Jays Journal » Aaron Hill

The One That Got Away

Joshua Menezes — Sun, 10 Feb 2013 04:55:09 +0000

Sept. 11, 2012; Phoenix, AZ, USA: Arizona Diamondbacks infielder Aaron Hill against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

At the beginning of the Toronto Blue Jays 2010 season the Blue Jays core was Vernon Wells, Adam Lind and Aaron Hill. Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion were just happy to get chances to start on a big league team.

Adam Lind is now a shadow of his former self and his annoying contract has him as the Jays 1st basemen for at least 2013.

The Blue Jays have since traded Vernon Wells and Aaron Hill. Even if Vernon Wells could get back to being a decent player, it’s hard for any Jays fan to miss him with the financial burden his contract would put on the team.

That brings us to Aaron Hill.

Aaron Hill had always been a good player that got better every season for the Blue Jays since his big league debut in 2005. In 2009 he really broke out with a career high 36 homeruns and a career high 4.1 WAR according to fangraphs.

Hill didn’t exactly follow up his 2009 “breakout” with an encore performance. He didn’t even hit as well as he did before 2009. He just completely lost it and put up 2 WAR in 2010 and 2011 combined.

The Blue Jays had to get rid of him. Hill’s trade value was very low when the Jays traded him in August of 2011. The Blue Jays getting Kelly Johnson for Hill and John McDonald seemed like a great trade because Johnson was having a better season than Hill. Then again so was every other starting player in the big leagues.

In 2012 Aaron Hill put up a 6.2 WAR for the Diamondbacks and recently earned himself a contract extension that will keep him in Arizona through the 2016 season.

As bitter as some Blue Jays fans might be about Hill’s resurrection last season, he was absolutely brutal in his last two seasons with the Jays so they had to get rid of him, even if meant selling very low on him.

It’s hard to decide what to make of Aaron Hill’s 2012. Most Blue Jays fans would like to believe it was just a random good season or that the NL West is that much easier than the AL East or that a change of scenery really makes a difference.

There’s a much better chance the Diamondbacks saw a fixable flaw that the Blue Jays missed and that Hill just figured out what he was doing wrong in his last 2 years with the Jays.

You can’t assume Aaron Hill’s back with one great season after two horrible ones. Here is to hoping Hill is back and his career is more like his 2009 and 2012 and not his 2010 and 2011. The Diamondbacks are betting Aaron Hill’s back. If they’re right it’s a shame he couldn’t have come back with the Blue Jays.

Kelly Johnson: The Problem No One is Talking About

Kyle Matte — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 16:12:11 +0000

In a season already loaded with storylines, here’s yet another one to ponder as the year rolls on: What kind of a future does Kelly Johnson have with the Blue Jays? Since being acquired from the Diamondbacks last August, Johnson has provided stability to a position that had been severely lacking under the Aaron Hill regime of the previous two seasons.

Apr 14, 2012; Toronto, ON, Canada; Toronto Blue Jays second baseman Kelly Johnson (2) bats against the Baltimore Orioles at the Rogers Centre. The Orioles beat the Blue Jays 6-4. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-US PRESSWIRE

Johnson was a free agent this past offseason, and after the market wasn’t quite as inviting as his agent may have hoped, he accepted the Blue Jays’ offer of arbitration to guarantee his return to the club for the 2012 season. In mid-January, the two sides agreed to terms on a one year contract worth $6.375 million, giving the Blue Jays a reliable second baseman for the season while also giving Johnson another crack at free agency as a 31-year-old. The deal didn’t come without some uproar, as fans less familiar with the Major League Baseball salary arbitration system pointed to his .222/.304/.413 (.717 OPS) slash line in 2011, and asked, rather loudly, how such a performance is deserving of such a significant salary.

Now three weeks into the season, the naysayers have been silenced, as Johnson has been the Blue Jays’ most productive hitter early on. While his .246 average entering Wednesday isn’t spectacular, he has been incredibly disciplined at the plate, with a team leading 18.4% walk rate – yes, ahead of even Jose Bautista. Power has always been a big part of Johnson’s game and that trend has continued, as his 213 ISO is second on the team, behind only Edwin Encarnacion. While it’s far too early to look at his defensive metrics for this season, he has passed the eye test with flying colors, emphasized by his ridiculous backhand glove flip to first base against the Royals last weekend.

In summary, he’s been really, really good. FanGraphs has Johnson at 0.8 WAR already, while Baseball Reference views him in an even brighter light, crediting him with 0.9 WAR. We are 10.5% through the season entering Wednesday’s game against Baltimore, which puts Johnson on pace for 7.6 WAR or 8.6 WAR, depending upon whose system you prefer. “On-pace” is often a silly phrase, particularly when extrapolating from such a small sample, but it can give an idea of how well a player has performed. 4-5 WAR is typical for an All Star-caliber season, while 7-8 WAR is the range for an MVP-type campaign. Early season disclaimers aside, any time a player on your favorite team is performing on that level, you have to take notice.

Such production is both a blessing and a curse for a team like the Blue Jays, who, by all accounts, are on the fringe of playoff contention, but may not necessarily see the promised land this year. As previously mentioned, Johnson is playing out a one-year contract, which means someone, Toronto or otherwise, will be paying for this performance next year and beyond. Without a doubt, the Blue Jays front office would have greatly preferred to see this production while under a team-friendly long-term contract or during a season in which postseason baseball was more of a guarantee.

If Johnson keeps up this pace, or something close to it (which, given his tremendous 2010 season, is very possible), what does Toronto do with him? It’s doubtful Johnson’s camp would have interest in working on an in-season extension so long as he continues to play as well as he has, so the Blue Jays appear to have two choices: trade him at the deadline if the team is out of contention, or keep him until the offseason and pay him on the highly competitive open market.

With the lack of talented second base prospects in the system, the trade deadline option seems like a rather poor idea on first glance. In reality, it comes down to timelines. If the Blue Jays’ front office feels like their window to contend for championships opens in 2014, perhaps they’re hesitant to give Johnson four years, as he’d be an expensive league-average player in the latter half of the deal when the team is seeking those playoff berths. If that is the shared belief of the front office, then a trade becomes more of a viable option. It’s impossible to suggest what kind of a return the team would get four months in advance, but it’s fair to say it would be substantial if he continues to produce like he has here in April.

If the Blue Jays prove to be legitimate contenders this season and either make, or only nearly miss, the playoffs, then the team is almost forced to make a genuine effort to re-sign Johnson, though nothing is guaranteed with the demands he could have and the competition from 29 other teams.

To get a better of idea of how much he might cost, we need to look at contracts given out to other above average second baseman over the past few seasons, and try and find the best comparables.

Seven recently signed contracts by second basemen, with WAR from FanGraphs, and contract information from Baseball Prospectus.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the top five contracts given out were to players still under team control, as savvy front offices don’t usually let their elite talent reach the open market as free agents. Johnson’s situation is a bit different from most of the second baseman on the list though, as he has experienced a very inconsistent career, and is already on his third team, something no other player on the list can compare to. Kinsler is a consistent MVP-caliber player, while Infante and Hill were mostly average players before receiving those contracts, so the three should be quickly ruled out as comparables.

The remaining four deals averaged 4.75 years in length, but were also given out to players who averaged only 29.3 years of age. With Johnson entering his age 31 season in 2013, some of that length can be shaved off, with three years – or perhaps three years with an option – being more logical targets. The salary is highly dependent upon his total production – which we don’t yet know – but as an estimate, let’s says he slightly exceeds his career-best 2010 season, and finishes at 6.0 fWAR, the same number Brandon Phillips achieved before signing his mega deal. Phillips’ popularity in Cincinnati and historical success (he averaged 4.0 WAR in his six full seasons) earned him the length of the deal, but the annual salary of $12 million was due mostly to his huge 2011 season and is a number I feel would be a fair comparable for Johnson should he perform to the 6.0 fWAR estimate I placed upon him. While that number may seem awfully high, the baseball economy is on the rise, and teams aren’t afraid to spend money on talent.

Should the production continue, would a three-year, $36 million deal plus an option be too much for Alex Anthopoulos to pay? With Johnson’s inconsistent history it’s certainly a bit of a gamble, but if the team proves to be a contender, the lack of a viable in-house alternative almost forces his hand.

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2012 Jays Preview: Who Will Man Second Base?

Mat Germain — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 12:19:06 +0000

Of all of the positions the Jays will need to address for 2012, the pen and second base stand out as the most pressing of all. At this point, it’s hard to assess how the Jays will revamp their pen. However, the picture is much clearer at second base, where both internal and external options are very limited. Here are the only “viable” candidates I have taken note of, excluding Robinson Cano who is going to remain a Yankee and will have his option picked up.

Aaron Hill (30) – $8M club option for ’12 and $8M club option for ’13 – Type B FA (more…)

Adeiny Hechavarria Improving in New Hampshire

Mat Germain — Tue, 09 Aug 2011 17:09:50 +0000

I have always been a believer in Adeiny Hechavarria becoming the SS of the future for the Toronto Blue Jays. Why? Well, to me, the evidence lies in his defensive abilities, which would place him in the top 5 of all of MLB short stops if he was promoted to The Show today. Once you know that, you know that he will be able to man the SS position and the question becomes whether or not he can hit. Based on reports gathered from various scouting sites and videos, I really do think he has a good chance to impress even the most serious doubters when he develops in the majors, and that he’ll become a very important part of the Jays as they take aim at their next championships. Of late, Adeiny has shown glimpses that point to my opinion being credible, and he is outpacing the progression of other Cuban prospects who have come before him, or are coming up along with him.

Adeiny Hechavarria, as compared to Jose Iglesias (21 years old) (more…)

Brett Lawrie’s Debut a Success

Mat Germain — Sat, 06 Aug 2011 12:00:51 +0000

How do we evaluate whether or not a player’s debut is a success or not? If we’re looking at it from the team’s point of view, and baseball is a team sport, it should be based on whether or not the team wins and whether or not that player helped the team earn that win. Well, if we use that analogy, Brett Lawrie’s debut with the Toronto Blue Jays was one big success story.

I’ll point out what I was able to observe during the game.

Pre-Game (more…)

Yunel Escobar Acquisition Proves Ridiculous, Travis Snider Improves

Mat Germain — Thu, 07 Jul 2011 12:19:33 +0000

Today, I’m going to focus on two players that I feel can have a major impact on the second half of the season for the Jays. One has had the focus placed on him since his return from the minors, while the other player has been somewhat forgotten as a player who has helped ensure the Jays stay around .500 this season despite facing so many obstacles to remain there.

Yunel Escobar (more…)

Half Way Through: Blue Jays Position Players W.A.R

Fri, 01 Jul 2011 03:04:01 +0000

Just over the half way point of the season, it is a great time to take a look at how our individual Blue Jays have faired. Today I will examine the stat: Wins above replacement player (war).

(more…)

The Signing of Yunel Escobar and Its Impacts

Mat Germain — Mon, 20 Jun 2011 14:35:48 +0000

Although it looks small on the surface, the extension of Yunel Escobar to an extension has many implications that need to be disected. His contract calls for a $5 million salary in 2012, the same amount in 2013, and the club holds $5 million options for 2014 and 2015. All-in-all, the deal can cost the Jays as little as $10 million for 2 years, and up to $20 million for 4 years if they pick up both options. (all figures used courstey of Cot’s Baseball Contracts) Here are those that I have come up with (feel free to add your own in the comments):

Aaron Hill‘s Time With the Jays Ending? (more…)

The Argument for the Jays to Call Him Up: Brett Lawrie vs Ryan Braun

Mat Germain — Sun, 29 May 2011 11:52:41 +0000

Let me start this post by asking you this: if Brett Lawrie was currently playing in the Detroit Tigers organization, where Jim Leyland resides and calls up the most talented player every time, do you believe he would still be in AAA today? What about if he were playing for the Braves organization? In my opinion, no, he wouldn’t, and do you know why? Because those organizations put an emphasis on talent over experience and like to get their young players acclimated to the pressure of MLB as soon as they feel they can handle it. Why? Because they know that once they get acclimated tot he majors, the talent takes over and the player and organization end up much better off for it. (more…)

1/4 through 2011: Blue Jay Hitters

Mon, 23 May 2011 19:13:37 +0000

Just over a quarter of the way through 2011, the Blue Jays sit at .500 (23-23). Is this where you expected they would be?

As with any team in any season, there have been ups and downs for the 2011 Jays. The team has dealt with significant injuries (Morrow, Lind, Hill, Davis), and seen a number of players struggle (Snider, Encarnacion, Rivera, Hill). On the positive side, Jose Bautista has been the best hitter in all of baseball (wOBA .549), and the bullpen has been strong. (more…)