Comments on: Jays Pitching Questions: Where Will Reyes Land?

By: matt

matt — Tue, 19 Apr 2011 13:00:36 +0000

I think we’ve seen how much Reyes is going to add to the starting rotation…

As for Litsch, I think we should have stopped starting him after his first outing as that would have maximized trade value…

Look I love Romero-Drabek and hope that Morrow comes back strong as ever, but bottom line is that we have a solid top 3 and not much else.

Don’t get me wrong I’ll be cheering for Cecil, but my expectations are definitely held in check and come on man what’s with the stupid glasses who does he think he is Wild Thing Charlie Sheen in Major League? lol

By: The Argument for Kyle Drabek to Start the 2011 Season in the Minors « Jays Journal | A Toronto Blue Jays Blog

Wed, 23 Mar 2011 17:00:13 +0000

[...] did a fantastic job on Monday outlining why Reyes is likely to crack the Jays’ rotation, and many of the comments [...]

By: George

George — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 20:46:30 +0000

I dunno about the “injury clock”. I imagine he will be throwing the same number of pitches in AAA, so as far as the “injury clock” is concerned, it doesn’t really matter where he pitches this year does it?

By: Steve

Steve — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 13:49:21 +0000

I couldn’t evaluate talent if my life depended on it, but somehow I doubt that Drabek has learned all that he needs to succeed in the majors. Just because Rogers has oodles of money, doesn’t mean they should start wasting it. Wells and Rios would be upgrades over the current outfield, but they were being paid more than they should, so they’re not here anymore. If the plan succeeds, the oodles of cash are going to be needed to pay the future stars as they begin to accumulate service time. It is amazing how quickly payroll can jump and so the Jays should continue to be wise about minimizing service time where necessary. I’m not talking about holding down a major league ready player indefinitely. I’m talking about a month or two here. And as for Drabek leading the way for the other young pitchers you mentioned, I don’t know how soon you expect them here, but I suspect Drabek could come up mid-season and still have a couple of years under his belt when the others start coming up. I do completely agree with you when you refer to the clock as in the number of innings before an injury and it is something I overlooked. But you can’t predict or plan for injuries and I think the payoff of controlling the player in 2017 far outweighs any possible benefit of having Drabek start with the Jays on April 1. Keep in mind as well that GMs always use the word “control”. That’s because once a player reaches free agency, the player determines where they will play and if a player wants to move on, he will no matter how much you offer, ala Halladay, Burnett and Lily.

By: George Norman

George Norman — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 12:15:04 +0000

I agree with Steve, Matt. I have been saying for some time now that the pitching staff will be determined by who has options left, which means that Drabek starts in AAA for a while, until injuries or trades sort themselves out. Just because Rogers has tons of money doesn’t mean that they waste it. Having Drabek in AAA for a couple of months could mean a saving of $10-15 million down the road. Litsch and Reyes start, Scrabble and Jansen in the pen, Francisco and Dotel on the DL.
BTW, your Gotcha is really, really stupid

By: gabriel

gabriel — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 23:38:07 +0000

Keith, if I may briefly disagree, I think Reyes might fit into the Jays longer-term plans. Reyes has similar stuff & profile to Romero; if he can put it together, he would be a potential #2-type. That isn’t to say that he couldn’t be traded, just that I can see Reyes sticking around when the Jays compete for a playoff spot.

By: gabriel

gabriel — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 23:28:19 +0000

I really doubt that Litsch is valuable as a reliever; even though he merits an MLB job, I’d rather see him starting at AAA than be a rarely-used longman in the pen. With Reyes, however, I’m not as worried about keeping him in the bullpen. I think his stuff profiles decently as a reliever, and, being left-handed, could be useful as a situational lefty as well as a long-reliever. Should he be successful, he can be moved into the starting rotation should injuries or trades occur.

While I quite like Litsch, he clearly has limited upside, and he’s performed relatively well in the Majors thus far. Should he do well in the first half this year, he may well be able to get a decent prospect or two in return. I don’t see Reyes or Rzep gathering such value even if they were to start in the MLB rotation & do well; even though both have higher ceilings than Litsch.

By: Keith

Keith — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 23:09:13 +0000

Hi Mat,
I think we can all agree that Litsch and Reyes do not play into the long term plans for this team. As AA has said his goal is to have a rotation filled with number 2 or 3 quality starters.
As much as I want to see Drabek break camp with the Jays, I think the smart (and no lose thing) to do this season is start out with Litsch and Reyes as the 4 & 5 guys in the rotation. This way if either of them implode in April, you bring up Drabek (and Stewart if they both implode) in May. If they have a good start to the season, you can deal them.
I disagree with those that believe that it will take until the All Star break for the Litsch & Reyes to gather value. There are a ton of teams looking for starting pitching help including the Cards, Brewers, Yankees, Angels & Mariners. It should be pretty easy for AA to find a dance partner if he is ready to pull a deal. Especially with Litsch`s track record and Reyes ceiling.

By: Mat Germain

Mat Germain — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 21:50:56 +0000

I understand the whole “take it slow” approach with pitchers due to “the clock”, but you’re forgetting “a clock”, which is the number of innings his arm may have in it before it sustains another injury. Here’s my take on it:

1 – Drabek has learned all he needs to learn to succeed in the majors. What he needs now more than anything is the experience in the majors.

2 – Rogers has oodles of money. So, if his clock runs out and he’s healthy and the Jays want to keep him around, they can do so with ease.

3 – If Drabek is going to lead the Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, Asher, Henderson Alvarez, and Griffin Murphy at some point in time, the Jays need him to be an established ace, no a pitcher that’s there learning right along with them. That’s why he needs to prove himself now.

You may very well be correct, and Drabek could begin 2011 in the minors. But, I say it’s just a waste of time. Many pitchers get up to The Show at a much younger age and the Jays need to join the teams that have had success pushing their SP instead of holding them back. The Tigers (Porcello), Braves (Minor/Beachy), and Reds (Leake) are prime examples of teams pushing their talented players because they’re better than what they have on their MLB roster, even if they do need to learn on the job. The Jays are MUCH better off with Drabek in the rotation. He would give their rotation the best curve ball in MLB, and he’d be ready to become dominant as early as 2012.

By: Mat Germain

Mat Germain — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 21:41:23 +0000

You may be right Andy, but as the Jays gave Dana Eveland a shot in 2010, I believe they may do the same in 2011 with Reyes who has more talent than Eveland. Eveland, even after having a rough time with the Jays, was turned into Ronald Uviedo, so imagine the return in Reyes has more success than Eveland did. I’m not saying it would be a top-tier prospect, but it could be exactly the piece the Jays need at the time, which is better than letting Reyes walk.