I couldn’t agree with you more, Boston and New Yorks starting 5 and far from a sure thing….their definitely not like Philly or the Giants. Also our 5 will have last years experiences behind them.
As far as the Orioles bullpen being better with Gregg. That can also be highly debated. I agree with Mat that we will see a better Orioles team due to a more focused and disciplined approach from Showalter. But his approach always winds up wearing thin (especially with the veterans) and his team will turn on him by late August/ Sept.
When you can talk about putting a talent like Stewart in your bullpen you have organizational depth at starter. I know AA has said repeatedly that he’s a starter but some fans still won’t let it go. Now I’m going to knock on wood before something bad happens.
Back to offense….. the point of this post. Mat I think you are right and Jose will come down to earth with a VERY respectable 30 -35 hrs and an OBP hovering around .380. But this shortage should be made up by Lind and Snider. If these 2 stay healthy and have the seasons they are capable of, we will see a better balanced line up. The big addition for me is that we will finally have great speed at the top of the line up to keep pitchers from getting comfortable. My “gut” is Hill will hit for better avg (around 270 I’d be ecstatic) and hopefully won’t be swinging for the fences with every stroke like last year.
Things get really interesting in late 2011 or spring 2012 depending on how Lawrie and Hech develop in the minors this year and if we sign Bautista for 3+ years AND if Travis has the breakout we are all expecting. We could have an abundance of offensively talented position players. Put Lawrie and Hech in the everyday line up and we have a very interesting offense. Davis and Escobar become trade fodder for a contender as Hech can lead off and plays short and Lawrie has the #2 hole written all over him with his speed and ability to handle a bat.

What I will say, however, is that the AL East has shed some pitching (Vazquez, Soriano and Garza – all of whom did very well vs the Jays) and the Rays pen is a mess now. The Yankees may not get Pettitte back and are still looking for a replacement for Vazquez. I actually expect the Baltimore pitchers to be slightly better due to better coaching, more seasoning and the fact that their late performances in ’10 points to that.

Boston can’t be 100% comfortable with their rotation. Beckett’s performance in ’10 screams possible visit with a surgeon in ’11, and Dice-K can’t go every 5 days. Lackey has been a huge disappointment there, but he could do a little better. Aside from Clay and Jon, they’re not overwhelming on the mound is all I’m saying.

So to sum it up, we have 2 solid starters in BOS and NY, 4 in TB, and 1 in BAL (Matusz) with a bunch of big question marks after that….

I think the Jays batters will be fine.

It does make a difference when a player like Edwin doesn’t have to get all anxious about playing defense. It does make a difference when Wells doesn’t have to cover as much ground in Left-Center because Davis is next to him, allowing him to save his legs a little more. It will impact Lind that he’ll have to continue to get used to play 1B while also trying to turn things around at the plate. It will also be an impact to have Bautista making better plays at 3B than E5 did because it makes for a smoother game overall on the defensive side of the ball, which then gets everyone feeling good as they head to the plate.

Baseball is a mental game as well as a physical one, so if the Jays can be better defensively, it can also translate to better performances by the same players on the offensive side of the ball.

You have to know that Edwin was just as frustrated as the fans when he made an error and that not being put into those situations will help his state of mind, not to mention a more consistent string of ABs in the season.

I like to think that since the majority of the lineup under performed based on either expectations or historical numbers, that 2011 will be better. If you want to call a group that almost broke the MLB HR record by a club “unproven”, that’s up to you. But I for one will gladly trumpet my prediction that 2011 will be a better offensive season. Not because I think the Jays will hit more HRs, but because I think they’ll drive in more runs – because that’s how you win games! They’re a tight knit group (something they proved when they stood up together for Lyle Overbay and in how Jose was asked to make Yunel feel at home) and they will continue to beat people’s expectations as a result.

I’ll have my record prediction up soon, but I will say right here and now that it will be above .500, barring unforeseen changes between now and then.

AS for Boston’s starters going into spring season, I think Lester,Lackey, Beckett, Dice K and Bucholtz is a stronger and more experienced group than our Jays starters.

Baltimore has improved their pitching staff because they have added an established closer in Kevin Gregg.

Without doing a complete position by position analysis of our competition in the AL East, I think it is fair to make the following generalizations:

Boston …… Huge upgrdade
New York …. Status quo
Tampa ……. Big downgrade
Toronto ….. Slight upgrade
Baltimore … Big upgrade (if Derrick Lee signs)

As usual, however, it all comes down to pitching, and the Jays are
rolling the dice with a very shaky pitching staff at present. I realize that the Yankees look vulnerable with their starters, but their relief corps is superb, even without the possible addition of Soriano as a setup for Rivera. Boston is deep in pitching and the Orioles have also improved. Only Tampa Bay has taken a few steps backwards.

So can the Jays contend in 2011? I don’t think so, but as I stated in a previous post a month or so ago, I don’t mind waiting until 2012 or 2013, and I think that is how AA and company are thinking.
After he can rid himself of the atrocious Vernon Wells contract, I think you will see the new look Blue Jays emerge as a true AL East contender.

Another sign to watch for, if you feel AA is serious about contending this season or next, is how he handles the Jose Bautista situation. Watch carefully how this develops over the next few months.

Furthermore, a comparison of offense in terms of defensive positioning does not make much sense. If you wanted to do an analysis this way you should have added the totals of two players splitting time (i.e. Snider and Lewis or Yunel and Gonzalez) and then done your comparison for this coming year.

I think a better analysis would come from an evaluation based on batting order. Your comparison claims to be an argument on their lineup, but by the end withers to a comparison of both offense and defense.

Take a quick look at the lineup from last year with possible replacements this year: (replacement in brackets afterwards)

Fred Lewis, LF (Davis)
Alex Gonzalez, SS / Yunel Escobar, SS (Yunel)
Jose Bautista, RF (Bautista)
Vernon Wells, CF (Wells)
Adam Lind, DH (Lind)
Aaron Hill, 2B (Hill)
John Buck, C (Arrencibia)
Lyle Overbay, 1B (Snider)
Edwin Encarnacion, 3B (Encarnacion)

The differences are obvious.Arrencibia replaces Buck, Davis replaces Lewis, and we get full seasons of Yunel and Snider. That’s it, the rest of any offensive changes comes from improved/worse season from a player who contributed all of last year. One expects Hill and Lind to improve. I also expect Bautista to have a good season, but to seriously decline from his 54HRs. The other holdover that I’m unsure of is Wells, but hopefully he can repeat ’10.

I doubt this ends up as the actual lineup, but what it shows is that the Jays lineup is too uncertain to form any kind of prediction for next year. Hill, Lind, Snider, Wells, Bautista are all looking to prove they can be consistently good. Arrencibia and Snider have yet to play everyday at the major league level. Lastly, with Encarnacion and Davis we seemingly know what we will get, lots of streaky power and speed on the base paths respectively. However, I believe it is widely accepted that the Jays’ offensive success next season does not rely on either of these two players.

Therefore, I agree there is POTENTIAL for the Jays to have a great offensive lineup, but to make any predictions for this inconsistent and unproven group is hasty.

I don’t think Davis will be manning LF as Snider is currently slotted in there. If you believe in a Snider breakout season, a combo of Snider/Davis could be a perfect fit for the Jays in ’11 and just as productive in comparison (because of that fit) to the Bautista/Snider-Lewis combo from last season. Will the Jays miss Jose’s arm? For sure, but Travis’s range is great and he should do well enough out there.

Agree entirely about the continuing to mash and the OBP!

Overall – I think our OBP will still be too low to be a true contender – but we’ll continue to mash – and continue to be very entertaining with a fringe shot at the Cupie Doll.