May 15, 2013; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista (19) heads for home on an error by San Francisco Giants center fielder Angel Pagan (not pictured) during the first inning at the Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

We are catching the Baltimore Orioles with a wee bit of an issue in the starting rotation. A tried and true rookie from the 2012 draft class will be making his debut Thursday after Jair Jurrjens stunk the joint out in his first and only start of the year. SP Wei-Yin Chen is on the DL. Dylan Bundy is injured and also missing is OF Nolan Reimold, who hasn’t played since May 11 because of a right hamstring strain that has landed him on the DL.

Beware though. The Orioles, even with a 3-7 record in their last 10 games, entered Wednesday’s game against the Yankees with the best winning percentage in the Majors since July 29, 2012 (.613, 65-41)…and then proceeded to bash the Yankees with 3 homers and a win in their series finale. Buck Showalter has guided this team to a point where all AL East opponents are true contenders. No more beating the crap out of the Orioles for some easy wins. Showalter will always have his team prepared…but with the cyclical nature of baseball the Blue Jays need to stomp on their necks while they are down and show the East there are five contenders…because time is running out.

Probable Pitchers:

Game 1: Kevin Gausman (2-4, 3.11 ERA @ AA) vs Brandon Morrow (1-3, 5.16 ERA)
Game 2: Freddy Garcia (0-2, 4.84 ERA) vs TBD
Game 3: TBD vs R.A. Dickey (4-5, 4.50 ERA)
Game 4: TBD vs TBD

This should give you an idea how up in the air things are for both teams. To Be Determined taking up half the spots for both teams in this 4 gamer is something not seen very often. So let’s focus on what we do know. Brandon Morrow is still finding his legs after a stint on the DL. Aside from Robinson Cano teeing off on him in New York he generally did ok. If he can keep taking the steps forward, and his ERA is around 4 at the end of June then we have the makings of the ace we have always wanted to see. I refuse to use live up to his potential anymore because he has had time to do that. The key for him is to keep his pitch count decent. Throwing strikes is becoming the key component to his survival (duh) since his 2:1 K/BB ratio is middling at best. We need to see confidence and the ability to throw the ball where he wants it.

Kevin Gausman was the fourth overall pick in the 2012 draft and here he is already. He throws strikes, doesn’t walk many and along with Dylan Bundy make up the long term future of the Orioles rotation. The Jays just have to sit back and get a feel for the guy. Take pitches. Work the count. There can’t be much video to study so you know this kid just wants to throw strikes. So sit on a fastball and wait for it. He is the 11th starting pitcher used by the Orioles so this should spell out a win for the good guys.

Game 2 will be a battle of the retread vs the unproven. Freddy Garcia seems to have been around forever. From his glory years with the Mariners to begin his career to his resent situation in Baltimore, Garcia is truly a pitcher. He doesn’t throw as hard as he used to but a 1.07 WHIP and an opp BAA of .222 shows there is still life in that arm. If given the chance I hope we get to tee off on him. His GO/AO is a paltry .83 so expect lots of flyballs and with the way some of the Jays are swinging the bats it should be a homer happy type of game.

This of course is dependent on who will be the starter for the Jays. Chad Jenkins is available but has only thrown a max of 6 innings since coming back from injury. There is talk that 2010 6th rounder Sean Nolin (2-0. 1.17 ERA @ AA) could be shuffled up from New Hampshire to take the start. He has been rising up on the depth charts and appears to be this years…ummm…Chad Jenkins. Reliable with a big arm that could translate to average major league success. Considering he is three years from his draft year he has done quite well. But this is only an educated guess as to who our TBD will be.

Game 3 sees the resurgent R.A. Dickey taking the mound against a yet to be determined opponent. In his last three starts Dickey is averaging 7+ innings, 2 ER and about 7 Ks. This would appear to be closer to the Cy Young starter we gave up some of our future for. His overall WHIP of 1.31 is right in line with his career norm (1.33) so he has been as good as before but he has given up some timely hits this season that have doomed him to fail. The last three starts shows none of that and I am sure a focused Dickey would have no problem taking down a TBD pitcher…

Line-Ups:

The following are the probable line-ups for both squads:

Baltimore

1. LF: Nate McLouth
2. 3B: Manny Machado
3. RF: Nick Markakis
4. DH: Adam Jones
5. 1B: Chris Davis
6. C: Matt Wieters
7. SS: J.J. Hardy
8. CF: Chris Dickerson
9. 2B: Alexi Casilla

Toronto Blue Jays:
1. LF: Melky Cabrera
2. RF: Jose Bautista
3. 1B: Edwin Encarnacion
4. DH: Adam Lind
5. C: J.P. Arencibia
6. 3B: Brett Lawrie
7. CF: Colby Rasmus
8. 2B: Maicer Izturis
9. SS: Munenori Kawasaki

It would seem Melky Cabrera has tried to put to rest the feeling that he wouldn’t be able to play up to his potential without the use of drugs. In his last ten Cabrera has a .333 AVG which seems to say yes but his 0-5 in the last couple games makes you wonder if the tightness in his legs is causing some different issues at the plate. He is still below his career norms in OBP (.318 to .337) and Slugging % (.374 to .412) but he isn’t the bust many experts were saying hew would be. If he gets over his leg issues watch out.

Then there is da man. Da chief mucky muck himself Jose Bautista. In his last ten Bautista has carried the team on his shoulders it would seem (highlighted by his 2 HR, 4 RBI performance against the Rats…err…Rays). .412 AVG, 14 Hits, 10 runs scored, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 9 BB, 6 Ks and a stolen base for good measure. His average is up to .275 and I think we have finally seen a healthy Bautista coming to the plate. More selective and more confident we may be able to ride his bat to another series win considering the status of the Baltimore rotation.

Final Word

Thank goodness for Bautista because a lot of the other bats are just there for show it would seem (Arencibia, Lawrie, Rasmus). Baltimore has been free falling from 1st place is the East and now 3rd and in danger of falling to fourth. So which team are they? The one kicking MLB butt for almost a year or the one that is falling on it’s butt lately? It is hard to tell but it shouldn’t matter. If our starters can give a good 6-7 innings and Cabrera, Bautista, Encarnacion and Lind can keep firing on all cylinders then we should easily take 3 of 4. Some turnarounds are slower than others but it is apparent we are playing much better ball this month. Hopefully we can end May on an even higher note.

May 12, 2013; Boston, MA USA; Toronto Blue Jays batting gloves are piled up in the dugout prior to a game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Hopefully the rain out and the sun covered turf will snap the Blue Jays back into the hitting force that they were during their modest streak. Yankee Stadium is always tough to play in but to lose to a team that has Jayson Nix starting is downright offensive. Holding things down while Jose Reyes still recovers has led to some strange batting orders. Going with the hot hand up front is great but I still believe in spreading the wealth from 1 through 9.

Our hitting has been inconsistent all season in general and with one of the driving forces of our offence lately struggling to run, (see Cabrera, Melky) we sent down the horrendous Mickey Storey and boosted the bench with the speed of Anthony Gose. It is a wee bit surprising considering Gose has had a bit of a down year offensively. He has hit .227 with two home runs, 12 RBIs, and five steals in 40 games in AAA so far. This is obviously strictly a move for defensive purposes and for pinch running to give Melky some time off late in games. With Rajai still down this is something we have lacked for a week or so.

Probable Pitchers:

Game 1: Jake Odorizzi (0-0, 9.00 ERA) vs R.A. Dickey (3-5, 4.83 ERA)
Game 2: Alex Cobb (4-2, 2.89 ERA) vs Ramon Ortiz (1-1, 2.35 ERA)
Game 3: Jeremy Hellickson (2-2, 5.82 ERA) vs Mark Buehrle (1-3, 6.33 ERA)

I worry about this game 1 for one simple reason. The Blue Jays have a perception that they do not do so well against young pitchers they haven’t seen much of (hellllllo again David Phelps). If Dickey can improve on his last outing against the Rays (6 IP, 2 ER, 5 BB, 5 K) then we should have no problem with this start. Walks still seem to be a bit of an issue but he seems to slowly be finding his groove. Hopefully his neck and back keep getting better.

While with Triple-A Durham, Odorizzi was 4-0 with a 3.83 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 47 strikeouts. He has a killer fastball that repeats around 93 MPH and has always been a bit of a bulldog on the mound. He shows no fear and will bring the same killer instinct as the man he is replacing in the rotation. With Joe Maddon pulling the strings he should feel comfortable with a manager who has his back.

Game 2 gives us the bulldog versus the veteran. Cobb has averaged a team best 6 2/3 IP and has not allowed more than 4 ER in any of his starts this season. Cobb is already cog in the machine for the Rays and has helpd to offset the trading of the aforementioned Shields and Wade Davis. Hopefully our saving grace will be two-fold. One, Cobb’s ERA nearly doubles during day games (4.50 ERA). Two, Ramon Ortiz continues to defy the odds and pitches like the crafty veteran he has become. If he can keep his walks in check and takes advantage of the not-so-hot Rays line-up then we may have a chance in this game. The biggest question now is now long can he maintain this pace considering he hadn’t pitched in an MLB game since 2011.

If any of these games are going to have a offensive explosion it would be game 3. Hellickson has seen his ERA go up and up in his last six starts (from 3.55 to 5.82) He is 2-1 with a 3.70 ERA in four career starts at Rogers Centre so there is a chance he turns it around here. Buehrle pitched well in his last start until the seventh where the bullpen allowed his inherited runners to score. Buehrle seems to have become a 6 inning pitcher these days and aside from the 1 earned he threw during his great game in Boston, we have come to expect 5 earned in any game he starts. A 1.48 WHIP is .2 higher than his careers norm. Is he slowly turning the corner or have we inherited a game pitcher on a precipitous decline.

Line-Ups:

The following are the probable line-ups for both squads:

Tampa Bay Rays:

1. CF: Desmond Jennings
2. RF: Matt Joyce
3. 2B: Ben Zobrist
4. 3B: Evan Longoria
5. 1B: James Loney
6. DH: Luke Scott
7. LF: Sam Fuld
8. C: Jose Lobaton
9. SS: Yunel Escobar

Toronto Blue Jays:

1. LF: Melky Cabrera
2. RF: Jose Bautista
3. 1B: Edwin Encarnacion
4. DH: Adam Lind
5. 3B: Brett Lawrie
6. CF: Colby Rasmus
7. 2B: Emilio Bonifacio
8. C: Henry Blanco
9. SS: Munenori Kawasaki

Looking at these two line-ups it would seem the Jays should give the Rays fits. However, the Rays have the best record in baseball against the Blue Jays at 63-31 (.670) since 2008, and an all-time record of 138-123 (.529). They seem to be the re-incarnation of the Milwaukee Brewers of the late ’80′s. A team that is middling in general but has our number overall. And in May, the Rays have the best team BAA of .292. Couple that with our second worst pitching in May (5.31 ERA) and you have to wonder if the Jays have what it takes to derail the Rays at the plate.

Final Word

I keep hoping the Jays pitchers will turn it around but as the season keeps going I am starting to wonder if we are what we are. A decent hitting team that is brought down by it’s starters. Funnily enough, it is the replacements that have done a decent job in keeping us in the game. We need Dickey to keep getting better and we need the rest of the veteran staff to become the pitchers they have always been (Josh Johnson) rather than what they have become (Mark Buehrle). Until that happens we have to pound other teams into submission with the bats. Against the Rays, however, it seems that we may have to wait until the next series.

May 15, 2013; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista (19) and left fielder Emilio Bonifacio (1) and center fielder Colby Rasmus (28) get congratulated by second baseman Maicer Izturis (3) and shortstop Munenori Kawasaki (66) after a win against the San Francisco Giants at the Rogers Centre. Toronto defeated San Francisco 11-3. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

How can this be? Wells played poorly average in Toronto in 2010, gets traded in almost the biggest salary dump in MLB history before the 2011 season (than YOU Art Moreno), is relegated to 5th outfielder status as the likes of Peter Bourjos and Mike Trout take his at bats and then in another beauty, the Yankees come calling because of serious injury issues and just needed a warm body to play the outfield until Curtis Granderson et al returned from the DL. Funny thing is, Wells has started to mash. Mash like he did when he was the star player for YOUR Toronto Blue Jays. Look at his slash line… .295/.354/.527. Couple that with his re-discovery of hitting home runs with 10 so far and you have 27 year old Vernon in his 34 year old body (he even has 4 steals!).

It is players like that that keep the Yankees afloat. Even in dire times when injuries ravage them they still manage to find the rose in a pile of retread mud. They are like the Illuminati of the baseball world…almost unstoppable. I yearn for the 80′s when they were a dysfunctional caricature of themselves…

Probable Pitchers:

Game 1: Mark Buehrle (1-2, 6.19 ERA) vs Hiroki Kuroda (5-2, 2.31 ERA)
Game 2: Brandon Morrow (1-2, 4.69 ERA) vs David Phelps (1-2, 4.33 ERA)
Game 3: R.A. Dickey (3-5, 4.83 ERA) vs C.C. Sabathia (4-3, 3.19 ERA)

In Game 1, Buehrle is hoping to build off his last start which was by far his best of the season. Better still was the fact he was able to keep the ball in the ballpark at Fenway, which is a feat unto itself. If he is the consistent bulldog he has been reputed to be then this would be a great time to run off a string of victories. The way the offence is clicking right now it would seem an easier task…that is it could be if we can smack a few runs off a growing arch nemesis in Kuroda. Two words to describe Kuroda would be old and goooooood. He is even more dominant at Yankee Stadium where his ERA is 1.93.

The numbers seem to favour the Yankees but when the top of your order is hitting .457 during a 4 game win streak you start to wonder if Kuroda is due for a knock around game. That batting average is brought to you by Melky Cabrera, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion and if you told me a week ago they would be our 1, 2 and 3 hitters I would have thought you got cracked by an Encarnacion bat flying into the seats.

Game 2 sees our potential-stuffed Morrow taking on a wee kid in the Majors who is making only his 4th start of the season in Phelps. Phelps had a 2.51 ERA in the minors with over 500 innings pitched so he has a decent pedigree. Since being inserted into the rotation he has a ridiculous GO/AO of 2.89 and a 3.44 ERA…mind you this was against the Astros, Rockies and Indians. If Morrow is over his neck issues that have held him back for two weeks then this could be a very lopsided game in favour of the good guys.

Game 3 is the proverbial battle of the aces. Dickey seems to finally be getting over his neck and back issues (for now). He tallied 10 Ks and two walks last time out and his knuckleball was really dancing. He allowed two earned runs while recording his team-leading sixth quality start. If he can keep the ball in the park and keep cutting down on his walks, then this could be another game taken by the Jays.

Sabathia has almost looked human lately. In 3 starts this month his ERA is 2.76 but his WHIP is an un-Sabathia like 1.47 and his opp BAA is .284. He is making pitches when he needs to but with his big body he may be on the verge of the inevitable down slide.

Line-Ups:

The following are the probable line-ups for both squads:

Toronto Blue Jays:

1. LF: Melky Cabrera
2. RF: Jose Bautista
3. 1B: Edwin Encarnacion
4. C: J.P. Arencibia
5. DH: Adam Lind
6. 3B: Brett Lawrie
7. CF: Colby Rasmus
8. 2B: Maicer Izturis
9. S: Munenori Kawasaki

New York Yankees:

1. CF: Brett Gardner
2. SS: Jayson Nix
3. 2B: Robinson Cano
4. LF: Vernon Wells
5. 1B: Lyle Overbay
6. DH: Curtis Granderson
7. 3B: David Adams
8. RF: Ichiro Suzuki
9. C: Austin Romine

So it is assumed that most of us willed April away due to it’s horrendous outcome. Here is a little sprinkling of May numbers to show you we are on the right track as a team… .271/.340/.439 which is good for about fourth overall in the American League. The hitters have finally started hitting. Now it is time for the pitchers to deliver. Although the month has looked rosy if you look deeper the Jays pitching has still been atrocious. Our team ERA of 5.20 and WHIP of 1.52 in May is almost the worst in the AL (thank gawd for the Astros). I know this is the offensive league but they boys can only do so much. We need our pitching to come around and get healthy…Ramon Ortiz, as fun as it’s been to watch him, isn’t going to cut it.

Final Word

An offence can carry a team through difficult times. It can render opponents feeling like a truck just ran over them. I am sure the Giants are feeling that effect. Thing is, everyone in the AL has the power to do what the Jays have been doing with the offence. What we need is the starters to prove to us there is more to see. Alex Anthopoulos scoured waiver wires and free agency to find some depth to the staff and found pretty much nothing. If injuries are going to play such a big part then perhaps we need to put someone like Chad Jenkins in full time. I would rather his upside be used than Ortiz’s pedigree. Pitching and defense win championships and until I see more consistency in both area, the Jays better be the second coming of the ’23 Yankees (yes I smell the iron…y).

May 11, 2013; Boston, MA USA; Toronto Blue Jays center fielder Colby Rasmus (28) high fives right fielder Jose Bautista (19) after scoring a run during the third inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Interleague play is upon us for the first time this season and we get to look across the diamond at the World Champ-een San Francisco Giants. They sit atop the NL West and ane second in the National League with a 23-15 record. Super stud pitcher Tim Lincecum has been struggling a bit with an ERA of 4.07 and a K:BB ratio of just over 2. Opponents are hitting him at a .242 clip so even though he trimmed off the locks it hasn’t seemed to bring him back to the 2-time Cy Young winner we know him to be.

They may be world beaters but with the momentum the Jays are building we could sweep this mini 2 gamer. Let’s take a closer look.

Probable Pitchers:

Game 1: Barry Zito (3-1, 2.75 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) vs R.A. Dickey (2-5, 5.06 ERA, 1.35 WHIP)
Game 2: Ryan Vogelsong (1-3, 7.78 ERA, 1.73 WHIP) vs Brendan Morrow (1-2 4.69 ERA, 1.46 WHIP)

Looking over Zito’s peripherals it’s a wonder his ERA is so low. He doesn’t strike many out and his WHIP is a little high but he is getting the job done. Know way has he lived up to his $120M contract but he is a serviceable 4th or 5th starter. With 7 of our players hitting .290 or better in May it would seem that Zito is ripe for a beat down at Rogers Centre. Our best player has been our best player in May as Jose Bautista is scorching the ball (.333, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 10 BB, .453 OBP. 1.017 OPS) and seems to have fully turned things around. He is walking more than he is striking out and thus is seeing the ball very well.

If R.A. Dickey is back to full health I expect a huge game from him. It has been speculated that most of his troubles stem from not being able to throw his “hard” knuckler which was his out pitch during his Cy Young season. he has been better which is probably his shoulder and back loosening up more. If he is not completely healthy then the Giants would have a slight edge having played against Dickey in the NL. Our starters have already given up 25 homers (6 apiece for Dickey and Buehrle) but that number waned a bit during the 4-3 road trip. Expect the starters to keep improving and not regressing and thus keeping the balls in the park.

Ryan Vogelsong had a decent year last year but if you talk regression this is your prime candidate. 7 starts, 53 hits in just over 39 innings. Sounds like the type of starter the Jays need to keep their streak rolling. If Morrow’s arm is still not 100% this could be a power show from both sides. The Giants hitting has been ok to this point (2 regulars hitting over .300) and all it takes is a hurt pitcher to float a couple to the plate for smacking out. I wonder if Melky has any lingering feelings for his old team?

Line-Ups:

The following are the probable line-ups for both squads:

San Francisco:

1. CF: Angel Pagan
2. 2B: Marco Scutaro
3. 3B: Pablo Sandoval
4. C: Buster Posey
5. RF: Hunter Pence
6. 1B: Brandon Belt
7. DH: Andres Torres
8. LF: Gregor Blanco
9. SS: Brandon Crawford

Toronto Blue Jays:

1. LF: Melky Cabrera
2. RF: Jose Bautista
3. 1B: Edwin Encarnacion
4. C: J.P. Arencibia
5. DH: Adam Lind
6. 3B: Brett Lawrie
7. CF: Colby Rasmus
8. 2B: Emilio Bonifacio
9. SS: Munenori Kawasaki

The leader of the GIants staff seems to have become the youngest member, Madison Bumgarner (2.18 ERA, .198 opp BAA, 0.93 WHIP). Them there is Cy young numbers. With a resurgent Zito they are holding the fort down while usual stalwart Matt Cain continues to trip over himself this year (5.04 ERA, .225 opp BAA and a strikeout rate below 1 per inning) and Ryan Vogelsong is, well, Ryan Vogelsong. This is a team built for pitching and considering how their usual aces are not firing on all cylinders it is amazing they are still 2nd in the NL. Aside from Posey and Sandoval there isn’t much to fret about in their hitting order. Lots of veteran professionals but definitely no game changers.

The Final Word:

SO it would seem our bats are finally coming together even though our line-up seems to need changing daily. We are weathering the storm as we get through these troublesome injuries. It has been a great beginning to May and hopefully we can keep the bats hitting together, grouping those hits and keeping innings going with smart, aggressive ball. We lucked out in getting the bottom end of the Giants rotation and this should lead to a couple more wins and some HR fireworks at the ballpark. it is time to start believing again. If the Jays can play .580 ball the rest of the way it will bring us to 91 wins. Those numbers seem very attainable if we continue to take series…though this series should be a 2 game sweep for us. From then on we just need to win series after series and we will be in the thick of things come all-star break.

May 7, 2013; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista (19) jumps over second baseman Maicer Izturis (3) after he catch a fly ball during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

As long as we keep hitting perhaps we can ride out this wave. Josh Johnson should be back soon and Mark Buehrle surly cannot have fallen off a cliff already (7.02 ERA, 60 ERA+). His 11 home runs allowed leads the American League so far. He has always been a guy giving up hits (10 out if 14 years he allowed more hits than innings pitched) but he has always been able to get the outs when needed. Still waiting on that…

Probable Starters:

Game 1: Ramon Ortiz (0-0, 5.40 ERA) vs Jon Lester (4-0, 3.30 ERA)
Game 2: Mark Buehrle (1-2, .308 opp BAA) vs Clay Buchholz (6-0, 1.60 ERA)
Game 3: Brandon Morrow (1-2, 4.69 ERA) vs Ryan Dempster (2-3, 2.93 ERA)

Lester gave us fits in his first start against is giving up no runs. His next start was on the other end of the spectrum, having given up 5 earned. Which Lester should we expect to see? Well since April 13th when his ERA was 1.42 after his third start, that same ERA has risen ever game since to it’s current 3.30. That is almost two full runs a game over four starts. Sounds like he may be trending in the wrong direction.

Ramon Ortiz? Typical 4A pitcher just being used as filler until Josh Johnson and J.A. Happ are healthy. After this start we won’t need a 5th starter until May 21 so we should be able to suck it up.

Game 2 should be interesting. After the spitball allegations from Jack Morris and Dirk Hayhurst you know the Boston fans are going to be fired up. I am sure Buchholz will also be primed and ready for this game. More than a strikeout an inning, a .193 opp BAA and a WHIP of 1.03 suggest that it isn’t just a spitball. Buchholz always had the pedigree and perhaps he is finally putting it all together at age 29.

Hard luck starter Mark Buehrle is just an enigma at this point. A 12 year career of workmanlike slightly above average pitching was all we asked of him. Perhaps having his Pit Bull back home with his family has really taken an emotional toll on him. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him request a trade and get traded at the deadline.

After a terrible showing in Texas after the trade deadline, Game 3 starter Ryan Dempster signing with the Red Sox seemed odd. Wasn’t Dempster more valuable in the National League? With a 11.51 K/9 inn ratio and an ERA under 3, he has been much more than expected. The Canadian held out of the World Baseball Classic to further his adjustment back to the American League and his work has paid off.

Brandon Morrow also appeared to turn a corner with his 8 strong innings last time out. The five walks were a bit worrisome but I am sure it is a mechanical issue that he and Pete Walker can work out. His 2:1 K/BB ratio is slightly worse than his career average of 2.26:1. He has always been a bit wild but at 29 I was hoping he would do the same thing Buchholz is doing for the Red Sox: taking the next step forward to being a consistently elite pitcher.

Line-Ups:

The following are the probable line-ups for both squads:

Toronto:

1. LF: Rajai Davis
2. DH: Melky Cabrera
3. RF: Jose Bautista
4. 1B: Edwin Encarnacion
5. C: J.P. Arencibia
6. 3B: Brett Lawrie
7. CF: Colby Rasmus
8. SS: Maicer Izturis
9. 2B; Emilio Bonifacio

Boston

1. CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
2, RF: Shane Victorino
3. 2B: Dustin Pedroia
4. DH: David Ortiz
5. 1B: Mike Napoli
6. LF: Daniel Nava
7. C: Jarrod Saltalamacchia
8. 3B: Will Middlebrooks
9. SS: Stephen Drew

Again, as in years past, the Red Sox have strong cogs up and down the line up as their 3rd place Team BAA of .268 proves. Dustin Pedroia is still the heart and soul of this team and he leads by example (.316 BAA and .411 OBP). Although the team is ranked only 7th in Team ERA (3.87), it has been the pitching that has kept the Red Sox on top (well until the Twins mopped the field with them). Their bullpen has been spotty and they have lost Joel Hanrahan for perhaps the season with forearm issues. And so it’s Andrew Bailey closing and that seems to be just fine in the interim (1.46 ERA, .140 opp BAA and a WHIP of 0.81). Pretty good second option.

The Final Word:

Well we showed some spark on offence in Tampa Bay that we hadn’t seen for a while. We may have split the series but for the first time in a while we seemed to play very well for the entire series….offensively that is. If our starters can buck up and go 7 or 8 innings strong we should pull out a series win. If the Red Sox old men continue to perform without health issues and if David Ortiz keeps raking like a mad man (.353 BAA, .384 OBP, .662 SLG% and 1.045 OPS) then we will be in trouble.

A sweep of the Sox while they are reeling is critical to keeping our playoff aspirations somewhat conceivable. Losing 3 of 4 handily to the already afterthought Twins seems to reveal cracks in the armour. With the way the offence is coming around we may be able to rip a few holes in their armour and begin the slow climb upwards in the standings.

May 7, 2013; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays center fielder Colby Rasmus (28) is congratulated by designated hitter Adam Lind (26) and second baseman Maicer Izturis (3) after he hit a 2-run home run during the seventh inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 6-4. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The fact that we are pounding runs on the board against the Rays (back in the day it was the Brewers…couldn’t beat them to save our lives) says something about the culture change slowly seeping through the room. We are blessed with OBP guys like Bautista and Reyes and power guys like Rasmus and Encarnacion. Though the effects of the patient approach are not in full swing yet, it is easy to see why the team was floundering offensively for all of April.

We overuse the word chemistry to define whether a team is working together or not. In many cases we use it as the excuse as to why the Jays are winning or losing. “They aren’t playing together”. “They seem to be working only for themselves”. Thes are two of the things I have heard from my Blue Jays fan base I know. Here’s the crux: how long does it really take to implement a new philosophy? We know John Gibbons has not given the green light to run as much as we would like (though Reyes is out and Bonifacio is destroying his good name by not even getting on base). There is the occasional bunt (Cabrera?….interesting…) and brilliant placements of the ball (Encarnacion making the Rays super-shift look stupid as he wired a hit through where a second baseman should have been standing).

What I am noticing through this first week of May is the counts are getting deeper. The hits seem to be falling a bit more. This is great. However, hit and runs still seem to be few and far between, delayed steals are non-existent. We need to start packaging the hits together more. As for the pitchers, we don’t attack the hitters as well as we could and are prone to lapses of horrid pitching in general (each starter has had their share of high run innings). It all comes down to focus.

If we are truly the veteran team that knows what it takes then the team needs to bear down. Focus. The difference between winners and losers isn’t always talent. It’s desire. The desire to be the best. Have fun with it but know what you are here for. Maybe the NL bats coming over aren’t used to the uber pitching that they find in the AL. We know it is overall a strikeout type league. Once it dawns on them the amount of fastballs they are going to see then they can start looking for that one pitch per at bat. Foul off the close ones and get ready to mash it. Have a plan.

Our capabilities are good power, great speed, deep inning starters and a flame throwing bullpen. We have all that. But talent is only one part of the equation. Let the team gel more and a better idea will have formed at the end of May. With half the roster different from last opening day and so many players from other organizations (Marlins, Giants, Angels, Mets, Nationals, Indians, Diamondbacks), it takes time to gather momentum. My pessimist side says 2014 is the true year (minus a traded Mark Buehrle and possibly Josh Johnson….dependent on performance and the offer of an extension…).

This year is about growing together as a team. We will push for the playoffs but fall short due to our putrid start IMO. Next year though watch out…any of you disagree? Feel free to comment…I am stats poor so if you want to defend me or bury me I am game. Bring it on!

Apr 3, 2013; Toronto, ON, Canada; Toronto Blue Jays pitcher R.A. Dickey (43) and pitcher J.A. Happ (48) and pitcher Mark Buehrle (56) and pitcher Josh Johnson (55) look on from the top step of the dugout against the Cleveland Indians at Rogers Centre. The Indians beat the Blue Jays 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

This time around we hope to build off of perhaps our most complete game of the season: Timely hits, great pitching (though each pitcher seems to still have “the inning”) and the defense seems to have started to pick itself up off the trash heap. Can we keep it going? Well I hope so, though we are facing our dreaded nemesis, the Rays.

Mind you our dreaded nemesis seems to be going through the same rough patch of pitching and timely hitting and thus are also the only other team in the East with a losing record. James Loney has been leading the charge lately at the plate (Over his last 17 games played he has hit .528 (28-for-53)) This has raised his average to .398…yes I know…THAT James Loney. The pitching always seems to give Toronto fits, especially at Tropicana Field. The game matches up Tampa Bay’s No. 9 ranked American League offense (4.4 runs per game) against a Blue Jays defense and pitching staff that sits at No. 13 in the American League at 5.1 runs allowed per game.

Probable Starters:

Game 1: Mark Buehrle (1-2, 6.43 ERA) vs Jeremy Hellickson (1-2, 4.71 ERA)
Game 2: J.A. Happ (2-2, 3.98 ERA) vs Roberto Hernandez (1-4, 5.28 ERA)
Game 3: Ricky Romero (0-1, 6.75 ERA vs Matt Moore (5-0, 1.95 ERA)
Game 4: R.A. Dickey (2-5, 5.36 ERA) vs David Price (1-3, 6.25 ERA)

Game 1 should provide a boatload of offence considering the struggles of both Buehrle and Hellickson (who is 3-2 with a 2.89 ERA in six career starts against Toronto). After allowing four runs on nine hits in his last start he is looking to start their 10 game homestand with a win. Buehrle…well he has to stop lofting up tater bombs every game. 3 homers given up in each of the last two games is kind of a lot, even by Buehrle standards. Even if we don’t score first, Tampa has given up the lead in 11 of their 16 losses. This is definitely a Rays team still searching for who they are this season.

Game 2 features our most consistent starter against a man trying to find his own identity (after having to give up his false one…right Fausto?). If Happ can keep the walks to a minimum (SEVEN last game), he has as good a shot at this average offensive team. Since Fausto became Roberto it has not been smooth sailing for the 33 year old (we think 33). He has one quality start out of his last five and seems to have become just a mediocre rotation filler. He does have strikeout capability (30 Ks in 30.2 innings) but will it be enough?

Game 3 should be intriguing for two reasons. First off, Romero did ok in his first outing since changing his pitching mechanics. He had a sweet 1st time through Seattle’s lineup setting them all down through 3 innings but he ran into hit troubles in the 4th. If he can build off the first three innings then we may have a chance. If he can’t, this could be the game where you hide your hands over your eyes. Matt Moore has followed in the footstep of many Rays pitchers and is dominating the league in the early going. In 2012 he displayed flashes of his greatness and this season has put it all together. All-Star games and votes for the Cy Young await him if he continues to baffle hitters (41K in 37 innings and a 1.05 WHIP)

Finally Game 4 is a test of both staff aces. Dickey and Price are struggling. Dickey claims his injury is minor and perhaps it is. Unfortunately it seems to be affecting the way he pitches. He gave up a trio of home runs in the Seattle series. He also has a paltry 2-1 K:BB Ratio and I am starting to wonder if a DL stint would help. Let’s see how his knuckler dances under the Trop Dome. Aside from a public feud with umpire Tom Hallion, Price has not been his usual dominant self. His last start against the Rockies he gave up 9 runs for the first time in 4 years. His velocity is down as well so I wonder…arm trouble? This could be a great chance to lay a beating on the man.

Line-Ups:

The following are the probable line-ups for both squads:

Toronto Blue Jays:

1. 3B: Brett Lawrie
2. DH: Adam Lind
3. RF: Jose Bautista
4. 1B: Edwin Encarnacion
5. LF: Melky Cabrera
6. C: J.P. Arencibia
7. CF: Colby Rasmus
8. 2B: Maicer Izturis
9. SS: Munenori Kawasaki

Tampa Bay Rays:

1. CF: Desmond Jennings
2. RF: Matt Joyce
3. 2B: Ben Zobrist
4. 3B: Evan Longoria
5. 1B: James Loney
6. SS: Yunel Escobar
7. DH: Luke Scott
8. LF: Kelly Johnson
9. C: Jose Molina

We all know that both teams are struggling. This may be the best chance the Blue Jays have to salvage their season. If they can take 3 of 4 we are still in it. If we lose 3 of 4 we will be buried in the basement and all the percentages and hope wouldn’t seem to matter. If we want to get the proverbial monkey off our backs then we need to beat this Rays team. They are staggered in ways they never have before. Their offense was always suspect but the pitching held them and guided them over the years. This year it is a different story. Let’s hope we write a better ending.

The Final Word

The Blue Jays look lost from one game to the next, occasionally throwing a bone to the fans like Sunday’s slugging of the Mariners. Flashes of our potential is there. Don’t take Brandon Morrow going 8 innings yesterday as something to take lightly. It gave us a chance to rest some arms in the pen. If we can get through a couple turns through the rotation with quality starts, going deeper into games, then we might have a shot at redemption. The sun is out, the sky is blue, it’s beautiful and so are you…dear Blue Jays. Won’t you (finally) come out to play?

April 10, 2013; Detroit, MI, USA; Toronto Blue Jays second baseman Emilio Bonifacio (1) throws his helmet after he strikes out in the sixth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

With those stats leading into his prime years with us, I thought he was going to shove Izturis to the bench and run with the role of starting 2B. And this is why we all love this game because nothing is for sure. Nothing is a given…as long as that uncertainty balances out with the other teams. I don’t know what weird hex has been thrown on our team but I see that crazed look of indifference in Boni’s eye. He doesn’t look comfortable, his spirit seems crushed already. With Reyes already our rah rah guy we need someone to step up that is not named Kawsaki. Boni could have been that guy.

I see it with my eyes. There is no fight in this team. If Boni could lighten it up, steal a couple bases, flash the leather (rather than sit on it) we would be a better team today. Instead he has a slash line of .171/.213/.300. Add to that his 23 Ks against 3 walks, no stolen bases (not even an attempt at one) and you have the poster boy for our newbie underachievers (yeah you too Dickey and Buehrle). Did all the colours of Miami’s stadium cause their brains to malfunction? There were circles that lauded th fact we were getting this guy.

I expect players to be held accountable and thank you Mr. Gibbons for pinning his Boni butt to the bench (see what I did there?). Do not put him in again unless you can prove to me he is better to have in the field that Rajai DAvis or Colby Rasmus or Maicer Izturis. We need desperately to get out of this funk and Boni could still be that X-Factor. He is performing at his worst so perhaps with a little patience we will again see him at his best. a 10th man kind of sparkplug. Not Mopey McBoringson that we have seen so far. Feel free to list your favourite underachiever in the comments below.

May 1, 2013; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista (19) discusses a call at the plate with home plate umpire Bruce Dreckman at the Rogers Centre against the Boston Red Sox. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

The rest of the rotation and an average hitting team are what keeps the Mariners from moving up and challenging the A’s and potentially the Angels. When top prospects James Paxton (Canadian boy), Dannny Hultzen and Taijuan Walker rise up to replace Joe Saunders, Aaron Harang et al., this could be a team that could seriously contend for a division championship.

I figured I might as well lead with the Mariners since there is nothing new to be said about the Blue Jays. Pitching is mediocre in the rotation (7 walks by J.A. Happ last night was putrid), the old adage that hitting is contagious must also apply to NOT hitting because we don’t have one regular hitting above .255. That, my friends, is vile. Other than the bullpen, led by the perfect Casey Janssen, I am thoroughly disappointed. At least our defence seems to have settled down…there’s that…and ummm…hey Colby is up to .253. Yup…

Probable Starters:

Game 1: Felix Hernandez (3-2 .214 opp BAA) vs Ricky Romero (1st start)
Game 2: Hisashi Iwakuma (2-1, .160 opp BAA) vs R.A. Dickey (2-4, 4.50 ERA)
Game 3: Joe Saunders (2-3, 5.25 ERA) vs Brandon Morrow (0-2, 5.29 ERA)

If there is to be a saving grace for Game 1, it’s that Hernandez is 3-3 and has a 3.75 ERA against the Blue Jays lifetime. Mind you that stat is always bogus considering the players change so much from one year to the next but it’s something. If Romero can go 5 and the hitters can scrape together a few runs we may have a chance. Seattle hitters have provided their ace with 3.17 runs per game so far this year, hence the mediocre W-L record…which we mention every year it seems in regards to Hernandez.

Game 2 should be an interesting match-up. R.A. Dickey goes in with a slightly bum neck but is still cleared to play. I wish the blisters that have been bugging Iwakuma come back hardcore. Dickey should have a great shot at holding down the Mariners offence but Iwakuma has some stingy numbers folks. I mean SICK numbers. I see a pitchers duel in this one and a definite low scoring affair overall.

Game 3 should be the one truly no problem game of the lot. Joe Saunders is no longer a Diamondback, when he was at his best. He is now a Mariner who is 0-3 on the road with a bloated ERA of 12.51. Playing against your former team always seems to get players up and Brandon Morrow is no different. In 23.2 inning pitched against Seattle, Morrow has 32 Ks and a tidy 3.04 ERA. He is due for a brilliant start and this would appear to be the game to do it.

Line-Ups:

The following are the probable line-ups for both squads.

Seattle Mariners:

1. CF: Michael Saunders
2. 3B: Kyle Seager
3. DH: Kendry Morales
4. RF: Michael Morse
5. LF: Jason Bay
6. 1B: Justin Smoak
7. 2B: Dustin Ackley
8. C: Jesus Montero
9. SS: Robert Andino

Toronto Blue Jays:

1. 3B: Brett Lawrie
2. DH: Adam Lind
3. RF: Jose Bautista
4. 1B: Edwin Encarnacion
6. LF: Melky Cabrera
7. CF: Colby Rasmus
8. 2B: Maicer Izturis
9. SS: Munenori Kawasaki

I could decimate you with stats. Ok I WILL decimate you with stats: LAST in MLB in average (.228). 22nd in MLB in OPS (.690). 28th in MLB in Team ERA (4.72). 26th in MLB in BAA against (.268). Are we getting the picture? Hack the numbers to bits. The team is a mess. We needed that Boston series. Now we need this Seattle series. 2 out of 3 would be a great start since we have won only one series all season…cross your fingers. The time to worry is growing near.

The Final Word:

The all or nothing approach is failing fast. It may have worked for Chad Mottola in the minors where the pitching is more suspect but in the big leagues the pitching can leave us flailing or being too aggressive. There has been a bit more attention to longer at bats but then there are also a lot of called third strikes happening as well. I wonder if Mottola and Dwayne Murphy have the hitters confused as to what to do. Is it a room divided between both men? It is a thought. Perhaps a little shift in accountability between them may lead to results on the field. If not, I don’t see anything remotely resembling the team this group should be.

Apr 25, 2013; Bronx, NY, USA; Toronto Blue Jays manager John Gibbons (5) argues a call with umpire Jeff Kellogg (8) against the New York Yankees during the seventh inning at Yankee Stadium. Yankees won 5-3. Mandatory Credit: Debby Wong-USA TODAY Sports

Probable Starters:

Game 1: Jon Lester (4-0, 2.27 ERA) v/s Brandon Morrow (0-2, 5.27)
Game 2: Clay Buchholz (5-0, 1.19 ERA) v/s Mark Buehrle (1-1, 6.35)
Game 3: Ryan Dempster (1-2, 3.30 ERA) v/s TBA

Game 1 sees a resurgent and healthy Lester taking on forever-waiting-on-potential Morrow. I like the guy, I think he works hard and is a true team player but we are now into our fourth year of muddling and befuddling Morrow. His stuff is filthy but so is his pitch count. If he can bring himself down in pitch count and ease off on the walks (19:9 K/BB ratio), the potential for Cy Young stuff is there. But the bright side is John Lester, with the sparkling ERA and record seems to hit a bump in his last start, issuing 6 walks and 3 earned in just over 6 innings. If he is falling into the same Lester as last year then perhaps the Blue Jays could take this one.

Game 2 is a match up of perhaps the biggest surprise so far in Buchholz and perhaps the biggest pitching disappointment in Buehrle. Buchholz has not gone less than 7 innings all season. A 3:1 K/BB and a WHIP of 1.01 are the makings of an early Cy Young candidate. Buchholz has always had the potential. Is this the year he finally puts it all together? On the other end, is this the beginning of a sharp decline for Buehrle. A WHIP of 1.52 and a collective BAA of .306 is high, even for a guy who is prone to giving up lots of hits. He can’t seem to bear down and is prone to the big inning so far. Is this just a fluke? This would be a great way of proving the value of his contract. Beat their best when you are not performing at your best.

For Game 3, Ryan Dempster has done fairly well so far. Many thought he would have a sharp spike in ERA coming over to the AL from the NL but his .187 BAA has been amazing and he has struck out between 7 and 10 batters in every start so far. Strikeouts carry a lot of weight in this division and unless we curb our free swinging ways this could be a feast for Dempster. There is no starter listed as of yet for the good guys. Johnson is scheduled but they are still monitoring his progress from tricep tightness. With an off day yesterday it may mean bumping J.A. Happ up a notch to fill the spot. I have no problem with this as he has been the steadiest contributor in the rotation.

Line-Ups:

The following are the probable line-ups for both squads.

Toronto Blue Jays:

1. DH: Rajai Davis
2. SS: Munenori Kawasaki
3. RF: Jose Bautista
4. 1B: Edwin Encarnacion
5. LF: Melky Cabrera
6. C: J.P. Arencibia
7. CF: Colby Rasmus
8. 3B: Brett Lawrie
9. 2B: Maicer Izturis

Boston Red Sox:

1. CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
2. RF: Daniel Nava
3. 2B: Dustin Pedroia
4. DH: David Ortiz
5. 1B: Mike Napoli
6. LF: Mike Carp
7. C: Jarrod Saltalamacchia
8. 3B: Will Middlebrooks
9. SS: Stephen Drew

The lineup needs some semblance of stability. With Brett Lawrie working his way back in the majors and Jose Bautista seemingly over his back issues, this would be the perfect time to pull a Cito and set the lineup for a few weeks and let the players sink or swim. Fiddling with the roster has done nothing so try the other approach. With the MLB ranking of 27th in both pitching and fielding perhaps a different methodology would work…that and perhaps working the count (see Rasmus, Colby and Arencibia, J.P.).

Boston has been nothing short of amazing so far but this crew is a starter injury or Pedroia injurya away from a free fall. Can John Farrell do what Bobby Valentine couldn’t? So far the numbers speak for themselves (all numbers are MLB ranking): 3rd in Team BA, 2nd in slugging, 2nd in OPS, 6th in ERA and 1st in BAA. Them some fine numbers them is.

The Final Word:

It is great to see EE performing better as of late and thank goodness for Lawrie at third. I almost forgot how slick he was around the bag and his throwing arm is mint. Reyes and Lawrie will be a dynamite left side for the nest few years. We are getting hits here and there, home runs here and there but ultimately it is both the offence and the starting pitching that is performing below par. The starters seem to be straightening out a bit so there is hope there. Where is the hope for a team that ranks 27th in OBP, 28th in BA, 28th in WHIP, 3rd in hits allowed and 6th in walk allowed. At this pace we could challenge for worst statistical team in franchise history…but we all know there is nowhere to go but up right?