July 18, 2012; San Diego, CA, USA; Houston Astros relief pitcher Brandon Lyon (37) pitches against the San Diego Padres during the sixth inning at PETCO Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-US PRESSWIRE

On first glance, I have to admit that the Jays are sending a whole lot of talent over to the Astros in return for a pitching upgrade. It’s far more prudent, however, to look through the entire package before jumping to conclusions. For this year, I absolutely love this deal. It gives the Jays a #4 caliber pitcher who can chew up a lot of innings and support the current staff. The Jays also improve the pen a great deal by simply dealing Francisco Cordero, but get even better since they can replace him with Brandon Lyon. Finally, the Jays improve a great deal on the bench and in the OF with the replacement of Ben Francisco with Travis Snider. As I proposed yesterday, all of this makes the Jays younger, and much better for the remainder of 2012.

For this season, it’s no contest, the Jays flat out win this deal. But what about the ever after?

Before we touch on anything else, we need to know the age, cost, and controllability of each player.

To the Toronto Blue Jays: (more…)

Jays' pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard can match heat with the best of them at training camp in Dunedin. (STEPH ROGERS photo)

The alarming splits I mentioned were the pitcher’s respective starter versus reliever numbers, and they’ve only become worse since I wrote that article. Including his most recent game on June 8th, Syndergaard has produced like the elite pitching prospect he is while starting, with a 0.79 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. When coming out of the bullpen, however, he has pitched like an on-the-verge-of-release non-prospect, with a 9.00 ERA and 2.06 WHIP. The reverse is true with his partner Anthony DeSclafani, and all of the astonishing numbers can be viewed in the table below.

The starter versus reliever splits for Noah Syndergaard and Anthony DeSclafani

I had been monitoring these splits for some time, but given the sample size and the fact I haven’t been able to actually see the pitchers in person, I decided to hold back on writing the article. This changed last week, when Curt Rallo released a feature piece about Noah Syndergaard on MiLB.com. Hidden in the final paragraph were a couple of quotes that drew my attention and confirmed my suspicions.

It’s kind of frustrating, but at the same time, I know there’s a goal, there’s a plan that the Blue Jays have for me,” Syndergaard said of alternating starts and relief outings. “I’m OK with it, but I definitely feel more comfortable starting. I still haven’t figured out the relieving role. It would be a lot easier to acclimate to my routine if I was a starter every five days. The first few relief appearances, it was tough to get my arm loose, but I feel that I have a set routine going and get my arm loose.

It makes sense, when you really think about it. Noah Syndergaard is a very large man that stands 6-foot-5 and weighs 200-plus pounds. He’s been a starter for his entire pitching career, and it probably takes a while for him to get that big body loose. When working in relief, you warm up with the rest of your team during pregame, but then sit around for an hour or two before it’s your turn to come in and pitch, at which point you have five to ten minutes to get yourself ready. The starting pitcher has a vastly different routine, as over the course of nearly an hour he’ll stretch, play catch, long toss, throw in the bullpen, and then finally warm up on the mound.

I asked Jesse Goldberg-Strassler, the Lugnuts primary radio announcer, whether he saw any noticeable differences, velocity or otherwise, when Syndergaard was starting versus relieving. He didn’t believe there were any velocity variations, but noted that Syndergaard often appeared off rhythm during his relief appearances. Jesse described how he would be breezing through the outing, but once he got in trouble, things would pile up, making him very susceptible to big innings. From my perspective, that sounds like someone who can’t find a good feel for their pitches.

As I mentioned earlier, the reverse is true for Syndergaard’s partner, 2011 draft pick Anthony DeSclafani. With the University of Florida, DeSclafani pitched almost exclusively in relief over his sophomore and junior seasons, totaling 39 relief appearances against only eight starts. His fastball/slider combination is much more suited to the bullpen, and with the seemingly endless amount of starting pitching depth ahead of him, one has to seriously doubt DeSclafani’s future is long for the rotation.

So we have two pitchers –- one a long-term starter, the other a long-term reliever -– both of whom are struggling in their opposite roles. At what point does the Blue Jays front office put the kibosh on this experiment? I have little doubt that they are aware of these shocking splits, likely even more so with Syndergaard’s recent comments. I do understand wanting to have DeSclafani throw starter innings, as it builds arm strength and allows him to develop his secondary pitches at an advanced rate. The question is, why not have Syndergaard start every turn, and have DeSclafani finish his games? Both would remain in the roles they find most comfortable, and both would receive the necessary innings to progress development. There’s a point at which simply ignoring a problem becomes negligence, and while I’m sure the Blue Jays have the absolute best intentions behind this arrangement, I’m beginning to wonder whether this “learning exercise” has become more of a problem than a solution.

Each pitcher has his strengths and weaknesses, which left a lot of room for personal bias and gut feelings to creep into the rankings. To get an idea of just how variant the order was, below is a chart of the pitchers and their rankings in each of the respective lists.

The only two with identical orders were Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus and myself, and just for the record, my list was released over a month earlier. The most obvious trend is that Sanchez consistently ranked low, and only Keith Law of ESPN placed him within baseball’s top 100 prospects. The worst ranking was by the aforementioned Mr. Goldstein, who added “He’s still a high-ceiling arm, but he will need more work than was anticipated.” Statistically speaking, it made sense – Sanchez did not have a very good 2011 season, but my goodness, how rapidly things can change in only a few months.

Drew Hutchison is in the show while Daniel Norris still awaits his short season assignment in extended spring training, putting the three Lansing pitchers, Syndergaard, Nicolino and Sanchez, on a level playing field. They have been pitching in a piggyback system, where one pitcher starts their scheduled game and pitches his three or four innings, and is then immediately followed by the other pitcher who throws the same number of innings in the same game. Syndergaard has been pairing with a 2011 draft pick, Anthony DeSclafani, while Sanchez and Nicolino have been pitching in tandem.

After an offseason in which he was the most heavily scrutinized, the 2012 season has been all about Aaron Sanchez. Speaking in terms of both statistics and recent scouting reports, he has been the most impressive of the trio, and could easily find himself soaring up mid-season prospect lists.

The most obvious question is, what has changed?

People may be quick to suggest that he’s finally resolved his glaring command issues, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. His 4.70 walks per nine innings this season is actually higher than it was in 2011, when he walked 4.31 batters per nine innings. The biggest change, at least through the first six weeks of the season, has been his ability to completely overpower hitters. His strikeout rate of 10.96 batters per nine innings is exceptional, and has helped Sanchez to a microscopic .111 opposing batting average. That number is obviously unsustainable –- his BABIP is only .182 –- but both his current season (2.27 GO/AO) and historical (2.90 in 2010, 1.60 in 2011) ground ball rates suggest he should always be well above average in that respect, and it speaks to how much life he has on pitches

The next question should be, how has he changed?

The scouting reports on Sanchez have always been based around one word: projection. When he was selected by the Blue Jays in the first round of the 2010 draft, he was a rail thin high school kid, standing 6-foot-3 and weighing a meager 170 pounds. His fastball sat in the 88-91 range with the highest readings coming in at 93 mph, and the curveball Sanchez threw was considered only an average offering. Despite this, Sanchez was the type of pitcher scouts drool over in high school, as they knew his body had so much more to offer. Projection.

Sanchez got into a handful of games in late 2010, but didn’t truly get some exposure until the summer of 2011, when he made his debut with Toronto’s newest affiliate, the Bluefield Blue Jays. He had already beefed up a few pounds, and it was evident on the mound. His fastball was beginning to sit in the low 90’s, and touched as high as 95 mph. His curveball was significantly improved as well, showing tight rotation and hard, late break. Sanchez’ curve was even rated as the best in the system by Baseball America, a notable feat given that six of the top seven arms in the system (according to my rankings) throw a curveball.

He has taken things a step further in the first two months of 2012, with multiple reports, including one by Toronto General Manager Alex Anthopoulos himself, stating that Sanchez was now being clocked as high as 97 mph on his fastball. In an April 26th “Scouting Notebook” over at Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Goldstein backed up that report, stating that Sanchez has been the most impressive of the Lansing trio, throwing his fastball 91-97 mph and showing a plus curveball. Now bulked up to 190 pounds, projection is becoming reality.

Prospect rankings are extremely fluid, so it’s not unusual for a hot or slow start to a season to cause a player to move up or down in the minds of writers. Sanchez still has legitimate flaws, but it’s quite obvious that he’s more than just the team’s fifth best pitching prospect as I gave him credit for last winter. In fact, if I were to re-rank the aforementioned five pitchers, I might boost Sanchez as high as second. His fastball is only a step behind Noah Syndergaard’s, but his curveball is significantly better. I wouldn’t rank Sanchez as the top arm on the farm, as I feel Norris has done nothing to lose the title I bestowed upon him in December. Four months from now, however, the story could be very different. Once September rolls around, Sanchez will have roughly 120 innings of data, and Norris will have finally made an extended professional debut. If the scouting reports from August are as glowing as the versions we’re hearing now, it’s very feasible that Sanchez could be Toronto’s new top pitching prospect, something I would have had a very hard time believing only a couple of months ago.

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That trip came last week, when I was able to take in four Lugnuts games from Monday to Thursday, with Nicolino and Sanchez scheduled to pitch on the Thursday night. I had kept last Friday open in the event of a postponed game while I was down there, but both hurlers pitched on Thursday as planned. Here’s what I noted about Nicolino, and I’ll have a separate article coming on Sanchez.

Note: The velocities mentioned below were an average of a nearby scout’s gun and the stadium gun, which was unreliable at times as it consistently read 2-3 mph higher or didn’t give a reading at all. I did bring my gun with me, but for whatever reason I discovered very quickly into the first game on Monday that it didn’t pick up accurate readings from a variety of different seating locations, so I was forced to improvise for the rest of the trip.

Nicolino, like Sanchez, entered last Thursday’s game without having allowed a single run so far this season, but with Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos in attendance, he finished his outing having allowed three earned runs on a season-high six hits with four strikeouts. He didn’t necessarily have his best stuff, but I still walked away quite impressed.

Nicolino’s smooth, repeatable delivery was noticeable, and confirmed the work that he has put in to iron out his mechanics since pitching with Vancouver last year. His fastball was 89-93 mph, touching 94 on the stadium gun once, and he commanded it to both sides of the plate, running it inside to right-handers. He dazzled with his plus changeup at times, ranging from 82-86 but consistently sitting 83-84, both up and down in the zone. His sweeping 75-79 mph curveball worked well against left-handers and he threw it with good wrist action that caused a sharp 2-8 break. He did throw the curve for strikes, but his command could have been better as he missed the zone more often that not with it, especially outside to left-handed hitters.

Getting the start, Nicolino managed to erase a leadoff single in a scoreless first inning with a heads-up pickoff throw 1-3-6 in his third toss over to first base. Outside of a missed swing with his changeup, he stuck primarily with his fastball during the inning.

In a scoreless second, Nicolino mixed up his pitches a lot more, and his polish became much more evident; he faced four hitters in the frame and took little time to color me impressed. The first thing that stood out was the way he handled Bowling Green leadoff hitter Todd Glaesmann, a right-handed hitter. After throwing a 90 mph fastball down the middle for a called first strike, he switched to his curveball, which was ruled high and inside for a ball. Then, instead of throwing a different pitch, Nicolino went right back to his curveball and placed the offering a hair less inside to get the strike call, before inducing a weakly hit grounder that resulted in an infield single.

The second thing that impressed me that inning wasn’t that Nicolino not only got ahead 0-1 on each of the final three batters of the inning, but that he did so using three different pitches. He threw a 91 mph fastball down the middle to Cameron Seitzer, an 84 mph changeup over the plate to Josh Sale, and a 79 mph inside curveball to Joel Caminero, all for strikes. Facing Caminero with two out, Nicolino toggled exclusively between his curveball and changeup to eventually strike him out swinging. Lugnuts No. 2 broadcaster Keaton Gillogly tweeted a few weeks about how Nicolino’s nasty changeup lives up to the hype, and after seeing it in a game situation first-hand, I certainly agree.

The third inning was really the only spot where Nicolino got into a bit of trouble, where two weak runs were scored on him. After he fielded a chopper to the mound but couldn’t get the runner in time on his throw, a first-pitch single and a double steal quickly put runners on second and third with nobody out. A sacrifice fly and a ground out quickly put two outs on the board but two runs as well, before Nicolino struck out left-handed hitter Jeff Malm swinging on an inside fastball to end the frame.

Leading off the top of the fourth, Nicolino struck out Glaesmann on six pitches: 90 mph fastball outside (ball), 83 mph changeup high (swinging strike), 90 mph fastball outside (swinging strike), 92 mph fastball (foul), 91 mph fastball inside (ball) and an 82 mph changeup low (swinging strike three). After getting his next hitter to ground out, it looked as though Nicolino was going to have a routine 1-2-3 inning. But the next batter, Josh Sale, hammered a 1-0 pitch all the way into a parking lot across the street in right field for a solo home run. It came on a fastball, and was the first home run that Nicolino had surrendered in his pro career.

A single and an error from Lugnuts third baseman Andy Burns quickly put runners on first and second, but Nicolino struck out Bowling Green’s Tyler Goeddel swinging to end the threat. After tossing a first-pitch strike with a fastball, Nicolino impressed me once again by going to his curveball in a jam and throwing it for consecutive strikes.

After his latest start on Tuesday, Nicolino now has a 1.33 ERA in 27 innings for the Lugnuts this season. He’s given up 25 hits over that span, including 12 in his last eight innings, but also has 27 strikeouts to just three walks for a 9:1 ratio.

Even not at his best, Lugnuts left-hander Justin Nicolino was impressive. (KEVIN W. FOWLER, Lansing State Journal)

- JM

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Walden limited the Hot Rods to just two hits in his outing, with four strikeouts and two walks. Although he did not give up a run in his five innings, the right-hander didn’t have his best stuff, frequently missing outside to left-handed hitters with his fastball and operating almost exclusively on the right side of the plate all night.

After stranding a runner on third base in the second inning, Walden ran into some trouble in the third. A fielding error from Lugnuts first baseman K.C. Hobson and a walk put runners on first and second with nobody out, but Walden managed to get a fly out on a ground ball that should have resulted in an inning-ending double play. Hobson dove to stop a hard grounder and threw to get the runner at second, but the throw to first wasn’t in time and the inning was kept alive. Covering first on the play, Walden made a nice scoop on the short throw from Lugnuts second baseman Jon Berti to prevent a run from scoring.

Walden then issued an ill-timed walk to standout Rays prospect Drew Vettleson to load the bases, but induced a grounder to end the inning unscathed. He calmed down after that, however, retiring five consecutive Hot Rod hitters en route to two shutout innings.

After scoring two runs in the third inning, the Lugnuts’ offense broke out in the fifth, capitalizing on Bowling Green’s mistakes. After a single, stolen base, passed ball and two walks quickly loaded the bases, a groundout from Berti scored the first run of the inning before leadoff hitter Kenny Wilson scored on another passed ball to put the Lugnuts up 4-0.

Lansing Lugnuts reliever Blake McFarland throws in the eighth inning of the Lugnuts' 7-3 win over Bowling Green on Wednesday.

That brought up Carlos Perez, who has been quite aggressive at the plate recently, swinging at first pitches and getting behind in counts during multiple at-bats. In what should have been an inning-ending flyout, Hot Rods left fielder Josh Sale lost the ball in the sky and it dropped for a double, scoring two more runs for the Lugnuts.

Lansing shortstop Andy Burns continued to impress during this homestand, hitting a long double in the sixth inning off the left field wall that was just short of being his fifth home run of the season. He made some great defensive plays as well, including an impressive running throw on a grounder behind the mound.

The Lugnuts send “Sancholino” — their impressive pitching tandem of southpaw Justin Nicolino and right-hander Aaron Sanchez — to the mound tomorrow, with Nicolino opening the contest at 7:05 p.m.

-JM

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Lansing starter David Rollins breezed through a clean first inning, with back-to-back swinging strikeouts and a first-pitch groundout to open the game. He then erased a one-out double in a scoreless second, where he battled through four foul balls from Whitecaps right fielder Jason Krizan before striking him out on the eighth pitch of the at-bat.

After Rollins retired the leadoff batter in the third, Whitecaps third baseman Colin Kaline skied a 2-2 pitch into the outfield for what should have been the second out of the inning. Instead, Lugnuts right fielder Markus Brisker dropped the ball and Kaline advanced to second on the play, which was ruled a hit and not an error. Then, the next batter, West Michigan center fielder Chad Wright, hit a hard grounder on a 3-1 pitch right to Lugnuts first baseman K.C. Hobson, who bobbled the ball and couldn’t get to the bag in time. Hobson was charged with the error, and instead of returning to the dugout following a 1-2-3 inning, Rollins faced runners on the corners with one out.

Both runners quickly scored after a RBI double and a sacrifice fly, but Rollins ended the inning himself when he cut off the throw to the plate and tagged Whitecaps second baseman Brandon Loy, who was trying to advance to third on the play.

The crippling blow against Rollins, however, came in the fifth, when Whitecaps shortstop Eugenio Suarez roped a two-run double down the left field line to give West Michigan its first lead of the game. That was Rollins’ only real mistake of the game, though, as he pitched better than the four runs (three earned) on his line suggest. The left-hander wound up settling for a no-decision, as reliever Brandon Berl came on in the ninth and allowed a Javier Avendano walk to score to hand Avendano the loss.

The Lugnuts’ offense opened the scoring early and never quit in the losing effort, regaining the lead midway through the game and nearly tying things up in the bottom of the ninth. The top of the lineup paced Lansing’s 12-hit attack, as struggling leadoff hitter Kenny Wilson broke out to go 3-for-5 with a triple and a RBI to improve to 9-for-33 (.273) with an .844 OPS in his last 10 games, while three-hitter Kevin Pillar also went 3-for-5 with a triple, a stolen base and two RBI.

After hitting ninth on Tuesday night and entering play with a .198 average, third baseman Kellen Sweeney found himself hitting in the two-spot for only the second time this season, a possible effort from Lugnuts batting coach and interim manager Kenny Graham to get him back on track. The move paid off, as Sweeney had his most productive game offensively this season, going 2-for-4 with a walk. It was Sweeney’s first multi-hit game of the season, and the way he managed to salvage his night was impressive after grounding out and striking out in his first two at-bats.

After working the count to 3-1 in the fifth, Sweeney hit a bloop single to right field to score Wilson and get his first RBI of the night. Two pitches later, he took off for second base and stole his first bag of the season before coming around to score on Pillar’s triple. Sweeney continued to show his patience at the plate in the seventh, as he drew a two-out walk — his 15th of the year — to prolong the inning.

The 20-year-old got on base with two outs again in the bottom of the ninth, when he singled home Wilson to cut the Whitecaps’ lead to 7-6. He also showed some heads-up, aggressive baserunning, advancing safely from first to third on a hard hit liner to right field. Sweeney has shown great all-around defense at the hot corner so far this season and has showcased his great eye at the plate but has yet to show anything offensively, so hopefully Wednesday night was a step in the right direction for him.

- JM

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