March 2, 2012; Dunedin, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Deck McGuire (72) poses for a portrait during photo day at Florida Auto Exchange Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Too Early to Talk 2013 Draft?


I was aimlessly surfing around (story of my life lately) yesterday, looking for any Blue Jay content I could get my hands on, and ran across this 2013 mock draft and mlb’s top 50 prospects for 2013.  Now, I’ve been quite focused on on draft stuff lately, with my 2012 draft review pieces and poking around the ’11 draft.  I thought it may be a tad early to start thinking about June and what the draft will mean to the Jays but hell, it’s never too early to talk draft.

With the tenth overall pick, the Jays will be looking at their highest selection in years (seven at least, as that’s as far back as I was inclined to check).  The closest being when they had the 11th overall selection in 2010, taking Deck McGuire, whose scouting report had him as a potentially durable, back of the rotation innings eater with a floor of, well, we’re finding that out.  A double A gopher ball giver upper.

So, after a winter when the Jays prospect pool was, if not gutted, lightened somewhat, this is an important draft to help replenish the system.  I’m not smart enough to try and predict where the Jays will go with this pick, nor, like the link above, will I attempt to predict a specific player they may take.  They have organizational holes at first, catcher, and corner outfielder, but they will take the best player available to them and positions with kids so young, are often fluid anyway.

There will be pressure, however, to ensure that whomever is picked, makes his way to the major leagues.  As mentioned, I’ve looked at the last seven drafts and broken down the 10th pick as per below:

Draft Year Parent Club Name Position UNI/HS? 2012 Team Pre 2012 BA Ranking Jays Draft # Draftee
2012 Rockies David Dahl OF Oak Mtn HS R – Pioneer Unranked 17 D.J. Davis
2011 Padres Cory Spangenberg 2B Indian River State A+ – Lake Elsinore 78 21 Tyler Beede
2010 Athletics Michael Choice CF U of Texas AA – Midland 80 11 Deck McGuire
2009 Nationals Drew Storen RHP Stanford Nationals 20 Chad Jenkins
2008 Astros Jason Castro C Stanford Astros 17 David Cooper
2007 Giants Madison Bumgarner LHP South Caldwell HS Giants 16 Kevin Ahrens
2006 Giants Tim Lincecum RHP U of Washington Giants 14 Travis Snider

I don’t think I need to say much about the bottom two names on this list.  Despite his difficulties last year, and rumours that the Giants will not re-sign him when he becomes a free agent in 2014, Tim Lincecum, and his two Cy Youngs, have brought plenty of value to the pick.  There is no doubt, either, that Madison Bumgarner is on is way to becoming a front of the rotation starter.

Both Jason Castro and Drew Storen are very serviceable major league players as well.  In fact, looking at Castro’s numbers, he had a better year than our very own J.P. Arencibia (not really setting the bar high, I know) even though he is two years younger.

It may be a bit early to comment on the most recent three, but for fun, let’s take a look:

Michael Choice comes in as Oakland’s number two prospect on BA’s pre-2013 rankings and Michael Newman over at Fangraphs saw him as the third best corner outfielder (even though he’s only played center in his minor league career) he witnessed last season.  Choice had a bit of a down year in AA, if you consider a .779 OPS for a center fielder down, but after hitting thirty home runs in the California league in 2011, next year will be important in his development.  As Newman mentions, before going down to injury, Choice was lighting it up in July so there is every reason to expect good things in 2013.

Cory Spangenberg ranks highly in a very deep San Diego system.  He was only moved to second when he turned pro, so still struggles a bit defensively but shows a nice ability to get on base and speed once there with twenty seven stolen bases.  Most scouting reports I’ve read have him as a top of the order hitter in the Padres lineup by 2015.

It is way too early to make any assumptions about David Dahl, but let me just say this.  Throughout my review of the Jays 2012 draft, I could have led off every positional player with the same line, ‘Player xyz’s excellent high-school/college stats unfortunately didn’t translate to their first season in pro ball’.  The same can’t be said about Dahl.  He destroyed the Pioneer league (the Rockies lowest Rookie Ball team) to the tune of .379/.423/.625 leading the league in many statistical categories, both advanced and old-school.  John Sickels has him as the number two Rockies prospect but rightfully reserves judgement until Dahl sees some more advanced pitching.

This piece began simply because I was curious about two things.  Where the Jays had drafted the past seven years and how the teams picking tenth had fared.  After having done the research, I don’t think we can draw any hard and fast conclusions, but when you consider the last seven drafts have produced four major leaguers and three seemingly on their way, this is obviously a very important pick for the Jays.

Another aspect of the Jays 2013 season to look forward to.

Tags: 2013 Draft Toronto Blue Jays

  • RyanMueller

    Nice article. I envision AA taking another dynamic 5-tool outfielder in the mold of recent picks…Davis or Alford (without the football dreams).

    • Charlie Caskey

      ya, the mock draft I linked had a college third basemen which doesn’t really fit the AA mold. I see another high ceiling prospect taken, but, as you say, without any other sports to take up their time

      • RyanMueller

        It looks like AA has been taking CA, middle INF, and CF and having them switch positions once in the system. I would imagine his view may be that middle INF and CF are more athletic and CA are well CA.

        • Charlie Caskey

          pitchers seem to be the currency of choice of late, may be worth a piece to see what was actually traded in last year positionally speaking

  • raffa

    Not too early !
    …and we can ogle around the 42nd pick also.
    Jays seem to draft well in that zone .. and there will be some intriguing options available this year. Not so many comp picks to dilute second round.

    • Charlie Caskey

      True, am really interested to see if they employ the seniors strategy again this year, or going for something higher end in say rounds 4 and 5 with less comp picks to dilute