Granted, the Jays were not expected to make the playoffs this year, but were expected to gain momentum in their push for the postseason in the near future. What happened instead was the Jays slipping from a .500 team to a team that lost 8 more wins than the previous year. As I mentioned before in a previous article, the injury bug played a big part of the downfall. What I did not mention were some of the positives.
With some of the call up came glimpses of the near future in Adeiny Hechavarria and Anthony Gose, one of which may stick around with the big club starting next season. Some of the midseason trades sent out fan favourites Travis Snider and Beowolf-reading Eric Thames, but brought in some good relievers in Brad Lincoln and Steve Delabar, both providing much needed help to a weak bullpen. Anything to trade away Francisco Cordero. The Jays also got to see off Omar Vizquel in his final year of what may be a Hall of Fame worthy career. Finally, of course, the biggest surprise was the big bat of Edwin Encarnacion, who swatted an additional 25 HR, 23 runs, doubled the RBI and added 3 WAR from last year. All from a front office that spent roughly $83,700,000 in contracts at the beginning of the year, good for 23rd in the league. With a full season of relatively fewer injuries, the Jays could compete next year, but still need a little bit of help.
One of the biggest problems the Blue Jays have of late is spending their money wisely in order to build a strong team. Our previous GM (he who shall not be named) spent the big bucks on a few specific players that brought short term results, in A.J. Burnett and B.J. Ryan. Just like every player that uses initials in Toronto, they quickly soured, and the Jays never really made it higher than 2nd place in the division under that GM‘s reign. The team never really developed properly and was bandaged together in the offseason. Spending freely is not always the best choice, even if you do have money to spend.
Some teams have done very well with less money than the Jays. You don’t even have to look in the past, as this year the Oakland Athletics won the AL West division starting the year with near $52,900,000 in contracts. For most teams in which money is an obstacle, the goal is to make the postseason getting as many wins as possible while spending as little money as possible to do it. To illustrate how exactly the Jays stack up in those terms, I’ve made a table that illustrates team success based on contract money spent, with the most successful team spending the least amount of money to get to the playoffs. The Top 6 division leaders are ranked 1-6 in contract efficiency, the Wild Card winners are ranked 7-10 and the rest of MLB is ranked purely based on how much they spent per win to not make the playoffs. Contract numbers are rounded to nearest 100,000, with $/win rounded to nearest 1,000.
|Team Name||$/Win||$ Contracts||Wins||Playoffs||Eff. Ranking|
|San Fransisco Giants||1,398,000||131,400,000||94||D||4|
|New York Yankees||2,208,000||209,800,000||95||D||6|
|St. Louis Cardinals||1,272,000||111,900,000||88||WC||9|
|Tampa Bay Rays||707,000||63,600,000||90||N/A||12|
|San Diego Padres||732,000||55,600,000||76||N/A||13|
|Kansas City Royals||889,000||64,000,000||72||N/A||14|
|Toronto Blue Jays||1,147,000||83,700,000||73||N/A||19|
|Chicago White Sox||1,149,000||97,700,000||85||N/A||20|
|New York Mets||1,277,000||94,500,000||74||N/A||24|
|Boston Red Sox||2,539,000||175,200,000||69||N/A||30|
As you can see, the Jays were ranked 19th in contract efficiency to wins generated based on the payrolls of every team as indicated by Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They are based on numbers generated at the beginning of the year (therefore not taking into effect call ups and trades), however it’s the closest thing to accuracy that’s available to the general public. What is does show is that they outperformed their 23rd place in contracts spent by earning more wins with their money. This is mostly due to cheaper players being brought up through the Jays farm system and earning entry level contracts. What this can do is allow the team to spend more on free agents this coming winter to improve their win count, and they should receive some added bonuses to help them out.
Yesterday, MLB announced a new national TV deal with Turner Sports and Fox. Combined with the deal with ESPN earlier in August, each team should receive roughly $52,000,000 in annual earnings from the deal, starting in 2014. Blue Jays GM Alex Anthoupoulos has always hinted at going after big name players in free agency after building a team through the draft (never revealing more than the obvious), and with extra income generated by MLB executives, there is more of a freedom to make moves for all the GM’s in the league.
2013 will mark 20 years since the Blue Jays last won the World Series Championship. The ’92 and ’93 teams did it by doing what the current team is trying to do now; build a strong team through the draft and bring in the final pieces in the offseason. Money is the most important thing in the business of baseball, and with economic help just along the way in the near future, the time is now to get back to the winning ways of yesteryear. The Blue Jays are arguably the best chance Toronto has for postseason success, and the only way to get there is play a little bit of Moneyball.