The first two instances of this debauchery that immediately come to mind occurred a little over a year ago, during spring training leading up to the 2012 season. Supposedly healthy when they reported to camp in February, before long both Sergio Santos and Dustin McGowan found themselves being held out of games. In the case of Santos, then-manager John Farrell spoke to the right hander being too amped up too early trying to impress his new team, and that they wanted to slow him down to a more normal routine. For those who have somehow forgotten, Santos would make just six appearances during the 2012 season, before months of rest – and eventually surgery – was required to repair a bum shoulder.

With Dustin McGowan, the organization declared he was suffering from a foot injury and he’d be off the mound for a few days, but that he should be 100% in time for Opening Day in April. They even went as far as to sign him to an often-ridiculed (and rightfully so) two-year extension for the 2013 and 2014 seasons. That foot injury somehow turned into a shoulder injury over the course of a couple weeks, leading some – or at least me – to question whether the foot injury ever even existed in the first place. McGowan still hasn’t thrown a pitch for the Toronto Blue Jays in the 13 months since he signed that fully guaranteed, major-league contract. Considering I haven’t read an article mentioning his rehab in a solid month or two, I wouldn’t hold my breath in anticipation of it happening any time soon, either.

The team was decimated by injuries during the season, but as all of them happened during nationally televised games – as opposed to hidden on backfields of a spring training complex – it was pointless for the organization to try and feed the masses any kind of bullshit. When Kyle Drabek throws a pitch and he immediately grabs his right elbow with a grimace on his face, you don’t need a medical degree to surmise that maybe he just injured his UCL.

February 24, 2013; Tampa, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Brett Lawrie (13) in the dugout against the New York Yankees during spring training at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The offseason and spring training leading up to 2013 is a different beast entirely. Casey Janssen underwent shoulder surgery in mid-November, and the public didn’t even know he had been having issues with it until a week after he’d already gone under the knife. It was also just supposed to be a quick cleanup of some AC joint spurs, yet Janssen was just barely ready for Opening Day 20 weeks later, and is still on a very strict pitching schedule.

During March, starting third baseman Brett Lawrie left to represent Canada in the World Baseball Classic. In an exhibition tilt against the Cincinnati Reds on March 6th, Lawrie felt a grabbing sensation on his left side and removed himself from the game. Originally it was thought he might only miss the first round, but he needed to be evaluated by the Blue Jays back in Dunedin before a more accurate prognosis could occur. An article from the Globe and Mail, written by Tyler Harper on March 7th, quoted General Manager Alex Anthopoulos as saying

“He’ll be back on Monday, he’ll get some more exams, but he said it has improved today. It’s just one of those things that you need to rest. It’s very mild, which is certainly good news, and they’re saying two-to-three weeks on the really conservative side, which means there’s obviously a chance that it’s sooner than that.”

He used the words “very mild”, and “chance it’s sooner than that” when describing the two-to-three week timeframe. In reality, Lawrie missed almost six weeks, and it’s fair to say that with a healthy Jose Reyes, it might’ve been another week until our great maple hero returned.

In addition to Lawrie, Sergio Santos again made headlines this past spring. After appearing in a few games – and looking downright filthy, forcing many to question Janssen’s grasp on the closer job – he was shut down for a few days because of some right triceps soreness. Upon his return, while he still looked pretty good, there was a little missing. His fastball was still buzzing but he struggled to command it, and his monstrous slider wasn’t quite as sharp as it was when we saw it in early March. Regardless, he was declared ready to head north, and after making three appearances on the home stand, he was once again held out of the Detroit series because of that same triceps soreness. Santos pitched in back-to-back games against the Royals on the 12th and 13th, and was then officially placed on the disabled list yesterday with, unsurprisingly, a sore right triceps.

I can only really see two possible explanations for the inaccuracies in the diagnoses I mentioned above. The first, which is more than a little farfetched, is that the Blue Jays employ a training and conditioning staff composed of morons who can’t even operate an MRI machine, let alone comprehend and analyze the results it offers. Considering the Blue Jays are a professional sports team valued by Forbes at $337 million back in 2011, and are owned by a media conglomerate valued at $18.36 billion in 2011 (according to Wikipedia), I doubt those are the kind of doctors they choose to employ.

The second, which is far more realistic, is that the organization simply doesn’t find it necessary to keep the ticket paying public in-the-know when it comes to player injuries and recoveries. They may see it as a competitive advantage issue, as if the public knows, so do opposing teams. The thing is, baseball isn’t like hockey or football – both of which are far worse when it comes to “stretching the truth” about injuries to be fair – where a certain weak spot on a player could be targeted and exploited. What could the Yankees or Red Sox possibly gain by having the knowledge that Brett Lawrie’s going to miss six weeks instead of two or three? They’re not going to alter their roster in any way, shape, or form because of that news, and if they would, they have such a poorly run and reactionary front office that you really don’t need to worry about them anyways.

My question is, how much truth does a professional sports organization owe to the public when it comes to injuries? Fans, whether it is through ticket and concession sales or TV revenue, are the gasoline that runs the engines of professional sports. If the team was a corporation, the fans are the shareholders whose investments allow for the corporation to flourish, and without those investments the corporation will fail to survive. What kind of accountability should they be held to, for, perhaps not lying, but certainly stretching and smearing the truth for their own unforeseen benefit?

April 9, 2013; Detroit, MI, USA; Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista (19) sits in dugout against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

The Lawrie situation hung with me all March and into April. Not necessarily in a “Why isn’t he back yet?” way, but as the weeks progressed and Brett, well, didn’t, I wanted to know why the team’s original timeline was so horribly far off reality. If a doctor says something will heal in two weeks and it’s still bothersome five weeks later, either a setback occurred or the injury was more serious than originally anticipated. The organization said neither of those things; simply that he was “progressing.”

What drove me to write this article are the shenanigans that are currently revolving around Jose Bautista, and I legitimately fear that this is once again a situation where the team is giving us half truths and paying us little more than lip service. Tonight will be the team’s 15th game of the year, and the sixth of which Bautista has missed due to three apparently separate issues – a sore ankle, a stiff back, and an ear infection. What bothers me even further is that the team constantly uses the “day-to-day” line. They’ll say he’s out tonight, but should be good for tomorrow and can pinch hit if needed. Manager John Gibbons has used that line on more than one occasion, and it was glaringly untrue last night. Down one run in the bottom of the ninth, both Rajai Davis and Maicer Izturis were allowed to bat, and both created outs to end the game. Not only did Bautista not pinch hit, I didn’t even see him in the dugout. Jose Reyes, he of the gnarly ankle, was seen sitting on the bench in both Chicago games, cheering on his teammates with a huge smile on his face. Where was Jose Bautista? At this point, how much trust can we place on anything the team says about injuries?

Alberto Tirado (Image via BlueJays.scout.com)

Name: Alberto Tirado

Position: Right Handed Pitcher

Date of Birth: 12/10/1994 (18)

Acquired: Signed out of the Dominican Republic as an International Free Agent in July 2011 ($300,000 USD)

High School: N/A

College: N/A

Height/Weight: 6’1”/180 lbs

Bats/Throws: R/R

Awards and Accomplishments:

• Unranked on 2012 Top 30 prospects list
• Ranked 12th on Baseball America’s Gulf Coast League Top 20 prospects list (2012)

2012 Statistics and Analysis

3-2, 48.0 IP, 32 H, 14 ER, 0 HR, 17 BB, 39 K, 1.35 GO/AO,
2.63 ERA (2.89 FIP), 1.02 WHIP, 7.31 K/9, 3.19 BB/9

Alberto Tirado had a tremendous debut with the Blue Jays as a 17 year old, spending much of the season in the Gulf Coast League before moving up late in the year and tying Appalachian League hitters in knots over three starts. He was downright dominant working in the complex league, as Tirado pitched 37 innings while striking out 34 batters. He allowed 0 home runs over that timeframe, a trend he was able to maintain in his brief 11-inning stint in Bluefield. The walk rate isn’t excellent but is very good overall, particularly when weighing how raw Tirado was – or was supposed to be – entering the season. One of the best numbers of the above line from my perspective is the 48 innings pitched, as you seldom see a teenager given that much leash in his first season. It sets him up for a potential breakout 2013 season, as regardless of where he begins the year, he could be asked to throw upwards of 80 innings, greatly increasing the attention he’ll receive.

Scouting Report

Video (via DPLBaseball.com)

Delivery Mechanics

At just 6-foot-1 and 180 pounds, size is not on the side of Alberto Tirado, and is his most frequently pointed out flaw. It’s really a non-factor for me, as the list of successful Latin American pitchers who stand 6-foot-2 or shorter is an extremely long one. Tirado makes up for his lack of height with an athletic frame and fluid actions that allow for steady mechanics. Jason Parks and the Prospect Staff at Baseball Prospectus had a glowing report on Tirado in that regard, saying he has an arm that is extremely loose and very quick, and on his delivery noted that it is “easy and smooth”. In writing his prospect ranking of the Blue Jays system, Marc Hulet of Fangraphs spoke to a talent evaluator who said the organization lowered Tirado’s arm slot from the traditional 3/4 to a low 3/4, and evidently the change has really paid off.

Pitch Arsenal Breakdown

“… the Jays might have another monster on their hands.” – Jason Parks

In the summer of 2011, the Blue Jays took a gamble on a short 16 year old right hander who was topping out around 90 miles per hour – hardly the blueprint for an elite pitching prospect. As Ben Badler of Baseball America notes, the organization clearly saw something, as within a year of being signed that right hander was already having plus-grades thrown on his fastball. The consensus among prospect sites is that Tirado’s four seam fastball now sits at 91 to 95 miles per hour, and has touched as high as 96. Not only does he have the velocity, but the pitch shows explosive life and he’s shown the ability to command it down in the zone, which, as Badler writes, is a rare combination for a pitcher so young. Parks cautions that there are questions about his capacity to maintain velocity deep into games, which ties into the lack of physicality in his build. Even so, the pitch is a weapon, and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com throws a 70 future grade on it – the highest of any talent evaluator.

Since dropping his arm slot down to low 3/4, Hulet notes that TIrado’s slider has gained a lot more depth, and is already being labeled as his second best pitch. There are some discrepancies on the subject, however, as while Parks agrees with Hulet’s assessment – and even reports he’s heard a 70 future grade thrown on the breaking ball, both Baseball America and MLB.com think more favorably of the changeup. Tirado has good arm action on the off-speed pitch, and disguises it very well by meshing with his fastball release point. From my perspective it’s like cake and pie, as regardless of which one you prefer, they’re both very good. My interpretation of the reports is that while the changeup is showing up more consistently at present, with sound development the slider could pull ahead in the future. The Baseball Prospectus prospect team suggests that when all is said and done, Tirado could have three plus-or-better pitches, leading to the pants-tightening line I quoted above.

Projection

The perfect world projection for Alberto Tirado is a solid number two starter, or a high end number three starter on a playoff caliber team.

2013 Outlook, Risk, and ETA

I mentioned above that Tirado could be poised for a breakout 2013 season, which given his breakout 2012 season would be ridiculous in and of itself if it wasn’t so very true. Tirado has the best chance of anyone in the system to pull a Roberto Osuna and leap into the top five a year from now, a statement made even more notable by the fact that of the eight prospects ahead of him on this list, none project to graduate in 2013. Having just turned 18 over the offseason and possessing only one year of professional experience, the organization will likely send him to short season ball once again. With that in mind, the Blue Jays could challenge Tirado, asking him to face lineups two-to-three times every outing, stretching him out to four or five innings per appearance. In 12 to 15 starts with Bluefield, Vancouver, or a combination of both, Tirado should push 70 to 80 innings, and may even see Lansing before the year is out. Even with a conservative inning progression from year to year, the young Dominican could be ready to throw 150+ innings in 2016, where it’s entirely possible he could finish the year in Toronto as a 21 year old. It should go without being said, but the risk here is extreme.

Anthony Alford playing for his high school baseball team (Image courtesy PerfectGame.org)

Name: Anthony Alford

Position: Centerfield

Date of Birth: 7/20/94 (18)

Acquired: Drafted in the 3rd round of the 2012 draft ($750,000 USD)

High School: Petal High School (Petal, Mississippi)

College: Football scholarship to Southern Miss., transferred after freshman year to Ole Miss.

Height/Weight: 6’2”/210 lbs

Bats/Throws: R/R

Awards and Accomplishments:

• Unranked on 2012 Top 30 prospects list (not in system)
• 2012 Rawlings 2nd Team All American
• 2012 Southeast Region 1st Team
• Rated by Baseball America as the Best Athlete in the Blue Jays system (2013)

2012 Statistics and Analysis

18 AB, .167/.250/.333 (.583 OPS), 0 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 4 SB, 2/4 BB/K

After shocking the baseball world and agreeing to terms with the Blue Jays on a split contract, Alford played in just five games with the Gulf Coast Blue Jays before heading off to Southern Miss. Even with such a small sample, Alford managed to flash some of the potential tools that have scouts dreaming on his baseball future. When you exclude his home run, Alford reached base four times; with two singles and two walks. He still managed to steal four bases, which gives a glimpse of how much of a dynamic impact he can have on a game. Unfortunately, Alford is still holding football in his heart, and until he lets it go, all Blue Jays fans are going to see are flashes and glimpses.

57/127 (44.9%), 664 YDS, 2 TD, 4 INT; 105 carries, 329 YDS (3.1 Y/C), 6 TD

I’ve included Anthony’s Southern Miss. numbers in the 2012 statistics and analysis section, and if you’re not particularly familiar with football, let me explain the above line – it’s not very good. Just as he’s a dual threat on the baseball diamond, he both throws and runs the ball from the quarterback position. Alford’s throwing numbers were awful – a 44.9% completion rate with just two touchdowns against four interceptions. He wasn’t much better on the ground, either, as despite scoring six touchdowns with his legs, he averaged just 3.1 yards per carry. Freshman quarterbacks are rarely starters, and when they are, expectations are usually low. Even so, it’s hard to be anything but disappointed with Alford’s results, particularly when you consider he led his team to a 0-12 record.

Scouting Report

Video (via Baseball Factory TV)

Swing Mechanics

Anthony Alford has one of the prettiest right handed swings I’ve seen on a high school prospect. His athleticism really shines through, as everything is done with fluidity and it all looks very smooth and natural. Alford faces the pitcher with an open stance and very high hands. As he prepares his swing, he taps his lead foot, keeps his front shoulder closed, then explodes through the ball with a short stroke and electric bat speed thanks to his quick-twitch muscles. His weight transfer is good and he rotates his hips well, though Alford does have a bit of an uppercut in his swing. Perfect Game lauds his very strong hands, as well as his ability to generate power to right-center as opposed to exclusively the pull field. The Perfect Game scouts also came away very impressed with his hand-eye coordination, and suggest that while he’ll need to alter the plane of his swing to keep the bat in the zone longer, he has the requisite vision to make the adjustments. Alford has a surprisingly advanced plate approach for someone whose sole focus hasn’t been the game of baseball.

Tools Breakdown

Alford is a true five-tool talent, as he projects to be above average or better in three tools, and average in the other two. His premier tool is his speed, as both Baseball America and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com have rated him as a 70 runner at present. Baseball players are typically timed in the 60 yard dash, and while Perfect Game doesn’t have an official time for Alford in that event, they did offer up his 40 yard dash time – the speed gauge for football prospects. Alford was clocked at 4.45 seconds, which is game-changing speed. For a player of his size (6’2”, 210 pounds), NFL teams typically like to see their running backs and wide receivers run sub-4.50 times. Of the 38 running backs invited to the recently concluded 2013 NFL Scouting Combine, Alford’s time would have ranked third best.

Power is another big part of Alford’s game, as he has tremendous bat speed and a strong, running back-like physique. While his overall rawness limits its current in-game manifestation, the tool projects to be plus down the line. Perfect Game goes as far as to suggest Alford could develop into a 30/30 player, which would obviously be outstanding outcome. Hitting and contact ability are the weakest aspects of Alford’s toolset, and are the biggest question marks moving forward. He has the athleticism and the swing to be an average hitter, but the hit tool is difficult enough to develop when your sole focus is baseball, let alone when you take six months away from the sport every year. Unless he gives up on football, it’s difficult to see Alford making the transition from athlete to baseball player and fully developing his offensive approach.

In the American high school ranks there’s a lot of crossover between football and baseball, as often times quarterbacks with an outstanding arm will find themselves working off a pitching mound as well. That’s not the case with Alford, as despite playing the quarterback position he doesn’t have the throwing mechanics or arm strength of a traditional pocket passer, he instead runs an option offense. Both Perfect Game and MLB.com grade the tool out as average, but it should be more than sufficient in centerfield. Alford’s athleticism gives him the opportunity to be a plus defender in center, but there are a number of adjustments and improvements he must make to achieve that goal. His reads are very hit and miss, as often times he’ll take a step in then turn and run for a ball heading over his head, or vise versa. Alford also needs to better set up his throws, as he has a tendency to wait back on balls as opposed to charging and getting momentum behind them.

Projection

The perfect world projection for Anthony Alford is an All Star centerfielder, with a play style similar to that of B.J. Upton or Grady Sizemore.

2013 Outlook, Risk, and ETA

As a potential All Star at a premium defensive position, Alford has one of the highest ceilings of any prospect in the system. Unfortunately, he also carries the greatest risk. The split contract allowing Alford to play college football got him signed, but the baseball community as a whole questions just how far he’ll fall behind on the development curve with so much of his time away from the diamond. The situation was muddied ever further this past fall, as Alford was arrested on the Southern Miss. campus, was released from his scholarship to the school, and then transferred to Ole Miss. From my understanding, the way college football works is that if a player transfers schools, he’s ineligible to play in games the next season. Whether or not that helps the Blue Jays is up for debate, but it’s another twist in an already complicated situation.

In terms of a possible assignment, I’m really not sure where Alford will start the 2013 season. He missed fall instructs because of football, so you almost have to assume the organization will want to hold him back in extended spring training so they can keep a close eye on his development for a few extra months. At the same time, they only have Alford for so long every year, so perhaps they want to maximize his game exposure and assign him to full season ball. Bluefield, Vancouver, and Lansing are all realistic scenarios, and as of yet the Blue Jays haven’t revealed their hand regarding their plans for the talented centerfielder.

Nessy during Minor League Spring Training 2012 (Image courtesy Daniel Jarrett and MLBProspectPortal.com)

Name: Santiago Nessy

Position: Catcher

Date of Birth: 12/08/1992 (20)

Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent in July 2009 ($750,000 USD)

High School: N/A

College: N/A

Height/Weight: 6’2”/230 lbs

Bats/Throws: R/R

Awards and Accomplishments:

• Unranked on 2012 Top 30 prospects list
• Baseball America 2012 Appalachian League #10 prospect
• 2012 Appalachian League Top Defensive Catcher

2012 Statistics and Analysis

182 AB, .236/.305/.434 (.739 OPS), 9 2B, 0 3B, 9 HR, 26 RBI, 0 SB, 16/54 BB/K

Like the number twelve prospect Christian Lopes, Nessy opened the year with Bluefield before receiving a late season promotion to Low-A Vancouver. He handled Appalachian League pitching very well over the first two months, amassing a .256/.320/.456 line across 45 games. His eight home runs over that timeframe led the team, and his 200 ISO was third among players with 100-or-more at-bats. Those numbers really speak to the type of game Nessy plays, as power is his strength and he knows how to use it. His cup of coffee in the Northwest League didn’t go quite as swimmingly, though it would be unwise to make too many judgments based upon just six games. The package comes with some swing and miss, as Nessy has a tendency to load up and attack the baseball regardless of the count or situation, and that is something that will need to be working on sooner rather than later. More than a strikeout per game in short season ball is disconcerting, particularly when the walk rate is average at best.

Scouting Report

Video (via MLBProspectPortal.com)

Swing Mechanics

Catchers are often portrayed as short and stout, and while Nessy has a solid build at 230-plus pounds, he’s anything but short, standing 6-foot-2 and still growing. Despite a slightly hunched over stance at the plate, he fully utilizes his size during the swing. With such long levers he’s able to generate tremendous bat speed on a good swing plane, but his path has bit too much length. The problem coincides with Nessy’s over-aggressiveness. Matt Eddy of Baseball America describes Nessy’s plate approach as “He takes a wild hack and tries to pull every pitch he offers at…” At just 20 years old, Santiago still has time to clean things up and calm things down, but it’s something his coaches will really need to focus on, starting this year.

Tools Breakdown

When you look at Nessy’s size and swing, your mind immediately jumps to “offensively-oriented catcher”. It’s a fair first impression, but in reality, he has a whole lot more to offer. Nessy was named the Appalachian League’s top defensive catcher in 2012, which is something that carries a lot of merit considering it’s voted upon by the managers and coaches. According to Matt Eddy of Baseball America, those managers lauded his blocking ability, level of effort, and ability to call a game. Furthermore, he shows impeccable leadership qualities, and has made a concerted effort to become bilingual in order to better communicate with both his US and Latin American pitchers. His arm has been graded out as a plus tool, and he threw out 33% of potential base stealers in 2012. He can become over anxious at times, popping out of his crouch early and causing his throws to tail off towards the first base side of second. In the video above you can observe that Nessy’s throwing hand will occasionally drift out while he’s receiving the ball, and as Blue Jays fans have seen with J.P. Arencibia, that’s the best way to get your fingers broken. That hand needs to stay tucked behind his right leg until the ball is hitting the glove. Overall, Nessy has the potential to be an above average defender behind the plate, as long as he doesn’t grow too big. Marc Hulet of Fangraphs attributes much of his defensive improvement to his work with Sal Fasano.

While the defensive praise is entirely warranted, Nessy’s most revered tool is his power. He has the size and strength, the leverage, and the bat speed to rip balls over the fences of any park. He does it without relying upon an uppercut either, as Nessy’s swing angle is low. Baseball America grades the tool out as a future plus, but there are questions about how much that raw power will translate in-game. His hit tool and contact ability have a long way to go, as Nessy’s over-aggressiveness and the length of his swing create a lot of holes and weaknesses for opposing pitchers to exploit. I haven’t read a single evaluation that is willing to put a future average grade on the tool, but Nessy doesn’t need to hit .270 to be a valuable starting catcher. He’s not going to carry an offense on his back, but he won’t be the worst hitter in the lineup, either.

Projection

The perfect world projection for Santiago Nessy would be a well rounded, everyday catcher; second division starter.

2013 Outlook, Risk, and ETA

Nessy’s progress this spring will be an interesting situation to monitor, as his 2013 assignment is still very much up in the air. With three years of short season ball (2010/DSL, 2011/GCL, and 2012/APP) under his belt, the organization would without a doubt love to send him to Lansing where he could continue to work with pitchers like Roberto Osuna and Daniel Norris, whom he caught last season. On the other hand, he played just six games for Vancouver. My gut feeling is that he will find himself in full season ball when the calendar flips to April, and it should prove to be a challenge. The Midwest League almost always features a strong crop of pitching prospects, particularly those who know how to control the strike zone and can manipulate a breaking ball. Nessy has had problems with over aggressiveness, so calming his approach down will need to be a major focus of the Lugnuts coaching staff. As an oversized catcher with questions around his ability to make contact, the risk with Nessy is enormous. Catchers tend to develop slowly, so even if he progresses as hoped, 2016 might be the earliest possible time of arrival in Toronto.

Feb 18, 2013; Dunedin, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Esmil Rogers (32) during photo day at Florida Auto Exchange Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

It was an underwhelming name given what had been talked about, but in reality, getting any serviceable major league player for a lame-duck, seemingly average manager should be considered a win. General Manager Alex Anthopoulos had his hands tied, yet he managed to turn a piece of no consequence into an asset with marketable value. Two weeks later, Anthopoulos cashed that value out, flipping the recently acquired Aviles (plus Yan Gomes) to the Cleveland Indians for right handed pitcher Esmil Rogers.

When you look past the 5.95 ERA the 27 year old has compiled over parts of four seasons in the major leagues, Rogers is a very intriguing arm. It must be remembered that a vast majority of his career innings came in a Colorado Rockies uniform, and when you start neutralizing the environmental factors that were out of Rogers’ control, his numbers have a much nicer sheen. For his career, he’s accumulated 215 strikeouts in 237.2 innings, while registering a 4.21 FIP and 4.06 xFIP.

Cleveland obviously saw something in the Dominican Republic native, as they picked up the right hander for pennies on the dollar in early June. We may never know whether it was because he escaped Coors Field or because he was freed from one of the worst run organizations in Major League Baseball, but Rogers turned his season (and career) around in the American League. In 25.2 innings with Colorado before the trade, Rogers pitched to an 8.06 ERA with a 29/18 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In 53 innings with Cleveland, Rogers compiled a 3.06 ERA with 54 strikeouts, walking just 12. He gained the trust of then-manager Manny Acta down the stretch, as he registered six holds in an Indians uniform, including five in September alone.

In a healthy Blue Jays bullpen, Rogers likely wouldn’t be heavily used in the final innings of a close game. However, the two men currently slated for those duties – Sergio Santos and Casey Janssen – are both coming off shoulder surgeries of varying degrees, and regardless of the praise being heaped on both during the spring, it will be a situation that needs to be closely monitored. If the rebirth in Cleveland is to be believed, Rogers could be one of the pitchers asked to step up in a time of need, and with that in mind, I decided to take a closer look at what exactly happens when Esmil Rogers takes the mound.

Using the PitchFX data on Fangraphs, it’s quickly surmised that Rogers is a power pitcher. His fastball has averaged 94.6 miles per hour over his career, and it was actually a notch higher in 2012 while serving exclusively in the bullpen. Not only does he have an extremely hard fastball, but he uses it often – 63% of the pitches he’s thrown in his major league career have been some variation of fastball – four seam, two seam, or cutter.

There are few things I love more than a big fastball, but the real treasure in Rogers’ arsenal is an evolving slider. I say evolving, because as a prospect Rogers was better known for his curveball and changeup. Neither pitch proved to be a major league caliber offering, and in their stead Rogers has thrown his slider at an increasing rate. In 2010, the slider accounted for just 22.9% of his total pitches thrown. In 2011 and 2012, that number increased to 29.1% and 33.7% respectively.

The slider has become a weapon, particularly with two strikes. In 2012, 129 plate appearances ended with a Rogers slider. Of those 129, 49 ended with a strikeout, and just one with a walk. Hitters didn’t have much luck even when they managed to put the ball in play, as Rogers had an excellent 51.3% groundball rate with the slider. The end result: hitters had a .197 wOBA and 28 wRC+ against the breaking ball. While seemingly impressive, data like this doesn’t carry a whole lot of weight on its own. To gain a better perspective on Rogers’ slider, I chose to compare the pitch to three other sliders. The first two are, in my opinion, the best on the roster – those belonging to Sergio Santos and Brandon Morrow. The third is that of former Blue Jay Henderson Alvarez, whose slider was a topic of frequent discussion and angst during his tumultuous 2012 season. All data is from Fangraphs.com.

Usage and characteristics of sliders, data from Fangraphs.com

The first thing that jumped out at me from this table is, wow, a healthy Sergio Santos has an absolutely dynamite slider. His numbers are from the 2011 season in which he played the full year, and from top to bottom, they are jaw dropping. The only thing he doesn’t do well with it is generate ground balls, but when you’re running up a swinging strike rate of 34%, it’s not particularly important. 100 plate appearances ended with a slider, and 73 of those came by way of the strikeout. Looking past Santos, however, you can see that Rogers’ slider compares favorably to that of Brandon Morrow. They have similar velocities, groundball rates, and swinging strikes percentages, but Rogers takes the edge in both control and movement which gives him the second highest pitch value of the four sliders listed. Unsurprisingly, Alvarez ranked last or second-to-last in each of the categories, which resulted in easily the worst pitch value of the quartet.

Using the table above I think it’s fair to say that Esmil Rogers has an above average slider, and when you combine that breaking ball with the aforementioned explosive fastball, you have a reliever potentially capable of handling late inning, high leverage situations. Whether or not manager John Gibbons trusts him in that role will greatly depend upon his ability to locate, as prior to his second half resurgence with the Indians, walks were always a problem for the right hander. Most of the roster spots and roles for the 2013 Blue Jays have been locked up for months, but the bullpen still has some fluidity to it, as a few pitchers are coming back from surgery while others are out of options. Rogers will get his first chance to impress the new skipper on Saturday afternoon, as he’s scheduled to throw an inning against the Detroit Tigers. Keep an eye on that slider.

Christian Lopes playing for Team USA (Image via MLBDraftCountdown.wordpress.com)

Name: Christian Lopes

Position: Second Base

Date of Birth: 10/01/1992 (20)

Acquired: Drafted in the 7th round of the 2011 draft ($800,000 USD)

High School: Edison High School (Huntington Beach, CA)

College: Had commitment to USC

Height/Weight: 6’0”/185 lbs

Bats/Throws: R/R

Awards and Accomplishments:

• Unranked on 2012 Top 30 prospects list
• 2011 Rawlings 1st Team All American
• 2011 California All-Region 1st Team

2012 Statistics and Analysis

223 AB, .278/.339/.462 (.801 OPS), 17 2B, 6 3B, 4 HR, 33 RBI, 6 SB, 17/40 BB/K

After signing very late in the summer of 2011, Christian Lopes made his professional debut this past June with the Bluefield Blue Jays. The roster was stacked with prospect talent, but Lopes was one of the few to truly shine in short season ball. Despite a late season promotion to Vancouver, he still led the team with 16 doubles (the second place hitter was Jacob Anderson with 10) and 5 triples. From a middle infielder, that type of in-game power is excellent to see, particularly at such a young age. While more situational and less talent dependent, Lopes also led the team in runs scored (33) and runs batted in (29). The rate stats understandably took a bit of a dip after the promotion to Low-A, but that’s to be expected from a 19 year old playing against a lot of college-age competition.

Scouting Report

Video (via MLBProspectPortal.com)

Swing Mechanics

Lopes faces the pitcher with an open stance, allowing him to track pitches well as they approach the zone. He’s very quiet at the plate, holding his hands low before gearing up for the swing. He double taps his front foot – something that may eventually need to be cleaned up – before striding and spinning his hips with nice weight transfer. Marc Hulet of Fangraphs noticed that in addition to keeping a low base, Lopes isn’t afraid to hog the plate, standing very close. While this gives him an edge in covering the outer half – and is likely the reason Lopes is so good at using the opposite field, Hulet fears it’s going to make him susceptible to the hard stuff inside. His bat speed is good, but as he faces better fastballs in the upper levels he may be forced to either cheat on the swing or make an adjustment to his footing – preferably the latter. Baseball America noted that Lopes has a tendency to tinker with his swing mechanics a little too much.

Tools Breakdown

Christian Lopes may be best described as a jack of all trades but a master of none, which in reality truly defines the second base position. Second base prospects are few and far between, as most second baseman were originally shortstops that didn’t have the defensive chops to stick, the speed to move to center, or the offense to move to third. The best tool Lopes has to offer is his bat which, according to both Baseball America and Marc Hulet of Fangraphs, projects to be somewhere between average and plus. He showed impressive plate discipline for a teenager, and Lopes has good bat speed and a short swing that is very quick to the ball. The power potential is a notch below, as his already mature body limits the ceiling to fringe-average – or a 45 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale. Fringe-average power from a middle infielder is more than acceptable, as every team in baseball would love to have a second baseman that possesses an ability to make good contact while launching 30-plus doubles and 10-15 home runs annually.

The move off of shortstop was necessitated for two reasons. Lopes’ arm is an average tool at best, and while that is satisfactory making the short throws from second, it’s simply not good enough to make the long throws from deep in the hole between third and short, particularly when your momentum is moving away from first base. Secondly, Lopes has some quickness to his game, but according to Baseball America, his speed has degraded from average to below average since his early years in high school. That’s a severely limiting factor at shortstop, particularly when a player like Lopes has a tendency to sit back and wait for balls, which he reportedly did. Both Baseball America and Fangraphs report that Lopes’ hands are good and his defensive actions are smooth, so he could develop into a solid defensive second baseman. There’s no questioning his competitiveness, and he shows natural instincts around the diamond.

Projection

The perfect world projection for Christian Lopes would be an everyday second baseman; second division starter.

2013 Outlook, Risk, and ETA

As I covered in the 2012 statistics and analysis section, Lopes had an excellent professional debut and it has set him up for a potentially huge second year. Despite just a 10 game cup of coffee in Vancouver to close out last season, I fully expect Lopes to be given a full season assignment out of spring training. Lansing has a glaring hole at second base, and like the rest of us, I’m sure the Blue Jays front office would love to see what Lopes could do with 500 or more plate appearances. He’s just 20 years old and has a lot of development and refinement to go, but I’m surprisingly comfortable in classifying Lopes as just medium-high risk. His skillset is the type that should handle the lower minor leagues quite well, so he may not face a true challenge until he rises up to the Double-A level, perhaps as soon as the summer of 2014. Realistically, Lopes could be a September call up at the end of the 2015 season as a 22 year old, which would be a huge victory for both the amateur draft and minor league development branches of the front office.

Barreto was the highest rated international free agent in 2012, and agreed to terms with the Blue Jays on July 2nd (Photo by Alexander Mendoza)

Name: Franklin Barreto

Position: Shortstop

Date of Birth: March 1996

Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent in July 2012 ($1,450,000 USD)

High School: N/A

College: N/A

Height/Weight: 5’9”/175 lbs

Bats/Throws: R/R

Awards and Accomplishments:

• Ranked by Baseball America as the #1 International Free Agent (July 2012)
• MVP of Pan-American 14U Championship (July 2010)
• MVP of Pan-American 12U tournament (September 2008)
• Corporacion Criolltos Venezuelan Athlete of the Year (2008)

2012 Statistics and Analysis

As with all 16 year old International Free Agents, Barreto’s professional contract was for the 2013 season, so his action with the Blue Jays was limited to the fall instructional league – where he seldom suited up for actual games.

Scouting Report

Video (via MLB Advanced Media)

Swing Mechanics

Barreto stands at the plate with a narrow base, and Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs – who watched him work in the fall instructs – describes him as having occasional awkwardness to his swing, but attributes that to the ongoing physical development of the 16 year old. Ben Badler of Baseball America saw Barreto extensively in the months leading up to July 2nd, and was impressed with his quick hands and short, compact stroke. Barreto recognizes pitches well, works deep into counts, but avoids the strikeout thanks to his inherent ability to make contact and put the ball in play. His sound approach and quick swing allow him to smash line drives all over the field.

Tools Breakdown

Franklin Barreto is a dual threat offensively, as his bat and raw speed allow him to be a dynamic weapon both at the plate and on the bases. Speed is at a premium for the young Venezuelan, as both Badler at McDaniel threw out 70 grades on the tool. McDaniel timed Barreto at 3.75 seconds to first on a bunt, which is exceptional for a right handed hitter. He will likely lose some speed as he moves into his twenties, but the potential is there for 40 or more stolen bases. The hitting mechanics I detailed above have allowed for scouts to throw 60’s on Barreto’s hit tool potential. His exceptional speed should allow him to maintain a healthy and above average BABIP, and Badler suggests the combination of the two tools could result in a .300 hitter.

The most frequently discussed negative aspect of Barreto’s game is his size – or lack thereof. He stands just 5-foot-9, and despite weighing only 175 pounds, Badler describes him as strong and physically mature already. That isn’t to say he won’t get bigger – he has yet to turn 17 – but the probability of him growing another three or four inches and packing on twenty pounds of muscle is highly doubtful. This has an impact on his power projection, as Barreto will have to rely more on his swing than his body to generate home runs. Even so, both Badler and McDaniel believe he could develop average power due in large part to his line drive tendencies, and any team would happily take 15 to 20 home runs from an up-the-middle position.

Barreto signed as a shortstop, and the Blue Jays will give him every opportunity to maximize his value and stick there, but you can probably count the number of 5-foot-9 starting shortstops in the major leagues on one hand; I’m not going to go through them all, but the only two I can think of are Rafael Furcal and Jimmy Rollins. Working against him even further is what Badler and McDaniel describe as “questionable footwork and defensive actions”. McDaniel has an excellent line regarding his size and the viability of remaining at shortstop; “Given Barreto’s age, there are a lot of things that can go wrong, so you have to assume he isn’t the exception to the rule.”

If he can’t remain at shortstop, second base and center field are the next best options. His 60 arm and 70 speed would allow him to develop into a very good defensive center fielder, and Baseball America has frequently offered up a Shane Victorino comp if such a move occurs. For second base to be a realistic, Barreto would still need to greatly improve his footwork – as well as get used to having his back to the infield when turning a double play – but the overall defensive demands are lower than that of shortstop. If he sticks in the middle infield, Baseball America has tossed a Rafael Furcal (with less defense) comp on his ceiling. For Blue Jays fans, either outcome would be outstanding.

Projection

The perfect world projection for Franklin Barreto would be an everyday shortstop who hits at the top of the lineup; first division starter.

2013 Outlook, Risk, and ETA

When a 16 year old is signed on July 2nd, it’s usually just accepted that the best case scenario for a debut is the complex league. Often times they don’t even reach that point, as the DSL – the Dominican Summer League – is viewed as less of a culture shock to the prospect. That may not be the case with Barreto, as it’s already been suggested that he could open the season with Bluefield thanks to his extremely advanced bat skills. Without a doubt it would be a big adjustment, but there’s something to be said for challenging prospects as opposed to letting them rake at a level far too easy for them. The risk attached to a 16 year old with no professional experience is astronomical, and trying to determine even a rough ETA is a futile task at this point. If I had to guess I’d say 2017, but in reality it could be anywhere between 2016 and 2020, if he even makes it to Toronto at all.

Mitch Nay poses at the 6th annual Power Showcase, representing Arizona in the home run derby that took place in Chase Field.

Name: Mitch Nay

Position: Third Base

Date of Birth: 9/20/1993 (19)

Acquired: Selected in the supplemental 1st round of the 2012 draft ($1,000,000 USD)

High School: Hamilton High School (Chandler, Arizona)

College: Had commitment to Arizona State

Height/Weight: 6’3”/195 lbs

Bats/Throws: R/R

Awards and Accomplishments:

• 2012 Rawlings 2nd Team All American
• 2012 West Region 1st team
• 2012 Arizona Baseball Player of the Year (presented by Gatorade)

2012 Statistics and Analysis

32 G, .380/.520/.837 (1.357 OPS), 33 R, 11 HR, 31 RBI

Nay didn’t suit up for any Blue Jays affiliates last summer, so the options for the 2012 statistics and analysis section are rather limited. As with most high school players, finding an accurate and comprehensive statistical line for Nay’s senior high school year proved difficult, and the above is the best I could find. You can’t look too much into the batting average for contact ability, as good hitting prospects will always crush high school pitching, and we don’t have the strikeout total to see what was occurring when he wasn’t stroking a base hit. What is very clear is that Nay has all kinds of power, as evident by his 11 home runs in 32 games. Incredibly, he managed this despite a horrible start to the season, during which scouts could visually identify that Nay was pressing too much while trying to carry his team on his back. The numbers are actually a step below his breakout performance as a junior in 2010/2011 (.495 with 14 home runs).

Scouting Report

Video

Additional video via ESPN.com:

http://espn.go.com/high-school/baseball/video/clip?id=7887911

Swing Mechanics

Nay sets himself with a very wide base at the plate in a slightly crouched and open stance, with his hands locked low. He takes a substantial stride when preparing to swing, a stride that Perfect Game describes as out of line. Instead of moving straight forward towards the pitcher, his stride opens his front shoulder. While that gives tremendous power potential to his pull field, it results in a long swing and makes him extremely susceptible to pitches that break away, such as a slider or cutter from a right handed pitcher. There is no questioning the bat speed, however, as Perfect Game gives him a plus grade in that department and applauds the extension he generates with his arms.

Tools Breakdown

The raw power is what makes Mitch Nay the prospect that he is. In addition to the mechanics mentioned above, Keith Law speaks to Nay’s excellent hip rotation which helps boost the power even further. Law and Baseball America are in agreement that he has plus power potential because of his natural gifts, but Perfect Game takes it a step further: “He can take the ball out of the park deep in the alleys and doesn’t need to square up the ball to get it to travel. The ball makes ‘that’ sound according to scouts when Nay squares it up, though, and that’s a sound one doesn’t hear frequently, even on top prospects.” Furthermore, Nay is still young and has room to add more muscle to his frame as he develops, which could continue to augment the power, should his hit tool be accommodating.

As with most young power hitters, that’s where the questions arise. The mechanics that create so much torque in Nay’s swing also negatively impact his plate coverage, and while he was able to get away with it at the high school level, professional level pitching is another beast. All publications I have read are in agreement that Nay is going to need to make adjustments moving forward, and the debate is whether or not he’ll hit enough to allow the power to blossom in-game. Thankfully for Blue Jays fans, Nay is an excellent student (4.30 high school GPA) and has baseball bloodlines (his grandfather, Lou Klimchock, spent parts of 12 seasons in the major leagues), so he should be very receptive to instruction. It would be difficult to project anything more than average potential on the hit tool at this point, and without any professional reviews, even that might be a tad optimistic.

The defensive reports have similar question marks, as while Nay is currently listed as a third baseman, there are already suggestions he may eventually move to right field. Keith Law of ESPN believes it’s a forgone conclusion; however Baseball America and Perfect Game think he could stick at the hot corner if he works on improving his hands and footwork, as he’s currently far too reliant upon his plus-calibre arm to bail him out of mistakes (PG estimates his infield velocity at 90 mph). Nay has below average straight line speed and will never be much of an asset on the base paths.

Projection

The perfect world projection for Mitch Nay would be an everyday third baseman; second division starter.

2013 Outlook, Risk, and ETA

Nay dealt with a pair of injuries last season – a broken hamate bone in his left wrist and a lower back strain – but with those in the rear view mirror he should be set to make his professional debut in short season ball this summer. As a 19 year old, I don’t expect the organization will force him to the Gulf Coast League. Matt Dean, Christian Lopes, and Dwight Smith Jr. were among the 2011 big-bonus draft picks that didn’t suit up until the following year – and did so with Bluefield – and I suspect the trend will continue with Nay. There’s no questioning his power, but his baseball skills definitely need a lot of refinement and without a doubt it’s going to take some time. The hit questions I detailed above immediately thrust Nay into the high risk category, and even if the development goes as smooth as can be realistically expected, it’s hard to see an ETA earlier than the stretch run of the 2016 season.

September 26, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Josh Johnson (55) pitches in the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

My elation was palpable when I first heard about the trade going down between Miami and Toronto. I had been playing Call of Duty with a friend of mine, and during a food intermission I received a text message from him asking what I thought of the Blue Jays trade. I had no idea what he was talking about, so I hastily jumped on my computer to check things out, expecting some minor transaction. Instead, I saw Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Josh Johnson. I’ve been driving the “trade for Josh Johnson” bus since last summer, so to see my dream become a reality left me literally speechless. Thankfully, voices aren’t needed on Twitter, and I was able to express my thoughts on the trade without anyone else having to hear my maniacal laughter.

Now into the month of February, we’re closer to Opening Day than we are to the trade itself, which happened back on November 19th. Time is very important in the world of baseball, as while our immediate reaction may be one thing, it could be something entirely different upon later reflection. Now, that isn’t to say I think the Marlins trade and acquiring Josh Johnson was bad – completely the opposite in fact – but I have been able to look a bit deeper into Josh Johnson and noticed some unsettling trends.

A breakdown of Josh Johnson’s pitches from 2009 to 2012 (Data via FanGraphs.com)

In the table above, you can see the breakdown of Josh Johnson’s pitches over the last four seasons. For each year, the left column is the number of pitches thrown of that type, and the right column is the percentage of the total pitches thrown that year. The five pitches Johnson has thrown are four seam fastballs (FA), two seam fastballs (FT), changeups (CH), sliders (SL), and curveballs (CU). The 2011 totals are obviously significantly lower, as he worked just over 60 innings that season.

A couple of things immediately jump out at you from this table. First, after barely throwing any early in his career, Johnson has begun spinning a curveball. After using the pitch literally zero times in 2010, he threw it over 8% of the time in 2011, and a whopping 15.3% of the time last season. The volume of changeups and sliders has remained relatively consistent through the years, so clearly the increase in curveballs has come at the expense of fastballs, which is the second thing that really caught my eye. Johnson has always been known for his big fastball, and while he’s not phasing it out by any means, it’s certainly puzzling that over the course of four seasons he’d cut his fastball usage by nearly 20%. Continuing to use FanGraphs’ PitchFX data, I delved further into the disappearing fastball, seeking some kind of logical explanation, which I summarized in the table below.

A breakdown of Josh Johnson’s fastballs from 2009 through 2012 (Data via FanGraphs.com)

The first column, total fastball percentage, is simply the combination of his four seam and two seam fastballs. The average fastball velocity calculation is inclusive of both types of fastballs, while the peak velocity is the hardest pitch he threw during that season. The third and fourth columns are his opponents’ wOBA against the two different fastballs. Like the previous table, there are a couple of points to take away from this data. First, since the 2009 season, Johnson’s average and peak fastball velocity have dropped by 2 miles per hour, and in an attempt to protect himself, he’s thrown it less and less every year. Second, his two seam fastball is, well, it’s just not a very good pitch. Opponents have hit it better each and every year since 2009. Fastballs are inherently easier to hit than breaking balls, so their opponents’ wOBA is always a little high, but the numbers between 2011 and 2012 are downright embarrassing. To put the .432 and .466 numbers into perspective, Albert Pujols has a .425 wOBA over his entire career. Yikes.

The other trend I’ve noticed while closely examining Josh Johnson’s PitchFX data is more puzzling than negative.

Josh Johnson’s release point from 2008 to 2012 (Data via FanGraphs.com)

If numbers are more your thing, here’s a table looking exclusively at Johnson’s four seam fastball, and the vertical height it was released from.

The vertical release point on Josh Johnson’s fastball from 2008 to 2012 (Data via BrooksBaseball.net)

The information for the figure came from the Game Charts feature on FanGraphs, while the data for the table came from Brooks Baseball. Regardless of which display you prefer, it’s pretty clear that over the past five years, Josh Johnson has been lowering his release point further and further. Beyond velocities, I usually don’t dig into the world of PitchFX too much, but I still thought this was extremely peculiar. Seeking answers, I asked the person whose opinion on baseball I value higher than anyone else’s: Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus.

@kylematte Lots of possible reasons, which include comfort, inducing more movement, more command, etc.

— Jason Parks (@ProfessorParks) January 31, 2013

I felt it was a pretty good answer, and while I can’t speak to the comfort explanation, we have the statistics to at least investigate the latter two possibilities; movement and command.

While you can’t accurately measure command – since no one but the pitcher and catcher knows exactly what he’s trying to do – you can use a pitcher’s walk rate to get some idea of their overall control. In Johnson’s case, the stat sheet doesn’t tell us a whole lot. His walk rate has always been very good, and while it has increased from 2010 to 2012 (from 2.35 to 2.98 to 3.06 BB/9), it decreased from 2008 to 2010 (from 2.78 to 2.50 to 2.35 BB/9). In summary: more likely statistical variance than anything meaningful.

Measuring movement is a bit more interesting, and in a quick back and forth, the Professor and I agreed that dropping an arm slot (i.e. lowering the release point) should generate more horizontal movement. Since Josh Johnson has established his slider as a dominant pitch, and the sample size is strong in each of the years in question, I decided to look at the horizontal movement on his breaking ball and see what I could learn.

The horizontal movement of Josh Johnson’s slider from 2008 through 2012 (Data via FanGraphs.com and BrooksBaseball.net)

Unlike the walk rate, there’s definitely something here. While there’s a drop from 2011 to 2012, the horizontal movement in the other four years is continuously increasing. If you look at the Brooks Baseball numbers, his slider had 33.2% more movement in 2011 than it did in 2008, and even in 2012, it has 14.4% more horizontal movement than 2008. With that being said, it’s impossible to truly conclude anything from this information, despite the noticeable trend.
One might argue that Johnson has intentionally dropped his arm slot over the years in order to better utilize his strikeout pitch, but there’s another side to that coin. Johnson’s injury history is long and well documented (and if you aren’t aware, since entering the league in 2006, he’s spent time on the disabled list with some kind of arm injury every year except for 2010 and 2012). As the declining fastball velocity suggests, it’s entirely possible that Johnson – and his shoulder – has worn down through his 20’s, and he can no longer elevate his arm to full extension thousands of times every summer. Instead of choosing to drop his arm slot to improve his slider, Johnson simply doesn’t have the arm strength to come over the top and rifle bullets at 98-plus miles per hour like he did at 25, and the improvement in horizontal movement is just a byproduct of that decline.

When I suggested this to Jason Parks, he said it was very possible, but obviously neither he nor I have any idea what is going on with Josh Johnson’s body. The only people who know the real reason behind the drop in arm slot are his managers, pitching coaches, trainers, catchers, and Josh himself, and I don’t see any of them telling the public what’s up any time soon.

I started this off by saying my thoughts had changed now that I’ve had time to look at the big picture, and what I meant by that was how I see the future unfolding for Josh Johnson in a Blue Jays uniform. Immediately following the trade, I wanted the front office to lock Johnson up for the next four or five years, even if it cost 15-plus million per season to do it. Now, I’m very happy to just wait and see how the 2013 season plays out, particularly after discovering the trends I mentioned above.

The R.A. Dickey trade certainly played a big part in that, as between Dickey, Morrow, Buehrle, and Romero, Toronto has four starters under control for the next three seasons. If Johnson returns to his 5-6 WAR form and helps carry the Blue Jays to the post season with 40,000+ fans in the seats cheering him on, an extension could and should be offered. On the other hand, if he struggles to adjust to the AL East or goes down with injuries, the organization can simply make a 1 year qualifying offer. In the latter situation, we either get Johnson for a second year on a reasonable deal, or we get a first round draft pick and hand the fifth spot over to J.A. Happ, Drew Hutchison, or Sean Nolin. Patience and caution appears to be the name of the game in dealing with Josh Johnson, and more than ever I’m happy we have one of the most rational and financially sound general managers in the game steering the ship.

John Stilson was a third round back in 2011, and reached as high as Double-A in his debut season (Image courtesy the TexarkanaGazette,com)

Name: John Stilson

Position: Right Handed Pitcher

Date of Birth: 07/28/1990 (22)

Acquired: Selected in the 3rd round of the 2011 draft ($500,000 USD)

High School: Texas High School (Texarkana, TX)

College: Texas A&M

Height/Weight: 6’3”/200 lbs

Bats/Throws: R/R

Awards and Accomplishments:

• Ranked 25th on 2012 top 30 prospects list

2012 Statistics and Analysis

5-4, 104.1 IP, 110 H, 45 ER, 8 HR, 42 BB, 91 K
3.88 ERA (3.78 FIP), 1.46 WHIP, 7.85 K/9, 3.62 BB/9, 1.00 GO/AO

The 2012 season was Stilson’s professional debut, and you can really break the year down into three segments. From April 5th through May 12th, Stilson was on a very strict pitch count. He was coming off a major shoulder injury, and as such the organization didn’t want to push him too hard. In those eight starts, he completed the fifth only once, allowing eight earned runs while striking out 25 in 29.1 IP (2.45 ERA). From May 18th through July 27th, the leash was eased out and Stilson would complete five innings in 11 of 14 starts. In those 64 innings, he allowed 30 earned runs while striking out 54 batters (4.22 ERA). Fatigue was clearly becoming an issue as he allowed 13 hits and nine earned runs over his final seven innings, so the Blue Jays allowed him to finish the season in the bullpen; the third segment. Making eight relief appearances, Stilson struck out 12 and allowed seven earned runs over 11 innings pitched (5.73 ERA). The numbers as a whole aren’t earth shattering, but when you attribute fatigue to some of his late season failings, the results are far more encouraging for the long term.

Scouting Report

Video (via Kevin Gray, graymatter11.com)

Delivery Mechanics

Throughout his college career, John Stilson had an extremely violent delivery. Not only was his arm action rough, his stride landed on the third base side of the mound, forcing him to throw across his body and cause even more strain on his arm. Since being drafted by the Blue Jays, the organization’s minor league coaches have made an effort to clean up his mechanics. Stilson’s stride is squarer to the plate, and while his arm action is improved, it still has visible effort. The alterations did have negative impacts, however, as Stilson’s velocity has fallen back a notch and the more traditional release point has taken away from some of his deception.

Pitch Arsenal Breakdown

Depending upon who you ask, John Stilson either has three or four pitches. The first two are very clear, as they’re the right hander’s top two offerings. He features a plus calibre fastball that sits between 91 and 94 miles per hour while in the rotation. In short stints out of the bullpen it’s a grade better, as Stilson will consistently work around the 95 mph mark and touch even higher. His best gun reading came during college while serving as the Aggies closer, as the big Texan hit 99 mph. The fastball has average movement as it’s more of a traditional four-seamer than a two-seamer or sinker, but he’s always commanded it quite well.

Stilson’s strikeout pitch is a low-to-mid 80’s changeup that has received equally impressive reviews. The offspeed pitch has a tremendous amount of sink, and while it has lost some deception with Stilson’s more streamlined mechanics, he still has the requisite arm speed to keep hitters off balance. The changeup is already very impressive, and like the fastball, it has the potential to be a plus pitch. When you combine these two pitches with a competitive and fiery demeanour, it quickly becomes apparent why most feel John Stilson would be a highly effective late inning reliever.

If he is to remain a starter, he’ll need to make improvements in the breaking ball department, and this brings us back to the three/four pitch question. He’ll throw two breaking balls at very different velocities – one in the high 70’s, the other in the mid 80’s – and while some classify the pitches as distinctly separate offerings (a curveball and slider), others argue that it’s simply one slurve-type pitch that Stilson will manipulate to do different things depending upon the situation. Regardless of what you want to call the breaking ball, it’s noticeably behind the fastball and changeup in development, consistency, and command. The best future grade I’ve seen on the pitch is average, but if Stilson remains in the bullpen (where he belongs), it’s a rather moot point.

Projection

John Stilson has the raw stuff to be a solid mid-rotation starter, but durability concerns will likely keep him in the bullpen where he has the perfect world projection of an upper echelon closer.

2013 Outlook, Risk, and ETA

The injury concerns reared their ugly head late in 2012, as after originally being assigned to the Arizona Fall League to represent the Blue Jays, Stilson was pulled off the roster just before games started because of lingering arm soreness – over a month after his last official appearance. Assuming he has progressed past that soreness, Stilson should return to New Hampshire in the spring where he concluded last season with 50 innings. I suspect he’ll be returning to the rotation as well, as the Blue Jays have become known for giving pitching prospects every opportunity to prove they can stick in the rotation before demoting them to relief duties.

There’s an old baseball adage that “an arm only has so many bullets”, and I feel like the organization is wasting too many of Stilson’s by attempting to start him in what will inevitably look like an act of futility. Max effort pitchers like Stilson have a place, and it’s at the back end of a major league bullpen. If Toronto made the change this spring, he could be contributing at the major league level in the second half of 2013. If they continue with the starter experiment, we’re looking at a 2014 debut, and by the time he arrives there will be another 150-plus innings of wear and tear on the shoulder. Stilson’s developed arsenal and proximity to the show make him medium risk, but as long as the Blue Jays keep up this starter’s charade, the risk is medium-high.