I was working on a post about how last year at this time the Toronto Blue Jays were done offseason shopping and this offseason they haven’t even started shopping yet.
But that got boring quickly but it did give me a better idea.
Last year at this time the Jays had their roster set for the most part.
And almost everyone felt the Jays had a fighting chance to win the AL East or a wild card spot at this point last year.
A lot of us decided in mid-December what kind of team the Jays were going to be, myself included.
So if you could guess what the team was going to be in mid-December last year it’s only fair to guess what the team is going to look like in mid-December this year.
If the season started today my guess is that the rotation would be Dickey, Buehrle, Morrow, Happ and whoever wins the 5th spot. I certainly can’t think of anyone that would be a lock to be the 5th starter.
But the bat would be a problem. Right now the Jays are just hoping Izturis has a bounce back season. And Goins is no sure thing to be a good player for a full season. Or even to be a decent enough stop gap before the trade deadline in July when the Jays could just get a new 2nd basemen. If you’ve been a Jays fans long enough you know all too well it may not matter by then though.
You might be taking too big a risk that Goins pulls a Yan Gomes on us or is even better than replacement level.
If the season started today they’d be hitting 9th with the massive assumption that everyone else is healthy.
I know some fans are fine with that but in the words of Carlos Delgado himself “The Blue Jays aren’t playing the Bad News Bears, they’re playing against the AL East.”
Having a player with a track record at a position is huge and can’t be overlooked.
It almost feels moronic to guess what the bench is going to look like in December. Josh Thole would be the only sure thing.
The December bullpen is locked and loaded. That’s one part of the team you don’t have to worry about at all right now. As stacked as the Jays bullpen is bullpens are the most unpredictable part of a team from year to year. So if the Jays end up trading enough of them and the guys they keep have down seasons we may not be as spoiled as we were last season.
It’s funny how much confidence we have in the Blue Jays offense that we barely even talk about it. It feels like they only thing we’ve heard about the Jays for the last 2 years is there starting pitching problems.
The Jays have their problems offensively at 2nd base. Navarro will be better than Arencibia but its hard to say exactly what he’ll bring since he’s had an up and down career.
It might be silly of me but I have more confidence in Lind when he’s in a contract year like he will be in 2014. But there’s always a chance he regresses back to the guy he was in 2010 – 2012. As good as he was in 2013 Lind is kind of a wild card.
I feel the same way about Melky. His last 2 great seasons were contract years and he should be healthy. But after his 2013 season you’d have to consider him a wild card.
And I feel pretty confident in the rest of the position players to have a good season.
It’s a lot easier to say “it’s just December” this year.
If the season started today and everyone’s healthy I feel pretty good about the team contending. But at the same time there not exactly my favorites for a playoff spot either.