Bucking the somewhat depressing trend of the big league pitchers and injuries, the minor league system has seen some key hurlers return over the last ten days.  I know I mentioned Sean Nolin in last week’s edition, but two pieces of news merit attention.  First, after only going three and a third innings in his first start back, the shackles were released for his second outing.  On Sunday the 6’4″ left-hander was dominant over six innings against the Yankees double-A affiliate.  Nolin only gave up six base-runners while striking out eight of the twenty-four hitters faced.  I was going to say something flippant, like ‘if Sean has a couple of more starts like that, the Jays may have to seriously consider calling him up as the starters on the big club drop like flies’. As per Shi Davidi though, turns out a statement like that wouldn’t be flippant at all:

AA says Ramon Ortiz/Chad Jenkins basically start to start. Sounds like prospect Sean Nolin will be next starter called up if need arises.

— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) May 14, 2013

On one hand, I hope the situation in Toronto doesn’t necessitate a Nolin call-up, but on the other, I’d love to see how he would fare against big league hitting.

With more good news, as posted by Jay Blue in his daily wrap up, two more injured chuckers made their returns last night.  John Stilson was impressive, to say the least, striking out four of the five hitters faced in his return to New Hampshire.  As per Marc Hulet’s off-season write up, John was a potential first round pick that fell to the Jays in the third due to injury concerns.  If you’re going to take a flyer, you have to expect a few blips.  After throwing just over 104 innings last season, starting twenty-two of his thirty appearances, Stilson, and the Jays, may have to settle for a bullpen role going forward to protect his delicate right shoulder.

Sep 6, 2011; Toronto, ON, Canada; Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Dustin McGowan (29) delivers a pitch against the Boston Red Sox at the Rogers Centre. The Red Sox beat the Blue Jays 14-0. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

Another former starter who would, after countless injuries, take any role on offer is Dustin McGowan.  After his eight hundred and eleventh rehab stint, Dustin made his return with Dunedin last night.  Like Stilson, he was lights out, striking out three of the four hitters he faced over a scoreless inning.

Like many Jays fans (especially since he signed that ridiculous guaranteed contract) I have had my heart broken by Dustin’s perpetual inability to stay healthy.  Because of this, I’m not going to fall for this year’s incarnation of positivity being spun due to his taking up Steve Delabar‘s weighted ball throwing program.  Although the Jays bullpen, Santos aside, has not been afflicted with injuries at the same rate as the starting rotation, it has been plagued with inconsistencies that McGowan could no doubt help.  I just can’t bring myself to believe we’ll see him with the big club any time soon.  I would love to be wrong on this one though.

In keeping with the injury theme, in the Shi Davidi (Shi must be getting sick of this, all he does is write injury updates these days) article I linked above, it mentions the Melk Man Melky Cabrera is going to have a MRI on his tight hamstring which may lead to a stint on the disable list.  If this were to happen, an outfielder may need to be called up.  As usual, this means Anthony Gose‘s name will be bandied about.

It shouldn’t be.  In twenty-five at bats last week, Gose has struck out nine times for a 36% K rate.  Although he’s walking more, upping his on base percentage to .338, I don’t think he is ready to face mlb pitching at the moment.  If Cabrera’s injury is short term, as everyone hopes, Moises Sierra or even Kevin Pillar would be more suitable replacements.

Both are having very good seasons and maybe aren’t considered elite prospects like Gose.  For this reason, taking them away from their every day at bats to a more limited short term role with Toronto would be considered more palatable.  That being said, unless Anthony starts showing us something, he may not be considered elite for much longer.

One final note, and I can’t believe this is the first time I’m mentioning his name in this forum, but Josh Thole had another productive week in Buffalo, with six hits in five games.  Maybe I’m missing something here, but a guy that is putting up a .347/.426/.537 slash line in triple A while the two catchers in the bigs struggle to get on base, shouldn’t really be in the minor leagues.

I ranted a bit last season about having Omar Vizquel waste space on the big league roster.  Henry Blanco is this year’s Vizquel.  I have zero idea what up-side Blanco provides to the team but it sure as hell isn’t offensive ability.  In thirty plate appearances Henry has a .339 OPS.  Thole has a higher on base percentage!  I know he is in a different league, but surely Thole’s ability to take a walk, not strike out much, he has a 1 to 1 K/BB ratio, and lack of any glaring splits, makes him a worthwhile addition to a team currently sitting in last place in their division, six and a half games back of a playoff position with a mere seven teams to leap frog.

The Jays need all the help they can get.  The return of the three pitchers mentioned above may provide value at some point this season but they really can’t be counted on for short term solutions.  Promoting Josh Thole would see an immediate upgrade to the bench.  I really can’t see why he’s not gone north already.

Negatives:

Anthony Gose – After giving him some props two weeks ago, Gose has had a rough ten days.  For a player with his tools to put up a .311 OBP is not good enough, nor will it get him promoted anytime soon.  I’m also perplexed by his lack of stolen bases this year.  Yes, he spectacularly executed a straight steal of home Tuesday night, but that is his one and only steal in the past ten games.  On the season he is four for eight in stolen base attempts.  Odd.  Surely the Jays aren’t holding him back in any way.  Finally, with his speed, and apparent gap power, four doubles seems awfully low.  I’m not saying he should be consistently bouncing balls off the wall, but with his explosiveness, line drives, ground balls, etc that have outfielders moving a few steps to either side should see him taking second.

Lansing Lugnuts – I know, I know.  I shouldn’t be worried about the records of minor league teams.  But when you saw the talent the Lugs had at their disposal, there was no way to predict that after twenty-eight games they would be 9 and 19, good for dead last in the Eastern Division of the Midwest League.  This is the second year in the row we here at Jays Journal have swooned over prospect laden teams, only for those teams to struggle in their respective leagues.  Good young prospects don’t always make for good teams I suppose.

Roberto Osuna – There is nothing negative about how he has thrown this year.  Despite two rougher starts in the last five his season stats are lights out.  With an unbelievable 7.75 K/BB ratio and 0.85 WHIP, the kid can flat out miss bats.  Unfortunately though, he is currently on the DL for a month as per this article from Shi Davidi after complaining of elbow soreness following the second of the aforementioned rough starts.  It may not be as bad as first feared however, per the tweet below.  Osuna is only eighteen, Tommy John wouldn’t suit him, hopefully the injury is only mild and he can get back to throwing sooner rather than later.

I have heard from the Jays that Osuna is not as bad as I was told this afternoon. I will try and get more info in the next day or two

— Gerry McDonald (@mcdogerry) May 6, 2013

Positives:

Marcus Knecht – after an absolutely brutal start which must have had the Blue Jays brass questioning their commitment to the Toronto native, Knecht has shown some signs of life lately.  Over his last ten games he has put up a .787 OPS, over 140 points better than his season average.  Overall, his numbers across the board are still down on last year.  A major disappointment considering this is his repeat year in Dunedin.  And despite the recent hot(ish) streak there are still worrisome signs.  His three walks versus eleven strike-outs equates to a .273 BB/K ratio, only slightly up on the season’s .226.  His inability to get on base will ultimately decide his fate, but for now, let’s just celebrate the recent success and hope it continues.

Christian Lopes – With my recent Dalton Pompey obsession I’d sort of forgotten about second basemen Lopes.  He was already having a nice season but his last ten games have been something else, racking up fifteen hits, good for a .831 OPS.  Three of those knocks were doubles which makes up 60% of his total.  He only has six extra base hits on the season, but as he is only twenty, hopefully the power will come.  Contact is Christian’s calling card as he rarely walks, 2.7 BB%, and doesn’t strike out a ton, 13.4 K%.  His BABIP is on the high side at .398 which could point to luck, or he simply hits the ball hard.  As this is the positive side of the ledger, let’s go with the latter.

Andy Burns – A card carrying member of the Kevin Pillar Sleeper Prospect List, Andy has, so far, exceeded my expectations on the season.  I put him on the list due to his power potential and with a .513 slugging percentage and .205 ISO he has not let me down.  What has been a pleasant surprise has been the reduction in strike outs with his K% dropping from 23.1 in 2012 to 10.1 so far this season.  That gives him a very tidy 1.21 K/BB ratio.  He’s mainly manned third so far, committing five errors in the process, but hey, with the stat line he’s put up, I’m not overly concerned.  Plus, it means late entry to the KPSPL Peter Mooney is getting the bulk of reps at short.

Feb 25, 2013; Dunedin, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Sean Nolin (71) against the Boston Red Sox during a spring training split squad game at Florida Exchange Park. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Sean Nolin – Sean had a good off-season.  Not necessarily on the health front, but after putting up a very solid 2012 the twenty-three year old started showing up on prospecters radars.  Including Marc Hulet, who put him ninth on his Jays top fifteen (which was prior to the trades that gutted the eight above him).  Unfortunately for Nolin, a sore shoulder kept him out of action until Tuesday night when he made his season debut against the New Britain Rock Cats.  As far as outings go, it wasn’t the best, but, as the big club’s hurlers drop like flies, the fact Nolin is back pitching is positive in itself.

There you go.  Positives win this week four three.  I suppose I am a glass half full kind of guy.  There has been a lot of movement amongst the minor league clubs.  Unfortunately I missed the bulk of it while away.  Will try and catch up next week and write about anything worthwhile.

Last time I checked in with the Bisons they were putting up a twenty-seven spot on Syracuse.  That was for their fourth win on the spin.  Since then, they have reeled off five more, taking their winning streak to nine.  Now, normally I don’t give a rat’s about how the affiliates are actually faring.  I do agree with the Jays philosophy that playoff baseball at any level will only help players in their development, but for the most part, the development of the players is more important than the team’s record.  With that in mind, the Jays have made it clear that they need to win in Buffalo to ensure the relationship develops and hopefully continues beyond the first two year contract that was signed.  Hence the plethora of quad-A players signed in the off-season.

I’ve been saying for a few weeks now that Kevin Pillar‘s hot start in New Hampshire should see him in Buffalo before long, but with the Bisons winning and their outfield already pretty crowded, it is feasible, for the reasons mentioned above, that the Jays put winning before player development.  Not something I particularly agree with, but sometimes you need to see the ocean for the water.  And, who knows, could be Pillar gets called up tomorrow and this is all moot.

Quickly, before I move on.  The one prospect that Buffalo do have is off to a pretty nice start.  So far, Anthony Gose‘s numbers are better across the board.  You could argue that is necessary given this is his repeat year in AAA, but considering the fact he played in the Las Vegas launching pad last season, the Jays management must be pleasantly surprised.  And it’s where he is improving that is the most satisfactory.  Cutting down his strike-outs and improving his OBP.  His defense will still be his calling card, but I haven’t read up enough on UZR and how trusted it should be for minor league numbers.  Will endeavor to do that when I have time.

From the Vancouver Sun: Canadians centre-fielder Dalton Pompey fondly recalls watching Blue Jays such as Carlos Delgado play at the Rogers Centre. Photograph by: Les Bazso, PNG

For those that have been reading this series, you’ll know I have a particular fondness for Dalton Pompey.  A lot of it has to do with his passport, but beyond that I do think he is a player.  I won’t say my belief had wavered during his early early season struggles, but there were a few worries.  Those have been allayed somewhat with eight hits in his last five games.  More impressively, he’s tacked on eight walks, putting his OBP over .500, and scored nine runs .  He is still striking out a bit much and his ISO is sitting at a pretty meager .060.  Still, baby steps.  This could be a breakout year for Pompey.

Staying in Lansing, I’ve been all over the starts coverage wise, and for good reason.  There are two genuine prospects, a guy that I hadn’t really paid much attention to, and a couple of 2012 Vancouver Canadian stalwarts.  I was so wrapped up with them I hadn’t paid much attention to the bullpen at all.  There are two reasons for this:

a) I didn’t think the bullpen was all that good.  In fact, it contains two guys that I broke my ‘no release’ rule when making my off-season predictions and had them as saying goodbye to the Jays organization.

b) I don’t pay much attention the ‘pens at the lower levels.  If you’re a middle reliever in Low A, my theory is your future isn’t all that rosy.  May be narrow minded, but we don’t have all the time in the world here.

That being said, with the Lansing starters averaging around five innings per start, the bullpen does have a part to play.  And when I checked in on them last week, they were getting the job done.  Averaging 9.3 K/9, a 1.58 WHIP and 2.61 ERA.  After a bit of a rough week, the ERA has taken a battering, rise to 4.01 but the other numbers remain relatively similar.

Will Browning, Ian Kadish, and Andrew Sikula have been especially effective.  I was surprised to see Kadish back in Lansing, I would have thought he’d be in Dunedin before long.  The others have a big job to do this season with the Jays not piggy backing their starters.  Hopefully they’ll able to continue with their early season success.

The Bisons were rained out over four straight days last week, and again on Tuesday, meaning I don’t have a ton of material to work with.  I do have questions as to how they are going to manage their outfield situation going forward.  With the designation of Casper Wells, it is getting crowded in Buffalo.  I still think that if Kevin Pillar continues to hit like he has so far in New Hampshire,  the Jays are better served to promote him and have three prospects patrolling the Coca-Cola outfield.  I will not disagree with those that argue Pillar and Moises Sierra are minor prospects at best, however, we know what we have in Langerhans and Wells (in fact, I was surprised Wells was DFA’d in the first place).  Giving them at bats over Pillar seems a waste.

Feb 25, 2013; Dunedin, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Moises Sierra (14) against the Boston Red Sox during a spring training split squad game at Florida Exchange Park. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

As I’m a day late finishing this, am able to include today’s Buffalo result which is noteworthy simply for the sheer monstrosity of it.  The Bisons cranked out twenty-nine hits, good for a mere twenty-seven runs.  The highlights? Five home runs.  Six hits for Sierra, five for Luis Jimenez, and four apiece for Josh Thole and Jim Negrych.  In fact, looking at the line, Negrych hit for the cycle.  Not only that, he tacked on a strike-out and walk.  Surely that’s a super cycle or something.

In New Hampshire, Deck McGuire followed up a great start and my All Hands on Deck article with another strong outing, going six, giving up one earned, with five K’s and two walks.  His strike out rates are not quite as good as his 2011 numbers but they are not far off.  He’s also lowered his home run totals and WHIP.  A reasonable recipe for success.

Speaking of N.H. pitchers, there are two in the ‘pen who saw time in Toronto last year.  Both Chad Beck and Joel Carreno are enjoying success so far this season, with 19.3 and 17.1 K/9 ratios respectively.  Carreno has only given up one hit and one walk to boot while Beck has been a bit more generous with his base runners giving up eight and three in seven innings pitched.

Sporting the best record of the Jays affiliates, it’s the pitchers we always discuss when it comes to the Dunedin Blue Jays, and rightfully so.  The staff leads the Florida State League in WHIP and are second in ERA.  But, for the sake of fairness, let’s talk about the hitters.

Kevin Pillar Sleeper Prospect member Andy Burns and honourable mention Matt Newman have both gotten off to great starts.  In my KPSP article I said of Burns ‘he could stand cutting down on his strike outs, but if he maintains his slugging percentage in the notoriously unfriendly Florida State League, then people will start to take more notice.’  I’m not sure if people are taking notice after only thirteen games (not including Thursdays extra innings pitchers duel) but with a .560 slugging percentage, good for a .974 OPS and 1.40 BB/K ratio they soon will be.  His .240 ISO is an improvement on last season and he’s doing it all with a realistic .302 BABIP.

As opposed to Newman who is trundling along with an unsustainable .435 BABIP.  Still, Newman is a nice story.  An undersized left fielder, Matt skipped Lansing this year, ostensibly to be a back up outfielder in Dunedin.  With Michael Crouse going down (I’m attempting to find out why) Newman has stepped in with ten hits, including five doubles in nine games.  He also has a positive BB/K ratio at 1.20.

Speaking of Crouse, he had gotten off to a great start.  I know it was only four games, but after a terrible 2012, anything positive would have done him wonders.  Unfortunately the same can’t be said of fellow Canadian Marcus Knecht.  Similar to Crouse, Knecht is repeating the level after a tough 2012.  So far 2013 doesn’t look much better, as he is striking out at a 31.1% clip and sports .024 ISO. Ugly.

To carry on the hitters theme, let’s take a look at how the kids in Lansing are doing.  The Lugnuts were hit by the nasty weather as well, losing five games to rain since I last posted.  Of the three games they did get in, the first two were losses which finished off a five game losing streak where the offense only managed nine runs.  Not hard to see what the issue was.  The nadir was on Sunday when they wasted a solid performance from Roberto Osuna being no hit by Kyle Schepel and the South Bend Silver Hawks.

The streak was only broken by a dominating Javier Avendano performance against West Michigan when the Lugs hitters could only manage four hits but were helped by two Whitecaps errors.

As I mentioned above, this is a young team, with the bulk of the roster at twenty one and under.  And three of those players, if looking at OPS, are putting up decent numbers.  They are all striking out too much though.  With only the two shortstops Emilio Guerrero and Jorge Flores coming in with a K% under 20.  There are going to be ups and downs, no doubt, but it sure would be nice to see players like Dalton Pompey and Kellen Sweeney pick it up a bit.

There is a ton of potential in Lansing, and so far, aside from a few rough starts (will look at Daniel Norris separately) the pitching staff has lived up to its billing.  Once the hitters catch up, and the weather may part of the issue here, this should be a very good team.  Let’s revisit in a week, or three, as I am out of town for the next couple of weeks.  I will have limited access to internet, if I can post I will.

Better late than never, Dunedin’s broadcaster, Tyler Murray, gives us the scoop on Michael Crouse’s injury:

@charliecaskey He’s got an oblique injury but he’ll be back within the next two weeks. Our outfield is banged up!

— L. Tyler Murray (@Lt_Murk) April 19, 2013

March 2, 2012; Dunedin, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Deck McGuire (72) poses for a portrait during photo day at Florida Auto Exchange Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

The line:

IP    H    R    ER    BB    SO    HR    ERA
7.0    2    1      1        1        5      0      3.09

I suppose the stat that jumps out at you the most is his strike out numbers thus far.  I know, it’s only been two starts, but still.

Twelve punch-outs, good for a 25.5 K%.  His FIP sits at 2.17 which, if maintained, would be his career best by a mile.  He’s currently getting by with a .258 BABIP which should average out as the season wears on, thereby increasing his FIP as well.

I’m listening to Around the Nest, a round table discussion by the radio play by play men of the minor league affiliates.  New Hampshire’s broadcaster, Tom Gauthier, claims that it was the best start he’d seen in Deck’s Fisher Cats career.  He did add the caveat that it was a cold day and Binghampton’s hitters were quite aggressive, but you can only get the batters out in front of you.  And we all saw how Josh Johnson pitched in the cold yesterday.

I’m sure most know Deck’s story.  An eleventh overall pick in 2010, with Deck now in his third season in double-A, it is hard not to call McGuire a bust.  That being said, when drafted, the product of the Georgia Institute of Technology’s ceiling was that of a durable fourth or fifth starter.  A big body that can eat a lot of innings.  Can he reach that ceiling?  I doubt it.  But, after battling through some injuries early in his career, the fact he is now healthy and pitching fairly well, I may be proved wrong.

Going back to the radio roundtable, Dunedin’s Tyler Murray read out my tweet!  I’m famous:

@jgoldstrass @lt_murk Hopefully Sanchez’ start comes up. No earned runs, but only 3 K’s as well. Was he not missing that many bats?

— Charlie Caskey (@CharlieCaskey) April 12, 2013

Murray wasn’t worried about the lack of K’s, saying that Sanchez threw a great game, mixing a fastball that was hitting 98 on the gun with an 82 mile per hour change-up and 70 mph slow curve.  Any time you can create that kind of separation between your pitches, hitters are going to be uncomfortable.

One last note on yesterday’s games.  I was hopeful that Kevin Pillar‘s double on Wednesday night would be the start of a power surge.  So far my hopes have been answered.  Pillar went two for four with both those hits going for extra bases.  A double and home run upped his slugging percentage to a healthy .486.  Gauthier also mentioned that Pillar is second in the Eastern league with three stolen bases.  Is there anything this kid can’t do?  If he maintains this pace, it’ll be hard for the Jays brass to continue with Ryan Langerhans in left for Buffalo.

As this is a new feature this season, I’m still trying to work out the mechanics of how it will play on a week to week basis.  Giving it a structure makes my life easier as can fill in the blanks so to speak.  My current thinking is to discuss three or so themes of the week, which is what we’ll do today.  This format, as always, is subject to change.

I tried my best (honestly) to treat all four of the farm teams equally in week one, but I’d be lying if I said I was successful.  As I mentioned in the intro post, it is the lower levels that interest me the most, specifically Lansing’s pitching staff.  The Jays threw me a curve ball (see what I did there) by not having their starters piggy-back to begin the season.  As it stands, the Lugs are going with a five man rotation out of the gate.  I would still think, especially the younger guys, the starters will be subject to an innings ceiling.  I’m trying to find out how that will work in practice and will pass that information along as I receive it.

The first time through the rotation was, aside from one start, pretty spectacular.  The highlights:

Javier Avendano – 5 IP, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks, 0 ERs

Taylor Cole – 6 IP, 1 Hit, 1 BB, 7 Ks, 0 ERs

Roberto Osuna – 5 IP, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks, 1 ER

Alonzo Gonzalez- 6 IP, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks, 0 ERs

Norris pitching for the Bluefield Blue Jays in the summer of 2012 (Image via YourVanCs.com)

Not bad when your first four starters only allow 1 earned run.  And by all accounts, it was on a fluke inside the park home run.  Unbelievable numbers really.  Twenty-seven K’s and a WHIP of 0.59.

Unfortunately the one rough start was the fifth, as Daniel Norris got knocked around a bit, giving up six hits and two walks in three innings of work.  The most worrisome aspect being the inability to miss bats as Norris went K-less.  Not something you would expect from a power pitcher in low A ball.  I asked the Lugs radio man Jesse Goldberg-Strassler if he saw anything concerning.

@charliecaskey Early-season command woes.He just needs to get the ball down, but that’s easier said than done.

— Jesse G-S (@jgoldstrass) April 10, 2013

I know it’s early, but it’s hard not to get frustrated with Norris’ for not producing the odd dominating outing.  If you read the article I linked above, all accounts have Norris having made a lot of improvements, leading to a great spring training.  Buck Martinez (and this is a stretch as I rarely trust what Bucky says) was even comparing him to Clayton Kershaw when discussing the left-hander with Shi Davidi in the booth the other day.  An overstatement, sure, but I don’t think anyone believes that Norris should struggle in the lower minors.  The season is young, his next start may very well put a lot of my doubts to rest.

Sticking with Lansing for now (should I just change title to Lansing Filler In?) some of the young hitters have gotten off to nice starts as well.  Small sample size and all.

This being Gustavo Pierre‘s third shot with Lansing, it’s hard to get excited about him as a prospect.  That being said, he is still only 21 and at 6’2″ 185 pounds, there is room for a bit more growth.  With five of his nine hits going for extra bases, including two home runs, we may have a slugging shortstop on our hands.

Christian Lopes has also had a great start.  The Jays top second base prospect has ten hits to start the season, good for a .983 OPS.  He is only striking out at a 15.4% clip, which may be more telling.  If you look through the Lansing roster, you’re seeing some pretty high K rates.  You hope this is only an early season phenomenon as these kids get used to a higher level.

What more can you say about Kevin Pillar?  The ultimate sleeper prospect got off to a rough start in double A with two hit-less games out of the shoot.  Since then though, he has nine hits in five games, including three in last night’s game versus Tampa.  One of those was a double, which was his first extra base hit of the season.  Hopefully that’s just the start for Kevin.  I don’t think he’ll be a big home run hitter, but, as a gap to gap hitter, he should hit quite a few doubles.  His plate coverage has been good so far as well with a 1.50 BB/K ratio.  A hitting machine, I wonder how much the Jays will need to see before Buffalo comes calling.

Two interesting starters schedule to go today.  The system’s number one prospect Aaron Sanchez goes to the hill against the New York Yankees high A affiliate while in Binghamton, 2012 first rounder and current AA batting practice pitcher, Deck McGuire attempts to a rebound from a very poor first start.

These questions will focus on the baseball side of things, not how long do horses go before being re-shod, etc.  With a days worth of minor league games under our belt and day two getting under way, I already have questions.  This is going to be a long season:

What’s coming? (image courtesy of mlbprospectportal.com)

1) Dunedin, when is Aaron Sanchez going to get a start?  Hey, I love Jesse Hernandez as much as any other C’s fan, given his dominating start in the 2011 Northwest League clinching game three against Tri-City, but I’ve read enough expert opinions to know that he is probably a non-prospect right now.  And with Scott Copeland, a twenty-five year old minor league free agent, going tonight, it begs the question.  When do we get to see the the system’s number one prospect in action??!  I really hope he is not injured.

2) In Lansing, who will be piggy-backing with who?  Javier Avendano threw five excellent innings last night, and given he had a 108 innings pitched last year, it is reasonable to assume five will be his minimum if all goes well.  I wrote about who may piggy back with who back in December.  I predicted that Roberto Osuna or Daniel Norris may get the shorter side in an unequal split with Avendano.  Norris did relieve him last night, but only lasted an inning after getting lit up.  I am going to assume (always a mistake) that Norris was scheduled to go longer.  With Taylor Cole set to start tonight, will it be the same structure?  Cole going five before Osuna or maybe Alonzo Gonzales relieves?  Or, the ‘pen mops up today and Osuna/Gonzales are their own PB’ing tandem.  Then who gets starts four and five?  Tucker Donahue and Ben White??  Uh oh.

3) Anthony Gose in the two hole?  With Jose Reyes seemingly locked into the leadoff spot with the big team for the forseeable, is this the organization trying to find the right fit for Anthony?  With two different leadoff hitters for Buffalo in two games it’s not like they are playing someone there over Gose.

Anyone else have any questions through the first couple of days?  Whack em in the comments section and we’ll discuss when I put my feet up for the Jays dismantling of Farrel’s Sox.

Despite the mauling the Jays farm system took this off-season, a worthwhile mauling mind, judging by both the interest and excitement generated for the 2013 version of the big club, there is still quite a few prospects within the system that bear monitoring.  And since I’m a fully fledged member of the prospect porn community I’d like to build on my off-season draft review pieces by keeping tabs on the the seven minor league teams in the Jays organization.  I believe I’ve mentioned this before, but no harm in saying again.  I’m not a scout.  I’ll be deferring to expert opinions on any individual players.

The series will be a weekly offering, looking at the system from top to bottom.  A lot of readers may be smelling a redundancy with Colleague Kyle’s excellent prospect hot sheets.  It won’t be.  Where Kyle picks out individual performances for his hot sheets, I’ll be focusing more on the teams as a whole.  With any player references geared towards longer term trends and movement within the system.

As mentioned, it is my intention to look at the entire organization.  However, if I was to be perfectly honest, it is the lower level teams that interest me the most.  Those are where the bulk of the Jays upper tier prospects reside.  But hey, after what was a pretty 2012 season as far as player development is concerned, one can only hope 2013 is different, which means some of the younger players start advancing to, and making a difference in, New Hampshire and Buffalo.

In the interests of not letting this post drag on, a brief snapshot below of the full season teams that are about to kick off their 2013 seasons and who may be worth keeping an eye on:

February 24, 2013; Tampa, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Anthony Gose (8) runs to third base after hitting a triple in the third inning against the New York Yankees at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Buffalo Bisons – kick off their season tomorrow at home to Rochester.  Manager Marty Brown has named his roster.  As the Bisons are essentially a taxi squad of replacement level players there is not a ton to get excited for prospect purposes.  Obviously Anthony Gose is the big fish here.  As scouts debate whether Gose will ever be a serviceable major league hitter, you have to remember, he is still only 22.  He can only get better.  And the other tools he brings to the table will make him a valuable center fielder in the future.

I’ll also be keeping an eye on Moises Sierra and, after his nice 2012 in New Hampshire, Ryan Goins

New Hampshire Fisher Cats – This team is old, nor does it contain any true ‘blue-chip’ prospects.  Still, the lineup does contain quite a few names that could make a contribution in Toronto.

The outfield especially bears watching.  Kevin Pillar has become a hitting machine over the past couple of years and is everybody’s favourite sleeper prospect.  Kenny Wilson gets on base at a decent clip then steals a ton of them once there.  And Adam Loewen is just someone I cheer for.

In the infield, both Kevin Nolan and Ryan Schimpf had nice seasons last year with the latter making my aforementioned sleeper prospect list.  Failed power prospect Kevin Ahrens makes his double-A debut.  He’s listed as a back up, but you never know, crazier things have happened.

Pitching wise, there is plenty of major league experience in Evan Crawford, Chad Jenkins (both starting the year on the DL), Joel Carreno, and Chad Beck.  Makes you wonder what all the fuss was about with sending pitching prospects to Las Vegas.  It seems the Jays are still sending them to New Hampshire despite the Triple-A franchise now residing in the International League.

Dunedin Blue Jays – only in the Florida State league can you have a home and home series (well, I suppose in the Arizona League you could as well) which is how the D-Jays kick off the season with Clearwater.

The pitching staff will be the primary focus in Dunedin as you have two very different storylines to keep an eye one.  Ricky

March 23, 2013; Dunedin, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Ricky Romero (24) works out prior to the game against the Atlanta Braves at Florida Auto Exchange Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Romero‘s efforts to make it back to the big leagues and the development of Aaron Sanchez, the systems number one prospect.

I’ll also be very interested in how the middle infield shakes out.  Andy Burns made the sleeper prospect list and Peter Mooney had himself a very nice pro debut last year before having it cut short by injury.  Both are ostensibly shortstops, will wait and see which one is shifted to third or second.

The question in the outfield will be whether the two canucks, Michael Crouse and Marcus Knecht, can regain some of the prospect shine lost after their struggles in 2012.

Lansing – ahhhhh, Lansing, I swoon for you.  Not only because you’re the closest to my true love Vancouver Canadians, but also because you have got one hell of a roster to start 2013.  Where to begin?

Pitching – how about super prospects Robert Osuna and Daniel Norris?  Move on to two guys that dominated the Northwest League last year in Javier Avendano and Taylor Cole.  Then throw in a young, but very big, lefty in Alonzo Gonzales.  That’s a staff worth keeping an eye on.

Catchers – Two guys that I desperately wanted to see in Vancouver this year.  Santiago Nessy has pushed himself to the top of the Jays list in the position, but it shouldn’t be considered as addition through subtraction.  He has genuine pop in his bat.  And Seth Conner, in his brief pro career, has proven to be no slouch with the bat.

Infield – Emilio Guerrero is a very aggressive promotion considering his struggles at the plate last year.  Will be curious to see how he is used to start the year.  Christian Lopes is the org’s best second base prospect and quite highly rated overall.  Mix in fading prospect but still useful third basemen Kellen Sweeney and the Single Digit Assassin Jorge Flores, and the infield holds plenty of interest.

Outfield – Readers of my work, both here at JJ and over at yourvancs.com, will know that I have a bit of a crush on Dalton Pompey.  I am really pulling for him to get over his injury shortened 2012 and get off to a fast start this season.  A Dunedin assignment half way through the year may not be out of the realm of possibility.  Another looking to advance is Lansing repeater Chris Hawkins.  He’ll need to up his power numbers a bit to do it.

Right, there we have it.  All the above teams get things started tonight so this series is now live.  Now, if I can just figure out how I am going to keep track of all these teams/players, things will be far less stressful.

Two, the earlier signing dates only kicked in for 2012 so many ’11 picks actually didn’t see any pro action until this past season.

Finally, I’m just curious to see how these kids are getting on.  As pundits such as Marc Hulet have noted, the Jays recent trend of drafting athletes with high ceilings hasn’t really borne fruit thus far.

Thanks to the commenters who made suggestions after my 2012 series finished up.  The main theme being that it tended to drag on a bit, especially as I made it a mission to delve into the potential college careers of those that got away.  Well, the constructive criticism has been taken on board and I’ll be glossing over the 2011 unsigned picks.  Also, as noted in Round One of this exercise, if any of the players drafted also have made Colleague Kyle’s top 30 prospect breakdown, I’ll be deferring to him for any scouting breakdown.

This was due to be the final round, where our heroes drew from whatever testicular fortitude they had remaining to rise to the top.  However, I split up the last round, to give us one final piece of the puzzle.  Still, these guys have a lot to give.

A quick aside, the signing bonus information for the latter rounds is often guesswork, I’ve substituted in the players positions instead of searching for bonus figures.

Kramer Champlin – 33rd Round – 1009 Overall – RHP -  At 6’6″ and 200 pounds Kramer would normally scream projectability.

June 11, 2011; Austin, TX, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils pitcher Kramer Champlin (21) pitches against the Texas Longhorns during the second inning of the Austin super regional game at Disch-Falk Field. Texas beat Arizona State 5-1. Mandatory Credit: Brendan Maloney-USA TODAY Sports

However, Champlin is 23, so not sure how much he will grow.  As per this (very) brief scouting report, his fastball currently sits mid-80s.  That and his ‘big breaking slurve’ were good enough for a nice 9.85 K/9 ratio with Lansing last year, but you have to think that he’ll need to add a few more ticks to his fastball to be a viable bullpen option as he moves up the ladder.  I reckon his good year in the Midwest League will earn him a promotion to Dunedin, but if he struggles, that could be as far as he travels.

Aaron Munoz – 34th Round – 1039 Overall – C – Starting the season as Carlos Perez‘ backup in Lansing, Munoz took over the everyday(ish) duties after Perez was dealt to Houston in the Happ deal.  Most of the stuff I have read about Aaron mentions ‘defensive catcher’.  Which reads, you’d better throw guys out as you can’t hit.  And the numbers confirm it.  Munoz threw out 38% of potential base stealers this past season while only putting up a slash line of .223/.304/.259.  I would have to do a proper study of the Jays catching depth to make an ‘educated’ guess of where he’ll land in 2013.  For now, let’s just throw Aaron at the Dunedin wall and hope he sticks.

Jerrick Suiter – 35th Round – 1069 Overall – LHP -  I wish Jerrick had signed just for the name, but alas, the rather large (6’4″, 240) pitcher/outfielder decided to attend TCU and play for the world famous Horned Frogs.

Andrew Sikula – 36th Round – 1099 Overall – LHP – Sikula doesn’t really strike you as a closer.  He’s a bit on the smallish side (if you consider 6’1″ 195 small) and doesn’t really overpower hitters.  He only struck out 7.6 per 9 last year.  He does have decent control though, with a 3.10 K/BB ratio, and his LOB% in his first two seasons has been excellent.  After leading the C’s in games finished last year, he’ll be given the opportunity to pitch in high leverage spots for the Lugnuts this year.  Possibly even close with Ajay Meyer getting promoted.

Les Williams – 37th Round – 1129 Overall – LHP – The product of Northeastern U., Williams has had two consistent, if non-descript seasons with Bluefield.  Without going into specifics, all his stats are average at best.  Having only made 30 appearances over the two seasons with right around two innings per appearance it’s hard to see where Les goes from here.  He is a hometown Toronto boy, so am willing to bet he gets another season in the organization, more than likely as CanCon in Vancouver.

Nico Taylor – 38th Round – 1159 Overall – OF – a member of the Kevin Pillar Sleeper Prospect List sleeper prospect list, Nico needs to have a bit of a bounceback season in 2013 after seeing all his numbers go the wrong way in ’12.  I’m really digging deep trying to look for positives, but nothing jumps out.  He did increase his stolen base total, but at 6’4″ 215, I’m guessing speed isn’t his primary tool.  The most worrisome drops were his ISO from .187 to .085 and BB% from 13.9 to 7.2.  A big corner outfield with limited power does not make for a long career.  Hopefully Nico finds his power stroke this year, possibly at the Nat in Vancouver.

Chris Cox – 39th Round – 1189 Overall – LHP – An Ontario native, Cox went unsigned for reasons unknown.  There is a decent scouting report here.  Latest reports have him signing with the Diamondbacks.

Two, the earlier signing dates only kicked in for 2012 so many ’11 picks actually didn’t see any pro action until this past season.

Finally, I’m just curious to see how these kids are getting on.  As pundits such as Marc Hulet have noted, the Jays recent trend of drafting athletes with high ceilings hasn’t really borne fruit thus far.

Thanks to the commenters who made suggestions after my 2012 series finished up.  The main theme being that it tended to drag on a bit, especially as I made it a mission to delve into the potential college careers of those that got away.  Well, the constructive criticism has been taken on board and I’ll be glossing over the 2011 unsigned picks.  Also, as noted in Round One of this exercise, if any of the players drafted also have made Colleague Kyle’s top 30 prospect breakdown, I’ll be deferring to him for any scouting breakdown.

To use a UFC analogy, round four is the beginning of the ‘Championship Rounds’, where generally our heroes are too tired to do anything of note.  A quick aside, the signing bonus information for the latter rounds is often guesswork, and as I get lower and lower I’m not going to bother with much guessing, so ‘Unknown’ will become the order of the day:

Justin Atkinson – 26th Round – 799 Overall – $100,000 – Maple Boner alert!  The product of North Surrey H.S. got into 12 games as an 18 year old in 2011 before playing a full (short) season last year.  His raw numbers for the GCL Jays weren’t great, but he did show decent plate discipline with a low (for his age) K% of 14.2.  He also got on base at a decent clip despite a low BB%.  Justin was called up to Bluefield late in August to replace Christian Lopes who jumped to Vancouver.  With Matt Dean entrenched at third in Bluefield and hopefully doing the same in Vancouver next season, my prediction for Atkinson is that he will be going home.  Manning second for the C’s.

Derrick Loveless – 27th Round – 829 Overall – $125,000 – I just love the name, sounds like something out of Superbad, McLovin and D. Loveless.  Getting a five game cup of coffee with the GCL Jays after signing in ’11, Loveless repeated the level in 2012.  Splitting time between left and center, the outfielder struggled at the dish putting up a .165/.278/.304 slash line.  Loveless is the epitome of a high upside but very raw athlete that has a lot to learn about being a baseball player.  Having focused on multiple sports in his high school career, the Jays will give him lots of rope to find his feet.  Having just turned twenty, the organization will push him to Bluefield in 2013 despite the struggles.

Jorge Vega-Rosado – 28th Round – 859 Overall – $200,000 – Signing quickly and for a good chunk of change, JVR got into 51 games for the GCL Jays in 2011, putting up a very nice .317/.380/.470 slash line.  That line was augmented by a .378 BABIP which could point towards rookie ball defending or someone who hits the ball pretty hard.  Difficult to tell when no access to GB/FB rates.  A middle infielder in 2011, JVR saw time at five positions last season, over three different levels.  The Jays were aggressive with him to begin the year, with a full-season assignment in Lansing.  A terrible start was made worse with an undisclosed injury which kept him on the shelf for two months.  A short rehab in the GCL was followed by two months in the Appalachian League with Bluefield.  He put up some pretty decent numbers in Virginia, but the power dissipated somewhat and his BB rates were on the low side.  Should be interesting to see the approach the Jays take with him this season, given fact both middle infielder spots seem spoken for in Lansing.  Could be JVR is put on a more linear path with a Vancouver assignment.

Taylor Cole – 29th Round – 889 Overall – $50,000 – I’ve written quite a bit about Taylor over on my Vancouver Canadians blog so won’t go into the whole backstory.  There is absolutely nothing negative to say about the right-hander’s 2012, leading the Northwest League in ERA and WHIP, while placing second (to teammate Javier Avendano) in FIP.  Taylor struck out 7.73/9 while walking 2.31/9.  Still, his velocity hasn’t returned to its high school levels and last season, he was very much a control pitcher.  I think he will be successful as part of a stacked Lansing staff in 2013 but beyond that I have my worries.

Mar 13, 2013; Bradenton, FL, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates mascot Parrot taunts Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Kevin Pillar during the seventh inning of a spring training game at McKechnie Field. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Kevin Patterson – 30th Round – 919 Overall – Unknown – A seriously big dude at 6’4″ 220 pounds, the first basemen got 48 games over two levels in 2011.  After putting up a combined OPS of .956 the Jays had seen enough of him at rookie level (he’s 24) so Lansing was the next station stop in 2012.  Understandably, the jump didn’t help his overall numbers as there was regression across the board.  Still, 19 home runs, good for second in the league isn’t bad, and led to a healthy .220 ISO.  A reasonabe 11.6% walk rate contributed towards a .340 OBP which is decent.  I found a (very brief) scouting report which sounds like any big guy (Art Charles included).  Likes fastballs inside that can be turned on, struggles away.  I hope Kevin is enjoying the Florida heat as think he’ll be staying in Dunedin.

Austin Nola – 31st Round – 949 Overall – Unsigned – holy crap, I pulled out the ol’ Slapshot line in the last post regarding Austin’s brother Aaron, but I honestly didn’t realize the Jays had drafted both of them.

Kevin Pillar – 32nd Round – 979 Overall - Unknown – What more can be said about Mr Pillar that hasn’t been said already?  This is exactly the kind of player you hope to find in the lower rounds.  I named my first annual sleeper prospect list after him, and colleague Kyle ranked him #17 on his prospect countdown.  Over at Fangraphs, Marc Hulet had him at fourteen (moving up after the trades) with one of the best quotes you could say about him – ‘He’s one of those prospects that grows on you.’  As per Hulet’s prediction, Pillar will start the season with New Hampshire before a possible move to triple A.  For me, there would have to be a few injuries to see him in Toronto this year.

I’m going to finish there, instead of the usual ten.  Kevin Pillar has shown there is value to be had in the later rounds.  I don’t think he’ll be the only name on this particular list to have some success in the system as all the names that signed are intriguing and will be watched closely (be me at least) in the season to come.