jays even afford this amount if they know they are likely going to miss the playoffs for the next few seasons? Well, according to Cot’s, they have $62,417,857 alloted so far for 2010. I’m guessing that surpassing the $90 million mark would be hard to do, so the Jays could theoretically have in the vicinity of $27.5 million to hand Aroldis, well below what the rumors are stating about what he may receive in the end, but well above what others are currently offering. However, if the Jays know they can deal Downs and Overbay, they may have another $10 million which would put them well within the hunt at $37.5 million.

With Aroldis in the rotation, the Jays would lessen the focus on the young starters they do have and would be building quite a core of young pitchers. Morrow, Cecil, Romero, Rzepczynski, and Litsch would provide the Jays with one of the most promising young groups in the AL. Add Drabek, Stewart, and potentially others to that mix and you’ve got something cooking. Do I think it’s going to happen? Probably not since other teams are more desperate and have bigger budgets to chase him down with. Would I be surprised to see Alex pull it off? Definitely not, since the wily youngster has surprised almost everyone watching since he took the helm.

I say why not make Aroldis the 2 highest paid player on the Jays for the next 5 years? What do we have to lose?If anything, the Jays gain the option of dealing 1 starter, such as Shaun Marcum to another team in return for some young hitting talent.