Comments on: Jays Journal: A.L. East Predictions for 2011 Season http://jaysjournal.com/2011/03/29/jays-journal-a-l-east-predictions-for-2011-season/ A Toronto Blue Jays Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More Mon, 17 Dec 2012 19:16:03 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4.1 By: Jays Journal Series Preview: April 5-7 vs. Oakland Athletics. « Jays Journal | A Toronto Blue Jays Blog http://jaysjournal.com/2011/03/29/jays-journal-a-l-east-predictions-for-2011-season/comment-page-1/#comment-3612 Jays Journal Series Preview: April 5-7 vs. Oakland Athletics. « Jays Journal | A Toronto Blue Jays Blog Tue, 05 Apr 2011 11:46:59 +0000 http://jaysjournal.com/?p=6721#comment-3612 [...] a look here to read all of my thoughts on the A.L. [...] [...] a look here to read all of my thoughts on the A.L. [...]

]]> By: Mat Germain http://jaysjournal.com/2011/03/29/jays-journal-a-l-east-predictions-for-2011-season/comment-page-1/#comment-3605 Mat Germain Mon, 04 Apr 2011 16:22:50 +0000 http://jaysjournal.com/?p=6721#comment-3605 I think the Central is way over-hyped aside from CHW, and I do believe that the East can almost be guaranteed a wild card spot...as usual. I think that the East is so much stronger than the Central and West that it will dominate the AL. That's what I see. You're allowed to think otherwise, but I do believe that 2010 (when there were 4 teams above .500 in the East), showed us just how strong the East is. If you're telling me that all of the additions the East teams made this off season and all of their top rated systems (aside from the O's) won't help them duplicate 2010 at a minimum, I think you're selling them short. All 4 top teams in the East should be above .500, and I looked at each individually, not as a group. Your predictions above may come true, but I think that you're being too hard on the Jays, as most skeptical Jays fans are. We have a TON of talent and a cohesive group in Toronto. Enjoy it! I think the Central is way over-hyped aside from CHW, and I do believe that the East can almost be guaranteed a wild card spot…as usual. I think that the East is so much stronger than the Central and West that it will dominate the AL. That’s what I see. You’re allowed to think otherwise, but I do believe that 2010 (when there were 4 teams above .500 in the East), showed us just how strong the East is. If you’re telling me that all of the additions the East teams made this off season and all of their top rated systems (aside from the O’s) won’t help them duplicate 2010 at a minimum, I think you’re selling them short. All 4 top teams in the East should be above .500, and I looked at each individually, not as a group.

Your predictions above may come true, but I think that you’re being too hard on the Jays, as most skeptical Jays fans are. We have a TON of talent and a cohesive group in Toronto. Enjoy it!

]]> By: Mat Germain http://jaysjournal.com/2011/03/29/jays-journal-a-l-east-predictions-for-2011-season/comment-page-1/#comment-3602 Mat Germain Mon, 04 Apr 2011 16:03:19 +0000 http://jaysjournal.com/?p=6721#comment-3602 Did you want to change some of your thoughts after seeing the Jays play this weekend George? My contention on your comments would be this: The pen will be fine, healthy or not, because of its depth. Drabek will win more than 10 (barring injury) and I'm willing to put money on that. You're looking at the loss of Wells and Buck all wrong. What Wells was providing in the lineup will be replaced by Lind, and the Jays added Davis to replace Lewis at the top of the lineup. Talk about an upgrade! Add in more power from Arencibia than buck gave us and a better production from Snider, and there's no loss of power...in fact, the Jays may add to their 2010 numbers if Rivera does hit well and Lawrie can come up and be a bonus. As for the wins, you may be right George, but I love being an optimist. I saw what the Jays did with a make shift roster in 2010, and believe that it has a ton more depth because of what's ready to come up from the minors and the few additions made. Did you want to change some of your thoughts after seeing the Jays play this weekend George?

My contention on your comments would be this: The pen will be fine, healthy or not, because of its depth. Drabek will win more than 10 (barring injury) and I’m willing to put money on that. You’re looking at the loss of Wells and Buck all wrong. What Wells was providing in the lineup will be replaced by Lind, and the Jays added Davis to replace Lewis at the top of the lineup. Talk about an upgrade! Add in more power from Arencibia than buck gave us and a better production from Snider, and there’s no loss of power…in fact, the Jays may add to their 2010 numbers if Rivera does hit well and Lawrie can come up and be a bonus.

As for the wins, you may be right George, but I love being an optimist. I saw what the Jays did with a make shift roster in 2010, and believe that it has a ton more depth because of what’s ready to come up from the minors and the few additions made.

]]> By: Steve http://jaysjournal.com/2011/03/29/jays-journal-a-l-east-predictions-for-2011-season/comment-page-1/#comment-3587 Steve Thu, 31 Mar 2011 15:59:44 +0000 http://jaysjournal.com/?p=6721#comment-3587 I think your predictions and analysis are pretty much bang-on. I would say your win total for the division as a whole is a bit high (92 games over .500 - I don't see it). But I agree with a lot of it - especially Tampa and NY. The Rays starting rotation is one of the best and was one of the best last year. THey have not upgraded it. If anything, they will take a small, temporary step backward as they work in a rookie in the place of an established starter who pitched very well for them over the past couple years. But what made the Rays so good last year was their offense and their bullpen. They won a lot of their games over the last 2 innings. Both are much weaker this year. In fact, their offense wasn't as strong on paper last year as the results would indicate. It was truly a case of the sum of the parts exceeding the individual parts. A lot of that was due to Crawford and Pena. As for the Yankees, they still have an awesome lineup. What I would say is there is far more downside than upside for them. I don't see too many places where they could be pleasantly surprised and if Rivera ever discovers how old he is, the Yankees could fall a bit. Yes, they brought in Soriano as insurance, but there is only one Rivera and nobody completely replaces him. As for the Jays. Very good analysis. I agree with most of it. I see 90 wins as their ceiling if everything comes together for them (and I mean everything), but 83 to 86 wins as a more likely scenario. I think your predictions and analysis are pretty much bang-on. I would say your win total for the division as a whole is a bit high (92 games over .500 – I don’t see it). But I agree with a lot of it – especially Tampa and NY. The Rays starting rotation is one of the best and was one of the best last year. THey have not upgraded it. If anything, they will take a small, temporary step backward as they work in a rookie in the place of an established starter who pitched very well for them over the past couple years. But what made the Rays so good last year was their offense and their bullpen. They won a lot of their games over the last 2 innings. Both are much weaker this year. In fact, their offense wasn’t as strong on paper last year as the results would indicate. It was truly a case of the sum of the parts exceeding the individual parts. A lot of that was due to Crawford and Pena. As for the Yankees, they still have an awesome lineup. What I would say is there is far more downside than upside for them. I don’t see too many places where they could be pleasantly surprised and if Rivera ever discovers how old he is, the Yankees could fall a bit. Yes, they brought in Soriano as insurance, but there is only one Rivera and nobody completely replaces him. As for the Jays. Very good analysis. I agree with most of it. I see 90 wins as their ceiling if everything comes together for them (and I mean everything), but 83 to 86 wins as a more likely scenario.

]]> By: George http://jaysjournal.com/2011/03/29/jays-journal-a-l-east-predictions-for-2011-season/comment-page-1/#comment-3586 George Thu, 31 Mar 2011 13:50:56 +0000 http://jaysjournal.com/?p=6721#comment-3586 You may be right about the Yankees in that they have one more playoff run left, but if they trade away minor league talent for starting pitching, they are borrowing on future success. Sooner or later, their stable of aging all-stars with their huge, multi-year contracts will hamstring even the mighty Yankees. The crack in the iceberg may have shown this year with the Soriano thing. You may be right about the Yankees in that they have one more playoff run left, but if they trade away minor league talent for starting pitching, they are borrowing on future success. Sooner or later, their stable of aging all-stars with their huge, multi-year contracts will hamstring even the mighty Yankees. The crack in the iceberg may have shown this year with the Soriano thing.

]]> By: George http://jaysjournal.com/2011/03/29/jays-journal-a-l-east-predictions-for-2011-season/comment-page-1/#comment-3585 George Thu, 31 Mar 2011 13:31:29 +0000 http://jaysjournal.com/?p=6721#comment-3585 I agree on Morrow and 83. Where I disagree: 1. Cecil's stuff is absolutely filthy, which is why he won 13 games as a rookie. 2. The majors ready talent is there, which is why Baseball America ranked the Jay's farm system #4 this year. The chance that any one of them will be a difference maker this year, however, is slim. I agree on Morrow and 83.
Where I disagree:
1. Cecil’s stuff is absolutely filthy, which is why he won 13 games as a rookie.
2. The majors ready talent is there, which is why Baseball America ranked the Jay’s farm system #4 this year. The chance that any one of them will be a difference maker this year, however, is slim.

]]> By: George http://jaysjournal.com/2011/03/29/jays-journal-a-l-east-predictions-for-2011-season/comment-page-1/#comment-3584 George Thu, 31 Mar 2011 13:16:02 +0000 http://jaysjournal.com/?p=6721#comment-3584 The Jays won't win 90 this year. The bullpen is better, but older, and prone to injury (see?). The rotation is still young enough to be inconsistent, and very well regress or succumb to injuries. Reyes has never won more than 3 games in a season, and if Drabek wins 7-10 this year, he will consider it a success. They traded 50 homers from Wells and Buck for 40 stolen bases and 20-25 homers from Rivera. JPA is a work in progress, the corner infield defense is unproven, and the outfield D is not improved over last year. Until they show me that they can improve their BA and OBP, and hit better with RISP. I am going to say 82-85. The Jays won’t win 90 this year. The bullpen is better, but older, and prone to injury (see?). The rotation is still young enough to be inconsistent, and very well regress or succumb to injuries. Reyes has never won more than 3 games in a season, and if Drabek wins 7-10 this year, he will consider it a success. They traded 50 homers from Wells and Buck for 40 stolen bases and 20-25 homers from Rivera. JPA is a work in progress, the corner infield defense is unproven, and the outfield D is not improved over last year. Until they show me that they can improve their BA and OBP, and hit better with RISP. I am going to say 82-85.

]]> By: George http://jaysjournal.com/2011/03/29/jays-journal-a-l-east-predictions-for-2011-season/comment-page-1/#comment-3582 George Thu, 31 Mar 2011 11:52:24 +0000 http://jaysjournal.com/?p=6721#comment-3582 I think you are being a bit too optimistic with the Jays, Matt. Too many "coulds" and "maybes" in there. Maybe if they played in the AL Central. I think you are being a bit too optimistic with the Jays, Matt. Too many “coulds” and “maybes” in there. Maybe if they played in the AL Central.

]]> By: Jeff http://jaysjournal.com/2011/03/29/jays-journal-a-l-east-predictions-for-2011-season/comment-page-1/#comment-3579 Jeff Thu, 31 Mar 2011 03:08:42 +0000 http://jaysjournal.com/?p=6721#comment-3579 Wtf, how can you justify having four teams in this division well over five hundred. This would leave the rest of the AL under five hundred (exaggeration). Jays when 80 games this year, with the Rays winning something to the tune of 85, while the BoSox take the division with 96-100 wins, and the Yanks place in second with 94. While I think the wild card may come from the Central this year, as the Twins, White Sox, and even the Tigers look pretty good. I can see an all Sox ALCS this year. Wtf, how can you justify having four teams in this division well over five hundred. This would leave the rest of the AL under five hundred (exaggeration).
Jays when 80 games this year, with the Rays winning something to the tune of 85, while the BoSox take the division with 96-100 wins, and the Yanks place in second with 94.
While I think the wild card may come from the Central this year, as the Twins, White Sox, and even the Tigers look pretty good.
I can see an all Sox ALCS this year.

]]> By: Baseballkid760 http://jaysjournal.com/2011/03/29/jays-journal-a-l-east-predictions-for-2011-season/comment-page-1/#comment-3577 Baseballkid760 Thu, 31 Mar 2011 00:54:13 +0000 http://jaysjournal.com/?p=6721#comment-3577 I sure can't wait till Major League Baseball adds another wildcard spot in 2012 and the AL East grabs both every year. That would definitely bring about the talk of division re-shuffling. As of now you take an 90 win team in the AL west and they become a 75-80 win team in the East I sure can’t wait till Major League Baseball adds another wildcard spot in 2012 and the AL East grabs both every year. That would definitely bring about the talk of division re-shuffling.

As of now you take an 90 win team in the AL west and they become a 75-80 win team in the East

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