@Steve: the Jays are definitely not in rebuild mode. They are ready to compete at a high level today and I would say they are building for a championship run within the next few years. I agree that the thought process changed while JP was still around, but that’s because everything he had done before that was never enough to bring the Jays to that next level. His strategy just didn’t work in terms of getting a big enough group of top-talent together to make a run. As for the Godfrey and Beaston influences, I can’t say for sure and wouldn’t want to guess. But, I will say that I believe JP lost the confidence of the front office at the very same time as the Jays strategy changed. And 3 years later, without a top 10 pick I might add, the Jays have the 4th best system in the majors. I agree with you that the system should now start producing those missing top players that could have made the Jays 90+ game winners while JP was around.

@Keith: I posted a comparison of the Rays and Jays picks over the last few years and it gives you a very good reason as to why JP’s strategy couldn’t work. Here’s the link:

http://jaysjournal.com/2010/01/21/will-jays-ever-draft-in-top-4-again/

He wouldn’t go over slot for better talent and couldn’t outspend the Yankees or Red Sox. Meanwhile, the Rays were loaded to the brim with top 5 picks from their many years of losing. That’s why the Jays need a guy like AA. He can alter his strategy to fit the Jays situation. Would JP have obtained Miguel Olivo to get himself a sandwich pick? Never. I agree with most of everything you said Steve and am glad you’re enjoying the content! We’ll do our very best to keep it up!

@TammyBeth: You’ve convinced me to do a JP Ricciardi post. It’s going to be a long one, so give it a few weeks before it pops up, but it will be very thorough. I’ll try to point out his lack of motivation in terms of trading and searching the world for top-talent, but will also point out his positives (which many people overlook) such as those you point out in your response – the additions of great picks and producing more MLB players than most other franchises. My point for this post was never to discredit that, it was simply to point out the difference between the cream of the crop in his prospects and those behind them. His strategy led to so few late round finds that the Jays could never supplement their roster by calling up some players to help out, finding the odd gem, or by trading some of those prospects for guys that would have helped them get into the playoffs. It’s not just about the guys you keep. If AA is smart, and I know he is, he’ll be ready and willing to package up some prospects for a top notch player when the time is right. That’s why quantity and quality are important to a franchise like the Jays, not just quality. If they don’t have both, they would be forced to wait to “get lucky” and the stars to align just to get into the playoffs. Instead, AA is trying to accumulate enough long term stars in each position so that he can trade some of his newly drafted and well thought of guys in return for the required pieces to become a powerhouse.

Breath – haha

What it all comes down to is that JP worked hard to get a winning Jays MLB club, while AA is working hard to build a strong DSL Blue Jays – GCL Blue Jays – Vancouver Canadians – Lansing Lugnuts – Dunedin Blue Jays – New Hampshire Fishercats – Las Vegas 51s – AND Jays MLB club.

I’ll take the 2nd version every single time if offered the choice.

I wish I could have read your initial post Tammy and thank you for the great response. I’m hoping that our coverage of the top 50 Jays prospects will cheer you up and give you hope for what should become the best group of Jays prospects to ever be accumulated by a Jays GM. No matter how we spin it, that can’t be a bad thing, can it?

@

That said, it would be good to make a note and see if our belief in AA is justified. i.e. After the 2013 off season we should go back and see where our 2010 BA top 30 are.
I know there will be some huge misses, but if AA’s philosophy of going after high ceiling guys is right we should see a distinct change in several fronts:
1 – % on the 40 man roster
2 – MLB regulars

2 things that worry me:
It is evident that we have at least 2 more years (2011 & 2012) before we will see the light at the end of this tunnel. Taking Drabek, Arencibia and even Stewart out as they will likely be regulars in 2010. The best players in our system are at least 1 maybe 2 or more years away: Hechavaria, D’Arnaud, Perez, Gose. I believe the pitching is there, but we don’t have enough of a well balanced attack to compete…. yet. We desperately need some guys with bat skills and a nack for OBP.
Johermyn Chavez could be an impact player…..But I suppose if Morrow becomes a legitimate #1 it was well worth it.

Does anyone know how these stats compare to Tampa’s/ Minnesota’s 2007 draft?
Once again (as usual) well worth the read.

JP was flawed, Alex is WAAAAY better – BUT –

Looking over the available systems in that viewer, including well regarded systems, you can state with confidence that at least 2/3 of ALL those lists are going to fail to be significant major leaguers. Every list I looked at had between 5 and 9 players who were either contributing major leaguers or still considered good prospects. But often on the higher numbers, the major leaguers were fringy guys for the most part (see the Phillies list, for instance)

The difference in a highly regarded system (like the Rockies) and a lowly regarded one (like the Jays) is usually pretty danged marginal.1,2 guys in general.

Last winter, or the year before, I totaled the WAR for all the major leaguers drafted since 2002 and the Jays came out 3rd in the majors. (Surprisingly, the Giants were #1). That might not still be true, but JP gets more criticism than he should on this front, IMO. (although some things, like neglecting the overseas players, are obviously very valid)

My take away from this, though, is as excited as we are now about the Jays farm, 2/3 of the top 30 will likely fail if history is any indication. I find that depressing.

I ain’t doin’ that again.

Sigh. When will I ever learn to copy before i post just in case?

I will repeat this though – Magee has been out of our system since 2009.