Jays Draft Review: Sign 8 Players Taken in First 4 Rounds of 2011 Draft

 When Alex Anthopoulos spoke to the media and stated that he was happy with the way the 2011 draft wound up for the Toronto Blue Jays, I completely understood why. Not only did the Jays add 8 players taken in the first 4 rounds of the 2011 draft to their already top-notch minors system, but they also added a few players selected later that were projected to be first round or sandwich pick talents. Getting those players under contract has resulted in what I would call a phenomely successful draft class for the Jays, this despite not coming to an agreement with their first round pick, Tyler Beede.

Before I get into my thoughts on the draft, I’ll recap the players signed to contracts where the reported amount of the bonus is known (rd taken in brackets):

  • Jacob Anderson (1S) $990,000
  • Joe Musgrove (1S) $500,000
  • Dwight Smith Jr (1S) $800,000
  • Kevin Comer (1S) $1,650,000
  • Daniel Norris (2) $2,000,000
  • Jeremy Grabryszwski (2) $575,000
  • John Stilson (3) $500,000
  • Thomas Robson (4) $375,000
  • Christian Lopes (7) $800,000
  • Mark Biggs (8) $600,000
  • Matt Dean (13) $737,500

Overall, the amounts of bonuses we know the Jays gave out is approximately $9.8 million. However, if we assume that Anthony DeSclafani (6), Andrew Burns (11), Jonathon Berti (18), and Brady Dragmire (17) got $500K, $300K, $200K, and 200K respectively, and that the remainder of the draft picks signed got a minimum of $50K, the Jays spent $11.7675 million as a minimum in this draft year. If it’s a decent approximation, this makes it the second year in a row that the Jays exceed the $11 million mark after they spent $11.594 million in 2010 and they would come close to – if not exceed - the amount that the Nationals paid out that season ($11.927) despite having to sign Bryce Harper to a massive deal. Whether or not the Jays exceed what the Nationals spent in 2010, they will undoubtedly once again be in the top 5-7 spending teams in MLB when it comes to draft bonuses.

The best Tweets of the night, as the bonuses came in, included one by Wonderthought which was sent to @DanielNorris18 and stated “When Daniel Norris throws a baseball at the sea, it parts.” In case you are unaware of why the reference was made, Norris is a very religiously conscious individual, which makes the parting of the Red Sea reference more clever. Before I signed off of Twitter last night, I predicted, through the deductive reasoning I based on “Tweet-ittude”, that both Norris and Comer would sign, while Beede would walk, and I was not disappointed.

However, I’d like to look at this year’s draft as a huge positive for many reasons, and here they are in no certain order:

  • In 2010, the Jays signed 35 players of 54. This year, a similar number with 35 of 55!
  • In 2010, the Jays were the 3rd highest spending team in the draft. This year, they should be close to that again.
  • In 2010, the Jays really focused on pitching and its highest ceilinged pitchers. In 2011, they also focused on pitching, but also added some of the best bats in the class in Jacob Anderson, Dwight Smith Jr, Matt Dean, and Christian Lopes. To me, this was extremely important so that the Jays could ensure the pitching was supported in the future by some excellent position players. Reportedly, Anderson has huge power potential, Dean was the best 3B prep bat, Lopes may have been the best SS in the class, and Smith can simply do it all with tremendous talent. The hitters drafted in 2010 were not nearly as impressive as any of these guys and I don’t believe any of them can challenge these 4 players talent and potential wise. Perhaps Dickie Thon and Marcus Knecht could challenge them, but that’s about it.
  • In 2010, the Jays landed the just mentioned Knecht, a native of Toronto, as a prominent Canadian draft pick. In 2011, the Jays also took a prominent Canadian pick in Thomas Robson who definitely has the potential to make it to The Show. They also added and signed Justin Atkinson and Eric Brown who both hail from British Columbia.
  • When we objectively look at the top 9 picks the Jays made within the first 4 rounds of the draft, and realize that 3 others belonged in the 1S or 2nd rounds (Matt Dean, Christian Lopes, and Mark Biggs), we get the realistic view that missing out on 1 within that group isn’t a big deal in the least, particularly when the Jays will be compensated with a similar pick in 2012 (the 22nd pick overall). In truth, the Jays added 11 players worthy of top 4 round selections in this draft, and that’s quite a haul for any team to add in one draft class.
  • I’d also like to point out that there are a few players that are really opening up some eyes after being drafted in the late rounds of the 2011 draft. OF Eric Arce (19) (.286/.450/.639 with 12 HRs in 133 ABs), SP David Rollins (21) (4-0 with 1.71 ERA and only 3 BB in 35 IP, 29 Ks), and 2B Jonathon Berti (21) (.319/.407/.410 with 7 extra base hits and 16 SB in 144 ABs) in particular have really come out of the gates very strong. Arce had been projected as a top 4 rd pick until he got into trouble, so he very well may make good on that promise, which would provide the Jays with 12 players worthy of top 4 round selections in this draft. Meanwhile, the 44th rd pick, RP Colby Broussard, has a 1.85 ERA with 6 saves, 8 BB, and 16 Ks in the GCL. The point is that there could be a lot of gems in this draft class for the Jays, and they are not all going to come from the top of the board.

Already Loaded With Pitching Talent

I don’t like to point this out since it may sound a little odd, but there are only so many spots to go around in the Jays minors system, and there are only so many spots in the big league rotation/roster to be had. Alex Anthopoulos likes to talk about “waves” of talent to come aboard year after year in order to provide the Jays with chances at championships. Well, if we look at the way things currently look across the system – including the majors – we get the following view of possible impact pitching:

When you look down that list, and see a very young rotation, you realize that there are few spots available in the near future. Then you see a preliminary potential ace filled rotation of 5 of the following pitchers: Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Drew Hutchison, Noah Syndergaard, Justin Nicolino, and Adonys Cardona for the 2015 season, and then have to conside how you’ll work guys like Aaron Sanchez, Joel Carreno, Nestor Molina, and others into the mix, you get a sense of where I’m headed with this. The Jays are actually served fairly well in getting the 22nd overall pick in 2012 so that they can have yet another “wave” of talent with 2 first round picks from the 2012 class, as well as their usual few sandwich picks. If the Jays decide to use these picks for…say…a few College bats that are very close to major league ready, all of the sudden you’ve got a mix of extremely talented pitching coming up the ranks and the bats in the lineup to support them. If they decide to grab more pitching, because you never have enough pitching, they have the ammunition usually required to go out there and grab whatever it is they’re missing on the trade market.

The New Wave

If we “project” where the best starting pitchers of the 2011 class to be the following: Daniel Norris, Kevin Comer, Jeremy Gabryszwski, Thomas Robson, Anthony DeSclafani, and Mark Biggs, then the Jays have just added yet another “wave” of talent set to take over down the pipe line. Of the 6 pitchers, 5 are out of High School, which tells us that the majority of these guys will take over spots with the GCL and Bluefield Jays. Meanwhile, the others move up the ranks, and the waves coordinate one behind the other to provide the Jays with an enviable amount of pitching talent down the pipe.

Added to the International Signings

Oh, and I’m not done yet. We also have to remember that ealier this year, the Jays also signed some international free agents. The aformentioned Osman Gutierrez (16) was signed by the Jays for $210K, Dawel Lugo (16) – a first round talent to be sure – was signed for $1.3 million, SS/OF Wilmer Beccera, RHP Manuel Cardoba, and OF Jesus Gonzalez. All of these players add to the work the Jays have done in the draft and provide them with more top 4 type talents in the organization. In fact, the more I think about it, the more I consider the possibility that Alex Anthopoulos and his scouting team now work in this fashion: if you’re not a top 4 round type talent, you really have to impress us to make any of our minors clubs, because we’re going to fill those teams with so much talent that you won’t get much in the way of playing time if your talent isn’t up to par.

When added to the $3.5 million they spent on Adonys Cardona and Gabriel Cenas and the $10 million given to Adeiny Hechavarria, it’s evident that the Jays will continue to be part of the top 6 spending teams in the international market.

Wait a minute….let’s review. Under Alex Anthopoulos, the Jays are within the top 3 spending teams of both drafts he has managed, and are also within the top 6 international market spending teams. What does that result in? A massive amount of talent coming up the minors system, the likes of which Jays fans have never witnessed.

Later Tyler Beede!

After knowing this, I’m supposed to be “sad” or “angry” that Tyler Beede decided to do what 99.9% of people in his position couldn’t bring themselves to do: say no to $2.5 million? I don’t think so. In fact, I’ll go out on a limb and will say this: in 3 years, at some point in time, Tyler Beede and his father Walter will both regret not taking the bonus money from the Jays. Not only will the Jays be competing for championships every year at that point, but he’ll get drafted by a team that certainly won’t be a “contender”, if he actually makes good on his promise as a pitcher. If he doesn’t make good on his promise as a pitcher, or gets injured – always a big possibility for pitchers – he may wind up with half a million dollars or less. I look at what Vanderbilt’s Grayson Garvin got after a fairly successful career there, $370K, and I think to myself that Beede could possibly wind up in the very same spot.

If Beede is attending Vanderbilt because he truly wanted to get the College experience and doesn’t really care about becoming a pro, then he made the right choice. However, if he made the decision based on his belief that he would get Gerrit Cole type money in 2014, he is likely in for a reality shock. A lot can happen between now and then. Slotting systems could change, and likely will, injuries could occur, or he could find himself being less effective against better hitting.

Finally, Tyler stated that he and his father placed the value of a Vanderbilt education at more than $2.5 million. What? Really? I’m fairly certain that $2.5 million would more than cover the costs of the education, and that the Jays were more than willing to cover those costs as they have done with numerous other picks. Don’t go around making things up Tyler, just say it as it is: you didn’t want to be a pro, you wanted more money, and you couldn’t care less about becoming a Toronto Blue Jays pitcher. That package of thoughts has me somewhat happy that he didn’t sign, and very hopeful that the Jays will find similar – if not better – talent in the 2012 draft with the 22nd overall pick.

I believe his not signing with the Jays was a huge mistake on his part, but that it won’t affect the Jays negatively at all if they use the 2012 pick effectively.

Final Draft Thoughts

When you add three first round pitching talents (Norris, Comer, and Stilson), the best 3B prep of the draft (Dean), and a top 3 SS prospect of the draft (Lopes) in one draft class, you know you’ve done extremely well. Add in the rest of the potential that the Jays invested in this year and you’ve got a very successful draft class overall. The Jays stuck to their game plan by not throwing money at Beede and also sent a message to future Jays draft picks. The message is this: yes, we have money to spend, but once we place a value on you as a draft pick, we are not budging. Take it, or leave it, that’s what we’re offering you. Not only was that important in Beede’s case in order to ensure the Jays got fair value if they signed him, but it’s so very important that the expectations are set by this precedent.

The Jays were able to play hard ball with Beede for one simply reason: they had added enough top 1-4 rd talent throughout the draft to ensure that it was going to be a successful draft, with or without Beede included. I’ve counted up to 12 players in this draft that could feasibly be viewed as top 4 rd talents for the Jays. That’s 3 picks per round on average for the first 4 rounds folks. If the Jays and their fans can’t call that, and the money it took to get them signed, a successful draft year, I’d be stunned.

Alex Anthopoulos and Andrew Tinnish did an exemplarary job in the 2011 draft. They gave the Jays plenty of talent to work with, invested plenty to make sure the Jays are within the top teams in terms of talent added, and they have now set a precedent that should affect future draft years positively. Whether a hard slotting system goes into place or not, the Jays will not over-value draft picks, and that’s a great thing for the franchise. With some cash “saved” from this class after not signing Beede, I could envision the Jays spending a little more on the international market in the future. With guys like Yu Darvish and other set to enter that market, every penny counts!

When the Jays completed their 2011 draft, Jim Callis of BA and others proclaimed that they had been one of the most aggressive teams in selecting “hard to sign” players. Well, they signed 5 of the 6 hardest to sign players from the class (Smith, Norris, Comer, Dean, and Lopes), so how can I not grade this draft accordingly?

Draft Grade: A

- MG

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  • rafaelpohlak

    Thanks Matt !!! I was waiting for this write-up.

    I was reading the major newspapers for a draft signing summary and was left unsatisfied this morning.

    Your’s is a great complete story.

    I wasn’t upset about missing Beede either for all of the reasons you stated… including the message to future draft picks (and already signed ones too – don’t want to encourage regrets amongst the guys who have signed up… ).

    I don’t feel any need to second guess Beede though. Jays are fine with 22nd overall next year instead. Time will determine if he ends up happy with his decision.

    I love the strategy that the Jays are employing under AA.

    The major newspapers that focus on only the top draft picks are missing the story .. and getting many fans worked up for nothing.

  • rafaelpohlak

    Thanks Matt !!! I was waiting for this write-up.

    I was reading the major newspapers for a draft signing summary and was left unsatisfied this morning.

    Your’s is a great complete story.

    I wasn’t upset about missing Beede either for all of the reasons you stated… including the message to future draft picks (and already signed ones too – don’t want to encourage regrets amongst the guys who have signed up… ).

    I don’t feel any need to second guess Beede though. Jays are fine with 22nd overall next year instead. Time will determine if he ends up happy with his decision.

    I love the strategy that the Jays are employing under AA.

    The major newspapers that focus on only the top draft picks are missing the story .. and getting many fans worked up for nothing.

  • jaysfan#2

    How are we going to beat the Red Sox and Yankees if we cant sign our first pick

  • jaysfan#2

    How are we going to beat the Red Sox and Yankees if we cant sign our first pick

  • jaysfan#2

    @rafaelpohlak You weren’t upset not signing our first pick ???? umm why ?? You do realize thats a missed opportunity

  • jaysfan#2

    @rafaelpohlak You weren’t upset not signing our first pick ???? umm why ?? You do realize thats a missed opportunity

  • sam1

    Get off Darvish. AA has said Darvish and the Asian market doesn’t make sense and the posting fee and contract will likely push $100 million. I don’t see where that fits in with anything the Jays are doing right now?

    I think this site has plenty of good information and I admire your enthusiasm towards the Jays. But some of the stuff you guys write amounts to senseless jingoism. Projections of players needs to be toned down, I mean you’re anointing guys the heir apparent to Doc Halladay in Rookie ball.

    The draft by and large was a success, but any time a team fails to sign their first rounder questions need to be asked.

  • sam1

    Get off Darvish. AA has said Darvish and the Asian market doesn’t make sense and the posting fee and contract will likely push $100 million. I don’t see where that fits in with anything the Jays are doing right now?

    I think this site has plenty of good information and I admire your enthusiasm towards the Jays. But some of the stuff you guys write amounts to senseless jingoism. Projections of players needs to be toned down, I mean you’re anointing guys the heir apparent to Doc Halladay in Rookie ball.

    The draft by and large was a success, but any time a team fails to sign their first rounder questions need to be asked.

  • jaysfan#2

    thank you Sam,,, finally some intelligence

    @sam1

  • jaysfan#2

    thank you Sam,,, finally some intelligence

    @sam1

  • sam1

    @jaysfan#2 Just to reiterate, I enjoy reading commentary on the site and the time and effort the people here put into researching the information and writing about it. With that being said, I think they go overboard occasionally and could use a dose of common sense.

  • sam1

    @jaysfan#2 Just to reiterate, I enjoy reading commentary on the site and the time and effort the people here put into researching the information and writing about it. With that being said, I think they go overboard occasionally and could use a dose of common sense.

  • mpolak

    Next year’s draft is supposed to be a lot weaker than this year’s draft plus our pick is unprotected so we have little to no bargaining power. So it is extremely unlikely that we draft anyone with as much upside as Beede with next year’s 22nd pick . I don’t care how you try to spin this but we failed to sign our top pick in a very deep draft so we failed to sign our best shot at an impact player….there is a reason that Norris and Comer were chosen after Beede

  • mpolak

    Next year’s draft is supposed to be a lot weaker than this year’s draft plus our pick is unprotected so we have little to no bargaining power. So it is extremely unlikely that we draft anyone with as much upside as Beede with next year’s 22nd pick . I don’t care how you try to spin this but we failed to sign our top pick in a very deep draft so we failed to sign our best shot at an impact player….there is a reason that Norris and Comer were chosen after Beede

  • jaysfan#2

    Your right I am glad we are all positive and Jays fans.. I just want to be fair… We all like our drafts but in truth not one guy we have drafted has contributed in the big leagues.. If you go on other teams sites they are all happy with there drafts too.. The kid Dyson last year who they talked about as having one of the best arms in the draft is basically done already due to injuries@sam1

  • jaysfan#2

    Your right I am glad we are all positive and Jays fans.. I just want to be fair… We all like our drafts but in truth not one guy we have drafted has contributed in the big leagues.. If you go on other teams sites they are all happy with there drafts too.. The kid Dyson last year who they talked about as having one of the best arms in the draft is basically done already due to injuries@sam1

  • jaysfan#2

    agree can never spin it in a good way when you dont sign your #1 pick … Just admit it and move on good point

    @mpolak

  • jaysfan#2

    agree can never spin it in a good way when you dont sign your #1 pick … Just admit it and move on good point

    @mpolak

  • jaysfan#2

    If you look at the Red Sox draft they signed Barnes, Swihart, Henry and J. Bradley .. If you go by rankings all those guys were ranked higher than Beede with the exception of Henry. So we didnt gain any ground on the top team in the division in this years draft

  • jaysfan#2

    If you look at the Red Sox draft they signed Barnes, Swihart, Henry and J. Bradley .. If you go by rankings all those guys were ranked higher than Beede with the exception of Henry. So we didnt gain any ground on the top team in the division in this years draft

  • JaysJournal

    @jaysfan#2 Did the Red Sox sign a player on the international market that rivals Dawel Lugo or Adonys Cardona?

    Besides, nothing is ever guaranteed and ratings are very subjective. All I know is that Daniel Norris, Kevin Comer, and Matt Dean were all 1st round talents, while Anderson, Musgrove, Lopes, and Biggs were all sandwich/2nd rd talents. If that’s not enough to compete….that’s completely absurd.

  • JaysJournal

    @jaysfan#2 Did the Red Sox sign a player on the international market that rivals Dawel Lugo or Adonys Cardona?

    Besides, nothing is ever guaranteed and ratings are very subjective. All I know is that Daniel Norris, Kevin Comer, and Matt Dean were all 1st round talents, while Anderson, Musgrove, Lopes, and Biggs were all sandwich/2nd rd talents. If that’s not enough to compete….that’s completely absurd.

  • JaysJournal

    @mpolak Really? Predicting the 2012 class before they can even play their season? Even the BA gang would be impressed! I’m not going to predict anything, but I’ll place my money on AA’s premium scouting staff any time of day.

  • JaysJournal

    @mpolak Really? Predicting the 2012 class before they can even play their season? Even the BA gang would be impressed! I’m not going to predict anything, but I’ll place my money on AA’s premium scouting staff any time of day.

  • JaysJournal

    @sam1 hmmm, jingoism. You can say “stuff” and “jingoism” in the same paragraph. Either write as an academic or write as a “regular Joe”! First, I made no reference to Doc above. I said that the Jays have a “preliminary potential ace filled rotation”, that’s not the same thing. It includes lots of projection, and you know what, that’s exactly what the draft is, wagers made on projections.

    The only question that needs to be asked is why $2.5 million wasn’t enough for Mr. Beede. Does he really believe he’s close to twice as good as Daniel Norris? Because if he did get his $3.5 million, that’s exactly what the Jays would be saying. Beede was asking for top 10 money in this draft, and he was NOT a top 8 talent in the draft.

  • JaysJournal

    @sam1 hmmm, jingoism. You can say “stuff” and “jingoism” in the same paragraph. Either write as an academic or write as a “regular Joe”! First, I made no reference to Doc above. I said that the Jays have a “preliminary potential ace filled rotation”, that’s not the same thing. It includes lots of projection, and you know what, that’s exactly what the draft is, wagers made on projections.

    The only question that needs to be asked is why $2.5 million wasn’t enough for Mr. Beede. Does he really believe he’s close to twice as good as Daniel Norris? Because if he did get his $3.5 million, that’s exactly what the Jays would be saying. Beede was asking for top 10 money in this draft, and he was NOT a top 8 talent in the draft.

  • JaysJournal

    @sam1 hmmm, jingoism. You can’t say “stuff” and “jingoism” in the same paragraph. Either write as an academic or write as a “regular Joe”! First, I made no reference to Doc above. I said that the Jays have a “preliminary potential ace filled rotation”, that’s not the same thing. It includes lots of projection, and you know what, that’s exactly what the draft is, wagers made on projections. The only question that needs to be asked is why $2.5 million wasn’t enough for Mr. Beede. Does he really believe he’s close to twice as good as Daniel Norris? Because if he did get his $3.5 million, that’s exactly what the Jays would be saying. Beede was asking for top 10 money in this draft, and he was NOT a top 10 talent in this draft.

    As for Yu Darvish, time will tell. The Jays may or may not get involved. Either way, they’ll be able to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox.

  • rafaelpohlak

    @jaysfan#2 I’d rather he signed but the Jays need to negotiate a lot of contracts every year. Throwing an extra million whenever you are less than sure someone will bite at deadline will put you over budget quick. Reality is that its a crap shoot which higher round pick developed or not. Its also a crap shoot which pick will accept your offer at deadline regardless of what they say in negotiating. Therefore even the best possible strategy for offering contracts will lose some. We lost one. Compensation isn’t bad. Even if weaker draft supposedly and even though un-protected/ need someone more sign-able.. We signed a lot of top picks… some that others didn’t think would sign e.g. Norris. I don’t feel remotely qualified to second guess the max value the Jays put on Beede. I’m happy with the haul this year.

  • rafaelpohlak

    @jaysfan#2 I’d rather he signed but the Jays need to negotiate a lot of contracts every year. Throwing an extra million whenever you are less than sure someone will bite at deadline will put you over budget quick. Reality is that its a crap shoot which higher round pick developed or not. Its also a crap shoot which pick will accept your offer at deadline regardless of what they say in negotiating. Therefore even the best possible strategy for offering contracts will lose some. We lost one. Compensation isn’t bad. Even if weaker draft supposedly and even though un-protected/ need someone more sign-able.. We signed a lot of top picks… some that others didn’t think would sign e.g. Norris. I don’t feel remotely qualified to second guess the max value the Jays put on Beede. I’m happy with the haul this year.

  • JaysJournal

    @sam1 hmmm, jingoism. You can’t say “stuff” and “jingoism” in the same paragraph. Either write as an academic or write as a “regular Joe”! First, I made no reference to Doc above. I said that the Jays have a “preliminary potential ace filled rotation”, that’s not the same thing. It includes lots of projection, and you know what, that’s exactly what the draft is, wagers made on projections. The only question that needs to be asked is why $2.5 million wasn’t enough for Mr. Beede. Does he really believe he’s close to twice as good as Daniel Norris? Because if he did get his $3.5 million, that’s exactly what the Jays would be saying. Beede was asking for top 10 money in this draft, and he was NOT a top 10 talent in the draft.

    As for Darvish, time will tell. I’m not sure any team will want to spend as the Red Sox did on Dice-K, so the price may be much lower than anticipated. Whether the Jays get involved or not, they’ll be able to compete with the big guns. In AA we trust.

  • JaysJournal

    @sam1 hmmm, jingoism. You can’t say “stuff” and “jingoism” in the same paragraph. Either write as an academic or write as a “regular Joe”! First, I made no reference to Doc above. I said that the Jays have a “preliminary potential ace filled rotation”, that’s not the same thing. It includes lots of projection, and you know what, that’s exactly what the draft is, wagers made on projections. The only question that needs to be asked is why $2.5 million wasn’t enough for Mr. Beede. Does he really believe he’s close to twice as good as Daniel Norris? Because if he did get his $3.5 million, that’s exactly what the Jays would be saying. Beede was asking for top 10 money in this draft, and he was NOT a top 10 talent in the draft.

    As for Darvish, time will tell. I’m not sure any team will want to spend as the Red Sox did on Dice-K, so the price may be much lower than anticipated. Whether the Jays get involved or not, they’ll be able to compete with the big guns. In AA we trust.

  • JaysJournal

    @jaysfan#2 @rafaelpohlak What do you not get about receiving compensation the following season? What’s 1 yr to a system already ranked in the top 3 in all of MLB?

  • JaysJournal

    @jaysfan#2 @rafaelpohlak What do you not get about receiving compensation the following season? What’s 1 yr to a system already ranked in the top 3 in all of MLB?

  • JaysJournal

    @jaysfan#2 Youth, Talent, and a TON of Pitching. That’s how we’re going to beat them, and that’s all AA has added since he took over. Escobar, Rasmus, Lawrie, Cardona, Syndergaard, Sanchez, McGuire, ect… Wait until the experts let us know which minors systems are best in MLB. AA took this team from #24 to #4th overall last season. I expect the Jays will be top 3 this time around, possibly even at the very top. That’s how we’re going to beat the Red Sox and Yankees.

  • JaysJournal

    @jaysfan#2 Youth, Talent, and a TON of Pitching. That’s how we’re going to beat them, and that’s all AA has added since he took over. Escobar, Rasmus, Lawrie, Cardona, Syndergaard, Sanchez, McGuire, ect… Wait until the experts let us know which minors systems are best in MLB. AA took this team from #24 to #4th overall last season. I expect the Jays will be top 3 this time around, possibly even at the very top. That’s how we’re going to beat the Red Sox and Yankees.

  • Mylegacy

    Lots of great responses to a GREAT post by Mat!

    A couple of my own comments…

    Beede isn’t saying a Vandy degree “costs” 2.5 million he’s saying … “a Vandy degree will ADD 2.5 million to what he’d have earned over his lifetime if he had a degree from a State University – for instance.” In other words he’s saying both his scholarship to Vandy and his offer from the Jay’s are BOTH worth about the same – SO – if he goes to college and then in a few years gets – lets say – 2 million from a team when then drafted – he’s UP 2 million. I understand his reasoning – he’s risking the unknown (injury/accident/etc) against a sober analysis of what he should do. Right choice or wrong choice? Ask me when he’s 65 and I’ll tell you. I wish the kid success.

    As to AA’s “Drafting System” – I think it’s pure genius – as Mat says – he is mostly interested in “upside” – he’s taken (and signed) guys after the first couple of rounds like Andrew Burns (who didn’t even PLAY in 2011 but may be a fantastic SS), Matt Dean (best HS 3rd baseman with VERY strong commitment to U of Texas), John Stilson (injured arm BUT terrific when healthy), Eric Arce ( a Matt Stairs dead ringer {That’s what Tammy over at the “Southpaw” thinks and I agree}) and OTHERS – knowing he can’t sign them all – but – HE DOESN’T NEED to sign them all – just 75% of them and he’ll have a wonderful system. AND – it’s working.

    As to Yu – I just don’t see it. At least 100 million when all is said and done – if the guy gets injured – that might be just an Albatross Too Heavy even for AA and the Jay’s to wear. However, Yu and Big Daddy’s bouncing baby boy Prince – wow – that just might be so sweet, so very sweet.

    Oh well I can dream can’t I?

  • Mylegacy

    Lots of great responses to a GREAT post by Mat!

    A couple of my own comments…

    Beede isn’t saying a Vandy degree “costs” 2.5 million he’s saying … “a Vandy degree will ADD 2.5 million to what he’d have earned over his lifetime if he had a degree from a State University – for instance.” In other words he’s saying both his scholarship to Vandy and his offer from the Jay’s are BOTH worth about the same – SO – if he goes to college and then in a few years gets – lets say – 2 million from a team when then drafted – he’s UP 2 million. I understand his reasoning – he’s risking the unknown (injury/accident/etc) against a sober analysis of what he should do. Right choice or wrong choice? Ask me when he’s 65 and I’ll tell you. I wish the kid success.

    As to AA’s “Drafting System” – I think it’s pure genius – as Mat says – he is mostly interested in “upside” – he’s taken (and signed) guys after the first couple of rounds like Andrew Burns (who didn’t even PLAY in 2011 but may be a fantastic SS), Matt Dean (best HS 3rd baseman with VERY strong commitment to U of Texas), John Stilson (injured arm BUT terrific when healthy), Eric Arce ( a Matt Stairs dead ringer {That’s what Tammy over at the “Southpaw” thinks and I agree}) and OTHERS – knowing he can’t sign them all – but – HE DOESN’T NEED to sign them all – just 75% of them and he’ll have a wonderful system. AND – it’s working.

    As to Yu – I just don’t see it. At least 100 million when all is said and done – if the guy gets injured – that might be just an Albatross Too Heavy even for AA and the Jay’s to wear. However, Yu and Big Daddy’s bouncing baby boy Prince – wow – that just might be so sweet, so very sweet.

    Oh well I can dream can’t I?

  • catalyst

    The reason Norris and Comer were chosen after Beede was because they were thought harder to sign than Beede (a safer bet among the 3-who knew?)

    One scout said, if teams knew they could sign Norris for the amount of money the Jays spent, they would have taken him in a heart beat and before Beede.

  • catalyst

    The reason Norris and Comer were chosen after Beede was because they were thought harder to sign than Beede (a safer bet among the 3-who knew?)

    One scout said, if teams knew they could sign Norris for the amount of money the Jays spent, they would have taken him in a heart beat and before Beede.

  • catalyst

    Only you are anointing guys heir apparent to Halladay? He did no such thing but in your own mind. Look around, do you see another Halladay in the AL? so why would he say something like that? He said, we have wave after wave of talented pitchers and he is right.

    What questions need to be asked? why he didn’t sign? he wanted more money and the Jays didn’t think he was worth more.

  • catalyst

    Only you are anointing guys heir apparent to Halladay? He did no such thing but in your own mind. Look around, do you see another Halladay in the AL? so why would he say something like that? He said, we have wave after wave of talented pitchers and he is right.

    What questions need to be asked? why he didn’t sign? he wanted more money and the Jays didn’t think he was worth more.

  • catalyst

    What would you rather. Signing 50 safe picks or 20 aggressive picks? @jaysfan#2 @rafaelpohlak

  • catalyst

    What would you rather. Signing 50 safe picks or 20 aggressive picks? @jaysfan#2 @rafaelpohlak

  • catalyst

    Great read!! Couldn’t agree more.

  • catalyst

    Great read!! Couldn’t agree more.

  • sam1

    @catalyst Sorry, in previous references to Syndergaard there were references to Roy Halladay. I think it’s a pattern of expectations that just get ridiculous after a while. I think at one point Arencibia was predicted to have an all-star calibre year this year. Nobody would predict that. For a first year catcher with obp and average issues in the minor leagues? I’m sorry. I was not annointing anyone? So I’m confused as to your assertion. I agree the Jays have several very promising pitching prospects who are all probably two years away from contributing and then another couple years from being good major league pitchers. However, the vast majority of them flame out, stagnate, and take a while to truly become successful major league pitchers. This expectation that a pitcher excelling at AA or Rookie ball is going to be an integral part of a winning ball club within a couple years is pushing it. I mean guys take time to develop. Look at the vast majority of Rays pitchers. The majority of them either came with more more hype and track record of success than any of the Jays pitchers currently in the system. They’ve all at points struggled in their first couple years, before becoming good pitchers. At the end of the year, there might be one Jays pitcher, maybe two on BA’s top 100.

  • sam1

    @catalyst Sorry, in previous references to Syndergaard there were references to Roy Halladay. I think it’s a pattern of expectations that just get ridiculous after a while. I think at one point Arencibia was predicted to have an all-star calibre year this year. Nobody would predict that. For a first year catcher with obp and average issues in the minor leagues? I’m sorry. I was not annointing anyone? So I’m confused as to your assertion. I agree the Jays have several very promising pitching prospects who are all probably two years away from contributing and then another couple years from being good major league pitchers. However, the vast majority of them flame out, stagnate, and take a while to truly become successful major league pitchers. This expectation that a pitcher excelling at AA or Rookie ball is going to be an integral part of a winning ball club within a couple years is pushing it. I mean guys take time to develop. Look at the vast majority of Rays pitchers. The majority of them either came with more more hype and track record of success than any of the Jays pitchers currently in the system. They’ve all at points struggled in their first couple years, before becoming good pitchers. At the end of the year, there might be one Jays pitcher, maybe two on BA’s top 100.

  • DerekNakluski

    The Jays picked up alot of good players and the way they drafted it appeared they would likely have one or two guys not sign. So the fact that they got all, but one of there top picks is fine with me. I mean the guys they drafted were passed over because they appeared hard to sign so there all talented players and I think the Jays will take a little safer player with the 22nd pick next year likely a college player. Most of the current Jays top players are 1st-3rd round college picks. I don’t see the Jays getting Yu look at the last pitcher from Japan that went to Boston is he even still playing I think he’s had some injuries Dice K. If anything the Jays may go for Prince, likely not though we’ll see. EE has been good at DH of late, but as a whole he will finish with maybe 50 RBI’s I think we can do better then that.

  • DerekNakluski

    The Jays picked up alot of good players and the way they drafted it appeared they would likely have one or two guys not sign. So the fact that they got all, but one of there top picks is fine with me. I mean the guys they drafted were passed over because they appeared hard to sign so there all talented players and I think the Jays will take a little safer player with the 22nd pick next year likely a college player. Most of the current Jays top players are 1st-3rd round college picks. I don’t see the Jays getting Yu look at the last pitcher from Japan that went to Boston is he even still playing I think he’s had some injuries Dice K. If anything the Jays may go for Prince, likely not though we’ll see. EE has been good at DH of late, but as a whole he will finish with maybe 50 RBI’s I think we can do better then that.

  • BJFAN

    @JaysJournal BA would tell you the same thing. But here’s Kendall Rogers of Perfect Game if you’d like some perspective:

    Kendall Rogers: Pete, This year’s draft is MUCH stronger than what the 2012 draft is expected to be.

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