It would be an interesting about-face, should he dip into the ‘A’ list of relievers, which he may have to do if he wants to turn 2012 into a contending year.

What place do the Jays have to finish to get the 1st round draft protection?

However I can’t agree with your conclusion. Unless we see attendance hit 2.5 – 3M this year, AA will continue to use a piece meal solution in the pen. The pen is the last place you target for a contender and there are still too many unknowns:

1 – will Lawrie stick? and will it be at 3B? I still think that there are some in the organization who see him in LF.

2 – who is our long term LF solution? Thames and Snider have done nothing to consider this position safe for the long term.

3 – we are still short a starting pitcher…..I don’t think that we take a wild card with 2 rookies in starting rotation….and what if McGowan makes it all the way back?

4 – Is JP the solution behind the plate? Or is the team better with JP at 1B and D’Arnaud behind the plate?

5 – the black hole we have at 2B.

6 – Are we getting the 2010 or 2011 version of Colby Rasmus?

Given all of these questions, I see AA holding off in the off season and targeting a starter via trade or Yu Darvish. I don’t think he will give large coin to a closer simply because of what you said, there are far too many starting pitchers coming up the ranks who may not have a place in this rotation. If they don’t have a place in the rotation what use are they? We don’t keep them for AAA. So:

1 – they can either be surplus and used in a trade OR

2 – We use them out of the pen.

Lastly if the attendance is good at the start of next year and the club starts off strong, he can likely deal these young arms for a established closer in a deal that some say he is over paying.

Interesting and provocative as always. I was actually (almost) eating out of your hand until you said – gasp – gulp – we might keep blah,blah,blah,Rauch,blah,blah,blah – personally I would rather give up scotch for two years (er – make that two days – I don’t want to be too extreme) than have Rauch within 6,000 miles of my ballpark. Other than that – I sorta liked your piece.

Last year AA brought in THREE potential closers – (don’t ask) Dotel, the (San) Francisco Treat and last and least, the (cock) Rauch. Surely, one of them had to be more reliable than a 1953 Studebaker – but – sigh – they weren’t. And I kinda liked the 1953 Studebaker (just in case you didn’t know it was the first Italian designed American car – not that that did it any good).

The Jays REAL PROBLEM this off-season is that the offense is getting mostly manned by actual legitimate “contending quality” bodies while the pitching is still a fair ways from being a contending group of starters and relievers. AA’s biggest problem is that the first wave of pitchers that will replenish the starters and fill the bullpen (Alvarez, Hutchison, Molina, McGuire, Carreno, Jenkins and AsherW) are all a half a year to a year and a half away from being HONESTLY ready for prime time. SO – does AA blow the bank to “bridge” that 6 to 18 month period? I think he WON’T.

I think he wants to see HIS PLAN through and while he’ll go get some shiny pieces to complement the existing players – I just don’t see him making a BIG splash this off-season…..unless….he can actually get the rights to and then sign Yu Darvish.

IF that happens then all bets are off – and the FUTURE may just become NOW – and fasten your seat belts!