For example, if we look at the success that the Tigers have had in drafting HS pitchers like Rick Procello, Jacob Turner, Casey Crosby, HS hitter Nick Castellanos, and others out of HS, we see that they seem to have a knack for picking up HS guys that make an impact at the MLB level. They’ve been forced to go that route because they often are picking later in the draft, and have had to go overslot later on as a result (aside from Turner who was taken 9th overall). This is the same thing that the Jays may be forced to do as they are outside the top 20.

Also, some teams just have more success than others in going with whatever strategy they use, that’s all I’m saying here. So long as the scouts are doing a great job, you should be getting quality players or pitchers on board. The Jays have invested enough in their scouting to do a great job, and have ensured that scouts can look at guys they target more often than they have in the past in order to make sure they don’t make a mistake. This is why I believe that they may target a prep player at #21 in 2011. The majority of the top college players may (or should) be gone by then, and they’ll still want a top-notch prospect.

If the Jays followed the theory you’re talking about, they would have grabbed a college bat like Gary Brown, Zack Cox, or Kyle Parker in the 2010 draft, so I’m not sure this is the case under Alex Anthopoulos. But, every draft has its strengths, and hitting was definitely not the strength of the 2010 draft, so that may be a bad example to draw from. Unfortunately, it’s the only AA led draft we have to go by, so I can’t really use any other example.

I would agree with your comment about grabbing a college bat “if they are equally talented” statement, but I doubt that you could ever find an exact correlation between 2 players. Some scouts will like one more than the other, so it depends on Andrew Tinnish and his making the ultimate decision on who to support as he makes the case to Alex Anthopoulos.

Either way, expect the Jays to grab the absolute best player based on the evaluations they’ve made. They’ve proven they’re not going to shy away from players based on the bonus asking price, which is a great thing for Jays fans all over!

I think there’s also a chance Dillion Howard falls to 21, and If so he would be a great great pickup. I think a guy like Anderson would be around for us at 35, but even so I’d rather have Ryan Carpenter who’s got a bit more upside.

I wonder though how much overslot AA would go for a stud blue chipper like Josh Bell. I hope we walk away with him with out 21 pick and grab a safe college guy like Carpenter/Anderson at 35. It will be interesting to see if AA goes really above slot to sign the best talent.

I do believe the Jays played it safe in the 1st round in 2010 and didn’t go after the highest ceiling guys, but I still love Deck McGuire’s potential. Whether or not they do the same in 2011 remains to be seen. But, with so many arms making headway in the minors this season, if the Jays do land an arm with the first round pick, I would not be surprised in the least to see it being a top prep arm, as they’ll want “waves” of talent coming up to the majors, or wagons if you buy into Anthopoulos’s freight train motto!