Dec 6, 2011; Dallas, TX, USA; Toronto Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos answers questions during the MLB winter meetings at Hilton Anatole. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-US PRESSWIRE

In years past, we’ve been forced to sit and watch as top-end draft picks decided to walk away from the Jays instead of signing with the club. Whether it was Tyler Beede last year (21st overall), Logan Ehlers (8th rd) and Tyler Shreeve (10th rd) in 2010, or James Paxton (37th overall) – Jake Eliopoulos (2nd rd) – Jake Barrett (3rd rd) in 2009, the Jays have has a really hard time getting all of their top 10 rd picks to sign.

Well, they didn’t have the same problem this year!

There are 2 considerations that make this year’s crop of signings particularly impressive. Not only did the Jays have more stringent rules and regulations to abide by under the new CBA, but they also drafted extremely aggressively. Many of their picks were “hard signs” and executives and experts all over believed that the Jays would be hard pressed to get the majority of their top picks to sign. Kudos to Alex Anthopoulos, Andrew Tinnish, and his team, because they got their entire top 10 round picks (14 of them in all) to sign, and did so without surrendering a draft pick in next year’s draft! (more…)

A player’s name will be clickable if we have published an article on them, and click the approximate date that the player signed to go to the source article for the information. There is also a column for player bonuses, but while various outlets will report specific figures, some of them should be taken with a grain of salt, considering I’ve had players mention to me in the past that the reported bonuses aren’t always correct.

(apu.edu)

Listed at 6’4″ and 235 pounds in his college bio, first baseman Jordan Leyland saw his power numbers explode after transferring to Azusa Pacific University following three seasons at UC Irvine. In addition to belting a team-high 22 home runs to go along with 19 doubles, the California native hit .419 with a team-best 1.311 OPS in 59 games.

With decent speed for his size, Leyland went 8-for-10 in stolen base attempts and can reportedly handle a corner outfield role if he was to be moved off of first base. His brother Joshua was a 16th round pick by the Oakland Athletics in 2009.

With a recommended slot amount of $126,400, the Blue Jays have likely banked around $125,000 by signing Leyland as a ninth round pick. In an interview published today on FutureJays.com, Leyland said he spoke to the Blue Jays yesterday and is ready to begin his career by leaving for Vancouver at the end of the week.

Alex Azor, CF (10th round, 325th overall) — United States Naval Academy (Maryland)

(navysports.com)

With his selection in the 10th round, outfielder Alex Azor became the highest draft pick in Naval Academy history. In addition to reaching base in 27 consecutive games and being named to the All-Patriot League first team, Azor batted a team-high .322. Having already signed for $1,000 and well below the recommended slot of $125,000, Azor will likely play for one of the Blue Jays’ short season affiliates.

After that, though, he’ll report back to the Navy and be placed on the restricted list, because he cannot play while he is actively serving, according to MLB.com. In the same article, Azor had good things to say about the Blue Jays.

“They asked me if I would like to be a part of the organization,” he said. “They have been so patient with me and understand my situation. My heart goes out to them.”

Grant Heyman, OF (11th round, 355th overall) — Pittsford Sutherland HS (New York)

(democratandchronicle.com)

A three-sport varsity athlete in baseball, football and basketball, high school outfielder Grant Heyman hit .424 with five triples, three home runs and 17 RBI in his senior year at Pittsford Sutherland. A 6-foot-4 left-handed hitter, Heyman was courted by representatives from the Marlins, Red Sox and Diamondbacks prior to the Blue Jays selecting him with their 11th round pick. In an interview with the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle, Heyman said the the Blue Jays came calling quickly with a pro contract shortly after he was drafted.

“The Blue Jays are coming tonight with gear and a contract,” the 18-year-old said on Tuesday. “The Blue Jays want me to sign real soon, get things going. I haven’t talked to my father, it’s a decision our family will have to make, but right now it’s a very high possibility.”

Heyman was ranked as the best athlete in the state of New York and considered a prospect on the rise by Perfect Game. “Suddenly, teams rushed in to get a better handle on Heyman’s talent, and while most thought there was a significant gap between his athleticism and his developed baseball skills, enough teams expressed enough interest for him to warrant being a surprise draft, possibly as early as the third to fifth rounds,” Perfect Game wrote in their New York state preview.

Ryan Kellogg, LHP (12th round, 385th overall) — Henry Street HS (Ontario, Canada)

(durhamregion.com)

Touted as the top Canadian in the draft, left-hander Ryan Kellogg and the Toronto Blue Jays seemed to be a natural fit. However, with a strong commitment to Arizona State University, Kellogg isn’t considered the easiest of signs.

With a changeup for an out pitch and a fastball that ranges consistently between 87 and 91 mph, Kellogg was projected to go somewhere in the first six rounds. In an interview with Sportsnet’s Jeff Blair, Kellogg said that he expected to fall as far down as the 20th round, given the concerns surrounding his signability, and just fulfill his commitment to ASU. A product of Canada’s junior national program, it will be interesting to see if the 6-foot-5, 215-pound southpaw will seriously entertain the Blue Jays’ offer.

From a Perfect Game article: “In one noteworthy outing in March, Kellogg blanked the Toronto Blue Jays for two innings, retiring the likes of Jose Bautista, Brett Lawrie, J.P. Arencibia and Adam Lind without giving up a hit. … He has an excellent feel for pitching, and few scouts question his competitive approach with the way he has stepped up this spring against pro-level competition.”

John Silviano, C (13th round, 415th overall) — Summit Christian School (Florida)

A 5-foot-11, 190-pound catcher from Hypoluxo, Fla., John Silviano has reportedly told the Palm Beach Post that he will sign with the Blue Jays and not follow through on his commitment to North Florida.

“I had a few teams on me, but the Blue Jays were calling me a lot,” said Silviano.

The son of a former MLB pro scout, Silviano, a left-handed hitter, is more of a defensive catcher, having shown great catch and throw ability with regular pop times of less than two seconds, according to Team One Baseball.

Zakery Wasilewski, LHP (14th round, 445th overall) — Tazewell HS (West Virginia)

It looks like South Carolina commit Zak Wasilewski, who turns 19 next week, will sign a contract with the Blue Jays. In an interview with the Bluefield Daily Telegraph, Wasilewski’s mother told the paper that her son will not play college baseball and start his pro career instead.

After suffering an ACL injury and undergoing Tommy John surgery in his throwing elbow, Wasilewski became one of the top high school left-handers in his region with a strong senior year that included a no-hitter against the defending Class AAA state champions. Should Wasilewski report to a short season affiliate right away, there’s a chance he could pitch for the Bluefield Blue Jays, a team located just 30 minutes east of where he grew up.

Ryan Borucki, LHP (15th round, 475th overall) — Mundelein HS (Illinois)

(Mundelein Review)

A 6-foot-4, projectable left-hander that already reaches 92 mph on his fastball, Ryan Borucki struck out 30 of the 68 batters he faced but pitched just 17 2/3 innings this season. After throwing a no-hitter for his Mundelein high school club in late March, Borucki was sidelined with an elbow injury that he was told by doctors would require Tommy John surgery. After the injury news, Borucki said he was 99 percent sure that he was going to decline an offer from a MLB club if he was drafted, and cash in his scholarship to the University of Iowa instead.

In addition to that, Borucki’s signability might also be an issue when it comes to talking the financial aspect of his contract.

“It all started earlier in the day when several teams contacted me and asked me if I was willing to go down in price as far as the amount I was looking for from a signing bonus, but I wouldn’t,” he said in an interview with the Mundelein Review. “The Blue Jays, New York Mets and Miami Marlins all contacted me (Tuesday morning) trying to get me to come down (on my price).”

That’s exactly what everyone thought the Blue Jays were doing when they selected the most college seniors on Day 2 than any other MLB club, but no one could have predicted that the pre-draft agreements between the teams and players would have been for merely four figures, and so far below their recommended slot amounts.

According to Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, Georgia Southern third baseman Eric Phillips, the Jays’ sixth round pick, has signed for $5,000, or $168,200 below slot. In the article, Phillips said that “a lot of the seniors are only going to get $1,000″ and that he “was happy to get above that”.

So when Tucker Donahue, the Blue Jays’ fourth round pick, said in an interview with Baseball America that he had already signed a “four-figure bonus” with the Blue Jays, it’s safe to assume that it was around $1,000, meaning that he has saved his new club somewhere in the neighborhood of a whopping $307,700 in bonus pool funds to use on other picks.

10th rounder Alex Azor, selected out of the United States Naval Academy, has already signed for $1,000 as well, according to MLB.com’s Chris Toman via Gregor Chisholm’s North of the Border blog. Chisholm added on Twitter that guys like Azor “likely never would have been drafted under the old system”, and with a recommended slot amount of $125,000 for their 10th round selection, the Blue Jays will be able to apply nearly that entire sum to other players. Toman also added, via Twitter, a great quote from Azor about his signability:

#BlueJays 10th rounder, Alex Azor, who signed for $1,000: “I told them I will sign for a hot dog.”

— Chris Toman (@Chris_Toman) June 7, 2012

At 6’4″ and 185 pounds, projectable right-hander Chase DeJong is the kind of pitcher the Blue Jays love to draft. Ranked 58th by ESPN’s Keith Law, 78th by MLB.com and 86th by Baseball America on pre-draft top 100 lists, DeJong features an 88-92 mph fastball, a good curve with plus potential and a very good feel for a changeup, according to MLB.com. The young right-hander compiled a 1.80 ERA and 240 strikeouts in 199 innings over three high school seasons, capped off with his senior year that saw him allow just 35 hits in 76 2/3 innings.

DeJong already has a lucrative scholarship to USC, but in a recent article on BlueJays.com, he feels he’s “95 percent sure” that he’s going to sign.

“It’s a huge weight off my shoulders,” said DeJong in a post-draft interview with Gazettes.com. “I’m so excited. [The Blue Jays] did their homework on me, and if feels good to be wanted and selected by a team that really likes me.”

Anthony Alford, CF (3rd round, 112th overall) — Petal HS (Mississippi)

Ranked 36th by Baseball America, 47th by ESPN, 56th by MLB.com on pre-draft lists, 17-year-old center fielder Anthony Alford has the skill set of a first round pick. A two-sport star with a strong commitment to Southern Mississippi to be their quarterback, Alford reportedly told MLB clubs not to waste their time drafting him because he was going to play football. With signability being such a concern in this year’s draft given the new Collective Bargaining Aggreement, it’s no surprise that Alford was passed on and did not go in the first round. It is, however, quite a surprise that the Blue Jays aggressively took Alford with the 112th overall pick, a selection that has a recommended slot amount of just $424,400 — less than half the amount of a compensation-round pick. Andrew Stoeten over at Drunk Jays Fans did a great job yesterday amalgamating a lot of the formalities concerning Alford, so make sure to check that out.

Skill-wise, Alford has the potential to be a 30/30 player in the majors given his combination of power and speed. He has tremendous strength and hits to all fields, and although he played center field for high school team, he could translate into a prototypical right fielder if he decides to play professional baseball.

“He is very advanced right now, very coachable, and can hit to all fields,” said Alford’s high-school coach Larry Watkins in an article on BlueJays.com. “He has alley-to-alley power and he can run. He’s a triples guy who will steal bases. A very explosive runner. Very aggressive running the bases. Very instinctive, and reacts very well to what is going on on the field. He plays the game hard and he’s very talented and a great kid. Add those three together and you got something special right there.”

According to his player profile and scouting report at Perfect Game, Alford hits from an open stance with a short, aggressive swing that generates plus raw bat speed, and the article also added an interesting nugget from mid-May about his signability:

“Perfect Game was told this week by a cross checker from a National League team that Alford is ‘back on the market’ amidst talk that the person who issued the ‘no interest in professional baseball at this time’ statement wasn’t authorized to do so and that Alford is now telling scouts he is open to discussions.”

Tucker Donahue, RHP (4th round, 145th overall) — Stetson University (Florida)

Outside of nine starts in his junior year, Tucker Donahue, a 6-foot-1, 195-pound pitcher, came out of the bullpen in his entire playing career with Stetson University. The right-hander went 2-1 with a 5.20 ERA in 28 relief appearances this season for the Hatters, with 27 strikeouts and 19 walks in 27 2/3 innings.The 22-year-old college senior from Coral Springs, Fla. has a fastball that has been clocked up to 97 mph.

Donahue, who lists himself as a pitcher for the Toronto Blue Jays in his Twitter bio, is surely an easy sign by the Blue Jays, one that will likely be for below the recommended slot amount of $308,700 in an effort to save cash to sign other, higher-profile picks like Alford and 50th overall selection Matt Smoral.

Brad Delatte, LHP (5th round, 175th overall) — Nicholls State University (Louisiana)

A 6-foot, 175-pound relief pitcher out of Baton Rouge, La., Brad Delatte is another pick that the Blue Jays will look to save some slot money on to apply to other selections. With a recommended slot amount of $231,100 and as another college senior, the Jays should certainly be able to do that.

In 31 appearances (all in relief) for the Nicholls State University Colonels this season, Delatte went 0-2 with a 2.86 ERA in 34 2/3 innings. He allowed 24 hits, issued 18 walks and racked up 35 strikeouts while limiting opposing hitters to a .198 average, second best among Colonel relievers. The 22-year-old also had a stint with the Thunder Bay Border Cats of the Northwoods League in 2010, where he went 1-1 with a 2.43 ERA, 30 strikeouts and 28 walks  in 40 2/3 innings.

Eric Phillips, 3B (6th round, 205th overall) — Georgia Southern (Georgia)

(georgiasoutherneagles.com)

Right-handed hitter Eric Phillips, a standout with Georgia Southern University, seems like a more honest/appropriate pick by the Blue Jays in this spot, which has a recommended slot amount of $173,200. This past season, the third baseman appeared in a team-high 60 games, hitting .391 (best among starters) with a .459 on-base percentage and .563 slugging percentage.

His 93 hits, which included 24 doubles and five home runs, were easily a team-high, and he set a new school record for career hits. On top of drawing 25 walks, Phillips went 29-for-33 (88%) in stolen base attempts. He played on the same team as Victor Roache, the 30th overall pick this year by the Milwaukee Brewers. In an interview with times-georgian.com, Phillips had a couple of interesting things to say.

““I had about five or six teams ready to take me in the sixth or seventh round and [the Blue Jays] were the first one to me. … They were very excited. They think I’m a valuable ballplayer.”

Ian Parmley, OF (7th round, 235th overall) — Liberty University (Virginia)

After being named a JUCO All-American Pacific Division outfielder at Monroe Community College, Ian Parmley transferred to Liberty University in Virginia, where he hit .312 in 60 games with 10 doubles and a .405 on-base percentage, according to his college bio. After also pitching at Monroe, Parmley was exclusively a position player with the Liberty Flames.

With a .368 slugging percentage against non-elite competition that was second-worst among Liberty regulars this past season, Parmley doesn’t fit the mold of a seventh round pick, which implies that the Blue Jays are looking to sign him for below the $145,000 recommended slot amount for this selection.

Harrison Frawley, C (8th round, 265th overall) — Coastal Carolina University (South Carolina)

(goccusports.com)

A senior at Coastal Carolina University, 6-foot catcher Harrison Frawley hit .296 in 60 games with eight doubles, 33 walks, and a .411 on-base percentage. He caught 503 of CCU’s 560 innings (90%), and reached base in 52 of his 60 games. A defensively-gifted catcher, Frawley threw out 49 percent of basestealers (25-of-51) this season while adding seven pickoffs, according to his college bio. The recommended slot amount for this pick is $135,400.

From a post-draft article on CCU’s website:

“Frawley had an impressive senior year, both on and off the field. He was named first team All-Big South and was one of 12 semifinalists for the Johnny Bench Award, which annually goes to the nation’s top catcher. Off the field, Frawley was a first team Capital One/CoSIDA Academic All-America and 2012 Big South Baseball Scholar-Athlete of the Year. He graduated summa cum laude with a 3.94 GPA in physics.”

While nobody outside of the front office knows the exact type of demands these players have, from my perspective, the Blue Jays appeared to work right around slot on night one. Toronto’s budget allowed for them to spend a smidge over 6.5 million on their five selections. D.J. Davis, the first pick at 17th overall, seems like an under slot guy to me. Most draft outlets had him ranked as around the 30th best talent, with some mocks linking Davis to Toronto’s 22nd overall pick. I can’t imagine it will take the full 2 million to sign Davis –- somewhere between 1.5 and 1.8 seems more reasonable -– so the Blue Jays have a bit of extra money floating around for later picks. Marcus Stroman, the 22nd overall pick, seems more like a straight slot guy. He was rated much higher than he was drafted, but as a college reliever, his options are limited. It’s doubtful he would walk away from 1.8 million, as if he returned to college to get drafted as a four year senior, he would be lucky to be taken in the first round at all, and his leverage would evaporate.

Things get a little trickier in the supplemental first round. The Blue Jays made three selections, two of which seem like they could be expensive. Toronto took Matt Smoral 50th overall, and he might be difficult to squeeze into the budget. Smoral is an elite talent, and was consistently ranked in the first round prior to suffering a broken foot in April. Slot at 50th overall is only 1 million, and the Blue Jays will need to cowboy up a lot more than that if they hope to see Smoral pass on his strong UNC commitment. The front office obviously recognized that, as they appeared to be looking under slot at 58th overall. The team drafted Mitch Nay, a third baseman from an Arizona high school, who most outlets had a 2nd or 3rd round grade on -– Baseball America ranked him as the 101st best talent. The Blue Jays closed out the supplemental first round, selecting another high school pitcher in Tyler Gonzales. Like Smoral, Gonzales appears to be an over slot pick, as Baseball America ranked him as the 45th best talent.

In hindsight, no one should be surprised by the Blue Jays strategy last night, as it follows a well established trend that has been in place since Alex Anthopoulos took over. Take a safe pitcher in the first round (Stroman), target high upside pitchers in the supplemental round (Smoral, Gonzales). As I mentioned earlier, the Blue Jays appear to have spent right around their allotted 6.5 million for those five selections, which allows the team to work on day two without short-handing themselves. With that in mind, here are a few players I feel would be good day two targets (in no particular order):

RHP Duane Underwood, Pope HS (Georgia), Baseball America #104

I was pushing the Underwood pick a lot in the Jays Journal draft chat last night, and I will continue to do so until he finds his home this afternoon. Underwood is an athletic right handed pitcher -– something the Blue Jays appear to love -– who features a power fastball that can touch 98 mph and an impressive changeup. The detractors are his erratic command and velocity -– at times he dips into the 80’s -– as well as his curveball. The curve is really soft and inconsistent, and has a long way to go to become an out pitch. Underwood is still young at 17, but is committed to Georgia.

RHP Walker Buehler, Clay HS (Kentucky), Baseball America #50

Buehler is one of the better talents remaining, and could be snatched up before the Blue Jays even have a chance to pick in the second round. The right hander has a ton of projection on his 6-foot-2, 160 pound frame, and some people see the potential for three plus pitches in his fastball, curveball, and changeup. Adding muscle will be important, as Buehler has shown a tendency to wear down from even a high school workload, and professional ball is a step above. He has a commitment to Vanderbilt, and simply may not be signable in the third round and beyond. Buehler?

RHP R.J. Alvarez, Junior, Florida Atlantic, Baseball America #78

With all these high upside prep selections, the Blue Jays will eventually need to take some safe (cheap) college picks, and Alvarez fits that bill. He bounced between starting and relieving in college, but the bullpen appears to be his long term home. Alvarez is a power pitcher, as his fastball sits 92-97 mph. He keeps hitters off balance with a hard, late biting slider that he throws in the low to mid 80’s. His experience in the rotation helps him in relief, as Alvarez has shown the capability to pitch multiple innings without losing much in terms of stuff – similar to current Blue Jay Luis Perez.

C Wyatt Mathisen, Calallen HS (Texas), Baseball America #47

The Blue Jays have drafted and signed a total of two catchers since Alex Anthopolous took over, and they were 25th and 34th round picks. It may be time to buck that trend, as Mathisen is one of the best high school catchers in the draft. He’s a four tool catcher, and the fifth tool -– his speed –- really isn’t that bad. While the offensive upside is nice, Mathisen’s real value to teams might come from his ability to handle a pitching staff. He’s still new to catching, but he shows a lot of leadership with his pitchers, much like Toronto’s current starting catcher J.P. Arencibia. The Blue Jays have so much young pitching in the minors that a catcher like Mathisen to guide them along almost makes too much sense.

LHP Hunter Virant, Camarillo HS (California), Baseball America #53

Like Smoral and Gonzales in the supplemental round, Virant could be a bit expensive, so the Blue Jays will have to make room in their budget should they select the left hander. He’s very projectible, and his athleticism creates a very smooth delivery. Virant’s best pitches are his fastball and changeup, and both could be at least above average. He also features a slider and curveball, but neither projects as more than average at this point. Virant will need to make improvements to his breaking stuff is he wants to succeed on the next level, whether it be college (where he is committed to UCLA) or professional ball.

Other players to look for:

3B Trey Williams, Valencia HS (California)
1B Adam Walker, Junior, Jacksonville
RHP Jake Barrett, Junior, Arizona State
LHP Alex Wood, Junior, Georgia

Who will the Blue Jays select with their two first round picks tonight?

The text in quotes below the player name comes directly from the source article, and click on the player’s name (if applicable) to go to our extensive scouting report feature on them.

Baseball America:

No. 17: Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard-Westlake HS (California)

“After resisting the urge to simply guess and put Giolito somewhere in our first three projections, we’ll put him here. Toronto has five of the first 60 selections, so if the Giolito negotiations don’t work out, it can just collect the No. 18 pick in 2013 as compensation and still get plenty of talent this year. The Blue Jays’ financial muscle in this draft also could lead them to McCullers or Seager. They’re hot for high-ceiling athletes such as Mississippi high school outfielder D.J. Davis, who might not make it to their next choice at No. 22.”

No. 22: Joey Gallo, IF, Bishop Gorman HS (Nevada)

“Toronto has interest in Cecchini and Davis if available. If not, Gallo’s tantalizing power could play very nicely at Rogers Centre.”

In Keith Law’s chat today, he opined that Gallo should have enough contact ability to unleash his power:

Alex (Nevada):
Do you think Gallo can stick as a hitter or is he destined for the mound?

Law:
I think he’ll hit enough to get to the crazy power.

ESPN:

No. 17: Gavin Cecchini, SS, Barbe H.S. (Louisiana)

“I had them with Giolito last time and still think they’d take him. They’re also on Dahl and Stryker Trahan, and they would consider a college starter who fell, shifting to higher-upside prep kids with the next pick. They’re among the few teams still in on Smoral in the first round.”

No. 22: D.J. Davis, OF, Stone County H.S. (Mississippi)

“Everyone says the Blue Jays intend to continue to draft for upside wherever possible, figuring that average players won’t get it done in the AL East. I’ve heard that Brian Johnson has been discussed if they wanted one college guy in the bank before resuming their relentless quest for ceiling.”

Baseball Prospectus:

No. 17: Lance McClullers, RHP, Jesuit H.S. (Florida)

“Most believe that the Blue Jays will continue to be both creative and aggressive in the draft. Giolito makes sense here, but that might require some maneuvering that is difficult to figure out. McCullers has one of the best pure arms in the draft, and is not considered the easiest of signings.”

No. 22: Clint Coulter, C, Union HS (Washington)

“There are a number of dynamics in play with this pick. The second of Toronto’s two in this round, the Blue Jays could go with a conservative quick sign here both to save money, and because there is no compensation for not signing the player selected here. It won’t be a crazy reach, and Coulter is one of many players mentioned here as moving a few slots above where their talent might suggest.”

Seedlings to Stars:

No. 17: Lance McClullers, RHP, Jesuit H.S. (Florida)

“At least in this mock, the Blue Jays get their man. The Jays have always been a pure upside team, and from a pure upside standpoint it is hard to beat McCullers and his triple-digit fastball. If he is on the board at the 17th overall, pending some crazy circumstances, he will be the Jays’ pick.”

No. 22: Courtney Hawkins, OF, Carroll HS (Texas)

“After getting McCullers with their first pick the Blue Jays will look for upside again here. A player that sticks out is Carroll High School outfielder Courtney Hawkins. Hawkins needs a lot of work but has the ability to be a big-time home run hitters. He’s a project the Jays would love to take on.”

- JM

The players on our list are not who are considered to be the “best” players in the draft, but rather who could realistically be around when the Jays take the podium and who we would like to see the Blue Jays go after, with an emphasis on the latter.

Previous articles in the series:

No. 2 – Max Fried
No. 3 – Lance McCullers
No. 4 – Zach Eflin
No. 5 – Corey Seager
No. 6 – Courtney Hawkins
No. 7 – Chris Stratton
No. 8 – Richie Shaffer
No. 9 – Nick Travieso
No. 10 – Lucas Sims
No. 11 – Andrew Heaney
No. 12 – Joey Gallo
2012 MLB Draft Preview

No. 1: Lucas Giolito

 RHP | 17 years old / 6’6” 230 lbs

Harvard Westlake pitcher Lucas Giolito (Eric Dearborn photography)

Born: July 14, 1994

Bats/Throws: Right/Right

High School: Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, California)

College Commitment: UCLA

Baseball America Rank: 9 (5th among pitchers)

ESPN/Keith Law Rank: 8 (4th among pitchers)

Quick Facts:

• Has garnered comparisons to Roy Halladay
• 2012 Rawlings 1st team All American
• Father is the former Vice President of video game giant EA and co-founder of Trilogy Studios

Video:

From the 2011 Perfect Game All American Classic (via MLB Prospect Portal):

Giolito pitching at the Urban Youth Academy in February, 2012 (via Bullpen Banter):

Scouting Report:

Prior to suffering a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow in March of this year, Lucas Giolito was quite possibly the best pitching prospect in the draft. He’s only 17 years old –- and won’t turn 18 until after the July signing deadline –- but he looks like a man in his early to mid 20’s. Giolito stands an imposing 6-foot-6, and with 230 pounds of lean muscle on his broad frame, drawing comparisons to this generation’s most dominant pitcher, Roy Halladay. The comparisons aren’t founded solely on the body type, though. Giolito’s work ethic is tenacious, as he’s always looking for ways to improve himself, both in between innings and starts. Trevor Bauer, the third overall pick in the 2011 draft, has made the long-toss program famous over the last two years. As the name implies, the program is based around focusing on long tossing in between outings in an effort to build and maintain a strong, healthy throwing arm. According to Baseball America, one scout has described Bauer’s long-toss regimen as “kid stuff” compared to Giolito’s throwing program.

The arm strength is understandably fantastic, which allows Giolito to generate tremendous amounts of arm speed in his delivery. It’s been said scouts are in love with how easy his delivery is, and after watching the video, it’s easy to agree. He has a simple, repeatable delivery with a smooth arm action from a high three-quarter arm slot. It’s even been said his mechanics are too easy, and that he may need to increase the tempo to prevent base runners from taking advantage of him. Many high school pitchers are based around projection and added strength, but with a horse like Giolito, all he needs to do is keep in shape and maintain his athleticism.

With his pitch arsenal, Giolito has legitimate No. 1 starter potential. His fastball is the attention grabber, as it sits in the 94-96 mph range with frequent visits to the high 90’s. He has been clocked as high as 100 mph, which is almost mind-boggling for a 17 year old, though it speaks to how far strength and conditioning programs have come over the last five to ten years. The pitch isn’t based solely on velocity, as it has explosive life as it hits the zone. His height and delivery allow for easy downward movement, making the fastball difficult to create loft against. It could be argued it’s there already, but the pitch has 70 potential.

Giolito’s curveball has similar potential; the biggest difference is his lack of present consistency. He throws the pitch in the 80-82 mph range, with tight spin and break so sharp it regularly buckles the knees of his opposition. In addition to the “traditional” curveball, Giolito has been working on developing what he calls a “wipeout” curveball. The secondary curve is significantly harder, with pitch velocity an almost unfathomable 84-87 mph. The curveball is his primary swing-and-miss pitch, and according to Perfect Game, most scouts agree his curve could actually be better than his fastball when he has fully developed.

Not that he has needed it to this point, but Giolito also throws a straight changeup. In terms of both present and future grades, it’s well behind both his fastball and curve(s), with potential grades ranging from average to plus. He maintains arm speed well, which is significant as most high school pitchers can’t help but slow their arms down when throwing lower velocity pitches. Giolito’s changeup sits in the 82-84 mph range, which is a solid 12 mph of separation from his fastball.

Giolito has shown no issues with finding the strike zone, but precisely locating his pitches is something he still needs work on. He pounds his fastball in the lower half, but he’s still learning to punch the corners with consistency. He’s mostly a control pitcher now, but should develop at least above average command, if not better. Given that he’s only 17 years old, there’s plenty of time to clean up the details.

Why the Blue Jays could be interested:

Prior to injuring his elbow earlier this spring, Giolito was in contention for the first overall spot in the draft. What makes that even more impressive is that, in the history of the draft, no high school right handed pitcher has ever been selected in that spot. While the strength at the top of the draft is below average this year, that still would have been a huge honor.

It has been widely suggested that because of the injury, Giolito could fall or go undrafted altogether, as with the new structure of the CBA, most teams simply cannot afford to take him; most, but not all. The Blue Jays are one of the few teams outside the top six or seven who could select Giolito without completely crippling the rest of their draft. As I mentioned in the draft preview, the Blue Jays have nearly $8.9 million to spend in the first 10 rounds, so while dropping $4 million-plus on one player would hurt, they could still acquire decent talent with some other picks. Another thing to consider is the 5% taxed threshold over their budget with which a team can spend without losing future picks. For the Blue Jays, that means an extra 441 thousand “invisible” dollars in their budget.

Financially, the Blue Jays can make it work. The real question is how badly Giolito wants to go pro at this point. He comes from a very wealthy family, so while no one would laugh at four or five million dollars, Giolito has the advantage of not desperately needing it and can base his decision on other factors. UCLA is a well respected baseball program (they produced two of the top three picks in the 2011 draft), so it’s possible he sees college as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity that’s too good to pass up. On the other hand, Toronto has shown a lot of ability with developing pitchers, and by taking the professional route it’s likely he’d be in the Major Leagues before 2015, when he’d be draft eligible next. Once Houston has decided on the first overall pick, Lucas Giolito will be the name to watch. Here’s hoping he finds his way north of the border.

The pre-draft coverage here at Jays Journal is now complete, but as we mentioned earlier, we’re going to have a live chat during the first round of the draft, so make sure you stick around to talk about what could be a shocking and exciting evening. For all Jays Journal updates and constant Blue Jays content in less than 140 characters, follow Jared (@Jared_Macdonald) and I (@KyleMatte) on the Twitter.