If Drabek truly outdoes the other options, I think he’ll get the spot. There’s no sense in having that great an arm sitting in the minors learning very little when he could be putting fans in the seats in Toronto. However, if he struggles half of the time in ST, then you’re call would be close to automatic in my opinion, because the Jays can’t risk hurting his confidence from the get-go.

Great comment John, and there would be nothing wrong with having any of the 3 pitch in April.

If the Jays want to be competitive in the AL East long term without a 200 million dollar payroll, they will have to be financially prudent. That means getting as much as you can from your youth, and having Drabek not reach Super 2 and getting that extra year of control by keeping him in the minors for a month or two is something they would be foolish not to do.

Also, the #5 spot in the rotation usually isnt even needed for the first several weeks of the season due to having quite a few off days.

I see Rzep or Litsch starting the season in the #4 spot, then Either of them taking over #5 until the Jays are ready to bring up Drabek to fully take over the #4 or 5 Spot, whichever they feel is necessary. By that time, you could see either Litsch or Rzep go to the pen as a long reliever or back to Vegas as a starter to0 be called up in case of injury.

To those who might think I’m out to lunch on this, take alook at when Cecil was called up in 2010. He didn’t open the season on the 25 man roster either in order to save service time, he was called up when they felt his time was saved enough that he won’t hit Super 2 status after this year.

Great site..I love it!

Do you not see the Jays holding Drabek back at least until May for the extra year of service time??

I love the prospect countdown by the way!!

HA!

Thanks for the pickup Adrian, it’s always appreciated and I amended it.

As it stands right now, Scrabble and Litsch are Stewart’s only competition for the #5 spot (well let’s not forget about Jo-Jo Reyes…haha), both of whom haven’t had any kind of recent success at the Major League level.

Frankly I think we saw enough of both of those guys this past year to virtually hand Stewart a shot at The Show to show what he has. I think Stewart would simply be wasted as a reliever as well, period.

Litsch gave up 20 earned runs in just 4 Triple-A starts in 2010, and he was far from impressive in his 9 starts with the Jays this past season. He got hit way too much for my liking, and getting just 16 strikeouts in 46.2 innings even with a 44% GB rate just doesn’t cut it for me. Sure he’s been working out and dieting this offseason, but Litsch can open up the 2011 season with the 51s to prove he’s healthy again after his injuries, not with the Jays.

As for Scrabble, I do really like the guy. He got a fair look with the Jays this past season, starting 12 games, but his walks were high and, like Litsch, he got hit too hard when he was with the Jays. He also got 12 starts in with Vegas in 2010, posting a 6.07 ERA (4.71 FIP) but still got hit hard.

Rzep had a dominant Arizona Fall League stint yes, but I think he should open the year with Vegas to show that the AFL wasn’t a fluke and to work on his control. Then again, he definitely has the ability to have a Dana Eveland-type spring and force the Jays’ hand and give him the #5 spot.

In that case, Stewart would continue to work on his command down in the Minors and wait for his chance at the bigs while Scrabble gets an honest look with the Jays. As Mylegacy pointed out too, in that case the Jays would get to control Stewart longer if he gets called up in June rather than April.

Just my take.

Jesse Litsch – 2008 stats at age 23 – 3.58 ERA, 28 GS, 176 IP, 178 hits, 39 BB, 99 Ks, 1.233 Whip, 9.1 H/9, 2 BB/9, 5.1 SO/9, 2.7 WAR…..and people are ready to give up on him? Well, I’m glad the Jays haven’t yet, because he can definitely turn things around quickly. To make it quick, he just came back too quickly from his surgery. The usual timeline for the procedure he had is anywhere from 16-18 months, he came back in 12. Add in a wonky hip he had fixed in August, and there are your reasons! He’s been tweeting about a new diet and great workouts, and seems primed for a turnaround. I, for one, am not counting him out of anything.

Link to some of his info: http://www.thestar.com/article/845036

As for Rzepczynski, anyone who saw the stats put up in Fangrahs that displayed the fact that the AL East is filled with more than half of the hitters being LH or switch-hitting (somewhere around 53%), knows how important having LHP in your rotation is in the AL East. That’s why I give him the edge to land the 5th spot in the rotation if he’s effective. He had an awesome AFL season, and if it wasn’t for missing 41 games after being hit by a line drive on his middle finger of his throwing hand, I believe he would have been in the 2010 rotation all year long. He’s got great stuff and provides the Jays with a different look as well as 2 lefties in the rotation.

As for Zach Stewart, my bet is that he becomes the closer of the future for the Jays. Just a hunch. If he can make it as a starter, great, I’m all for it but still expect him to make it to the Jays in June-August. If not, the Jays have one of the cheapest closing alternatives in all of the AL East that has the potential to be lights out for years to come. Add in David Purcey from the left side in Scott Downs mode, and you’ve got a very nice back of the pen for years to come.

That’s my take on things!

I may not recall correctly, but the broadcasters seemed to be saying that none of his pitches were back to where they had been pre-injury. Is there any basis (beyond hope) for believing that Litsch has more control or movement on his pitches now than he did last year?

Rzep did not have a great year, either, but in a few more starts and games, he at least out-performed JL by a significant margin.

So, for those who see the plan as giving Litsch a chance to show why NL teams should trade for him, what makes you think he will look good enough for others to be interested?

Litsch has no future in an AL East rotation Not with all these ultra-patient heavy professional hitters in the AL East. AA will try to give him the 5th spot, and build up his trade value this yr. This is a win-win-win situation for the Jays, Litsch and the future team that acquire him.

Litsch is definitely a mid-rotation starter in the NL, so by no means am I trolling him here