Comments on: Top 50 Jays Prospects, Jays Journal Edition: #34 David Cooper

By: Top 50 Jays Prospects, Jays Journal Edition, Reviewed « Jays Journal | A Toronto Blue Jays Blog

Thu, 10 Mar 2011 13:40:37 +0000

[...] #34 – 1B David Cooper – AA New Hampshire – 23 yo – JJ Analysis here. [...]

By: Steve

Steve — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 21:46:38 +0000

This is in reply to Matt’s reply to my submission yesterday and further to my submission at 12:05. I’m having trouble replying directly. Keep getting an error message. The budget during the first 4 or 5 years of JPs tenure was historically the lowest any Jays GM had to work with in relation to avg MLB salary. When Rogers did increase the budget, it came with the expectation that he spend it with the goal being immediate results. Finally, the Wells contract was Godfrey. I don’t care much for JP, but it irks me that people still blame him for that one when it was Godfrey.

By: Steve

Steve — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 17:05:49 +0000

MLB asks all 30 teams not to go over slot and many ignore this request. Some teams receive transfers under the revenue sharing program and so there is added pressure, but still many of them ignore. One team had an agreement whereby they received about $10 million annually to compensate for a low dollar. As part of the agreement, they agreed not to go over slot. JP COULD NOT go over slot. It was JP himself who began publicly questioning whether it was worth it. In 2009, with the agreement no longer in place, JP announce he would go over slot. If I’m not mistaken he did with Jenkins and offered above slot money to Paxton.

By: Mat Germain

Mat Germain — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 15:49:20 +0000

I’m not sure JP had a limited budget from Rogers…he spent millions upon millions signing Wells and Rios to massive extensions, so as long as he had support from them – and trust – he was going to get the money he needed to sign players.

As for the MLB thing – WHO CARES? lol. They “suggest”, or “recommend”, but do we care? I certainly hope not. It’s one thing to have all MLB teams comply and to follow it at that time, but until that happens (never will), the Jays NEED to sign over slot guys to compete in the AL East. The only way that will stop under AA is if a hard cap is put on every single pick – a possibility at some point.

By: chris

chris — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 00:08:34 +0000

the reason why AA has the money for scouting and drafting and all that good stuff and jp didnt is simple….do u see aj burnett? troy glause? frank thomas? ted lilly? lyle overpay? on this jays team? not to mention a rios extention and a just whacko wells extention. JP wasted his money on old washed up players or guys who just arent good enuff to win you 95 games in the rugged AL east. which is what it will take to get us into the playoffs. dont worry bout signing crawford or beltre or whoever…we have our own crawfords brewing down on the farm. thanks to AA for using his money wisely unlike someone, no names…cough… JP Ricciardi… dont worry jays fans when the time is right the moeny will be there to complete the puzzle

go jays go

By: Steve

Steve — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 18:25:09 +0000

As you said, hindsight tells us everything. And in MLB, you need at least 3 years (generally more) before you can judge how successful a player is going to be. As such, the jury is still out on all of AA’s picks but we are far enough along to review Ricciardi’s picks. You can’t judge success by looking at the players drafted ahead or behind a certain player and you also have to take everything in its proper context. In terms of the number of players drafted by Ricciardi who have posted quality MLB numbers in relation to his peers, the results would put Ricciardi near the top. Also, what a lot of people don’t realize is that Ricciardi had a very restrictive budget. He didn’t have the budget for scouting that AA has. He also received pressure from MLB not to go over slot in the draft in exchange for the tranfer payment the Jays were receiving.

By: Steve

Steve — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 18:13:26 +0000

I’ll also play devil’s advocate. I think Ricciardi had a thing for sweet swings. This pick follows in the same mold as the Lind and Snider picks. Also, under Ricciardi the Jays had to make safe picks – pressure from MLB not to go over slot and limited budget from Rogers. This sometimes means not signing the best available player, but the player most likely to sign and follow a quick path to the majors. And, of course, they don’t always work out. Otherwise, great write up on Cooper; some good information that I wasn’t aware of.

By: Jared Macdonald

Jared Macdonald — Sun, 02 Jan 2011 18:37:31 +0000

That’s the great, refreshing part of Alex Anthopoulos’ mindset. He has said from day 1 that’s he is not afraid to take risks and that he will strike out on some, but targeting only the highest-upside players means exactly what you said: even if 25% of them reach their potential there are a few superstars that would emerge.

Also, for what it’s worth regarding the 2008 draft post-David Cooper, it was evident 2002 first-rounder Russ Adams was a clear bust for the Jays (look at that, another J.P. Ricciardi draft pick), so I’d have possibly taken infielder Lonnie Chisenhall (or even injury plagued Reese Havens), who just hit 17 HR and 87 RBI at Double-A as a 21 year old and was ranked as the #31 prospect in MLB prior to 2010 by BA.

That’s the beauty (or annoying part) of the MLB draft. Hindsight makes whatever borderline questionable draft decisions at the time seem even more pathetic years later. Using Russ Adams again (my favorite scenario…), Kazmir, Loney, Cain, and Hamels were all chosen after him.

The Jays seem to have addressed that issue somewhat by employing more scouts, thus getting more looks at players. This won’t guarantee 100% success from every pick, but I feel more at ease just looking at the 2010 draft results for the Jays and the quality there, not to mention the 2011 draft is supposed to be even deeper!

In regards to David Cooper specifically, had the Jays had the beefed up scouting department that they currently have, they could have gotten more looks at Cooper and noticed his flaws in multiple other aspects of the game instead of just being aroused by his bat.

A GM would have to be out of his mind though to draft a 6’0″, 175lb first baseman who hit more for average than power. (Un)fortunately for us Jays fans, J.P. Ricciardi was out of his mind on multiple occasions throughout his tenure with the Jays…

By: Jared Macdonald

Jared Macdonald — Sun, 02 Jan 2011 18:34:47 +0000

Obviously even at the time of the draft Davis would get my vote just because of his 6’4” 200lb frame and his projected decent defense and plus arm, but to play devil’s advocate, it made some sense, on paper, as to why JP took Cooper when he did.

Comparing Davis and Cooper, Cooper had the slightly better college career (excluding Davis’ pitching stats), and had more HR, RBI, and walks, and less strikeouts. Cooper obviously got the edge after his stellar 2008 season in the NYPL too, where Davis struggled. I even found these two interesting quotes at the time courtesy of Baseball America:

” While Castro stood out and Auburn’s David Cooper tore the league apart, fellow first-rounder Ike Davis of Brooklyn went homerless in 215 at-bats.”

“He was just a flop,” an American League scout said [about Davis]. “I don’t know if anyone will have anything good to say about him. He was moping around, just not giving it to you. He wasn’t very aggressive at the plate, and when he strikes out he’s always shocked when he’s called out.”

Obviously we all know now that Cooper struggled from 2009-on and Davis took off and now the Mets’ starting 1B, but that’s the interesting part about prospects and potential/upside…sometimes it’s reached and sometimes it’s not. Another reason why people are so skeptical of their club’s first-round draft picks.

By: Keith

Keith — Sun, 02 Jan 2011 13:12:52 +0000

I know that none of these players have made an impact yet in MLB, but here are a few players who were picked behind Cooper:
Ike Davis – already mentioned
Mike Montgomery
Jake Odorizzi – projected as the centerpiece of the Greinke deal
Casey Kelly – centerpeice of the Gonzalez deal
Josh Feilds – MLB reliever. Could the Jays use one more of those?

Give me any of those over Cooper. I know hintsight is always 20/20, but I think that Cooper will have the same issues at AAA that he had at AA and will likely be one of those 1st rounders that don’t see the light of MLB. I don’t see what JP was excited about when he drafted him. Especially with that glove.
Glad to see AA’s high ceiling philosophy being implemented. We’ll strike out on quite a few, but if just 25% reach their potential we will have great team. versus JP and his selections of average players who still didn’t make it.