Toronto Blue Jays manager John Gibbons hangs his head in shame after yet another mindboggling defeat to the Chicago White Sox. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Last night was game number 63.  That’s about 40% of the way through the season.  Crazier things have happened with 99 games to go, but this isn’t the beginning of the season anymore.  At this point in the year, you should have a good grasp of the direction a team is heading.  Everybody is warmed up.  Everybody is stretched out.  Every player should be playing at their best by now.

Over the last couple months, writers from Jays Journal, to DJF, to Blue Bird Banter, to CBS Sports, and even a blogger or 2 at ESPN have written about the high hopes and underachievements of this Blue Jays ballclub.  Even with the bats coming to life, the Jays are still nine games under .500.  How bad is it?  Fifth worst record in all of baseball.  The Jays pitching staff has given up the second most runs in all of baseball.  If you want perspective on that, here goes:  The Blue Jays acquired the Miami Marlins AND New York Mets BEST pitchers and both those teams have given up LESS runs than the Toronto Blue Jays.

Last night’s loss to the Chicago White Sox epitomizes the kind of season Toronto is having.  Over the last month, the Jays have taken series wins from some tough teams: Boston, San Francisco, and Texas to name a few.  They even split a couple of series with the likes Atlanta and Tampa Bay. Even both of those series could have easily been won if not for the kind of game that most of us witnessed last night in Chicago (and I’m not talking about the fog.)  Losing games in nuclear meltdown type fashion isn’t going to bring any club anywhere other than maybe to the proverbial division cellar.  In San Diego, another series against an inferior team like the White Sox, the same thing occurred; blunders cost the Blue Jays valuable wins.

The Jekyll-Hyde comparison is probably one of the most overused comparisons in all of baseball, but that’s the nature of this group of 25.  One could argue that injuries have played a role in the Jays’ failures, but any baseball fan could have told you injuries would occur with this team.  Most times, you cannot plan for injuries, but this team probably could have (and maybe should have.)  The history for many of the players is staggering. It’s because of injuries that Toronto actually has a Jekyll-Hyde persona.  The more scathing reality is the Blue Jays will never gel because the team’s best players will be unable to stay on the field, at the same time.

That’s especially true for the likes of Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes, Brett Lawrie, Sergio Santos, and Brandon Morrow.   It gets to a point however, where injuries can no longer be the scapegoat.  Alex Dineley wrote an amazing article back in May.  It had been on the minds  for some of us at Jays Journal as to why some teams like the Atlanta Braves, St.Louis Cardinals, and Oakland Athletics keep churning out great, healthy young pitchers, and some teams like the Kansas City Royals, Milwaukee Brewers, and Toronto Blue Jays, all teams that draft a lot of highly talented young arms, cannot.

What can you do with this club?  GM Alex Anthopoulos cannot bring in the right players to create a winning team.  The Jay’s farm system is a facade thanks to offseason trades he made.  There’s no talent in the minors ready to replace the talent the Blue Jays stand to lose by blowing up the parent club.  The Jays don’t seem to have the aptitude to develop young arms anyway (check out the major arm injury history to some of our youngest pitchers.  It’s one of the most alarming in all of baseball.)

A  big Blue Jays fan and Twitter follower asked me this question last night in response to my tweet:

@jayonjays @jaysjournal And thoughts of what this organization needs to do/ change to be of championship caliber ?

— ⚾Sherri⚾ (@Pj4002) June 11, 2013

That question spawned this article.  How do you fix it?  Honestly Sherri, you blow the whole damn thing up.  Everything, top to bottom!  If you’re Anthopoulos, you panic… because this season is going to cost you your job!  Moving Roy Halladay and Vernon Wells were shrewd moves, but the nice aura of light surrounding AA from those trades, is fading.  In case most Jays fans forgot (and it sounds like they have,) AA traded Halladay and brought in the likes of Kyle Drabek (currently injured and ineffective when healthy), Travis d’Arnaud (most promising prospect in years AA traded away to the Mets for R.A. Dickey), and essentially Anthony Gose (Michael Taylor was acquired as part of the Halladay deal, then traded to Oakland for Brett Wallace.  Wallace was later traded to Houston for Gose.)  None of them have made an impact in the four years since Halladay was shipped out.

The Wells trade to the Angels in 2011 brought in payroll relief and flexibility.  What did AA do?  He spent the money to acquire Reyes, Dickey, Johnson, Josh Thole, Emilio Bonifacio and Mark Buehrle.  He also spent Toronto’s farm system.  

So now after that valuable lesson in history, this is where we’re at.  This is why heads need to roll.  You fix this by bringing in somebody outside of the Toronto organization that is familiar with what a ballclub needs to be successful.  You consider the minds of and coaches from places like Tampa Bay, St.Louis, Atlanta, Texas, Arizona, and Washington.  You even consider trying to overpay for the minds of GMs Frank Wren (Atlanta), Mike Rizzo (Washington), and John Mozeliak (St.Louis.)  They will get you the coaching staff you need and have a proven track record in drafting and acquiring talent.  That’s how you fix this club.  You push the panic button, you fire everybody, you start over with somebody proven, and you go from there.

Two weeks ago, we were writing articles about the Blue Jays in the playoffs?  The playoffs?  Are you kidding me!  We’re going to write about the playoffs?  In The Dark Knight Rises, Bane says “Now is not the time to panic… that comes later.”  We were saying that back in April.  It’s mid-June.  Later is here.  Push that button!

Baseball is a game of variables.  Going into the 2012 season, the Blue Jays had a lot of them.  Question marks surrounded their pitching staff, catcher, first basemen, second basemen…..well, you get the picture.  Pretty much every position bar right field had a big ‘If’ in front of it.

If Brandon Morrow can stay healthy, Kyle Drabek makes the next step, Henderson Alvarez improves on his rookie season, and Dustin McGowan finally gets healthy we’ll have a pretty decent pitching staff.

If Brett Lawrie progresses as a third basemen and hitter, Colby Rasmus shows that 2010 was the real Colby Rasmus, J.P.

Sep 27, 2012; Toronto, ON, Canada; Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Brett Lawrie (13) is congratulated by center fielder Colby Rasmus (28) after his 2-run home run in the third inning against the New York Yankees at the Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-US PRESSWIRE

Arencibia continues to hit for power while also figuring out that getting on base isn’t such a bad idea, and Travis Snider finally gets his chance and proves he’s a major league hitter and fielder we’ll have a young core of players ready to take Toronto to the next level.

Well, we all know what happened.  The pitching staff either regressed or were so riddled with injuries that the only recognizable face for a good chunk of the season was Ricky Romero who, at the start of the season, was probably the one pitcher without an ‘If’ in front of his name.  Going into next season, he now probably has the biggest one of all, considering how monumentally poor he was.

The position players I mentioned above all took a step backwards while also spending time on the DL.  Add in the fact that players who may not have had question marks going into the season either stunk, Yunel Escobar, or missed significant portions of the season, Jose Bautista.

So, because most of the Jays ‘Ifs’ ended up in the negative ledger, is that their fault?  External factors do have some bearing, whether it be in game management or fitness regimes, but really, I don’t think the Jays would have threatened any playoff spot if managed by Casey Stengel or Dr. James Andrews himself was the team physician.

As Nassim Taleb wrote, we were Fooled By Randomness.  Every team in baseball goes into a season with a huge bag of ‘Ifs’.  For some it broke right, the San Francisco Giants come to mind, for others it didn’t.  How could you predict the Jays could have suffered so many injuries and down years?

But, with the advent of the second wild card, some spiffy marketing, and nice new uniforms Jays fans came to have expectations.  When these were dashed (quite resoundingly I may add) the masses are now demanding action.  Even respected national columnists are coming out with articles with ‘Jays Need to Contend ASAP‘ in the title.  What I found most interesting about Brunt’s missive on the Jays lost season was the one line ‘but who were still not quite as on-the-verge as the most optimistic would have believed.’

And they weren’t.  I’m too lazy to go back and search for references, but before the second wild card came into being, most Jays columnists, commentators, bloggers, etc had pegged 2014 as when the team may start to push for playoff spaces.  This was when the work Alex Anthopolous had done to the farm system would bear fruit and these young players would be augmented with veteran talent, meaning the Jays would achieve their goal of contending for years.

People seem to have lost sight of that timeline, now there is this hysteria about contending next season.  And from what I’ve read, due to the lack of quality on the free agent market, most are resigned to one or more of the Dunedin Legion of Doom being used as trade chips in an inevitable bold move designed to land a front line starter or big hitting (insert position here).

This would be a mistake.  Don’t get me wrong, I haven’t shut myself off to the inherent randomness of minor league pitchers even getting to the majors, but I think there is a very good chance that at least two of the DLOD are in the Jays rotation by 2014 and a third by 2015.  All Jays fans, when they close their eyes, dream of a home grown rotation in the vein of Tampa Bay.  Why blow this vision up in an effort to paper over one or two cracks of many?

The Jays have far too many holes to fill to honestly think adding a piece or two this off-season is going to get the job done.  What they do have, is talent in the minor leagues.  At catcher, center field, middle-infield, and especially pitching they are loaded.  Give this talent one more year to mature.  Then lets see where we are.

Sure, pick up a reliable innings eater, preferably through free agency, trade some off-cuts if you can to get a veteran stop gap at first, second, left, etc.  But, AA, whatever you do.  Do not mess with the Dunedin Legion of Doom.

Now’s the time to be patient.  Let’s just hope Alex is allowed to be.

What I’m interested in is how this affects Alex Anthopolous.  Tactically, I think this is a pretty schrewd move from Anthopolous.  No doubt, he’ll take his fair share of hits.  Hell, Farrell even threw him under the bus at his Boston press conference saying that AA indicated if a similar situation arose for him, he may have taken it.  Farrell also made it clear that he expressed interest in the Boston job as early as 2011.

These statements have some questioning why, if his heart wasn’t in the job, wasn’t he let go last year or even hired at all?  I really

Oct 23, 2012; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox new manager John Farrell talks to the media during a press conference at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-US PRESSWIRE

don’t think this can be pinned on Alex.  People lie at interviews.  Am going to admit that I have once or twice.  If Farrell was asked during his interviews with the Jays organization if he would potentially jump ship if Boston came a calling, I doubt very seriously he would have hesitated even for a second before professing all things Blue Jay.  He wanted to manage.  No one could predict the Sox going off the rails in 2011, costing Terry Francona his job.  Farrell obviously felt he needed to move to get the corner office.

So why wasn’t he allowed to move in 2011 then?  From all accounts, the Jays manager search was pretty exhaustive.  I would think Anthopolous wasn’t overly keen to go through the process again a year later.  Nor did he want to give up on Farrell after what was a reasonably decent debut.  He still thought he had his manager for the forseeable future.  Why give him to a division rival?

Now that he is gone, AA will probably take the odd hit about letting him leave now, and for Mike Aviles no less.  I don’t want to dwell on the compensation, but let’s be honest, unrealistic expectations had people worked in a frenzy about who the Jays should demand.  Farrell was a sub .500 manager with two seasons experience and more questions than answers.  The fact we got anything should be applauded.  Aviles will do a job next season, either as starting second basemen (worst case) or as a utility infielder (best case).  He also provides some flexibility if the Jays decide to move one or both of Yunel Escobar and Adeiny Hechavarria.

Why was he allowed to move then?

The sample size got larger.  After an 81 win season one, season two didn’t go so well, garnering eight fewer wins, with, what was agreed in spring training, a better team.  True, that team was decimated by injuries, but the news that Farrell expressed interest in a move last year may go a ways towards explaining some of other stuff that went on.  I am only speculating here, but as the clubhouse did seem to lack discipline, and comments were made on the lack of communication between coaching staff and players, could this have been a by-product of Farrell’s disappointment over not having been let go when Boston’s job became available?  It’s possible he had checked out already.

Where does this leave Anthopolous then?  For me, he’s just bought himself another year of grace.  Don’t get me wrong, if he does nothing aside from hire a new manager this off-season he will be skewered.  But I don’t think he now feels the pressure to go out and make a blockbuster deal or overpay the top free agent pitcher on the market.  If he doesn’t see any value this winter, I think AA will be content to sign a starter that will slot in as a third or fourth and possibly fill one of the holes in left, first, or second.

We don’t know exactly what is going to play out with the coaching staff.  There is a very real chance Farrell’s departure isn’t the last.  If we see a wholesale regime change, with a young team, surely it will take at least a year for the players to acclimatize to the new manager’s message.  And in a lot of ways that’s true.  Making a managerial switch now, allows Anthopolous the luxury of not having to make moves he doesn’t feel comfortable with in order to fill the gaps with veteran, albeit average talent.  It gives the minor league system, and it’s high end prospects, ie Anthony Gose, Jake Marisnick, Justin Nicolino, Noah Syndergaard, and Aaron Sanchez another year to mature.

Next season is important, but if the Jays don’t contend, which is a very strong possibility, the priority for the new coaching staff, in conjunction with the front office, will be to evaluate the talent available at the major league level.  If Farrell were still in place, vying for a new contract, lineup flexibility may have been sacrificed for wins.

Farrell’s defection allows the Jays more roster flexibility, a soft shield against potentially poor roster moves, and adds a player to the roster.  Anthopolous has done well here.  I don’t believe he will now take a step back from improving the roster in the hopes that 2014 sees minor league talent graduate.  But with a new manager now at the top of his priority list, the pressure to fill too many holes may have lessened somewhat.

Before looking at some of the negatives, let’s explore why I was in love with AA in the first place.  I’m not going to give an itemized list, but in broad strokes:

There have been some excellent deals done that have made the roster younger, cheaper, and potentially more talented.  The reason

August 23, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Edwin Encarnacion (10) receives congratulations from center fielder Colby Rasmus (28) after hitting a two run home run during the fourth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

I underline potential is simply because I don’t think we have seen the best from Colby Rasmus, Brett Lawrie, and, to a lesser extent, Yunel Escobar yet.  Still, given what was exchanged for the three players above, I think nobody would argue that they would not do the exact same trades again if given the chance.  I also have to believe that the Jays will come out winners on the Sergio Santos deal, despite the fact that, well, he didn’t really pitch this year.  And when he did, it wasn’t all that pretty.  Finally, the Vernon Wells deal has to rank as one of the greatest salary dumps of all time.  Even if it led to one of Anthopolous’ worst trades when he flipped Mike Napoli for Frank Francisco you still have to consider the combined deals on the positive side of the ledger.

Alex has also done an excellent job replenishing a pretty barren farm system.  The other writers for Jays Journal are all big prospect guys and without AA I’m willing to bet they would have a lot less interesting stuff to write about.  Anthopolous has been able to do accomplish this by sparing no expense on scouting (with reports that the Jays employ the largest scouting team in the major leagues), spending large amounts on the draft and international signees, and when the system was changed to effectively limit the Jays and others from gratuitously paying over-slot come draft time, finding creative ways to ensure high end talent was signed.

He also has been very good at locking up players, that have performed well, to deals that make sense for both the player and the club, while letting others, that may have over-performed, test free agency and take the draft pick, rather than over-pay.  Examples include Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and on the other side of the ledger, John Buck.

So, all in all, pretty positive.  And when I’m finished writing this piece, I’ll probably still have a lot of love for AA.  However, there have been some head-scratchers this season which have only served to muddy the waters of my affection.

I am not going to get involved in a long diatribe about cost parameters, how wealthy Rogers is, should AA have gone after some high end FA talent in 2012, etc.  When discussing sunk costs, I mean exactly that.  Money spent already, unwisely.  It could and should have been spent on something else, although this post will be far too long and rambling if I try and look at all other options for those particular funds.  The counter argument to everything I say, of course, will be that Rogers is a financial behemoth and dropping a million and half bucks here and there won’t make a dent in the bottom line.  Although true, this doesn’t make transactions discussed any better than they were.  Throwing the proverbial manure against the wall and seeing what sticks works for some, but it is not a realistic option for the Jays.  Money spent badly could always be used for something better.

The Houston Trade:  I wasn’t a big fan of this trade from the beginning.  Giving up four prospects for a guy who would be, at best, and innings eater wasn’t all that exciting.  True, the Jays have a serious gap in starting pitching talent between the lower minor league levels and the majors, but with the direction the season was heading, something more long term was needed and J.A. Happ is arbitration eligible.  So may not even be with the Jays next year.  Still, I could live with the deal as it saved me from watching Francisco Cordero for rest of the season.  But then the ‘player to be named later’ was announced as Kevin Comer and the deal went from uninspiring to a serious question mark.

I’m not going to sit here and say giving up Kevin Comer makes the trade a sure fire loss.  He’s a rookie ball pitcher.  So, in effect, a lottery ticket.  What frustrates me is the sunk costs involved.  If you read this bit from Fangraphs, Comer was a bit of a stretch as a supplemental pick based on an inconsistent senior year in high school.  Signability concerns also had him sliding down draft boards.  So, for the Jays, he was a high risk, high upside pick, and they spent serious money to get him to sign a pro contract.  At 1.65 million bucks, the Jays stumped up a million more than the picks right before and after got and even more than the teams three picks in front of him.  As the negotiations went down to the wire, Comer only made his pro debut in 2012, getting into ten games for the Bluefield Blue Jays before the trade.  According to my infantile mathematical mind, the Jays paid 165k for each appearance before deciding Comer wasn’t the prospect they initially thought.  That is not good business.  Somewhere, someone misjudged the talent.  If the player still had, in the team’s eyes, serious upside, you would give it more time to develop.  Not trade that upside for a fourth starter.  In my mind, the Jays brass realized they had made an error with Comer and cut their losses as best they could.  A pretty expensive mistake.

The Bullpen: This has been a source of a few costly mistakes over the last two seasons.  I don’t think anyone can argue that Jon Rauch was not worth his 3.5 million dollar deal.  But, if you look at his stat line from his 2010 in Minnesota, it is not all that bad.  And with the potential for Type B status, if the Jays decided not to take up his option they would get a supplemental draft pick.  So, you can (almost) say the 3.5 mill was not a sunk cost.  Francisco Cordero, however, is another story.  Like Rauch, Cordero was an ex-closer who had had success in the past, pitching in weaker divisions (compared to the AL East).  Where they diverged is twofold.  First, Cordero’s stats from 2011 look downright awful with an xFIP of 4.14, and unhealthy 5.43 K/9 rate, and a very lucky .214 BABIP.  If you are not striking guys out in the NL Central, it stands to reason you are going to struggle against the Yankees and Red Sox of this world.  Secondly, under the new CBA, Cordero is worth nothing at the end of the year.  Yet, AA still gave him four and a half million bucks and Blue Jays fans everywhere held there collective breaths whenever he trotted in from the ‘pen.

AA took one step forward in revamping the bullpen away from aging ex-closers in the off-season by trading for Santos.  I’m surprised it took him until the trade deadline to realize fully the new market dynamic for relievers was young, controllable, and, especially in the AL East, the ability to miss bats.  Cordero’s contract has to be considered a waste of some pretty significant dollars.

Bad Contracts: Every team in baseball hands out bad contracts.  They don’t necessarily need to be twenty million per, mega deals,  just deals where the dollar amount or tenor does not reflect the players value.  These are by-products of sports and I don’t want to spend any time nitpicking every contract handed out.

The two deals that made little sense at the time (and still don’t, especially with benefit of hindsight) satisfy the dollar value and tenor points mentioned above, but the main reason they rub the wrong way was the timing of the deals and how they will affect the club going forward.

Dustin McGowan cuts a sympathetic figure as a perpetually rehabbing pitcher with potential.  Unfortunately potential does not win you games, nor should it be paid for.  Having not thrown consistently since ’08 and with a year left on his current deal, the Jays inexplicably extended Dustin during spring training to the tune of two years at one point five per, with an option for a third at four million.  Despite the fact that McGowan seemed to be on the road to recovery when the contract was signed, having taken part in spring training, the timing still boggles the mind.  Taking into account his injury history and uneven performances when he did return to the team at the back end of 2011, all reasonable minds would surely have thought that Dustin needed to prove himself during the last year of his deal before meriting a new contract.  Sure, if he had a big season, it might cost you a bit more, but that would be a win.  The percentages were always going to be in favour of another breakdown and, unfortunately, that’s what the Blue Jays got.  Another lost season, and very likely, two years at one and half per that will yield few to zero innings pitched.

If Jeff Mathis has proven anything this season, it is that he is still a below average major league hitter, and a slightly above average defensive catcher.  Maybe that’s what you want as a back up catcher, and my colleague Kyle Matte breaks down some of his positives here.  While I’m a bit ambivalent about his actual value as a second catcher, I do feel quite strongly that there was absolutely no need to guarantee him that position for the next two seasons.  Why the Jays would remove the possibility that J.P. Arencibia and Travis D’arnaud are the two rostered catchers next year is beyond me.  They are your two best (and cheapest) options.  This backs them into a corner if those two have great spring trainings in 2013.  One would need to be dealt, more than likely Arencibia as his bat doesn’t play anywhere else, but with Mathis locked in, the Jays are not negotiating from a position of strength.  Of course, you could just decide to dfa Mathis and eat his salary.  This contract makes zero sense.  If you felt so strongly that stability and a veteran presence in the back up role was necessary, there are numerous options out there for less money.  Like a Yorvit Torrealba……

Omar Vizquel – right, so let me get this straight, you’re going to play the bulk of the year with a three man bench and one of those bench players is useless?  Your theory being that he provides a veteran presence.  An extra bench coach so to speak.  Horse manure, if you want an extra bench coach, hire one.  If you want to have value on the field, get a player that can win you a game.  Or at the very least, cover a position for more than one game in a row.

AA has build up a lot of cachet over the last few years. I don’t believe the moves I pointed out above has him spending any where near the credit he has accumulated.  Still, after a disappointing season, this off-season could be very important for Anthopolous as he looks to build the Jays into a perpetual contender in the AL East.  I don’t expect any big moves which will have fans automatically thinking playoff spots for 2013, but nor do I wish to see any more sunk costs.  We still have to live through another season of Dustin McGowan not pitching and Jeff Mathis not hitting any pitching.  That’s enough for me.