Comments on: Top 50 Jays Prospects, Jays Journal Edition: #29 Chad Jenkins

By: Jays SP Prospect Chad Jenkins Promoted to AA, Frank Gailey Returns to Dunedin « Jays Journal | A Toronto Blue Jays Blog

Sat, 11 Jun 2011 22:13:24 +0000

[...] It seems that the first of what should be many promotions for pitchers from HiA Dunedin to AA New Hampshire has just taken place, as RHP Chad Jenkins (23) joins the Fishercats. The Kennesaw State product was selected int he 1st rd of the 2009 draft, 20th overall, and you can read the JJ Analysis on him here. [...]

By: lolwut

lolwut — Sun, 16 Jan 2011 22:43:42 +0000

I figured he had some bad luck but wow, thanks for the posting the numbers. So he really did do better than most think and seeing that ridiculously high H/9 would explain why his numbers didn’t look so good as he is a groundballer.

I wouldn’t be surprised if he made it up all the way to AAA by the end of the year as he is expected to climb up fast. Despite the harsh environments in AAA, I can see him being successful there since he is a groundball and thankfully not a flyball pitcher.

Positive look: Jenkins at 29 shows how strong the farm is.

By: Jared Macdonald

Jared Macdonald — Sun, 16 Jan 2011 20:35:17 +0000

Agreed, his slider and sinker are nasty, and usually down in the zone. Jenkins paints both sides of the plate, and touching 95 mph on a four-seamer doesn’t hurt either. 2011 will definitely be his year to shine and really work on improving his changeup.

Jenkins posted a 2.94 FIP with Lansing and a 3.97 FIP with Dunedin (both lower than his ERA), which shows that he should definitely benefit from better defense as he continues up the Jays’ Minor League ladder, being a high ground ball pitcher.

By: Ryan

Ryan — Sun, 16 Jan 2011 20:09:40 +0000

By all accounts Jenkins’ slider/sinker combo is a legitimate major league groundball combo. Oftentimes pitchers like that get a raw deal in the minors because the defense behind them lets them down more than a normal defense would.

He reminds me of Zach Britton a little bit. Jenkins was more polished when he started out, but both of them didn’t start out with great numbers. Neither have great K numbers, and both seem to have good control. Seems to me that once scouts see Jenkins more and more he could start to become more well regarded like Britton is now*

*I realize Britton is also putting up great numbers at this point as well, but I think Jenkins can do that too if he keeps working on a change-up to lefties.

By: Mat Germain

Mat Germain — Sun, 16 Jan 2011 01:55:32 +0000

I’d say to wait until you read about the top 20 before making that judgment lolwut. The rankings we are applying on this list are based not only on viability of the player making it to The Show, but also on their ceilings. The Jays just happen to have a bundle of players in the top 30 who could all make a case to be higher or lower. The fact of the matter is that Jenkins has a lot to prove before we can put him any higher than we have.

Think of it this way, he’s the same age as Kyle Drabek and was 1 level lower. Henderson Alvarez was 2 years younger in 2010 and still put up comparable stats to Chad’s. If he was going to be anything above a #3, he would have dominated HiA or at the very least shown dominant traits – something like being hard to hit (which he wasn’t) or a low whip (which it wasn’t). I would contest that every pitcher the Jays have in our top 20 have #2-3 ceilings instead of Chad’s #3-4, so how can we rank Chad higher?

You are right in that he has the stuff, and he could very well turn it all on and make us look foolish for ranking him 29th. In fact, I hope he does! But, going on the info we have and the fact that “something” is causing him to be less effective than he should be at the level he is pitching. I’m definitely hoping for a Ricky Romero type turnaround, but for now, he remains out of the top 20.

By: lolwut

lolwut — Sat, 15 Jan 2011 23:01:08 +0000

29th? Wow, that is ridiculously low. I mean he struggled at High A ball but he didn’t crap the bed. He’s got the stuff and the pitches to be successful. Nobody was expecting him to dominate the minor league but hold is own and rise up fast. It’s his first year and he did play A and high A ball. He is expected to be a mid to low starter at best so I don’t understand why he is so low.

I am not a fan of him or the pick but he should definitely be in the top 20. His upside is not nearly as high as guys like Sanchez, Wolj, Syndaargard but he is far more of a sure bet than them. While I wouldn’t call his season a success, it wasn’t a failure and the fact he had a really low walk rate is a good sign. He allowed way too many hits but he is a groundball pitcher so it could be because of poor defense.

I realize factoring upside is what goes into making these prospects list but you also have to consider the fact that he is more of a sure bet because of his stuff and he can limit walks while being a groundball pitcher. If he turns into a #3 starter, that would be pretty good. Guys like Sanchez may have upside as high as an ace but there is also a big possibility of turning into busts. Jenkins could as well but there is a low chance of that.