Comments on: Toronto Blue Jays Top Tools: Fastball

By: Rockshu

Rockshu — Sat, 14 Apr 2012 18:39:50 +0000

@beejayy
There’s obviously huge risks with any prospect, but it’s even moreso with pitchers. People love to see high school pitchers and dream on improvement, but a lot of times, they go backwards for inexplicable reasons. Norris has the potential to have a devastating fastball, but just as easily as he could start sitting 93-95 regularly and touch even higher, he could fall back to 88-90 if his arm can’t handle big inning totals.

If even two or three of these pitchers reach their fastball potential it would be a dream come true for any farm director. That’s something I perhaps didn’t emphasize enough. It’s one thing to give present and potential ratings, but I should have better stated the difficulty in improving from plus to plus-plus. It’s a huge gap.

As a Blue Jays fan, I obviously hope for the best for all these guys, and I would be a liar if I said I didn’t write with an optimistic twist on things. But I’m not going to flat out lie on anything. I read numerous velocity reports, and I condensed them into what I wrote above. Things could drastically change over the next year as he gets used to the professional life, but for the time being, these reports are the best we have.

By: beejayy

beejayy — Sat, 14 Apr 2012 18:27:55 +0000

Fair enough, you’re clearly passionate about this subject and I think that’s to be admired. I think we’re all rooting for these guys to come good, however, what little information we receive of these players tends to get conflated by “projections.” I hope you’re right, but I hazard a guess that you’re banking on miracles here.

By: Rockshu

Rockshu — Sat, 14 Apr 2012 18:18:34 +0000

@beejayyAnd I’ve said it numerous times already, both in the comments and in the article itself, but the biggest thing for Norris is finding his velocity consistently, which is a matter of mechanics. He’s already thrown some big numbers.

By: Rockshu

Rockshu — Sat, 14 Apr 2012 18:16:46 +0000

@beejayy
The most recent I have is January, and considering he hasn’t really pitched since last summer, you’re hard pressed to find a more accurate report than what Kevin Goldstein received from SCOUTS WHO ACTUALLY WATCHED HIM.

By: Rockshu

Rockshu — Sat, 14 Apr 2012 18:15:53 +0000

I see velocity growth in Norris because he’s only 18, he’s athletic, he has a frame in which to further grow, and cleaner mechanics could do wonders, as they’re one of the biggest issues. Norris doesn’t need to add 5-6 mph, he really doesn’t need to add anything, he just needs to be able to sit in the 93-95 mph range more consistently.

The BP velocity report came out in January, and the BA velocity report came out last April, only a couple months before being drafted.

You’re also completely incorrect on the throwing hardest in the first inning. Power pitchers need a couple of innings to get warmed up, particularly when it’s very cold out. If you watch Brandon Morrow with any regularity, you’d see he usually peaks in velocity around the 3rd or 4th inning before slowly trailing off as fatigue sets in. And again, it was an EXHIBITION GAME. You may as well judge pitchers entirely on Spring Training if that’s your attitude.

I’m not comparing pitching to hitting, I’m comparing one ridiculous, short sighted statement to another. If you want to judge a pitcher based upon one inning, you may as well judge a hitter based upon 4 at-bats. Both are asinine to do.

By: beejayy

beejayy — Sat, 14 Apr 2012 18:15:20 +0000

So the most recent scouting report you have on his velocity is a year old and has him at 86-96mph? Can you speak to why he might project to pitch at increased, sustained velocities?

By: Rockshu

Rockshu — Sat, 14 Apr 2012 18:09:53 +0000

If you’d like, I can cite some articles in which Norris’ velocity is applauded:

Baseball Prospectus: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15913#commentMessage

“Norris is an ultra-athletic left-hander with broad shoulders, excellent arm action, and a fastball that already sits at 92-95 mph”

Baseball America: http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2011/04/game-report-daniel-norris-nicky-delmonico/

“Norris’ fastball ranged anywhere from 89-96 mph, but sat mostly 93-95, especially against Delmonico.”

Baseball Prospect Report: http://www.bbprospectreport.com/2010/11/08/daniel-norris-report

“FB 91-94, comfort zone 91-92, with downhill tail and sinking action.” — again, that’s current Velo

By: beejayy

beejayy — Sat, 14 Apr 2012 18:06:28 +0000

It was one inning, and that’s important in itself. Pitchers usually throw a lot harder in one inning of scheduled work than over the course of three, four, five.

I don’t think you quite understand scouting if you’re comparing at-bats to pitching.

By: beejayy

beejayy — Sat, 14 Apr 2012 18:04:20 +0000

I think we’d all like to see your sources for your projections. You are not a scout, nor does it sound like you have much real baseball experience. What in Daniel Norris’ delivery or body do you see 5-6mph more in? Does it concern you that from his junior year in high school to first year at the pro level he seems to have lost a fair amount of velocity? If you’re projecting huge leaps in velocity, where do you expect that to come from? If you look at Aaron Sanchez, sure you say he’s free and easy, he has the ideal body and frame to project some added girth to his fastball. But not everyone is the same. Take John Stilson for example, he’s had major shoulder issues. Pitchers usually don’t throw significantly harder after an injury of that sort. I just think if you’re going to engage in projection talk, some recent sources from real scouts might do your work a whole lot of good.

By: Rockshu

Rockshu — Sat, 14 Apr 2012 18:01:40 +0000

It was one inning.
It was the first inning of his career.
It was an exhibition game, so he obviously wasn’t going max effort.
It was probably near freezing, as it was an evening game in Michigan.

You shouldn’t base your entire argument on one inning, especially when I specifically mentioned in the article that Norris’ biggest problem is inconsistency, and how his velocity can change dramatically from inning to inning and game to game. He’s only 18 and is years from reaching his peak. This is the equivalent of Jake Marisnick going 0-for-4 in his first game of the year and saying he’ll never be able to hit.