But so what? You know what these guys are demanding, I know it and Alex Anthopoulos definitely knows it. And he knew it when he drafted them. And he will still sign them. In fact, I will buy you a drink if at least two of those three don’t sign.

The fact is, at the prices these guys want, even if the Jays have already agreed to it (as many rumours state regarding Beede), MLB won’t sign off on the deal until Aug. 14/15.

Look at all the high-ceiling young arms AA drafted last year. remember how many signed hard by the deadline?

Here are some names of over-slot signings from last year who signed too late to make a debut:

Deck McGuire, Griffin Murphy, Justin Nicolino, San Dyson (other issues there, too, I know), Dickie Joe Thon ($1.5M in the 5th round), Mitchell Taylor, Brandon Mims, Zak Adams, Myles Jaye, Adaric Kelly, Seth Connor.

AA knows, like all other insiders, that the absolute best value for getting elite talent is through the draft. Even if you overpay, it is still way cheaper than getting comparable talent through trades or free agency. He is doing the right thing and by August 15, the Jays organization will be that much stronger for it.

All three of these kids are going to a school that will virtually guarantee them that kind of bonus in 30 months. They will each pitch more, in front of more fans, with better hands on coaching, and get a free college degree if they go to school. It’s not really all that difficult to figure out. Either Toronto will pay these kids $3 mil or more, or they are all three going to college.

The high-round guy least likely to sign is probably Andrew Chin who just had TJS and still wants over $1 million.

Yes, there were reports that Beede’s father had made that statement, but there is not a single person in the industry who does not believe that the Jays and Beede have already come to an agreement. The MLB draft is not fantasy baseball. As AA has said many times (and he’s right), the average draft class, rounds 1-50 usually nets 2-3 MLB players. Not even MLB regulars, but players. Furthermore, the ones who pan out are usually the ones who require good money to sign, because they are good. So AA wants to lay it all on the line, and try to draft 5-6 future MLB players. He’ll spend a bit more up front to achieve that, but the potential for success far outweighs the marginal dollars spent on signing bonuses. Also, while it’s a shame that they can’t get the new kids under contract quick, in today’s draft economics, that usually simply means the kids are good enough to warrant bigger dollars. Think of all of the young superstars in the game. How many of them began their professional careers in the summer they were drafted? Not many, right? It’s because they held out for bigger signing bonuses. I’ll also bet you that the GM’s who signed the cheques (assuming they are still employed) don’t regret those guys at all.