On Alvarez and Sanchez. Alvarez is a 20 year old kid in HiA starting to hit the wall. Not at all unexpected. Sanchez has a LOT of filling out to do – as his body changes he’ll have to adapt – personally – I think the kid can – but I see Alvarez much closer than Sanchez and both with quite high upside. Who is actually better? Lets talk in 10 years!

McGuire and Halladay are very different – McGuire is a nearly finished – what you see is what you get – polished college kid. Roy was a green HS kid with a lot to learn and a lot to grow into. Which we know he did.

Jenkins isn’t really falling at all – 2010 is his FIRST pro year. Remember – he didn’t play last year. To me he’s a right handed Romero, Cecil type. Yummy, yummy.

On your conclusion “Great piece though, love it” – On that we are both in 100% agreement.

I know Mcguire is a relatively safe pick and right now he is not projected as top-end rotation but he’s got solid control and could eat innings. But in my opinion, control is very important. As you develop you can refine your pitches or add new pitches but it’s hard to have solid control and even though right now he doesn’t project to be one, I think Mcguire could become one. I’m not comparing Halladay with him but they were both similar prospects when they were drafted.

Jenkins is really starting to fall which is pretty interesting. I was pretty sure he was going to be a very fast riser. I really wish we had drafted someone with higher potential.

Great piece though, love it.

I agree 100% on your general thesis – Goind forward – WOW!

You’ve nailed Drabek and Stewart, on Wojciechowski – it gets more complicated, the guy – like Cecil – was a closer, it’s going to take time for him to make the conversion (adding a reliable 3rd pitch – never a guarantee he can) – and building up his arm to starter strength. However – I alos think he’ll make it and IF everything goes right I predict he could be a strong #2 guy.

I put Alvarez ahead of Syndergaard and Sanchez – both of whom look delicious. Alvarez at 20 in HiA – just to be there is WAY ahead of schedule.

I put Cardona and Estrada together next – both are very talented, gonna be a pleasure watching them grow. I think at least one or even two of Lawrence, Hutchison, Purdy and Nicolino could end up as mid-rotation guys!

Murphy, McGuire and Ehlers I put in a separate catagory – since none has signed. To me Murphy has the best upside, with McGuire next – but while I think he has a mid-rotation max – I was so pissed off we didn’t take Sale that OFer over him – I just can’t stomach the guy (I’d be happy to leave him unsigned and take the 12th overall pick in 2011).

The rest of the guys just aren’t in this crowd – in M(H)O.

The bottom LINE – I REALLY BELIEVE we’ve got at least SIX mid rotation or better studs coming up over the next 1 to 4 years – WOW – SERIOUSLY WOW!

He definitely has found a way to K guys and does have a great walk to K ration, but hitters in HiA are also hitting .287 against him, which tells me he’s inconsistent.

Having said that, Joel could be gaining confidence and wind up being fine as he moves up. He does have a 3.67 ERA with a .264 average against over his last 10, but he still doesn’t break into my top 20 list above because I’m not as confident about his ceiling as I am the ceiling of the others.