He won’t beat out Davis’ experience for CF – unless the Big R gets injured (always possible) or Darin hits 4 or 5 homers this spring – most unlikely. I see his fate similar to Brad Emaus (who I also loved) in Darin’s case his almost complete lack of power will do him in.

In the system – with Gose and Marisnick near(ish) I just don’t think he’ll make it. He does have a chance to stay as a 4th outfielder, pitch runner (one of JMac’s role now)- I’d clearly prefer him over Patterson as the 4th guy if it came down to a choice there.

I don’t share the same optimism on him as others, I pretty much see him being a good 4th OF on a contender like Davis would. I would have him few spots lower on the list.

In terms of his sheer numbers, they are hard to ignore. Especially when you look at the whole package. Patience is a skill that plays anywhere, and Mastro has some great walk rates. I’m personally pulling for him to get the 4th OF job, it makes more sense to give him a chance than to waste a year on Corey Patterson. However I’m thinking Mastro will start in AAA and make an appearance if there is an injury or if they DFA Patterson when he plays like a shlub.

1 – If he blows people away and gets on base at a very high rate while stealing a ton of bases – our prediction – the Jays can either keep Rajai Davis as a 4th outfielder, or the more likely scenario has them trading him and his very affordable contract to another club that needs speed and OF flexibility for a playoff run.
2 – If he does just an ok job, the Jays can then substantiate keeping him on as a 4th OF, pinch hitter and runner off the bench. That a perfect role for someone like Darin since he gets on base very well and steals a ton. Nothing wrong with that!
3 – He’s earned it. As Jared stated above, from BA to most across the industry, the general belief is that it would be destructing his trade value or value to the team to not give him a shot in 2011 and to send him to AAA instead. Besides, do you think Corey Patterson and others would be happy on the Jays bench? Not nearly as happy as Darin would be.

He’s a great “likely to surprise” story for the Jays as we head into 2011. Yes, Alex has probably dangled him around a few times, but when you’re trying to get the likes of Dan Uggla that makes a ton of sense. If anything, it shows you how highly AA thinks of Darin, he thinks a team will trade Dan Uggla for him and a one or two other prospects.

It may take until July for him to make the Jays roster, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in a Jays uniform well before that point.

Looking at what age the player was when they made their Major League debut is usually deceiving too, as they usually appear in less than 20 games that season after the rosters expand, and don’t get regular at-bats (larger sample) until either the following season or even the season after that.

Looking exclusively at CFs who were on 2010 Opening Day rosters, one doesn’t have to look too far to see someone that made their MLB debut at 25 years old: Rajai Davis.

Davis appeared in only 20 games that year, and managed ONLY 14 at-bats. Though he did have 100 AAA games under his belt at the time of his call-up, he has been more than a bench player and has appeared in at least 113 games in each of the last three seasons.

Other OFs off 2010 OD rosters (with OD age in brackets) include Rick Ankiel (27), Nyjer Morgan (26), Matt Diaz (25), Josh Willingham (25), Drew Stubbs (24), and Mitch Maier (24), who jumped straight over AAA into the Majors. The list goes on.

If Mastroianni’s age is such a big factor and, based on your prediction, he only has a 5% chance of making it to the big leagues, why would teams even want him via trade either by himself or in a package? Furthermore, if he’s that unlikely to make the Majors, then how could he even be a part of a trade that would bring back “an impact player at another position such as DH, 3B, or Closer”?

I agree with you that expectations for the 2011 squad are relatively low, with a playoff berth being highly unlikely. Even though the Jays could very well win a less games than they did in 2010, the upcoming season is VERY valuable and exciting one from a player development standpoint.

Encarnacion and Lind are adjusting to a new position. Escobar will be in his first full season in Toronto. Snider will get a full season’s worth of Cito-less at-bats (finally!). Arencibia will get an everyday role and his output is unpredictable, either positive or negative. Aaron Hill will show either his 2009 side or his 2010 side. Bautista will have to make serious adjustments himself to the adjustments opposing pitchers will surely make when pitching against him. How will the Jays’ #4 (Drabek) and #5 (Stewart, Litsch, Rzep etc.) starters fare? This doesn’t even include the progress of prospects like Hech and Lawrie.

Anyways, the point I’m trying to make is that beyond roughly Romero, Morrow, Cecil and MAYBE some of the bullpen, virtually every position on the 2011 Jays is a question mark, which will become clearer at season’s end. With Davis locked up for 2-3 years and penciled in as the starting CF, there’s no reason why Mastro couldn’t crack the Jays out of ST as even a 4th OF.

While it’s unlikely a position player like Mastro (usually a pitcher) could skip Triple-A entirely and immediately stick at the MLB level, the Jays’ lack of MLB potential depth at CF (31 year old Jorge Padilla, 34 year old Jason Lane, 31 year old Corey Patterson) gives Mastro a unique opportunity to crack the Major League squad.

It’s the perfect year for him to do so as well, as there are clearly no championship aspirations by the team and 2011 is generally a feeling out process by the Jays in terms of what they have going forward.

Would you rather see Rajai Davis at the plate 400 times this season (and I’m a fan of Davis’ actually), or see a prospect get a real shot (200+ at-bats) to show if he has something to offer? I’m not sure about everyone else, but I always like seeing kids getting a shot and growing on the big stage, especially when we can afford it.

If AA acquires a 3B and Bautista goes back to RF though, the odds of Mastro cracking the club are obviously much lower.

A recent article (1 week ago) in Baseball America about Mastro was titled “Mastroianni earns a big league shot”.

That’s just my (borderline excessive) take, but thanks once again for getting involved on the site regularly and voicing your opinion!

Mastroianni will be 26 years old in August, 2011 and he has never even had a cup of coffee in MLB.

Statistically a player at his age is a career minor league player and has at best about a 5 – 10% chance of even making it to Major League Baseball and even if he makes it, it is only only as a bench role. Based on his minor league stats, I predict a 5% chance of his advancement to the big leagues.

A far more likely scenario is a trade in 2012 for an impact player at another position such as DH, 3B or Closer. Let’s see how Lind and Arencibia fare at their positions in 2011.

Unless we see a phenomenal run of success by the Jays up to the Jul 31st trading deadline, I think we have seen the last of AA’s major deals for the Blue Jays in 2011.

Surely we will see more deals which will enhance our minor league system, but no blockbusters that will propel our Major League club towards a pennant or wild card spot. Realistically we have too many positions to improve in 2011, (C, 3B, 1B, and CF). It would take a miracle to expect that we can compete in even 50% of these spots in 2011.

I stick to my prediction of a 2012 contending team for an AL East pennant or wild card spot and a probable World Series spot for the Jays.