Jose Bautista’s arm could be leaving Blue Jays exposed

Jose Bautista‘s value to the Toronto Blue Jays has always been with the bat. There have been Silver Slugger Awards and home run crowns, and along the way, his defence has been, well, enough.

The strongest attribute of Bautista’s fielding has always been his excellent throwing arm, but as he tells Shi Davidi of Sportsnet, he has yet to make a full recovery from a right shoulder strain that he suffered during the 2015 season.

Still just operating at “85-90 per cent” with his throwing arm from right field, Bautista is now forcing himself to pick and choose the best spots to fully uncork on throws.

“It’s using it when you need to,” Bautista said, “having the history of the injury last year, on an unnecessary throw, there’s more of a conscious effort on my end to just make the necessary throw.”

There is some irony here as the initial injury came on a throw deemed by many to be unnecessary. There is also some warranted worry, knowing that Toronto’s star is operating without his full toolbox in the outfield.

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“I haven’t really been challenged too much, I’ve made the throws, hit the cut-off man to make sure we’ve got the ball in and show people that the arm is there, because if you don’t then they’ll start taking more chances, which if they do so be it. I’m going to still be there trying to make the plays. We’ll see what happens.”

Bautista also noted that he is working his way back to his original throwing motion, something that changed following the injury to adapt to his limitations.

This will become problematic if, and perhaps when, opposing teams begin testing Bautista more purposefully from the outfield. Perhaps sending a runner from third base on a single that they would not have two or three years ago.

From 2009 to 2014, Bautista had a FanGraphs ARM Rating (measured in outfield runs above average) that typically hovered around 5.0, with seasons of 1.9 and 6.0 as the largest outliers. Last year that number fell to -2.5, and currently sits at -1.0 on the 2016 season.

The calls for Bautista to move to first base seemingly never end, but realistically speaking, that may not be something we see with him in blue and white. Besides, entering free agency as a first baseman isn’t quite as lucrative as entering free agency as a right fielder.

Each player has their weakness, too. Whether it be the breaking ball, foot speed, or working a walk, Bautista’s just happens to be his throwing arm from right field. If he’s needing to pick his spots to let go a full throw, though, it’s a weakness that will be tested more often as 2016 goes on. And exposed more often.