Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-US PRESSWIRE

I wrote an article a few weeks ago arguing that the Jays did not have to try and win NOW. I stand behind the sentiment behind that article. When surveying the field, I did not believe that the risks associated with filling the team’s holes (starting pitching, 2nd base, left field, DH, catcher) were worth the costs (massive expenditures on free agency or giving up a significant portion of our minor league prospects) and that the pressure for a win-now move was misguided. I still believe that.

What I did not know was that AA had an offer to fill most of our holes in one fell swoop by picking up half of the Miami Marlins talent without giving up the core of our minor league talent. The Jays did take on a large amount of salary. The Jays did give up two prospects in Marisnick and Nicolino that may, may, blossom into all-star talents in the future.  But, the risks in this trade were well worth pulling the trigger. Overnight the Jays turned into a contender in a weakening AL East without jeopardizing the future.

AA took a mighty big swing. Before we find out whether he knocked it out of the park or not,  we should recognize that it was the right pitch to swing at. In my previous article, I wasn’t trying to argue that the Jays shouldn’t make major moves in order to win, but that they had to be the right moves. If they right moves weren’t available, then I didn’t think a 100 million contract for Anibal Sanchez or the pressure trying to force it were going to move the team forward.

With the trade and now Cabrera signed the Jays are avoiding sinking their future into over-priced free agents to fill the holes on the team. With that said, I’d be lying if I ignored my greed for moving the chips all in and signing Zach Greinke, Brandon McCarthy, and Johnny Gomes. Unrealistic indeed. What I can say, is that I am excited to see where AA moves next.

Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-US PRESSWIRE

Q: What do you think the Jays need to target in Free Agency? What would you be happy with them coming away with?

Kyle Franzoni:
The Jays need pitching, pitching, and more pitching. However, I’m not satisfied with the talks surrounding Scott Baker and Shawn Marcum as targets. I want to hear how Toronto is chasing Dan Haren or how they are going to be seriously in the bidding competition for Zack Greinke. They may be a pipe dream, but Anthopoulos needs to make a concerted effort to try and land at least one of them. That said, it isn’t going to happen if next year’s salary budget is $90 million. There just isn’t enough room there.

 Kyle Matte:
I don’t think anyone would argue that, while Greinke would be a simply amazing acquisition, it’s just not going to happen for the Blue Jays. He pitched well with Los Angeles in the second half, and with their lack of interest in retaining Haren or Santana, they appear focused on getting Greinke locked up long term. Furthermore, the Rangers and Red Sox are rumored to be interested as well, so you can quickly see how out of hand the bidding may get. Toronto is going to need to target the second tier of free agent starting pitchers, and to me that comes down to trying to land one of Edwin Jackson or Anibal Sanchez.

Both pitchers are exactly what this team needs; a reliable, high-end number three starter. Jackson has made 31 or more starts in each of the last six years, which is truly amazing with the way arms seem to be falling apart these days. Over the last four seasons, he’s totaled 14.1 fWar. The top Blue Jays pitchers over that time frame? Ricky Romero at 10.4 and Brandon Morrow at 9.6. He has a pitch arsenal very similar to that of Brandon Morrow, so the two of them would likely work well together and perhaps even improve their games by looking at one another’s strengths and weaknesses. He’ll be 29 years old on Opening Day, and I’d be very willing to offer a four year contract, with an annual salary somewhere between 12 and 15 million.

Sanchez’ history of success and reliability is a bit shorter, but he’s still recorded at least 195 innings in each of the past three seasons, totaling 12 fWar over that span. Much of that success came in the National League, but Sanchez proved himself capable of handling the American League with a late season surge and a very strong postseason. His fastball is a notch lower than Jackson’s, but Sanchez makes up for it with a much more diverse repertoire, featuring a four seamer, cutter, slider, changeup, curveball, and sinker. My offer to Sanchez would be much the same, as I feel he and Jackson are on a level field talent wise.

Regardless, here’s hoping Toronto can accomplish something big, and that the big something isn’t named Kyle Lohse.

Jeff Morten:
The whole Greinke pipe dream is just a tease.  I wish there was a Roger Clemens-type of acquisition NOW when I think it would floor the fans.  What AA needs to be doing is jumping into trade markets and free agency with the same gusto and do it early.  If he hits the ground running with say Sanchez or Jackson it would lend some credence to what AA has been saying all along:  this is the year to make a big splash.

It is also a big deal for Rogers to lose the misconstrued idea that they are not willing to spend.  There is nothing wrong with a little overspending…seemed to do our World Champs teams some good.  I think it is more than possible to deal for Dan Haren AND sign Anibal Sanchez.  Allows the kids to develop and if a kid needs to come up and is bashing on the Major League door then we have decent trade chips. It is imperative we have some consistency next year in the rotation.  If we even had three pitchers put up numbers this year we would have been right there in the wild card hunt.  We need leaders.  We need gamers. A pitchers John MacDonald.  Sanchez proved to himself and to a lot of baseball folk that he has what it takes. The playoffs were his showcase and he came through very well.

Trade-wise I would keep an eye on the Padres and perhaps the Royals giving up on some of their young starters. I am not a stat head but I believe in character an hard play.  Hopefully we get a manager in place along with Haren and Sanchez and perhaps a Keppinger at 2nd.  Throw them to the media 2 days after free agency opens and that is how you build the anticipation needed to sell more tickets.

Kyle Matte:
I’m on board for Melky on a one year deal. It would be a boost to the present roster and would give Gose another season in Triple-A (in a significantly more neutral environment) to continue refining his offensive game for a long term role.

If all it took was a relief pitcher to land Haren, and the Blue Jays were interested, you have to imagine the Angels were asking for Janssen. Casey doesn’t have a single dominant pitch like Marmol’s slider, but he’s a much, much better pitcher overall and his contract is significantly more team-friendly. Obviously the team balked at the asking price, and likely countered with Steve Delabar or Brad Lincoln, which didn’t interestLos Angeles. That, or the ownership was simply too cheap to absorb upwards of 15 million in salary, which would be a bad sign for the remainder of the off-season.

Kyle Franzoni:
I said earlier this fall how I’d like to see Melky. He’s got a lot to atone for, which gives him incentive to play in a market like Toronto and rebuild a reputation.

Here’s another name to throw out there in left field. What about Ichiro. Jays don’t need power and could use someone to market and Ichiro comes with his chase to 3000 if he gets two years.

Kyle Matte:
I’m not sure I could be further off the Ichiro bandwagon. He had a good two months in New York, but that doesn’t make me forget about the previous year and a half in Seattle where he was a borderline replacement level player. He also has the “allure” of a future Hall of Famer, and I’m not interested in seeing the team pay for milestones. For the price he’ll command, for a team like Toronto, there are far better options.

Kyle Franzoni:
In the end, I think left field is going to be one of those positions left alone. This team has far greater needs in the pitching staff and signing just one of the names mentioned above relegates Toronto to another year of Rajai Davis and whatever platoon mate the team chooses for him.

Jeff Morten:
Rajai is perfect for a fourth outfielder. I would love to see if we could get Sin Shoo Choose….he would be nice in left and I could see him being available. Team player…good all around guy.

David Schecter
Did anyone else notice that Cody Ross wasn’t given a qualifying offer from the Red Sox? He could be a cheap option who is worth a sniff? Thoughts?

Charlie C:
I’ve been drinking again, so am going to do away logic and just go with my heart.  I want Mike Napoli.  That trade for Frank f’n Francisco still gives me nightmares.  We had a rookie catcher, Adam Lind coming off of a terrible year, and questions at DH, so after dealing the worst contract in the world for a guy that could fill in at all those positions AA decides to flip him for a pseudo ex-closer (who admittedly had a pretty nice season the year before).

Next season the Jays may, once again, have a rookie starting catcher and Adam Lind still sucks.  Napoli could provide roster flexibility by filling in all 3 positions mentioned above and allow AA to deal JPA alone or both he and Mathis.  Napoli’s 2012 was nothing like his 2011 but his .343 OBP would have put him third on the Jays team and his 2 WAR fourth.  He’ll be expensive, but as was mentioned earlier, AA is almost guaranteed to have to overpay in the FA market, Napoli can still hit and is ‘only’ 31.  A 2 year plus option deal may work.

On the pitching side of things, again, no numbers based logic here.  I’m from B.C., I graduated from same high school as Brett Lawrie, so that’s one BC kid down.  I say go and get Ryan Dempster to make two.  Gibsons is a nice place, filmed Beachcombers there.  Will give Buck and Tabby plenty of stuff to talk about.  He just needs to remember his passport.

Kyle Matte:
It would probably take 3 years for Napoli, but I’m with you on the value he could add as a 1B/DH/C, particularly if we trade Arencibia and go with d’Arnaud. I think I’d be comfortable offering him a deal similar to what we gave Encarnacion; 3/27-30.

Charlie:
I’d be perfectly happy to go three years.  Gives flexibility behind the plate and would allow D’Arnaud to be eased in.  And a power bat, can’t really go wrong.

To get in the spirit of continuing Charlie’s drunken rambling I decided to sit down and have some Guinness myself. Now I feel prepared to take the opportunity to expand upon a recent media meme mentioned by Charlie that has lowered my already below theMendozaline opinion of Jays media coverage.

Charlie picked Stephen Brunt’s article “Jays Need to contend ASAP” but it could have been any one of the recent articles arguing the same foul-smelling malarkey that I want to trudge through. This is a perfect case of a media created narrative putting pressure on a club to make moves in order to satisfy the narrative regardless of whether it is a good move for the club. This media-pressure sometimes changes public perceptions and forces clubs into making moves that they do not need to make.

The one thing that narratives like these definitely succeed at is further brandishing the credentials of media experts. But let me ask- why do the Jays need to contend this year more than any other year? Is this not the stated goal of every professional sports team every single year? We do not hold teams, except for maybe the Yankees, to that standard because we recognize that it isn’t realistic. Yet, according to many of the experts in the media there is something special about this upcoming season.

You see, this is how the media narrative goes. A new GM (AA) comes in. He gets a grace-period to rebuild. He usually gets his first manager’s tenure. Then, the media turns, the pressure builds, and the team needs to either get into the playoffs or start-over again. The problem with these media driven narratives is that they ask the wrong questions and create pressures that are sometimes detrimental to the team. Not every GM faces the same situation and not every GM receives the same amount of luck (Yes. I am sorry, but a certain part of putting together a team is luck). This is why not every GM should be held to the same timeline, but that is beside the point.

The point is that the headlines should never be that the Jays need to contend. It is meaningless, self-aggrandizing and self-profiteering for the media to write these articles. The question should be what do the Jays need to do in order to contend and how can they get there? Can it happen this year? Should it happen next year? Are the moves that they are making on the road to contention?

If you want to put pressure on the GM, you should be looking at the moves that he has made. You should be asking whether he has done a good job and if you want to suggest replacing him, you should be asking if there is anyone better. Maybe I am jumping the gun, but it seems pretty clear from the media narrative that this it the next step in where the argument will be going.

Suggesting that the Jays need to contend ASAP is just a fancy way of saying: whether the moves are good or are bad, whether they are wasting money or not, the Jays need to make it look like they are trying to contend instead of making the rights moves that will make them contend. It is mostly a meaningless statement from members of the media who probably have a bone to pick about other issues that they can’t continually bring up.

The truth is that the Jays need to continue building a contending team and make moves that move the team forwards instead of backwards. That is how you create a contending team. You don’t do it by deciding that they must contend one year over any other.

To get my bearings, I decided to take a look at the standings, the point differentials, and the rank of  injuries per team over the past two seasons. I want to remind myself what happened this season and see how it compared to 2011. I am hoping that will lift the foggy haze that currently surrounds the Jays in my head.

With that, here are some stats for you to look at and surmise what you want from them….

A FEW THOUGHTS:

You can see that injuries fluctuate depending on a combination of random variation and line-up construction. The Yankees almost topping the injury rankings this year at number 2 can be seen as an eventuality borne out of their dusty old team, however, the fact that they lost young pitcher Michael Pineda for the season illustrates that there is still some luck involved here. Yet, it isn’t a surprise as they topped the list last year as well.

When it comes to the Jays, it should mildly raise some suspicion that the team has been in the top ten of injuries amongst all MLB teams the past two seasons. What should cause the alarm bells to be ringing is the breakdown by fangraphs over the past 3 seasons. Look at how many pitchers we have lost: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2012-disabled-list-summary/ For the Jays to survive in this league, the front office better fix this situation. If it is all just extreme variations in luck then we better start holding seances in downtown Toronto to reverse the team’s fortunes.

The other point of note is that if you look at the changes in point-differential and team record between the past two seasons, you can see that you can explain some of these changes by free agent acquisitions  drafting, internal development, and injuries, but you can’t explain all of them. We have 162 games in baseball because of how much more extreme the random fluctuations of the sport can be, when compared to football or hockey. These dips and highs can happen over entire seasons as well (BALTIMORE, EE).

So where does that leave the Jays? The team has definitely not over-performed in the standings over the past two seasons. The bad news is that they aren’t likely to do so without a few changes to the rotation. The good news, is that it looks like the AL East is starting to provide an opening. Boston is certainly rebuilding. While the Yankees are probably going to be back in the playoffs they are certainly trending downwards. Tampa-bay is competitive and Baltimore is trending up, but neither team will be an insurmountable force.

There is some pessimism creeping into the Jays community. There certainly isn’t the excitement that was pulsing through-out Toronto before the season began. But, the fact is, everyone shouldn’t be so disheartened. A.A. has certainly fallen from grace in the media, but the talking heads have their own agendas as well and have a need to point the blame in order to sell copy. He certainly isn’t the ninja immune from failure that he was built-up to be, but he also isn’t the bumbling incompetent ‘bean-counter’ that he is painted as today.

The Jays are still trending in the right direction, with some room for internal player development from the minors and on the major-league team. Hopefully the team will add a few useful free agents. When you look at the rest of the league, there is an openings for the Jays in the AL East.

Well, unless the Dodgers decide to trade for A-ROD, Texeria, and Jeter.

Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-US PRESSWIRE

This segment explores issues that I wish would grab the check, leave the news-cycle, and go find somewhere to die.

Jays and Farrell

He has gone to his dream job. He didn’t want to be here. We obviously didn’t want him to be here too badly either. We got something of value for him in Mike Aviles. Yes, Mike Aviles isn’t worth that much, but neither is a manager. End of story.

Yet, this story is on permanent loop with every marginal piece of news exploding into an extension of this story’s news cycle. People’s expectations for what could have been compensation were too high. The fact that he went to the Red Sox seemed to put salt into the wound. It certainly helps to sell print copy.

I really don’t understand all of the hubbub over the trade. The idea that the Jays are a development team is a straw man. Farrell came from the Red Sox. Were the Sox crying foul when The Jays signed him?  If the Jays signed Tito would they be our development team?

The Jays organization made this move, because it was the best move for the organization, not because it was the best move for the Red Sox. Farrell has so far shown himself to be a very replaceable manager. Really, any manager is replaceable, especially if you get someone who would at least play at the MLB level.

Let’s turn the page, and start focusing on the issue that really matters: who is going to replace Farrell? As much as a manager doesn’t hold that much value, you still want the guy that can squeeze the most out of the club (Acta or Martinez anyone)?

AROD and the Yankees

ESPN HEADLINE: “Yankees GM: A-ROD not out of reach”

Um, thanks for the headline and the news, but I don’t think that this is actually a story. Print isn’t worth much if you are just stating the obvious. AROD isn’t out of reach? That is a really nice way to phrase the truth.

The truth is that AROD would be traded for any half-decent offer, or really any offer.  His contract is why the Yanks would get rid of him. Arod’s contract  is also why no team will trade for him unless so much of it is paid down that it would not be worth it for the Yankees to trade him.

All of the superficial nonsense is just the Yankees negotiating and trying to maintain AROD’s value. That is why you’ll read comments like these, “He’s still an above-average third baseman. … That means despite the contract that we had committed to him, that he’s an asset at this stage still. I don’t see us doing anything there. I don’t anticipate it. If someone wants to make phone calls, we’re more than willing to do all that stuff with any of our players, and that’s fine. You can run into something that way.”

All of this seems so obvious that it is pretty much public knowledge and yet I get to read a constant stream of ‘NEWS’ updating me on the situation. To steal Ditka’s new line: please, just stop it.

JMandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-US PRESSWIRE

2012

Now that the season is over and before free agency hits, I thought it would be a good time to look over this year’s attendance and payroll figures.  Honestly, I was pretty shocked with what I found.  Before looking into it, I knew that attendance was up through 81 games. In fact, the Jays had 2,099,653 customers go through the gates over their 81 home games in 2012.

But, it was the progression in the figures that shocked me. I assumed that given the course of the season that the Jays would have had large attendance figures at the beginning of the season that would have tailored off before they jumped off a cliff at the end. If anything, the attendance figures rose slightly over the course of the season:

10 games: 481,863
40 games: 1,069,469
60 games: 1,663,222
81 games: 2,099,653

Even if I was a few of those people going through the turnstiles over the past 20 games, I can’t believe more fans came out at the end of the season than at the beginning of it.  This isn’t the first times that fans completely befuddle me. Then again, there could be underlying economic and cyclical reasons for this.

The Trends

Next I figured- why not choose an arbitrary point (say the past five years) to compare these figures and figure out the trends:

It ends up that 2008 was the last time that the Jays had over 2 million fans attending games (it wasn’t such an arbitrary starting point). Even though 2008 saw 200,000 more fans attending games than in 2012, the club payroll was also $27 million dollars higher and that is with inflation. The Jays records between these two years is flipped around despite the fact that their ranking in the AL East remains the same.

If you look at these figures you may be a little confused. The Toronto Blue Jays have ranked 4th in the AL East in the past four years with records moving up and below the 500 level and yet attendance figures and payroll figures have managed to fluctuate a fair amount. So either fans are dumb or the narrative is significantly more complicated; It is especially more complicated than the spin that comes out of the Jays front office.

The good news is that attendance is trending in the correct direction and that the Jays are moving towards being the middle to large market sized team that it is. Toronto, is the fifth largest city in North America. It just forgets that it is. At the same time, the money these days is in the television deals and these figures are far more secretive. Nevertheless, the TV market that is the entire Canadian country and the fact that ownership is vertically integrated with its TV partner should lay to rest the notion that the Jays are a small-market team or should operate like one.

At the same time, I think you can see that increasing pay-roll is not the silver-bullet that some like to think it is (those screaming for Prince Fielder last year). You can also see this point if you watched the Yankee’s yesterday or if you looked closer at A-ROD sitting firmly riding the pine.

So, yes. I don’t feel a bit of guilt or pity for the Jays who cry poor. But, spending money just for the sake of spending it is stupid in any business, including sports. Without question it sets you back. As always, A.A.’s free agent pursuit will be about getting value for our dollars instead of just spending our dollars. However, if we can get value for a large contract, it is about time that the Jays sign on the dotted line.

Let’s just hope that it isn’t five years for Kyle Lohse or 8 years for Josh Hamilton……

Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-US PRESSWIRE

Welcome to our first roundtable of the week. We are going to kick of this week with a discussion on the rumors from Boston swirling around Farrell and on what we think of his first few years as a manager.

Kyle Franzoni

For me it comes down to a question of where Farrell’s heart truly is. If he’s truly interested in returning to Boston and taking on that mess, then the Jays need to accommodate that and get what they can in return. There is nothing worse than having a manager in place that feels like he’s held captive in the role.

The true issue if they let him go is what they get in return. Toronto should ask again for Clay Buchholz, to which they will be declined. Adding another prospect to the mix does nothing to help this club in the immediate term.

As for Farrell’s performance, it is hard to truly give him a grade. He had a solid first season, but ultimately failed to deliver the team to the postseason. Rather than improve on that in 2012, the team fell apart, both physically and mentally, but that is hardly Farrell’s issue. I think he deserves the last year of his contract to show he can right the ship, but again, why keep him around for only one season when they can get something in return for him if he’s on a short leash.

David Schecter

I agree that the Jays shouldn’t want anyone that doesn’t want to be here. If Farrell wants to go then we can complain and cry about it but that isn’t going to get us anywhere. We aren’t just a development league for the Red Sox, even though I already foresee enough talking heads screaming about it on the radio and in print. He came from the Red Sox and we knew he was thought of as an eventual successor for their organization. I take a look at Joe Maddon and the Rays and I see that great managers can stay in less appealing organizations. So, I do think it really comes down to what Farrell wants.

Farrell has been a good manager but not great. He has certainly had his weaknesses (base-running and in game tactics), but if we are investing in a first-time manager then we have to be committed to allowing him to evolve. So, while it would be a loss to lose Farrell it would be a loss that could be easily fixed and maybe even improved on (I am looking at you Dave Martinez).

If we keep Farrell, then it is because he wants to be here. If A.A. thinks he is the right manager for this club then there should at least be a conversation about whether we should re-sign him or not. If we don’t keep him then it is just a matter of getting the most value out of the Red Sox as possible. That is exactly what A.A. is doing right now, but, I doubt we get a player that ever ends up playing in the major leagues forget a Clay Buccholz.

If we get anything of value for him, meaning any player or prospect that would play in the MLB then it is worth getting rid of Farrell, but maybe I am undervaluing the importance and ease of replacement of a manager?

Kyle Matte 

As you guys have said, his future here really comes down to the private conversations held between he and Alex Anthopoulos. If he wants to be here, I fully expect he’ll stay; but if he has any semblance of doubts creeping in, I’m sure Toronto would rather move on to someone with a passion and desire to see the Blue Jays return to glory. The compensation from Boston would be tricky, as seemingly any time a manager or general manager gets “traded”, things never unfold smoothly. I’d love to see Clay Buchholz or Rubby De La Rosa join the Blue Jays, but they would definitely be on the absolute high end of a possible return. Boston would really, really need to want Farrell for something like that to go down. In reality, we’re likely looking at a mid-tier prospect — I’ve heard Drake Britton’s name bantered about — which when you really think about it, would still be a pretty awesome return for a manager who, theoretically, doesn’t want to be here.

For me, personally, the two years John Farrell has been at the helm have been very “meh”. I don’t think he’s done a horrible job, as some people often suggest, but at the same time I don’t think he’s done a great job either. If he does leave, I really don’t think Toronto has much of a void to fill. There is a plethora of candidates available right now that I’d take over Farrell outright, let alone with whatever compensation we receive through trade added in. Even with Terry Francona settling into Cleveland, there are still guys outside the organization like Dave Martinez and Manny Acta who I feel would be great additions and would provide some drastically different views on things. Martinez is Maddon’s understudy, while Acta is one of the more sabermetrically savvy managers, fully embracing the value of outs. Within the organization, Torey Lovullo appears to be a highly sought after candidate and is well respected around the game. I’m sure he would be a fine replacement, as would Brian Butterfield, who has been with the organization basically forever.

Regardless of the conclusion, I’ll be quite happy when all of this Boston drama is over and done with.

Charlie C

I’ll start with Kyle’s finish.  I just wish this whole melodrama would sort itself out and we can get over it.  However it turns out.  But, it’s the off-season, and we need stuff to talk about.

As a fan of the team, I really don’t care if he stays or goes.  I think the impact a manager has on the win/loss record is a bit overrated.  Ron Washington is regarded as tactically useless, but Texas went to the WS two years running.  Farrell’s in-game management is a bit average, but he’s a second year manager who was lumbered (through no fault of his own) with basically an AAA talent level for a good chunk of the year.  If he made mistakes by being over-aggressive, trying to make something happen, why didn’t one of the many specialty coaches with more experience have a quiet word?  What’s the point of having a bench, pitching, hitting, 3rd base, 1st base, etc coach if not to offer advice.  If Farrell is too proud to use this experience, then we might have a problem.

I think the manager’s most important work is done in the clubhouse, and since there’s still a code of omerta, we’ll never really know how good he is as a man manager.  You get a sense the players respect him.  Vizquel hinted at a lack of leadership, but Omar was a waste of space this year.  I’m very wary of a man who has openly admitted to wanting to move into coaching questioning his current management team.

Basically I’m saying I’d be happy to see John in the dugout next season, preferably with a much better team to manage.  If both parties feel Boston is where he’d prefer to be, then fine. There are plenty of other managers out there (although I was mildly disappointed to see Francona sign so soon).

In regards to compensation.  Why not think outside of the box?  If the two teams can’t agree on a straight up swap, AA should suggest if they want JF then they have to take Lind as well so that he can hit him cleanup in their lineup or, if they truly want someone like Buchholz then offer JF and someone else, a prospect, someone off the roster, doesn’t matter, so long as they see the necessary value in what they are receiving in return

Kyle Franzoni

I agree with thinking outside the box, and frankly I couldn’t understand why the Red Sox and Cubs weren’t able to do the same with the Epstein compensation. Upgrade the prospect from Boston in return for another player included.

Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-US PRESSWIRE

We are going to try something new to this space but not new to sports: angry beer-throwing smash-mouth sports debating. It is the oldest tradition in sports; in fact, it can feel like it is the only tradition in sports.

We are going to christen this ship with a debate on whether it is time to send Henderson Alvarez back to the minors. This feces throwing debate turned out to not be the no-holds bar blood-bath that we envisioned, and for that we apologize from the deepest place in our hearts. We plan on making this a regular feature on the site, so, hopefully next time the training wheels will fall off. For now……….

Point- David Schecter

Henderson Alvarez debuted in 2011 at the age of 21 and since then he has pitched a total of 251 innings in 41 games, 31 of which were pitched this season. Over these 41 games Alvarez has a 4.52 ERA, with 37 home-runs given up, 62 walks and 119 strikeouts. This translates into a +94 ERA, 1.363 WHIP, 1.92 SO/BB ratio and a 4.3 SO/9.  These are decent numbers that many teams could find useful as a 4th or 5th innings eater starter. God knows, that is what the Jays need. It is that need which made Alvarez a mid-season call up last season after only pitching 88 innings in 15 games of AA ball.

The Jays do need innings-eater pitchers, but they also need better pitchers and I can’t help but wonder if Alvarez has a lot more potential hidden away.  At the age of 22 the question is where would it be best for Alvarez to unlock his potential, as that is what would truly be best for creating a world-series quality Jays rotation.

Alvarez is a sinkerball pitcher who is home-run prone for a ground-ball pitcher, but what is really concerning is Alvarez’s disastrously low strikeout ratio over 9 innings.  Sinkerball pitchers can get away with lower strike-out ratio’s, however they still need to be able to punch out a batter every so often. Over 5 seasons in the minors Alvarez had a rate of 6.5 strikeouts per 9. If he qualified as a starter Alvarez would have been in the bottom 20 in the league in 2011 with 5.7 strikeouts per 9. This was a warning sign, but he was young and there was hope for improvement. In 2012 the bottom fell out and Alvarez had the league’s lowest strikeout rate per 9 innings among all qualified starters with 3.8 strikeouts per 9.

Let that sink in. He had the lowest rate among all qualified starters which includes all of the ‘qualified’ trash from rotations across the league. Alvarez certainly doesn’t need to get strikeouts like Brandon Morrow in order to be successful.  At the same time, to be successful and to realize his full potential Alvarez would be well served by improving upon the embarrassingly league lowest strikeouts per 9.

Some of Alvarez’s problems come down to pitch-type and some come down to pitch-selection. In other words he is an immature pitcher, which is fine for a 22 year old. Fangraphs has Alvarez throwing 71% fastballs, 9.9% sliders, and 18% change-ups in 2011 and 69.2% fastballs, 10.5% sliders, 16.4% change-ups, and 2.9% cutter in 2012. Alvarez fastball certainly hasn’t been sharp enough but he really needs to develop his secondary offerings to become a better pitcher. Batters need to be thinking about other pitches when they are facing Alvarez at the plate. Alvarez needs the pitches to set up his fastball. We knew this when we called him up from AA at 21 years old.

The hope was that he would develop his secondary offerings on the major-league level and quite frankly, it hasn’t happened. It is one thing for a pitcher to improve himself at the major league level, but as Alvarez has shown it is extremely difficult, especially for young pitchers, to develop new pitches at the major-league level. They need the space that the minor leagues provides in order to experiment. I think it is about time that we give it to him.

I realize that this may mean that a time will come where Alvarez must be seen as a reliever but that time is not here yet. He is a 22 year old pitcher who throws in the low-mid 90′s and can reach up for some extra heat. If he ends up a reliever then so be it, but the club shouldn’t be writing him off as a reliever at 22 when he has the potential to provide so much more value. This is especially true when the club is begging for more depth in the starting rotation.

We finally have a useful AAA club so lets start making use of it.

Counterpoint – Kyle Franzoni(s)

As David noted, Alvarez’s strength is in his fastball, which tops out at 98 MPH and generally sits in the low-mid 90′s. Also as David noted, Alvarez relies on his fastball way too often, throwing it close to 70% of the time while falling back to his secondary pitches (a slider, change-up, and an occasional cutter) too little.

However, despite reverting under the weight of a full major league work-load, Henderson Alvarez’s issues do not occur because of his meager secondary offerings. His struggles stem from an inability to throw strikes, particularly with his fastball. In 2011, his strike percentage on the fastball was an unimpressive 66.3%. In 2012, that number dipped further to 64.5%.

Alvarez’s inability to spot the fastball earlier in the count makes him rely on it too often as the counts run deeper, and prevents him from using his secondary pitches. This has proven a recipe for disaster, as David mentions, showcased by the fact that Alvarez surrendered 29 home runs in 2012, with a 25.8% ratio on HR/FB. It becomes easy to hit home runs in the major leagues when you can sit dead red. The slider is Alvarez’s true out-pitch, but he needs to be able to set it up properly. It is a nasty offering with which he gets a solid K rate, but cannot throw for strikes late in the count.

With all that in mind, giving Alvarez time in the minors to further develop his secondary offerings would be beneficial…if the Jays want to keep him as a starter.

However, while I think a minor league assignment is in the offing, the question comes if Alvarez would be better suited to learn to pitch in relief. His fastball would be more explosive when not tethered down by the need to save himself for longer outings. His slider also becomes a more enticing pitch, with batters having more pressure to swing at it as the game wears on.

The key pitch though will be in his cutter. If Toronto chooses to push him into a relief role, which will be more likely with the acquisition of a high-level starter, then the cutter is almost an essential pitch. Fangraphs has Alvarez throwing the pitch at nearly the same velocity as his fastball, but with a 100% ground ball rate. Granted, this is an offering with a small sample size, but if any pitch needs development, it is one that keeps the ball out of the stands.

As a reliever, coming into situations with runners aboard, having a solid ground ball pitch will make Alvarez nearly invaluable.

John E. Sokolowski-US PRESSWIAt the end of a long lost-season the Blue Jays- represented by Escobar, Snider, Farrell, and Vizquel- have certainly done their best to keep things entertaining. For all of the hyper-inflated nonsense of late about the clubhouse, veteran leadership, and fractured managerial relationships, there has been an implicit quieter critique of the club that should be dominating water-cooler conversations.

I imagine that Alex Anthopoulos isn’t as amused as the rest of us with what has transpired recently, but with the latest secrets slipping out of the always tight-lipped ninja I dare say that even he might agree with the following assessment. The problem with the Jays has not been veteran leadership, free agents, poor contract management, drafting or scouting. What has been failing the Toronto Blue Jays has been player development

An evolving club philosophy in player development seems to recognize this point. The club is talking about leaving more of its young players (like Anthony Gose and Adeiny Hechavarria) in the minors to create depth and let the players force the club’s hand instead of letting the club’s needs force the player’s hand.

To envision this new philosophy, think of the exact opposite of how the club handled Travis Snider, Henderson Alvarez, Drew Hutchison, Gose, Hecchavaria, and Kyle Drabek. Every one of those players was put on the Jays ball-club because the team needed them and not one of them because they were ready. These short-term gains have been detrimental to the club’s long-term health and inconsistent with Alex’s long-term investments in scouting and the draft.

This shift in club philosophy is partly caused and aided by the fact that we finally have a Triple-A club to which we can send prospects without destroying them. The club never should have been in Vegas in the first place, but Vegas shouldn’t be used as an all-in-one excuse for the Jay’s front office’s failures in player development. We haven’t exactly been letting players pitch in Double-A either.

Take Alvarez as an example. According to most scouts, he has the potential of a solid number 3-4 rotation starter and is a pretty safe bet to reach his ceiling. The kid was brought up with only two pitches and the ‘plan’ was to let him develop a third pitch at the major-league level. Well, apparently it is really tough to learn a new pitch playing against the best players in the world while competing in the standings. When Alvarez’s alarmingly low strike-out rate dipped to even lower levels, the club refused to send him back to the minors for the very same reason that they brought him up to the majors: they needed him whether he was ready or not.

I am sympathetic to the argument that the front office is trying to field the best team for its fans. I do end up watching the games, but I am also sympathetic to the argument that we are trying to build a championship team in Toronto. Bringing up players when they aren’t ready isn’t building a championship team, it is treading water. Take a look at teams like the Rangers and Rays whose success we are trying to emulate.

More importantly, the club’s lack of player development clashes with A.A.’s vision for the club: build the core of a championship team through the draft by getting as many picks as possible and selecting high-upside athletic prospects with a premium put on pitching. The Jays wanted to draft lots of high-upside players and build depth in the system. They wanted to hit on twice the number of players of other clubs and so they increased their number of picks and doubled the size of the scouting department. It will take some time for these players to get to the club, but the idea is that once they arrive there will be a constant stream of talented prospects showing up.

At the on-set of A.A.’s tenure the Jays may have been bad, but as a fan I could see what the club was building. Within that vision every move made sense, and so I could see purpose. Fans could sign on, but it has seemed like the Jays forgot about one important part of the equation. They forgot that they need to manage what happens to our prospects between the draft and them donning a Jays jersey. Why put all of this effort into drafting all of these players if we aren’t going to develop them properly?

Players have been jerked around, brought up, sent down, and toyed around with. The front office hasn’t had a vision for player development. Players were moved through the system sometimes based on clubs needs and sometimes for unknown reasons. The club’s reasoning has been inconsistent and sometimes silent. For fans there hasn’t been a way to make sense of it. As a fan, there is no vision or purpose to grasp when looking at player development. It has looked like the Jays are are making up club policy on the fly.

Don’t take this argument to the extreme. Some of these players probably would not have succeeded regardless of what the Jays did with them. But, if the Jays front office is about squeezing as much value as possible in every facet of the game, then why wouldn’t we be setting up our player development system so that we were extracting the most value out of our prospects by putting them in the best place to succeed?

With A.A.’s recent comments it seems like the club is finally carving out its own philosophy of player development that looks similar to the way the Tampa Bay Rays handle their prospects. The Rays conservatively and slowly develop their players. Their players aren’t brought up until they are absolutely ready to play. Rays prospects are put in the best place to succeed, while ensuring that their arbitration clocks start once the club is getting better value for their skills. Price, Hellickson, Davis, Torres, Cobb, and now Guerrerri were all brought along very slowly and it seems to have turned out alright for their pitching staff and its depth.

The major leagues are a constant game of execution and adjustment. Outside of Mike Trout, the average ball-player needs physical, mental, and emotional maturity to be ready. The difference between the Jays and the Rays hasn’t been veteran leadership, but player development. We don’t bring up guys when they are ready because their play demands it, we bring them up when the club needs demands it. It is about time for the front office to be demanding that its long-term need for properly-developed prospects take precedence.

Hopefully so, because then we can all turn our attention back to the circus that has been operating out of the Rogers Center as of late.