Comments on: Brett Wallace and The Doubters http://jaysjournal.com/2010/04/30/brett-wallace-and-the-doubters/ A Toronto Blue Jays Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More Sat, 29 Dec 2012 18:12:28 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4.1 By: Nathaniel Stoltz http://jaysjournal.com/2010/04/30/brett-wallace-and-the-doubters/comment-page-1/#comment-1239 Nathaniel Stoltz Fri, 30 Apr 2010 22:57:48 +0000 http://jaysjournal.com/?p=1449#comment-1239 I wouldn't rush to a 40-HR projection just because of one hot month in one of the 20 most hitter-friendly parks in the minors, and 3 most hitter-friendly in AAA (along with Albuquerque and CSP). Honestly, I think Brian Dopirak is more likely to hit 40 at the big league level than Wallace, although Wallace is a more complete hitter. Then again, as Aaron Hill shows, power can develop late, so power projections are tough to nail down. I ranked Wallace as #42 prospect in baseball last July, FYI. Guess we'll see what happens. I wouldn’t rush to a 40-HR projection just because of one hot month in one of the 20 most hitter-friendly parks in the minors, and 3 most hitter-friendly in AAA (along with Albuquerque and CSP).

Honestly, I think Brian Dopirak is more likely to hit 40 at the big league level than Wallace, although Wallace is a more complete hitter. Then again, as Aaron Hill shows, power can develop late, so power projections are tough to nail down.

I ranked Wallace as #42 prospect in baseball last July, FYI. Guess we’ll see what happens.

]]> By: Mat Germain http://jaysjournal.com/2010/04/30/brett-wallace-and-the-doubters/comment-page-1/#comment-1238 Mat Germain Fri, 30 Apr 2010 22:15:14 +0000 http://jaysjournal.com/?p=1449#comment-1238 I always like the differences in opinion because it makes us look at this from both sides, so that's why I brought it up the way I did. Doig so forced me to re-read what I had said about him in new light and to try to see his flaws, because all hitters have flaws or weaknesses. I still think that in this case you understate Wallace's power. It's not even the end of April and he has 8 already, so I don't think we can say that he would hit only 25 to 30. I actually believe that 40 is within reach so long as MLB pitchers don't have the same luck with getting him out as they do right now with Travis Snider. The difference between Snider and Wallace is that the latter got the chance to grow as a hitter in the minors, whereas Travis was thrown into the fire too early. Therefore, I think Brett will come up at the prudent age, without being rushed into things, and will be more successful off the bat as a result. Hence the Braun comparison I made on Blue Jays Daze. I'm pretty sure we'll get to relive this at some point Nathaniel, it should be fun to review our opinions and see how far off we were! Cheers Mat I always like the differences in opinion because it makes us look at this from both sides, so that’s why I brought it up the way I did. Doig so forced me to re-read what I had said about him in new light and to try to see his flaws, because all hitters have flaws or weaknesses. I still think that in this case you understate Wallace’s power. It’s not even the end of April and he has 8 already, so I don’t think we can say that he would hit only 25 to 30. I actually believe that 40 is within reach so long as MLB pitchers don’t have the same luck with getting him out as they do right now with Travis Snider. The difference between Snider and Wallace is that the latter got the chance to grow as a hitter in the minors, whereas Travis was thrown into the fire too early. Therefore, I think Brett will come up at the prudent age, without being rushed into things, and will be more successful off the bat as a result. Hence the Braun comparison I made on Blue Jays Daze.

I’m pretty sure we’ll get to relive this at some point Nathaniel, it should be fun to review our opinions and see how far off we were!

Cheers

Mat

]]> By: Nathaniel Stoltz http://jaysjournal.com/2010/04/30/brett-wallace-and-the-doubters/comment-page-1/#comment-1235 Nathaniel Stoltz Fri, 30 Apr 2010 18:51:54 +0000 http://jaysjournal.com/?p=1449#comment-1235 Hey Mat, Just thought I'd put my comments in context a bit... I don't think it's fair to say Wallace was all that young for his levels last year. Sure, the majority of AAA players are older than 23, but the majority of top prospects are in the 22-24 range. When I talk about age relative to level, I'm usually comparing a prospect to other legit prospects, not everyone at the level. Sure, I was a bit worried about Wallace coming into the year. Not that he wouldn't be a good player, but I just didn't see why everyone thought he was a top prospect. Bat-only guys tend to need to slug over .500 to be "top prospects," and Wallace wasn't doing that, so I was puzzled as to what the fuss was about. Obviously, he's taking a big step toward eliminating my concerns, hence his inclusion on Hot Shots this week. I do worry about that environment in Las Vegas inflating his numbers, however. I see Wallace in his peak as an Aubrey Huff sort of player without the defensive flexibility. A potential .300 hitter with 25-30 homer power, but not a perennial All-Star or a guy that's going to age especially well. But hey, the great thing about prospects is how many different ways you can analyze a player. No matter how good we get at it, sometimes we're going to be wrong. Time will tell. Hope that clears it up... -Nathaniel Hey Mat,

Just thought I’d put my comments in context a bit…

I don’t think it’s fair to say Wallace was all that young for his levels last year. Sure, the majority of AAA players are older than 23, but the majority of top prospects are in the 22-24 range. When I talk about age relative to level, I’m usually comparing a prospect to other legit prospects, not everyone at the level.

Sure, I was a bit worried about Wallace coming into the year. Not that he wouldn’t be a good player, but I just didn’t see why everyone thought he was a top prospect. Bat-only guys tend to need to slug over .500 to be “top prospects,” and Wallace wasn’t doing that, so I was puzzled as to what the fuss was about.

Obviously, he’s taking a big step toward eliminating my concerns, hence his inclusion on Hot Shots this week. I do worry about that environment in Las Vegas inflating his numbers, however.

I see Wallace in his peak as an Aubrey Huff sort of player without the defensive flexibility. A potential .300 hitter with 25-30 homer power, but not a perennial All-Star or a guy that’s going to age especially well.

But hey, the great thing about prospects is how many different ways you can analyze a player. No matter how good we get at it, sometimes we’re going to be wrong. Time will tell.

Hope that clears it up…

-Nathaniel

]]>