Comments on: The Jays Need Better 4-5 Starters For a 2011 Run

By: rickstar

rickstar — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 21:09:24 +0000

Uh, they need more than that, they better than the likes of bats like jason nix, rajai davis, aaron hill, arencebia, and juan rivera, too.

By: blueboo

blueboo — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 18:02:43 +0000

The blue Jays aren’t going to make run in second half. The Blue Jays are going to begin to sort out their future this year. It will be trial and error. Guys like Villy and Reyes will figure into trading fodder. Stick with the plan!

By: siggian

siggian — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 17:51:18 +0000

I’m thinking Dustin’s diabetes played a role in this decision too. Perhaps they decided it’s easier to maintain his blood sugar as a starter than as a reliever.

By: George

George — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 17:39:03 +0000

Why are we talking about Dustin McGowan returning as a starter? The Jays made it perfectly clear as far back as April 13 that he was headed for the bullpen. Read it here: http://atmlb.com/m2VUJS
I just don’t know why everybody is down on Jose Reyes. Here’s a power lefty that throws in the mid-90s, with good breaking stuff, that’s finally starting to figure things out. He’s won 3 of his last 6 outings, and aside from his last forgettable start, he’s managed to go out there and keep his team in the game most times.
It’s also ludicrous to be talking about a playoff run this year. It’s quite obvious that the entire rotation is young and inconsistent, and aside from Joey Bats and Lind, the hitting is not nearly good enough to play against good pitching. If by some miracle the 5 teams ahead of Toronto in the Wild Card Race fell on their collective faces and collapsed, it is highly unlikely that Toronto would see game 4 of the playoffs.
In order to make a playoff run and succeed in the palyoffs, they need a pitching staff with enough experience under their belt to be consistent and good; they need good defense (which they have); and they need a lineup that can manufacture runs against good pitching. The Jays have 1 out of 3, and it will be a few years before the other things come to fruition.

By: NoScoutHere

NoScoutHere — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 16:49:41 +0000

Matt i like reading your blog because you like to post different topics of interest.

The bluejays already knew beginning of the season that this season was a lost cause. The fact that Nix is still on the team is all you need to know.

I have shut down for the season and now will wait for next spring training to get excited about the jays again.

Too Bad !

By: Mat Germain

Mat Germain — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 15:54:42 +0000

Thanks for the comment Mike,

I think that having a set program and expecting him to be able to start every 5th game are two different things. If he can pull it off, on the advice of Dr.Andrews…great! I’ll be the very first one to clap like a mad man. But, judging from the dozens of other pitchers that have had 2 shoulder surgeries and tried to return as starters, I can honestly say that I don’t expect him to return at all, and if he does, he won’t be half as effective as he would have been as a reliever.

But hey, that’s just me!

By: Mat Germain

Mat Germain — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 15:49:53 +0000

I agree with you Steve, the Jays shouldn’t rush anyone, but at 24 years old and with a decent amount of AA dominance under his belt, Carreno is the most likely to do well if called on. He’s on the 40-man roster, and if the Jays do think that he may wind up in the pen sooner or later, better to see how he does as a starter first. Let Farrell and the guys see what he’s got first hand, and then they can decide how they want to handle him.

As for the closer, that never a predictable bit. What I can tell you is that Zach Stewart has 2 plus pitches and nothing else. From what I saw through his starts, if he added 2-3 MPH on both of his plus pitches, he would be absolutely lights out in the pen, Neftali Feliz style.

Once all of the vets are gone (most likely after this season), I could see a pen that includes Stewart, Marc Rzepczynski, Luis Perez, Danny Farquhar, and Casey Janssen. If Dustin McGowan winds up in the pen as I predict he will, he could join them as well. From that list above, any of Rzep, Stewart, McGowan, and Farquhar could pull ahead and take the closing role. There’s also a chance the Jays will pick up another reliever, such as Heath Bell or Jonathan Papelbon. I do think that Jays management will want at least 1 or 2 vets in the pen that can shut the door, so they’ll either keep Rauch, Camp, and/or Frasor, and move on with the remainder. If they don’t sign a new closer, the vets kept in 2012 will get first dibs while those previously listed seem to be the likeliest to get shots at closing thereafter.

Whether or not Carreno winds up in the pen, I think that when you compare his AA stats to those of Drabek and Stewart, you see a guy who should have a much easier time in The Show when he gets his shot. I could be wrong, but I believe we’ll see him in 2011. Even if it is as late as in September.

By: Steve

Steve — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 14:41:25 +0000

Great analysis. I think you’re bang on with Reyes, although I think he has done a better job than what his last 2 starts would indicate. On the year, he has failed to last 5 innings on 5 occassions, however 3 of those were in April and even including his last 2 starts, he is averaging right around 6 innings per start over May and June, which is what you want from a # 5. Litsch, on the other hand, lasted at least 5 innings in every single start before he got injured. That makes Litsch the better option. I agree that Reyes trade value would still be quite low and he might be more valuable to the Jays as a lefty in the pen than any return we could get from him. As for Cecil, he was very good for the Jays last year and should improve as he is still in the develoing stage. By all accounts his velocity is back up at least closer to where it was last year and so I think he will help stabilize the rotation. What I don’t agree with you on is seeing Carreno or Alvarez this year. Anthopolous has been doing a great job of building up organizational depth so that he doesn’t have to rush up his prospects. I’m even wondering if Carreno might be a candidate for the closer job 3 or 4 years down the road. If there are injuries to the top 5, there are plenty of other candidates and I also fully expect to see Drabek back before the end of the year.

By: jerkstore

jerkstore — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 14:07:23 +0000

I am pretty sure i read it was on the advice of james andrews that they kept him in a starting role.

“The Blue Jays have since consulted with their team doctors and renowned surgeon Dr. James Andrews about what the next phase of McGowan’s recovery should be. The general consensus appears to be that a set pitching schedule would be beneficial for McGowan’s overall health.

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/print.jsp?ymd=20110531&content_id=19825386&notebook_id=19826532&vkey=notebook_tor&c_id=tor

By: mike in boston

mike in boston — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 13:51:16 +0000

nice analysis.

i think it’s too early to criticize the team for their handling of McGowan. If he can make it to August without any major issues then he can always be slotted in the pen at that time, or left in the Vegas rotation. It’s easier to convert him to a reliever than the other way around. In any case, where he pitches this year is not nearly as important as whether he is fully healthy, and so can be in the mix for 2012.