Apr 28, 2012; Toronto, ON, Canada; Fans of the Toronto Blue Jays display a Canadian flag with a Blue Jays logo during their game against the Seattle Mariners at the Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays beat the Mariners 7-0. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-US PRESSWIRE

So we have the starters we wanted needed. We have a significant upgrade in speed and skill and intangibles at short. THE ultimate utility man with speed to burn. Sure it hurts to lose Hech and Nicolino and Marisnick. We had a vested interest in them. They were part of the family and those kids helped our organization become relevant again. They have done more for this franchise than they realize. On their backs we climbed the rankings and were lauded in many circles. For that, I thank them all for their dedication and hard work.

Well we are not fixed yet. There are some true question marks but we have enough ammo in our arsenal to trade some good major league talent (Adam Lind, J.P. Arencibia, Maicer Izturis, Lincoln to name a few) to fill our most glaring needs at second and left field. I don’t mind an Anthony Gose/Rajai Davis platoon situation or Izturis as the starter at second. What it does gives us are options. Say the White Sox are willing to part with Gordon Beckham? A good catcher to replace A.J. Pierzynski and a decent utility infielder (Izturis). Pick a team needing a catcher and/or a 1B DH type and you have a suitor.

For the other question about our new manager one with Spanish language skills would be a great fit, along with a good personal respective rapport with the team (Dave Martinez, Sandy Alomar Jr.). I would keep Luis Rivera up there and still consider Sal Fasano and Manny Acta. Out of that list I am sure the right man is ready. I just want them to use the talent as it is presented to them and not try to make the team fit to them. Maximum utilization of the talent is what makes a good manager into a great one (like Jim Leyland and Joe Maddon).

I am stoked about the rest of off-season. Heck, even all the hardware hasn’t been awarded yet and it’s a 5 Team Race for next year. If this doesn’t excite you then please…go follow the Leafs and let us revel in baseball glory for a while…oh right the Leafs are….ummm…nevermind…

In terms of page views and feedback (both positive and negative, but thankfully mostly the former), the series was one of the most popular things I’ve done in my two-ish years of writing about the Blue Jays. As such, I’ve decided to break down the system once again, and hopefully another year of experience and knowledge will make the list that much more thorough and interesting to the readers.

The third part of the series will look at the middle infield positions. I have combined second base and shortstop, as most “second base prospects” are simply shortstop prospects who couldn’t handle the defensive demands in professional baseball. Fielding ability is the most important tool for a middle infielder, as Baseball America ranks it as the top priority for shortstops, and number two priority for second basemen. Arm strength is obviously supremely important for shortstops, ranking as second priority. On the other hand, second basemen make the shortest throws of any position, so arm strength is their least important tool. As second basemen are usually failed defensive shortstops, their offensive game needs to be a notch above. The hit tool is the highest priority, with power ranking third. Quickness is more important than raw speed, grading out as the second least important tool for both positions.

• Top middle infield prospect to reach MLB (last 5 years): Adeiny Hechavarria
• Middle Infielders in 2012 Top 30: 2
• Middle Infield WAR leaders in MLB (last 5 years): Aaron Hill (4.9), Marco Scutaro (7.4)

The King in the North

Adeiny Hechavarria – 2012 team(s): Triple-A Las Vegas, Toronto
(AAA) 443 AB, .312/.363/.424 (.788 OPS), 20 2B, 6 3B, 6 HR, 63 RBI, 8 SB, 38/86 BB/K
(MLB) 126 AB, .254/.280/.365 (.645 OPS), 8 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 0 SB, 4/32 BB/K

Aug 14, 2012; Toronto, ON, Canada; Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Adeiny Hechavarria (3) bats against the Chicago White Sox at the Rogers Centre. The White Sox beat the Blue Jays 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-US PRESSWIRE

Adeiny Hechavarria is the best middle infield prospect Toronto has developed since Aaron Hill, but that speaks more about the barren wasteland J.P. Ricciardi had for a farm system than his pure talent. The Cuban signed a four year Major-League deal back in April of 2010, and with 10 million in total value, he’s the most expensive International acquisition in Blue Jays history. Before players like Alex Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra, and the Derek Jeter revolutionized the position in the mid-to-late 1990’s, the shortstop’s top priority was run prevention, not run generation. Things have changed, as while defense is still important, shortstops are now expected to carry some weight on the offensive side as well. Adeiny Hechavarria has more in common with the shortstops of old, and his ultimate value will depend upon how well he can modernize his offensive game.

As Blue Jays fans saw over the final two months of the 2012 season, there is a bit of offensive potential to dream on. At the plate, Hechavarria looks like a capable hitter. His stance is very simple and calm, with his front side bordering on closed. He holds his hands low, as his swing is more conducive to line drives than shear power, and he wants to be as quick to the ball as possible. When Hechavarria swings, he quickly pulls his hands through the zone with good bat speed and just the slightest of uppercuts. It’s a significantly different swing than what we saw in the past, as Las Vegas 51s hitting coach Chad Mottola worked wonders with him this season. Previously, Hechavarria was wild and overaggressive at the plate, creating a long swing path with way too many exposable holes. He can still be a bit undisciplined, but his approach is further along than I had expected. His power potential isn’t enormous by any means, but 10-12 home runs annually aren’t out of the question.

Throughout his minor league career, Hechavarria had played 332 games at shortstop and just eight at second base. Despite this, in his 41 games in Toronto, he received only 13 starts at his natural position. It was five fewer starts than he received at third base, where he had never previously played in his career. To top it off, he sprinkled in another eight starts at second base for the Blue Jays. His raw defensive ability was resoundingly clear, as regardless of position his actions were smooth, his reactions were quick, and his throws were strong and accurate. Hechavarria’s footwork is exceptional, as his first step almost always seems to be the correct one. Even when he makes a mistake, his athleticism usually allows him to recover in time to make the play. His best position was shortstop, and he proved surprisingly strong at third base (though his bat would never work there). Some issues crept up at second base, however. On plays that required him to turn his back to the play – usually setting up double plays – he got a bit backwards and his footwork often led to either inaccurate or mistimed throws. It could be a concern if the Blue Jays expect him to play second base in more than a pinch.

His immediate future is a bit clouded, as while second base is likely to have an opening next season after Kelly Johnson’s departure, both his presently below average offense and footwork problems make that an imperfect fit. Hechavarria is much better suited for shortstop, but that would require Yunel Escobar to be elsewhere. Given how busy this coming offseason is likely to be, that’s well within the realm of possibility, but is anything but a guarantee. If things don’t play out in his favor, he’ll likely start the year down in Triple-A Buffalo, waiting for the call.

On the Rise

Christian Lopes – 2012 team(s): Rookie-Bluefield, Low-A Vancouver
223 AB, .278/.339/.462 (.801 OPS), 17 2B, 6 3B, 4 HR, 33 RBI, 6 SB, 17/40 BB/K

Christian Lopes playing for Team USA (Image via MLBDraftCountdown.wordpress.com)

Had Hechavarria played a few more games and lost his rookie (and therefore prospect) eligibility, Christian Lopes would have been the top dog in the middle infield category. As it stands, he’s only a step or two behind anyways. Lopes came from the 2011 draft, and like Matt Dean on the corner infield primer, he was paid a bonus well above the number suggested by the Commissioner’s office for his slot. A seventh round pick, Lopes received 800 thousand dollars to forgo his scholarship to USC and join the Blue Jays organization. He was signed on deadline day, and as such his professional debut was delayed until this past summer. On a Bluefield squad riddled with top prospects, Lopes took off and began separating himself from the pack.

Lopes was drafted as a shortstop, but the Blue Jays have already shifted him over to second base almost full time. Of his 58 games played, 43 came at second base. He still played in ten games at shortstop and another five at designated hitter, but it’s resoundingly clear where his future lies. The reasoning behind the move is that, despite a very normal sounding build at 6-feet and 185 pounds, Lopes is left a bit wanting in the athleticism department. He has some quickness, but his raw speed is below average leading to sub-par range. Furthermore, his arm strength is a very iffy tool as well. You can get away with that at the high school level, but in professional baseball, that’s simply not going to cut it at shortstop.

Fortunately, his bat is more than playable at second base, and is the main reason some draft experts thought he could go as high as the first round prior to a disappointing senior season at Edison High School. Lopes faces the pitcher with a very open stance, allowing him to track pitches well as they approach the zone. He’s very quiet at the plate, holding his hands low before gearing up for the swing. He double taps his front foot – something that may eventually need to be cleaned up – before striding and spinning his hips with nice weight transfer. Lopes has excellent bat speed, and despite only just turning 20 he has a very mature plate approach. He works the count, has a good two-strike approach, and isn’t afraid to use the opposite field if the pitch dictates doing so. The power should continue to develop as he matures physically, with the potential for 30+ doubles and 15+ home runs over a full season being very reasonable expectations.

He only played 10 games for Vancouver at the end of the 2012 season, but I’d be a little surprised if Lopes wasn’t pushed to full season ball with Lansing in 2013. The Midwest League can be a rough environment in which to hit, but Lopes has the bat skills to handle such an assignment. Another year in short season ball would be wasted development time. There are no strong middle infield prospects in the levels directly ahead of him, so the speed at which he advances is fully dependent upon his performance.

The Question Mark

Dickie Thon Jr – 2012 team: Rookie-Bluefield
149 AB, .221/.331/.309 (.640 OPS), 5 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 7 SB, 19/34 BB/K

Dickie Thon Jr at minor league camp during the spring of 2012 (Photo credit: John Lott of The National Post)

Ever since the Blue Jays selected Thon in the fifth round of the 2010 draft, his career has been a tumultuous one. Shortly after the draft, rumors surfaced that Richard Thon, Dickie’s father, was hoping to see his son selected by his former team, the Houston Astros. Furthermore, not only did he involve himself in the negotiations a little more than he likely should have, but he also made some aspects of their discussions open to the public when they should have been kept behind closed doors. Hurt feelings were prevalent, as apparently the Thon family was expecting Dickie to go higher than the fifth round. Leading up to the signing deadline it looked unlikely a deal would get done, but the team managed to find a way to get him under contract; an agreement that would include a hefty 1.5 million dollar signing bonus. That kind of money was usually reserved for mid first round picks, so one can quickly surmise just how highly the organization thought of the Puerto Rican high school player. Despite the hype he had a shaky 2011 debut, which was particularly surprising given the conservative Gulf Coast League assignment. Thon’s walk rate and athleticism were impressive, but his contact and power generating abilities were less than stellar. Some of that could be blamed on health, as a blood disorder during the spring sapped him of much of his strength. Questions about his long term future are really beginning to creep in after yet another rough showing for Bluefield in 2012.

Thon’s best trait is his athleticism, which is evident just by looking at him. Everything he does is smooth. His stance at the plate is relaxed, with his feet shoulder width apart and his front side slightly open. When Thon swings, he drops his front shoulder, strides forward, and follows through with a controlled swing designed for line drives. He has quick hands and a great eye at the plate, which makes his offensive struggles mind boggling. Thon is more fundamental than flash on defense, but has proved more than capable of handling shortstop at the professional level thanks to soft hands and good footwork. His arm is on the iffy side, but is not a liability. Thon’s struggles this season have really blurred his future, as while a .640 OPS doesn’t scream promotion, is a third year in short season ball (after he didn’t play in his draft year) really the best move? If the Blue Jays still think he’s a legitimate prospect, they’re almost forced to see if he’ll sink or swim in Lansing.

Remember the Name(s)

Franklin Barreto – 2012 team: N/A

Barreto was the highest rated international free agent in 2012, and agreed to terms with the Blue Jays on July 2nd (Photo by Alexander Mendoza)

Not only was Franklin Barreto the Blue Jays top acquisition during the 2012 International Free Agency period, he was the best player available according to expert Ben Badler of Baseball America (though some may reconsider that if Jairo Beras were brought into consideration). Toronto had reportedly been sniffing around Barreto for a long time, and once the signing period officially opened on July 2nd, they wasted no time in getting their man. The 16 year old was signed out of Venezuela for 1.45 million dollars, taking up a significant portion of the Blue Jays 2.9 million dollar IFA pool as per Major League Baseball’s new amateur talent regulations. Barreto has been in the spotlight for years, as his international tournament career began at the age of 10, and he’s won MVP after MVP in various 12-and-under and 14-and-under events over the years. Now that he’s officially under contract, the Blue Jays are hoping he can carry over that success into professional baseball in 2013.

Barreto is a shortstop now, but his long term future may be second base or in center field. It’s not due to lack of speed or arm strength, as he’s exceptional and solid in the two categories respectively. The problem lies with his defensive actions. Unlike Hechavarria and Thon, Barreto’s a bit rough at shortstop. His footwork and first step aren’t efficient, which creates problems even plus speed can’t make up for. Still, at just 16 years of age, there’s plenty of time for him to work things out. Fortunately, he has more than enough offensive game to be a legitimate prospect at second base or center field if such a move is inevitably required. Barreto has quick hands with a short swing and excellent pitch recognition, and could develop into an above average hitter with solid power potential. He’s an advanced enough hitter that I expect the Blue Jays will start him off in the Gulf Coast League next season, with the possibility of a late season promotion to Bluefield or Vancouver within the realm of possibility.

Dawel Lugo – 2012 team: GCL Blue Jays
170 AB, .224/.275/.329 (.604 OPS), 2 2B, 5 3B, 2 HR, 20 RBI, 5 SB, 7/25 BB/K

Dawel Lugo playing in the Dominican Republic (Image via DPLBaseball.com)

Dawel Lugo is yet another prospect who joined the organization through International Free Agency. He was a part of the rich – both in terms of talent and money – 2011 crop, the final period that, for all intents and purposes, was unregulated. Lugo received a 1.3 million dollar contract, which fell just short of Roberto Osuna for the highest bonus given to a Blue Jays acquisition that summer. Signed out of the Dominican Republic, the now 17 year old Lugo made his professional debut stateside in 2012. It’s a bit surprising, as often times Latin players so young will spend a season in the Dominican Summer League, getting adjusted to the professional regime while remaining in a culture they’re comfortable in. Instead, Lugo skipped the DSL altogether and was assigned directly to the Gulf Coast League in Florida. His statistics were modest, but little weight should be placed upon complex league numbers by such a young player, particularly in Lugo’s circumstances.

Lugo is in a similar position to Barreto in that while he’s currently playing shortstop, he’s very, very raw at the position. His arm strength is a huge asset to him, so if does eventually slide down the defensive spectrum, third base is a legitimate option. He was signed for his bat, however, and has the offensive potential to be an above average regular at third base if not a star at shortstop. Obviously that’s a long ways off and the uncertainty is tremendous, but he has the type of swing scouts love. His hands are lightning fast, and his plate coverage is off the charts. That often works against him, however, as he’ll swing at pitches he really shouldn’t because he knows he can put them in play anyways. As he matures as a baseball player and gets further exposed to North American coaching, that aggressiveness should be reeled back, allowing his contact ability to really shine. Lugo has power potential as well, as he already has a strong 6-foot-1, 185 pound frame at just 17 years old. Depending upon how he looks in extended spring training, Lugo could wind up at either Bluefield or the Gulf Coast next summer. As with every big name International Free Agent there’s a ton of risk, but he’ll be a name to remember next year and beyond.

I did a piece recently discussing the Blue Jays spine and how these positions may play out next season.  In it, I argued that

Aug. 27, 2012; Bronx, NY, USA; Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria (3) rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run against the New York Yankees during the fifth inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Debby Wong-US PRESSWIRE

Hechavarria, if breaking with the Jays in April 2013, should only do so as a shortstop.  That way he would be a plus defender at a premium defensive position.  This would mask the fact that he would probably be a replacement level bat at best.

His recent run of games doesn’t even qualify as small sample size, but watching Hechavarria of late has left me more comfortable that he could man the position without being a black hole on the offensive side.  The shift might only be slight, but I think it is fair to say that Adeiny has impressed since his re-call.  Defensively he is major league ready.  At the plate, he has been doing what a young hitter should, punish mistakes, and he has been doing so with a bit of pop.

Of course, pitchers do not have enough data yet to exploit his weaknesses.  It’s how he adjusts to the league when they catch up which will dictate what kind of long term hitter he can be.

Predicting what will happen this off-season is a fool’s errand.  Too many negatives have afflicted the club this season.  Changing for the sake of change could very well be the worst course of action.  The circumstances surrounding Yunel Escobar’s eye black fiasco and John Farrell’s subsequent vague allusions to baseball related ‘sit downs’ he’s had to have with him may mean the relationship damage is irreparable and Alex Anthopolous will look to cut his losses this winter.  I’m not going to speculate.

And despite my assertions above that I’d be more comfortable with Adeiny as the Jays shortstop than I was in August, I am still not sold that it would be the right move.  Looking at Escobar’s career WAR figures, he is prone to inconsistency:

Excuse my idiocy, y-axis values should read 2007-2012 rather than 1-6

You’ll have to excuse the roughness of the graph, but I’m not used to using excel on my Mac.  As per the caption, the numbers are from 2007 through 2012.

Using historical back testing to predict future performance is a dangerous game.  But, according to the numbers, Yunel is due a bit of a bounce next season.  At a salary of five million, the Jays hold a very cheap option on that upside.  Could he regress even further?  Maybe.  But if I was to run a statistical simulation predicting next year’s performance, I’m guessing I’d get a high probability the option is in the money.

(the above analysis is not scientific.  I know people have created models that do attempt to predict future performance but for the purpose of this article is not necessarily needed)

Right now Escobar’s value is at it’s lowest.  Removing all extraneous factors, emotion, etcetera from the equation, the decision is pretty easy.  Allow Escobar to increase his value with the Jays while Hechavarria works on his hit tool in Buffalo, away from spotlight in Toronto, and, of course, the offensive paradise that is the Pacific Coast League.

Worst case Yunel regresses further and Adeiny struggles in the International League.  But even then you are not much worse off than you are now.  You call up a plus defender and look to move Yunel.  Looking at the shortstop WAR leader-board it is not exactly a golden age for the position.  Someone will bite on his potential upside.

Best case scenario, they both play well.  Then you have options.  A position any general manager would like to be in.

I know there may not be the excitement there was last off-season, but with question marks over so many positions/players, it should definitely prove to be an interesting one.

Johnson has played so poorly here, it’s nearly impossible for the team to consider bringing him back for the 2013 season. Even if he would agree to a much more team friendly contract, that Blue Jays need to move on. After such a colossally disappointing season, optics will be a very important aspect of the offseason. Not only does the team need to make upgrades, but they need to be visual to the casual fan. As the September attendance has shown, the new logo hype has worn off, and the historically successful spring is long forgotten. Three months of constant heartbreak and frustration will do that to a fan base. Admittedly, I’ve watched far fewer Blue Jays games here in August and September than I did in May and June. Part of that has been due to less free time in the evenings, but a lot of it has to do with me questioning why I would want to put myself through three hours of alternating waves of agony and anger. Kelly Johnson cannot play second base for this team in 2013. We need a fresh start.

Unfortunately, the options at second base are rather limited. Dustin Pedroia and Robinson Cano are or will be under long term contract, and honestly, I’d rather claw out my own eyes than see Pedroia in a Blue Jays uniform anyway. Ian Kinsler and Brandon Phillips are signed to significant deals, and as both play for a contender, they’re doubtful to be available in trade. Ben Zobrist has a much more favorable contract with three years and 20 million (including options) remaining after 2012, but that’s exactly why Tampa Bay wouldn’t want to move him. Jason Kipnis, Neil Walker, and Dustin Ackley would be my preferred targets, but the cost may be deemed prohibitive as all three are under team control for four-plus years.

The free agent market has even less to offer. If he’s willing to move to second base, Stephen Drew is the marquee name. He missed nearly a full year with the broken ankle he suffered last July, and has been dreadful since his return. Even so, teams would be foolish to forget the 5.1 WAR he produced in 2010, his last healthy season. If Drew is the upside play, Marco Scutaro is the safe play. He’s been resurgent since being freed from Colorado and joining the pennant race in San Francisco, and could be counted on for solid but unspectacular production. There’s little else beyond those two, as the next best options appear to be Kelly Johnson, Maicer Izturis, and Freddy Sanchez – not an inspiring group.

August 11, 2012; Toronto, ON, CANADA; Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Adeiny Hechavarria (3) throws out New York Yankees baseman Mark Teixeira (not pictured) at the Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-US PRESSWIRE

If the team can’t make an addition through the trade market or free agency, Adeiny Hechavarria appears to be the fallback option. He’s looked about how I expected; raw, but with some potential. There’s no questioning his defensive prowess, as his actions in the field have looked incredibly smooth. His throws across the diamond from third base have been both powerful and accurate, so second base would be a cake walk. Hechavarria has looked raw at the plate, but at least to me, he hasn’t looked wild. There’s a difference between swinging wildly and missing, and Hechavarria has fallen into the latter category. Pitchers have been challenging him in the strike zone and his swings have looked good, but he doesn’t yet have the hit tool to make contact at an average or above rate. This can be improved. As Hechavarria continues to work with coaches to learn what pitchers throw and their sequencing, he’ll have a better idea what’s coming and can time his swing better. One thing is for certain; if Hechavarria is with the Blue Jays in 2013, Chad Mottola needs to be as well. Scouts have noticed a significant improvement in swing mechanics since Hechavarria began working with Mottola late last season, and honestly, I don’t want Dwayne Murphy anywhere near him or Anthony Gose.

If you ranked all of the options for second base, Hechavarria would probably be between the middle and the bottom third. He obviously has less upside than guys like Kipnis and Walker, but at the same time, I’m confident he could out produce most of the free agents available in this thin crop. As I mentioned in my article on Moises Sierra, it comes down to how the Blue Jays decide to allocate their resources – and by that I mean both money and prospects. The team won’t be able to upgrade second base, left field, designated hitter, and two spots in the rotation entirely from outside the organization, some plugs will be filled from within. Adeiny Hechavarria isn’t the best option for second base, but he’s really not a bad one either.

March 8, 2011; Port Charlotte, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays shortstop

There are certain decisions that teams and managers make that make you shake your head some times. It seems to me that for the second time since he’s been a Blue Jays player, Adeiny Hechavarria has been set up for failure by this organization. With little regard for how his mental state of mind, they’ve thrown him to the wolves, likely to send him down with a burst confidence level that may take a while to rebuild.

What am I talking about? First, it was the language. The Jays let Hechavarria down was when they failed to have a translator with him when he began his minors career with the Jays in HiA Dunedin. At the time, he was 21 years old and in a new country for the first time. He couldn’t speak the language of the land, and had to feel isolated. In baseball terms, the result was little interaction between a non-Spanish speaking coaching staff in Dunedin and Hechavarria. In plain English, he was left out to dry. After a .193/.217/.292 start over 167 PA, someone in the organization finally took note of it, spread the news, and got him promoted to AA, where the coaching staff did speak Spanish. The result? A much improved .273/.305/.360 line despite playing against better competition

The second instance of letting Hechavarria down just happened over the weekend. Having NEVER played 3B as a professional player, he was called up from AAA to play the position. While he didn’t make any errors on the day, he had to feel out of place playing in a new location he’d never seen, a new position he’d never played, and in a spot in the lineup (9th) that he rarely if ever hit from. Talk about setting a player up for failure. He struck out twice and walked once in his ABs on the day and didn’t look entirely lost over his last few ABs. But, in my estimation, leaving him at SS would have allowed him to concentrate a lot more on hitting and getting through the day at the plate instead of taking on the pressure of fielding the hot corner.  (more…)

March 2, 2012; Dunedin, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays shortstop

All Jays fans would love to dream, as Jose Bautista has, of the Jays contending for a playoff spot in 2012. It’s definitely still viable, as no single team has pulled away from the pack enough to make it unlikely for any other team to catch that last playoff position in the American League. The Jays currently sit 3 GB of the last Wild Card spot. However, every team has to be honest with itself and wonder, out loud, if we are going to chase a playoff spot this season, what’s the best way to go about it?

For the Toronto Blue Jays of 2012, the answer is not definite, but is now leaning towards the “Go Young” way. The injuries the team has faced of late, along with the fact that it is faced with so many holes to fill in its lineup, really leaves little other choice.

Obviously, the main issues that have caused the Jays to slide back in the chase for a playoff spot are the multitude of injuries the team has been forced to deal with. The latest two injuries, Jose Bautista and Brett Lawrie, really hurt the team most because they’re the first injuries to regular every day players, and they are so vital to the Jays scoring runs. (more…)

Jun. 23, 2012; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Justin Upton (10) during the fourth inning against Chicago Cubs at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Hilderbrand-US PRESSWIRE

Justin Upton is on the trade block… again. During the 2010 offseason, news leaked that Arizona might be willing to part with their franchise cornerstone, and the baseball world tied itself in a knot trying to figure out where he was going and for what. The team obviously never received an offer they deemed fair, as they held on to Upton and he responded with a career best year, producing a 139 OPS+ and being worth 5.7 or 6.4 WAR, depending upon whether you prefer the Baseball Reference or Fangraphs calculation. As a 23 year old, he was named an All Star, won a Silver Slugger Award, and finished fourth in MVP voting. He was one of the most exciting and talented players in baseball.

Now, just past the midpoint of the 2012 season, Arizona is once again shopping their right fielder. His performance has fallen off substantially, hitting only .273/.353/.401 through 289 at-bats. With a .324 wOBA, 97 RC+, and 1.2 WAR, even the advanced metrics can’t find many positives from his season. In short, he’s been a roughly league average player. Upton’s struggles have carried over to the team, as Arizona entered the break with a 42-43 record, four games back of the first place Dodgers. Just last year the Diamondbacks won 94 games to take the NL West – the second place Giants were eight games back – and despite a similar roster they haven’t been able to find their groove.

Back in June, the Diamondbacks managing partner Ken Kendrick had some harsh words for Upton, saying:

“He’s certainly not the Justin Upton that he has been in the past and that we would expect of him,” Kendrick said. “He’s 24 years old and it’s time for him to be a consistent performer and right now this year he’s not been that.”

It’s not common for an owner to call out any players, let alone his star player, and for good reason. Such comments can create a divide in the locker room, and come contract negotiation time, players won’t forget being publicly embarrassed. Imagine how things would have gone if the Rogers conglomerate had come out in late April and said Jose Bautista isn’t doing enough, despite literally carrying the team on his back last season. The fan backlash would have been palpable, and trade demands would have likely hit the airwaves shortly thereafter. Thankfully, nothing stupid was said, and as Jose always does, he rediscovered his stroke and is beating down the world one fastball at a time.

Back to Upton, if Arizona is foolish enough to make their franchise player available, you have to imagine the Blue Jays would be (or have been) one of the first to make a call. Upton is exactly the type of player Alex Anthopolous covets; young, athletic, dynamic, and under control (through 2015). The salary is not inconsequential, as over the final three years of the deal, Upton will earn 38.5 million, plus the remainder of this year’s 6.75 million. Given the team’s reluctance to hand elite free agents more than five years, the front office should be more than able to swallow three years at a high (but reasonable) salary.

Thanks to the Arizona beat reporters –- namely Nick Piecoro -– we at least have some idea what Kevin Towers, the Diamondbacks general manager, might be seeking in trade. Piecoro suggests the team is looking for a third baseman, shortstop, or top of the rotation starter. The first two requests make a ton of sense for Arizona. Between Ryan Roberts (258 PA), Cody Ransom (58 PA), Josh Bell (56 PA), and Geoff Blum (23 PA), the Diamondbacks have received a grand total of 0.0 WAR from their third basemen. At shortstop the team has Stephen Drew, but he only just returned from a long trip on the disabled list, and has free agency firmly in his sights. As a Scott Boras client there’s little doubt he’s going to test the waters, and recent comments made by the team suggest they’re not overly enthusiastic about bringing him back.

Despite possibly shipping their starting right fielder, outfield isn’t a pressing concern for the Diamondbacks. Between Chris Young, Gerardo Parra, Jason Kubel, and top prospects A.J. Pollock and Adam Eaton, the team could fill the void for the at least remainder of the year, before re-evaluating the position in the offseason. The top of the rotation starter request is a little less obvious, as despite losing Daniel Hudson to Tommy John surgery this week, they still have a strong core in Ian Kennedy, Trevor Cahill, and Wade Miley. The team’s top prospect Trevor Bauer recently joined the staff, and Tyler Skaggs, Archie Bradley, and Andrew Chafin are continuing to develop in the minor leagues while all possessing big ceilings. Their desire for a pitcher is likely due to the old adage “You can never have enough pitching”, and given the ridiculous amount of arm injuries to strike baseball this year, it’s hard to fault them in that regard.

With all that being said, what do the Blue Jays have to offer? Third base is basically a non starter, as despite Justin Upton’s immense ability, there is literally a 0% chance Alex Anthopolous would include Brett Lawrie in a deal. In terms of talent, salary, and public relations, he’s far too valuable to this team. At shortstop, however, there appears to be a match. Adeiny Hechavarria is performing extremely well in Triple-A this year, and the Diamondbacks are said to be a fan of his abilities. Like Toronto, Arizona has their Triple-A affiliate in the Pacific Coast League, so they’re well aware of the environment and the effect it can have on hitters and pitchers respectively.

Adeiny Hechavarria at bat with the Las Vegas 51s. BRENDAN KENNEDY / TORONTO STAR

In addition to Hechavarria, the Blue Jays have plenty of pitchers with top of the rotation potential for Arizona to look at. From the Lansing trio, the Diamondbacks would likely be focused on Noah Syndergaard and Aaron Sanchez, as both have clearly taken a step ahead of the left handed Justin Nicolino. Down in Bluefield, Daniel Norris and Kevin Comer might interest them, but their proximity (or lack thereof) to the major leagues might be a debilitating factor.

Hechavarria and a pitcher would obviously be insufficient to peel Upton away, so the Blue Jays would need to add more. As much as it hurts, that likely starts with one of the elite centerfield prospects, Anthony Gose and Jake Marisnick. They would likely favor Marisnick as he’s roughly a year and a half away, and as I mentioned, Arizona’s outfield need isn’t immediate. Gose should be ready within the next couple of months, and while he’s an elite defender, Arizona already has one of those in Chris Young. Both Young and Gose would lose a lot of value if shifted to a corner, so for the Diamondbacks, Marisnick is the more logical choice.

To round out the package, I’d offer Yan Gomes. He’s not in the Blue Jays top 30 prospects, but he could give Arizona some much needed offense from third base. Additionally, in the National League, his ability to play catcher, first base, and even some left field would be a huge positive. The Diamondbacks would like to contend again in 2013, and Gomes’ offensive spark and defensive versatility could fill a huge hole on their team until Matt Davidson, the team’s top third base prospect, is ready.

Would Jake Marisnick, Noah Syndergaard (or Aaron Sanchez), Adeiny Hechavarria, and Yan Gomes get the deal done with Arizona? Is it too much for the team to give up? The Blue Jays and Diamondbacks match up well, and I think an offer like this would be one of the best Arizona would receive. In addition to developing players for your own team, the other purpose of a farm system is to use in trade to acquire elite big league talent. As a prospect guy, losing these players would hurt, but for a player like Justin Upton, I’d make the deal. What do you think?

1. RHP Noah Syndergaard (LAN): 2-0, 11 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 10 K

Jays' pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard can match heat with the best of them at training camp in Duendin. (STEPH ROGERS photo)

Since mid-June, no one in the Blue Jays system has pitched better than Noah Syndergaard. Across his last five appearances – including two games this week – Syndergaard has allowed just 3 runs 25 innings, while striking out 29. He’s kept base runners to a minimum as well, with only 15 hits and 5 walks allowed. On July 8th he pitched 6 complete innings, which was a new career high for the big Texas right hander. After some early season inconsistency there was a lot of talk that Syndergaard had become overhyped and simply wasn’t as good as advertised, but the fact he’s been pitching at his best while finally getting stretched out with a starter’s workload speaks volumes about his true talent level. His switch from a curveball to a slider coincides with this incredible hot streak, and with such a powerful arm and 3/4 delivery the breaking ball does appear to suit him better. Syndergaard’s 80 strikeouts rank 5th in the Midwest League despite his inning total being between 15 and 35 lower than all the pitchers ahead and immediately behind him. He is a very real pitching prospect folks.

2. 2B Christian Lopes (BLU): 20 AB, .450/.476/.750 (1.226 OPS), 3 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 SB, 1/4 BB/K

Lopes ranks on the hot sheet for the second time in three weeks thanks to a continual display of impressive power for a middle infielder. A thin Bluefield schedule limited him to five games this week, but he took full advantage of his playing time with four multi-hit efforts, each of which included one extra base hit. He completely filled up the stat sheet, with the aforementioned doubles and home run being complemented by a walk and a pair of stolen bases, his first two of the year. With Hechavarria not long for the minor leagues and Dickie Thon struggling badly over the past two years, Lopes could soon be in the discussion for Toronto’s top middle infield prospect.

3. SS Adeiny Hechavarria (LAS): 27 AB, .407/.484/.704 (1.188 OPS), 0 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 1 SB, 4/5 BB/K

Anyone who is still simply attributing Hechavarria’s success to Las Vegas and the Pacific Coast League is missing out on some legitimate and exciting development. Hechavarria played in seven games this week, and much like Christian Lopes down in Bluefield, he put up a nice variety of numbers across the board. His week was highlighted by his June 2nd game against Reno, as he went 3-for-5 with a pair of solo home runs. The season line is now up to .317/.367/.449, and while that obviously won’t translate to Toronto, it really doesn’t need to given his defensive proficiency. His .281/.326/.409 road slash line is probably a more accurate representation of his talent level at this point, and is a significant improvement upon the .687 OPS he produced last year in Double-A. If Hechavarria can generate a .700 OPS while hitting 9th in a major league lineup, he has boatloads of value.

4. LF Chris Hawkins (LAN): 28 AB, .464/.545/.607 (1.152 OPS), 2 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 1 SB, 5/2 BB/K

Hawkins soared in April (.313 average, .767 OPS) and May (.327 average, .762 OPS), but completely fell apart in the month of June. He managed to hit only .160, and as a batting average dependent offensive player, his OPS plummeted to .437 for the month. After Jon Berti received a well deserved promotion to Dunedin, it appears as though Hawkins realized he need to shoulder the offensive load for the Lugnuts, as he came on extremely strong this week, including a pair of 4-for-4 games on the 6th and 8th. Hawkins produced a 174 ISO with Bluefield last season, and while the Midwest League is arguably the hardest place in all of minor league baseball to hit, his measly 76 ISO this season has been a gargantuan disappointment. It’s hard to argue his prospect stock has taken a bit of a hit this year.

5. C Yan Gomes (LAS): 23 AB, .304/.385/.739 (1.124 OPS), 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 2 SB, 3/3 BB/K

Gomes remains on fire as the trade deadline approaches, ranking on his second consecutive prospect hot sheet. He showed a lot of offensive diversification, with plenty of power, a trio of walks, and even a pair of stolen bases, tripling his season total. He’s actually hit better away from the friendly confines of Cashman Field, so prospective teams looking to find an offensive oriented catcher/third baseman can at least partially believe in the numbers he’s produced this year. If he remains within the organization, he could become a very valuable bench player for the Blue Jays. His catching background would allow the Blue Jays to play both Travis d’Arnaud and J.P. Arencibia in the lineup at the same time, acting as a viable alternative should one of them suffer an injury during game action.

6. 3B Kellen Sweeney (VAN): 19 AB, .316/.409/.737 (1.146 OPS), 2 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 0 SB, 3/4 BB/K

The 2012 season has been a colossal disappointment for Sweeney, who I thought was poised for a breakout year after an injury riddled 2011. Sweeney opened the year with Single-A Lansing but was completely overmatched, hitting .179/.297/.207 in 43 games. The team pulled him back to extended spring training, where he worked at the complex until being assigned to Vancouver in mid-June. Sweeney started off just as poorly, with a .130/.311/.196 line in 14 June games, but has picked things up significantly here in July. His two home runs this week were his first since way back in August of 2010, and he’s continued to show his usual incredible plate discipline. I really hope this is a sign of things to come, as I’ve always felt Sweeney has far more talent than his statistics have suggested.

Honorable mention: Carlos Perez (LAN), Roberto Osuna (BLU), Santiago Nessy (BLU), Aaron Sanchez (LAN), Deck McGuire (NH), John Stilson (NH)

1. C Travis d’Arnaud (LAS): 25 AB, .360/.385/.800 (1.185 OPS), 3 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 0 SB, 1/4 BB/K

March 17, 2012; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays catcher Travis d'Arnaud (15) catches in the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE

We’ve honestly reached the point where I’m a little bored to rank d’Arnaud as the hottest prospect in the system, because over the past two months it’s become a bit redundant. He is absolutely killing it right now, and only two things can save Pacific Coast League pitching: an injury or a promotion. I’m hoping for the latter. He finished off the week with back to back 0-for-4’s, but his season line is still an otherworldly .335/.385/.602. When you look at those numbers, keep in mind he’s a catcher who has played in 60 of Las Vegas’ 70 games this year, very few of which have been DH appearances. I spent three weeks in Las Vegas / Nevada during the spring of 2011, and that heat can be brutal. I’m truly amazed he has played this well, and the Blue Jays are running out of excuses to hold back his promotion.

2. LHP Sean Nolin (DUN): 0-0, 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K

John Stilson earned a promotion to Double-A this week, and for a while I was wondering why Sean Nolin didn’t get the call. He had yet another dominating start this week, shutting down Clearwater for 6 innings, with the only run he allowed coming on a solo home run. He’s second in the Florida State League in ERA and WHIP, and third in strikeouts –- a step or two ahead of the first overall pick in the 2011 draft, Gerrit Cole, in all categories. The reason behind the lack of promotion appears to be an injury, as on June 17th Nolin was placed on the minor league disabled list, retroactive to June 15th. I haven’t been able to find any details on the injury, but here’s hoping it’s nothing major and he’ll be able to get back on the mound quickly following the All Star break.

3. SS Adeiny Hechavarria (LAS): 27 AB, .407/.429/.556 (.985 OPS), 2 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 0 SB, 1/2 BB/K

Hechavarria had hits in each of his six games this week –- including three multi hit efforts –- extending his current hitting streak to 10 games. Without a doubt the PCL and Cashman Field are helping, but it would be foolish to say improvements to his swing haven’t played a part in the offensive surge. Between this year and last, Hechavarria has played 89 games for Las Vegas. He’s hit 348 in those games. Sample size is no longer at play here. Interestingly, the Blue Jays have had Hechavarria play some second base, with journeyman infielder Jonathan Diaz covering shortstop. One has to wonder if the team is preparing for life without Kelly Johnson, and if so, we could see the Cuban shortstop in Toronto as early as next month.

4. C Carlos Perez (LAN): 21 AB, .286/.423/.429 (.852 OPS), 3 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 0 SB, 5/2 BB/K

The Carlos Perez that Blue Jays fans came to love in 2010 has finally resurfaced. After a down year across the board with Lansing in 2011, Perez has come on strong in his second go-around of the Midwest League. This week’s hot performance boosted his season line to .271/.353/.433 (.787 OPS), with a very Carlos Perez-like walk rate of 10.9%. Despite failing to receiving a nod for the All Star game, it could be argued he has been Lansing’s best hitter this season after Chris Hawkins has failed to live up to expectations. Perez could be in line for a second half promotion to High-A Dunedin, though it’s possible the team likes how he is working with the talented Lansing staff and will hold him back until they’re ready to move up. Regardless, it’s great to see the real Carlos Perez back swinging the bat.

5. LHP Justin Nicolino (LAN): 0-0, 9 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 5 BB, 9 K

Nicolino is the first of the four Lansing piggybackers to make two starts in a week, as after making a 4 inning appearance ahead of Aaron Sanchez on June 11th, he received his first five inning start on June 16th against Great Lakes. He wasn’t his best on the 11th, as despite striking out a season-high six and allowing no runs, he walked a season-high four batters. Things were normalized a bit in his second game of the week, as he walked only one while striking out three. Nicolino has been a huge part of Lansing’s first half success, as after a victory on Sunday afternoon, the team moved to 47-22, 9.5 games ahead of the second place team in the Eastern Division. The Lugnuts are now guaranteed a spot in the playoffs. Whether or not Nicolino will be around to pitch in the postseason is a different story.

Honorable mention: Moises Sierra (LAS), Anthony Gose (LAS), Noah Syndergaard (LAN), Anthony DeSclafani (LAN)

March 2, 2012; Dunedin, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria (3) poses for a portrait during photo day at Florida Auto Exchange Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-US PRESSWIRE

1. SS Adeiny Hechavarria (LAS): 26 AB, .462/.517/.615 (1.132 OPS), 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 SB, 3/6 BB/K

Not only is the slick-fielding Cuban shortstop finally swinging the bat, he’s doing so with authority. With two extra base hits in six games this week, Hechavarria is up to 16 in 36 games on the year, good for a .146 ISO. Perhaps even more impressive than the boost in power is his improved plate discipline, as his three walks raised his season total to 14. The Las Vegas 51s were 4-2 this week – now 9-3 in May – and the offense has been the driving force behind that impressive record. Hechavarria has been the catalyst while playing the leadoff position, producing four multi-hit efforts in the week’s six games.

2. C Carlos Perez (LAN): 20 AB, .350/.409/.700 (1.109 OPS), 4 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 0 SB, 2/5 BB/K

The 2011 season was heartbreaking for both Carlos Perez and prospect fanatics alike, as he disappointed tremendously after three big years in short season ball. Unsurprisingly, he was reassigned to Lansing to open 2012, and while he hasn’t returned to his 2008-2010 level of performance, the improvements from last year are significant. The augmented power has been noteworthy, as after hitting only 26 extra base hits (17 2B, 6 3B, 3 HR) in 95 games last year for a .99 ISO, he’s already hit 14 in 27 games this year (11 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR) for a .171 ISO. This week’s performance was a big part of that, as despite playing in only five games, Perez had five extra base hits, including his first home run of the year. Now 21 years old in his second go around of the Midwest League, this is a very important season for Perez, and he’s starting it off well.

3. LF Marcus Knecht (DUN): 23 AB, .304/.360/.652 (1.012 OPS), 2 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 0 SB, 2/5 BB/K

After producing a vomit-inducing April line of .159/.245/.318 (.563 OPS), Marcus Knecht is finally showing a pulse. The power has been there all year, but simply making contact has proved extremely difficult for the Canadian left fielder. His struggles can almost entirely be tied into his 30.1% strikeout rate, which is significantly higher than the 23.5% mark he had during his breakout 2011 season. His statistics this week were fueled almost entirely by his monster May 8th performance against Fort Myers. Knecht went 4-for-5 with 2 HR and 5 RBI to help lead the D-Jays to a 16-4 victory, and earned Baseball America’s “Hitter of the Night” award for his effort.

4. CF Anthony Gose (LAS): 26 AB, .346/.346/.654 (1.000 OPS), 0 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 3 SB, 0/4 BB/K

For the second time in as many weeks, Anthony Gose had made the Blue Jays prospect hot sheet. Last week, his performance was a combination of plate discipline and speed. This week it was all about the power. The stolen bases were still there – Gose was a perfect 3-for-3 on attempts this week – but his extra base power was the story. Gose now has three home runs on the year, all of which have come in the past eight days. So, while only two count for this week’s hot sheet, it’s fairly obvious that he has rediscovered the power stroke that led to 16 bombs in 2011. His .327/.393/.551 slash line in May has boosted his season total to .252/.329/.371, which, while still uninspiring, is a huge improvement from his horrible April. Hitting primarily in the two-hole, Gose and Hechavarria are providing a huge boost at the top of the lineup for the suddenly surging 51’s.

5. RF Michael Crouse (DUN): 20 AB, .300/.440/.500 (.940 OPS), 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 1 SB, 5/4 BB/K

Having all three Dunedin outfielders in my top six this week was a great thing to see, as Crouse’s teammate Jake Marisnick was the final cut for the hot sheet. The trio hadn’t been off to a great start, and Crouse had been the worst of the group. Even after his big week, his batting average is still below the Mendoza line, and his OPS is a John McDonald-like .616. The one thing Crouse had been doing well was taking his walks, a trend he continued this week with five base-on-balls. This is a good sign, as it shows a lot of maturity. Many struggling hitters will go to the plate trying to smash the ball for at least an extra base hit to boost their season numbers back to respectability, but only find themselves walking back to the dugout with their bat in hand. Crouse hasn’t fallen into that trap, and as long as he continues to walk to the plate with a calm mind and sound approach, the hits will come.

Honorable mention: Jake Marisnick (DUN), Chris Hawkins (LAN), Noah Syndergaard (LAN), Sean Nolin (DUN)

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