Buy low, sell high.
Alex Anthopoulos has followed this adage for much of his tenure as the Blue Jays’ general manager, and to rave reviews.
After struggling to a .225/.269/.348 wOBA .273 line in 49 MLB games last season, Snider’s value is at a low point. His .327/.394/.480 line in AAA may look nice on paper, but you probably already know that those numbers are inflated by the extremely hitter-friendly PCL. The .480 slugging percentage is also qualified by his lackluster .153 ISO, as Snider only managed to hit four home runs in Las Vegas last year.
When you compare Snider’s potential trade value today to what it was after he destroyed AAA at 21 (wOBA .462/48 G), or when he played respectable ball in the majors at 22 in 2010 (wOBA .331/82 G), his value is clearly at an all time low.
The Jays need to give Snider the job in left field in 2012 and see what happens; his upside is too great to cut and run. Eric Thames is a decent player, but I don’t believe he is going to hit enough as a corner outfielder to make up for his below average defense. Thames is the type of player the Jays should consider moving, as he has low upside and is coming off a good season.
Maybe Snider will fulfill his potential in 2012, maybe he won’t, but at the very least the Jays need to give him the opportunity to increase his value.