Toronto Blue Jays – Draftboard Update – 17/09

This edition of the draftboard update was meant to be a bit of a research piece on, if they both had the same lineups next year (admittedly a stretch), whether the Orioles would still be better than the Jays, even if Toronto went through 2014 perfectly healthy.  However, it was meant to run after Baltimore had beaten our heroes Sunday to take two of three over the weekend….for effect.

And, of course, I had hoped to have more time.

So, instead, let’s just do a quick rundown for the sake of discussion.  We have all winter to pick apart the Jays lineup and what needs to be done with it.

I’m going to do a quickie winner/loser positional analysis like they do for rugby games in the Sunday Times.  Probably one of the biggest things I miss about living in England.

Catcher: Matt Weiters vs J.P. Arencibia.  Ya, this is the easiest one of them all

Winner – Baltimore

1st Base: Edwin Encarnacion vs Crush Davis.  From the easiest to the toughest.  Edwin has been sensational with two straight 4.1

Edwin Encarnacion

Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

fWAR seasons.  Davis made a much more significant leap going from a 2 fWAR in 2012 to 6.6 so far this year.  Even if he regresses it will probably be in to the 4.5 to 5 range.  With even the potential that this year is no fluke and the higher defensive grades that Davis gets, you gotta go with him.

Winner – Baltimore

Second Base – Please, this one isn’t really worth looking at, as Toronto will have someone new there next season.  For arguments sake, let’s use Ryan Flaherty vs Maicer Izturis.  One has a positive fWAR, one has a negative.

Winner – Baltimore

Third Base: This one hurts, but no matter how much I like Brett Lawrie and truly think that his second half resurgence is something positive to hang our hats on for next year, Manny Machado is simply better.  We’re talking about two of the top five third basemen in the league though.

Winner – Baltimore

Shortstop: JJ Hardy vs Jose Reyes.  I’m a bit torn on this one as well.  If we get a fully fit Jose Reyes, playing at his best, then he wins this without a contest.  However, JJ is about the same age and signed for a very reasonable 7ish million bucks a year.  He’s never had the huge value years that Reyes has, but he’s steady.  Sorta the tortoise in this race.  Still, those weren’t the parameters.

Winner – Toronto

Left Field: Uggh, Nate McLouth vs. Melky Cabrera.  Really, this is one that is hard to predict, given Melky’s injury, history, etc.  I’m going to mail this one in.

Winner – Baltimore

Center Field: Colby Rasmus vs Adam Jones. Similar to first base, this one is a battle of the heavy weights.  Do we trust Rasmus’ abnormally high 2013 BABIP?  It would be nice to think that this year’s version is what Jays fans can expect going forward.  Jones is a stud, but I think Colby’s better defensive metrics carry the day (will probably cop some flack for this one).

Winner – Toronto

Right Field: Nick Markakis vs Jose Bautista.  Finally, an obvious win for the Jays.  Markakis is a nice player, if not injury prone (something you could say about Jose these days), but Joey Bats can change a game and a season if healthy.

Winner – Toronto

There we have it, without looking at the rotations, which I realize are rather important, Baltimore projects to have a better lineup in 2014 by a tidy 5-3 score.  After all the moves this past off-season, that’s a rather sobering thought.

Off to the draftboard:

Wow, the National League West has done us a few favours with the Padres and Giants both leaping past the Jays.  Toronto now sits tenth.  Unfortunately, the Mariners futility means they are putting some distance between the Jays and a possible pick as high as sixth.

Rk Tm G W L W-L% ▴ GB
1 HOU 151 51 100 0.338 0
2 MIA 151 55 96 0.364 4
3 CHW 151 60 91 0.397 9
4 CHC 151 63 88 0.417 12
5 MIN 150 64 86 0.427 13.5
6 SEA 151 66 85 0.437 15
7 MIL 150 67 83 0.447 16.5
8 NYM 150 67 83 0.447 16.5
9 COL 152 69 83 0.454 17.5
10 TOR 150 69 81 0.460 18.5
11 TOR Phil Bickford
12 SFG 151 70 81 0.464 19
13 SDP 150 70 80 0.467 19.5
14 PHI 151 71 80 0.470 20
15 LAA 151 73 78 0.483 22

 

 

 

Topics: Toronto Blue Jays 2014 Draft

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  • Rocky

    Its debatable between Colby Rasmus and Adam Jones. Adam Jones is a proven all-star and probably is the 2nd best CFder after Mike Trout.

    • Charlie Caskey

      it is very debatable, agreed, but if you look at the advanced metrics the value they both provide are quite similar. Colby, when playing like this, is an elite center fielder. Maybe not quite at Jones’ level yet, but next year he may be.

      • Rocky

        I totally agree. If Rasmus can stay healthy in 2014, he might do better than Adam Jones. Rasmus has all the weapons to be a 5-tool player. If he can make use of it, he could be as good as Adam Jones, maybe even better.

        • Charlie Caskey

          I was quite surprised by the advanced defensive metrics as well. Very positive towards Rasmus which makes sense but Jones generally has negative numbers. In the Rogers Center, and depending on the pitching staff next year, that could be a huge factor

          • Rocky

            Another player thats making a case defensive wise is Anthony Gose. He has incredible speed as a player. I could see Gose and Sierra platooning LF. I’m not sure if Anthopoulos is going to use Rasmus as trade bait however you need to keep your core players and Rasmus is one of them. If Rasmus ends up having a breakout year in 2014, he might get a contract similar to BJ Upton. The only thing I’m having an issue with Rasmus is his K’ rate.

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