Comments on: The Need for Speed: Stolen Bases

By: Jesse Bartolis

Jesse Bartolis — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 19:13:52 +0000

I’m Jesse Bartolis of NFLmocks a fansided page. I’m trying to get everyone on fansided to follow us on twitter (and vice versa) so I just followed you @JaysJournal if you could follow us back @nflmocks.

Love the site keep up the good work.

By: Scott Barber

Scott Barber — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 16:07:04 +0000

Absolutely, it is truly a great time to be a Jays fan. 2012 and beyond continues to look very promising. I can’t wait to see how Lawrie, Gose, Thames and others perform in the minors (and for Lawrie and Thames, possibly the majors) this season.

By: Steve

Steve — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 13:38:06 +0000

I like this article. I’ve often said that stolen bases are overrated. Not that there is anything wrong with them. Moving from first base into scoring position opens up a lot of advantages in an inning. But guarding your “outs” is far more precious than moving up one base. There are other ways to use your speed effectively (infield singles, moving from 1st to 3rd, breaking up double plays, picking your moments to take an extra base, etc). Teams that take a conservative approach to base stealing, have a higher SB% because they choose their moments wisely and make more effective use of their speed. Unfortunately stats that can be counted get more recognition than what they deserve. I’d rather have a guy with 60 SB potential that is 19 for 20 in SBs than if the same player went 60 for 80 for the reasons already explained in the article. As for the disruption effect. IMO, that is overstated as well. There is some truth to it, but not as much as weak play-by-play commentators often make it out to be. And besides, if it is a disruption, just having a guy with speed at 1st is enough, regardless of his SB numbers.

By: Mat Germain

Mat Germain — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 12:54:31 +0000

Nice article Scott!

It’ll be ven more interesting to watch he Jays players steal when guys like Eric Thames, Brett Lawrie, and Anthony Gose make it to The Show. When added to Davis, that should give the Jays 4 very credible and high % base stealers.

2011 will be fun in terms of watching how the philosphy pans out under Farrell, but to me, 2012 is when it will REALLY take off like a rocket. How can you concentrate on pitching to Bautista when Lawrie, Davis, Escobar, and possibly Gose are running around the bases and taking massive leads?

By: Scott Barber

Scott Barber — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 04:22:12 +0000

Yea the “disruption” aspect of stolen bases is more difficult to quantify. Check out the chapter “running wild” in The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball by Tango, Lichtman and Dolphin. They crunch the numbers and don’t believe it to be all that significant. The book mentioned in this post (Baseball Between the Numbers) on the other hand, did find some evidence to suggest that the disruption caused by SB’s has a positive effect for the offense. That book was published more recently, and seems intuitively to make more sense.

By: Fungo Freddy

Fungo Freddy — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 03:12:26 +0000

Henderson was clearly obsessed with total stolen bases and paid less attention to his percentage. It seems Farrell is pro speed, but I think he’ll be judicious in how he uses it.

Good analysis.

By: monkeyman

monkeyman — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 00:54:29 +0000

An interesting take on the SB argument is whether speed putting pressure on pitchers has an adverse affect on their pitching ability. Farrell clearly believes this as a former MLB pitcher. Depending upon the magnitude of the effect, this factor would make statistical analysis of SB’s WAR impact etc. virtually moot. I’d love to see a study of pitchers’ stats in innings when they are run on often as well as the next couple of innings.