Comments on: Blue Jays Fielding Options for 2011

By: Scott Barber

Scott Barber — Mon, 28 Mar 2011 02:10:48 +0000

Overbay is actually a decent defensive first baseman. Career UZR: 1.4/ UZR/150 0.2 and in 2010 UZR 0.1. So according to ultimate zone rating he’s basically league average. His career fielding percentage is 995%.

I would be very (pleasantly) surprised if Adam Lind is as good as Overbay this season (in terms of defense). I would be equally surprised if he was not as good as Overbay offensively.

By: Andy Telford

Andy Telford — Mon, 28 Mar 2011 01:43:39 +0000

Good point, the Jays best hope really is that their defence being a neutral factor

By: Fungo Freddy

Fungo Freddy — Mon, 28 Mar 2011 01:37:34 +0000

Looks to me like they’ll be relying on offence. If the bats produce and the pitching matures, the defence will be a neutral factor at best.

By: Andy Telford

Andy Telford — Mon, 28 Mar 2011 01:33:45 +0000

Jon,
No need to worry about Lind at 1st, he is an up grade from Overbay

By: Andy Telford

Andy Telford — Mon, 28 Mar 2011 01:30:48 +0000

I’m not sure that Lind is going to be as slow to pick up the fundementals at first as you all seem to think. In my opinion he is an up grade at first over Lyle Overbay.

By: Scott Barber

Scott Barber — Sun, 27 Mar 2011 15:26:06 +0000

My mistake,

I came across this from Mitchel Lichtman (creator of UZR):

“As well, outfield arm run values are also computed separately from “regular” UZR. They are based on the speed and location of batted balls to the outfield and how often base runners advance extra bases (advances), don’t advance the extra base (holds), or get thrown out trying to advance (kills). Park factors are used in arm ratings. For example, because the left fielder plays so shallow in Fenway and balls tend to quickly ricochet off the Green Monster, it is difficult to advance an extra base on a hit to LF in Boston. In Colorado, because the OF is so expansive, base runners advance more easily than in an average park. The UZR “arm engine” adjusts for those things.”

By: Jon Lofto

Jon Lofto — Sun, 27 Mar 2011 13:08:42 +0000

Good analysis, sounds like there won’t be much improvement defensively. I am concerned about Lind handling some “hot shots” at first. He just doesn’t seem to have the mobility.

By: gabriel

gabriel — Sun, 27 Mar 2011 06:05:17 +0000

I can’t be sure, but I think that this may have something to do with UZR’s inability to account for an outfielder “holding runners” at a base.

Just not the case. Every hit/baserunner state is recorded and UZR takes baserunner advancement into account.

By: Mylegacy

Mylegacy — Sun, 27 Mar 2011 01:55:32 +0000

I’m not too excited about our 2011 defensive prowess.

We’ve a garden gnome in RF, untried beasties at 1st and C and a guy with one (reliable) leg at 2nd. Davis and Escobar should be above league average, Jobau near it and Snider will be slightly above league average in LF.

If this team surprises it’ll be the hitting and healthy (god willin’ an’ the river don’t rise) pitchers that lead the way.